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BWXT or FTAI or HII
Which Stock Would AI Choose? BWX Technologies (BWXT) vs. FTAI Aviation (FTAI) vs. Huntington Ingalls Industries (HII) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- BWXT has delivered strong recent performance with Q4 2025 earnings beats, a record $7.4 billion backlog, and YTD gains around 25%, driven by nuclear components demand.
- FTAI shows explosive growth in aviation leasing and aerospace products, raising 2026 EBITDA guidance to $1.625 billion and dividend, with shares up over 160% in the past year despite short-term volatility.
- HII leads in momentum with YTD returns exceeding 30% and 1-year gains near 160%, supported by robust Q4 revenue growth and shipbuilding throughput improvements.
- All three benefit from aerospace and defense tailwinds, but FTAI trades at elevated valuations amid rapid expansion, while BWXT and HII offer government contract stability.
- Recent market activity highlights sector strength, with AI trading bots achieving up to 124% annualized returns in aerospace and defense strategies.
- Relative performance favors HII for momentum, but backlogs and guidance suggest balanced opportunities across the trio.
Introduction
This comparison examines BWXT, FTAI, and HII, three prominent players in the aerospace, defense, and aviation sectors. These stocks have garnered attention amid rising geopolitical tensions, nuclear energy interest, and aviation recovery. Investors seeking exposure to defense contracting, nuclear technology, and aircraft engine leasing will find value in analyzing their recent market positioning, earnings momentum, and growth drivers. With backlogs swelling and EBITDA guidance expanding, this stock comparison highlights relative performance and sector dynamics for informed trading decisions.
BWXT Overview and Recent Performance
BWXT, or BWX Technologies, Inc., specializes in nuclear components and fuel for U.S. naval reactors and commercial applications. In recent quarters, the company reported Q4 2025 revenues of $885.8 million, surpassing estimates by 5.3%, with adjusted EPS of $1.08 beating consensus by 22.2%. Full-year backlog reached a record $7.4 billion, up 119% year-over-year, fueled by defense contracts for uranium enrichment and microreactors like Project Pele. Shares have gained approximately 25% YTD and nearly 100% over the past year, reflecting nuclear demand from AI power needs and national security. Sentiment remains positive post-earnings, with 2026 guidance initiated amid stable government operations, though elevated P/E ratios around 54x signal premium valuation sensitivity.
FTAI Overview and Recent Performance
FTAI, FTAI Aviation Ltd., focuses on aviation leasing, engine maintenance, and aerospace products, particularly CFM56 and V2500 engines. Recent market activity saw Q4 2025 adjusted EBITDA of $277.2 million, up 10% year-over-year, with full-year figures at $1.2 billion, a 38% increase. The company raised its 2026 EBITDA outlook by $100 million to $1.625 billion and dividend to $0.40 per share. Shares have surged over 160% in the past year and 32% YTD, driven by strong leasing demand and power generation initiatives for AI data centers. Despite recent weekly pullbacks amid broader market volatility, robust aerospace tailwinds and an asset-light model shift bolster sentiment, though high growth introduces execution risks.
HII Overview and Recent Performance
HII, Huntington Ingalls Industries, Inc., is the largest U.S. military shipbuilder, producing nuclear-powered carriers, submarines, and amphibious vessels. In recent weeks, Q4 2025 revenues hit $3.48 billion, up 15.7% and beating estimates by 13.7%, with EPS of $4.04 exceeding forecasts by 8.6%. Full-year sales reached $12.48 billion, up 8.2%. Shares have outperformed with over 30% YTD gains and approximately 160% over the past year, propelled by improved shipyard throughput, hiring, and 2026 guidance for 15% revenue growth. Defense budget priorities and backlog strength drive positive sentiment, tempered by supply chain challenges like rare earth materials.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
BWXT, FTAI, and HII operate in overlapping aerospace and defense realms but diverge in focus: BWXT on nuclear components with 80% government revenue and a $7.4 billion backlog; FTAI on commercial aviation leasing with rapid EBITDA growth; HII on shipbuilding with multi-year naval contracts. Growth drivers include BWXT’s microreactors, FTAI’s engine MRO and AI power, and HII’s submarine production. Recent momentum favors HII (30%+ YTD) over BWXT (25%) and FTAI (32% but volatile). Risks encompass BWXT’s high P/E (54x), FTAI’s execution in asset shifts, and HII’s supply constraints. Sector exposure ties to defense spending, with BWXT and HII offering stability versus FTAI’s commercial cyclicality. Valuation sensitivity is highest for BWXT at premiums over peers, while sentiment reflects nuclear and shipbuilding catalysts.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Tickeron’s AI currently favors HII due to superior recent momentum, with over 30% YTD gains and consistent earnings beats amid expanding shipbuilding throughput. Its relative positioning in naval defense, coupled with probabilistic outperformance in aerospace bots (up to 124% returns), edges out BWXT’s backlog strength and FTAI’s growth volatility. Trend consistency and catalysts like 2026 guidance suggest higher near-term probability for HII in the current environment.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer. Disclaimers and Limitations
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
BWXT’s FA Score shows that 3 FA rating(s) are green whileFTAI’s FA Score has 2 green FA rating(s), and HII’s FA Score reflects 3 green FA rating(s).
- BWXT’s FA Score: 3 green, 2 red.
- FTAI’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
- HII’s FA Score: 3 green, 2 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
BWXT’s TA Score shows that 6 TA indicator(s) are bullish while FTAI’s TA Score has 5 bullish TA indicator(s), and HII’s TA Score reflects 5 bullish TA indicator(s).
- BWXT’s TA Score: 6 bullish, 3 bearish.
- FTAI’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 4 bearish.
- HII’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 5 bearish.
Price Growth
BWXT (@Aerospace & Defense) experienced а +6.79% price change this week, while FTAI (@Finance/Rental/Leasing) price change was +3.60% , and HII (@Aerospace & Defense) price fluctuated -0.56% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Aerospace & Defense industry was +4.88%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +0.84%, and the average quarterly price growth was +27.47%.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Finance/Rental/Leasing industry was +8.81%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +11.35%, and the average quarterly price growth was +14.53%.
Reported Earning Dates
BWXT is expected to report earnings on May 04, 2026.
FTAI is expected to report earnings on Apr 29, 2026.
HII is expected to report earnings on Apr 30, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Aerospace & Defense (+4.88% weekly)Aerospace & Defense is one of largest industries in the U.S., mainly comprising the following areas: commercial airliners, military aircraft, missiles, space, and general aviation. Focused heavily on research & development, it is also one of the fastest growing industries. Military aircraft has the largest market share in the industry’s sales, followed by space systems, civil aircraft, and missiles. Aerospace exports, directly and indirectly, support more jobs than the export of any other commodity, according to a study by the U.S. Department of Commerce. Boeing Company, Lockheed Martin Corporation and General Electric Company are some of the most prominent players in this space.
@Finance/Rental/Leasing (+8.81% weekly)A leasing company (e.g. United Rentals, Inc. ) is typically the legal owner of the asset for the duration of the lease, while the lessee has operating control over the asset while also having some share of the economic risks and returns from the change in the valuation of the underlying asset. Per capita disposable income and corporate earnings or cash flow could be some of the critical metrics for this business – the higher the values of these metrics, the potentially greater ability of consumers/businesses to afford apartments/office spaces for rent. Other finance companies include credit/debit card payment processing companies (e.g. Visa Inc. and Mastercard), private label credit cards providers (e.g. Synchrony Financial) and automobile finance companies (e.g. Credit Acceptance Corporation).
| BWXT | FTAI | HII | |
| Capitalization | 21B | 25.8B | 15.5B |
| EBITDA | 552M | 1.12B | 1.21B |
| Gain YTD | 33.006 | 27.937 | 16.341 |
| P/E Ratio | 64.13 | 54.66 | 25.63 |
| Revenue | 3.2B | 2.51B | 12.5B |
| Total Cash | N/A | N/A | 774M |
| Total Debt | 2.02B | 3.45B | 2.92B |
BWXT | FTAI | HII | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 22 | 66 | 70 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 96 Overvalued | 85 Overvalued | 16 Undervalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 7 | 16 | 30 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 33 | 10 | 59 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 39 | 40 | 41 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 13 | 100 | 15 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 65 | 85 | 65 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
HII's Valuation (16) in the Aerospace And Defense industry is significantly better than the same rating for FTAI (85) in the Investment Managers industry, and is significantly better than the same rating for BWXT (96) in the Aerospace And Defense industry. This means that HII's stock grew significantly faster than FTAI’s and significantly faster than BWXT’s over the last 12 months.
BWXT's Profit vs Risk Rating (7) in the Aerospace And Defense industry is in the same range as FTAI (16) in the Investment Managers industry, and is in the same range as HII (30) in the Aerospace And Defense industry. This means that BWXT's stock grew similarly to FTAI’s and similarly to HII’s over the last 12 months.
FTAI's SMR Rating (10) in the Investment Managers industry is in the same range as BWXT (33) in the Aerospace And Defense industry, and is somewhat better than the same rating for HII (59) in the Aerospace And Defense industry. This means that FTAI's stock grew similarly to BWXT’s and somewhat faster than HII’s over the last 12 months.
BWXT's Price Growth Rating (39) in the Aerospace And Defense industry is in the same range as FTAI (40) in the Investment Managers industry, and is in the same range as HII (41) in the Aerospace And Defense industry. This means that BWXT's stock grew similarly to FTAI’s and similarly to HII’s over the last 12 months.
BWXT's P/E Growth Rating (13) in the Aerospace And Defense industry is in the same range as HII (15) in the Aerospace And Defense industry, and is significantly better than the same rating for FTAI (100) in the Investment Managers industry. This means that BWXT's stock grew similarly to HII’s and significantly faster than FTAI’s over the last 12 months.
| BWXT | FTAI | HII | |
|---|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | N/A | 2 days ago 73% | 2 days ago 64% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 57% | 2 days ago 87% | 2 days ago 55% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 64% | 2 days ago 89% | 2 days ago 59% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 67% | 2 days ago 81% | 2 days ago 71% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 69% | 2 days ago 86% | 2 days ago 54% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 71% | 2 days ago 73% | 2 days ago 53% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 6 days ago 68% | 11 days ago 88% | 6 days ago 61% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 55% | 2 days ago 61% | 2 days ago 54% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 52% | 2 days ago 64% | 2 days ago 56% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 67% | N/A | 2 days ago 51% |
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BWXT and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, BWXT has been closely correlated with CW. These tickers have moved in lockstep 79% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if BWXT jumps, then CW could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To BWXT | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BWXT | 100% | -0.31% | ||
| CW - BWXT | 79% Closely correlated | +0.44% | ||
| HWM - BWXT | 54% Loosely correlated | -0.55% | ||
| KTOS - BWXT | 53% Loosely correlated | +2.94% | ||
| AIR - BWXT | 53% Loosely correlated | -1.80% | ||
| MRCY - BWXT | 52% Loosely correlated | +0.47% | ||
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FTAI and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, FTAI has been loosely correlated with AL. These tickers have moved in lockstep 47% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if FTAI jumps, then AL could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To FTAI | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FTAI | 100% | -1.47% | ||
| AL - FTAI | 47% Loosely correlated | N/A | ||
| BBDC - FTAI | 46% Loosely correlated | N/A | ||
| AER - FTAI | 40% Loosely correlated | +0.18% | ||
| UPBD - FTAI | 37% Loosely correlated | -0.59% | ||
| COF - FTAI | 36% Loosely correlated | -0.89% | ||
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HII and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, HII has been loosely correlated with LHX. These tickers have moved in lockstep 62% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if HII jumps, then LHX could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To HII | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HII | 100% | -2.22% | ||
| LHX - HII | 62% Loosely correlated | -1.22% | ||
| GD - HII | 61% Loosely correlated | -2.09% | ||
| KTOS - HII | 55% Loosely correlated | +2.94% | ||
| CW - HII | 53% Loosely correlated | +0.44% | ||
| KRMN - HII | 51% Loosely correlated | -2.02% | ||
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