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BWXT or FTAI or JOBY
Which Stock Would AI Choose? BWX Technologies (BWXT) vs. FTAI Aviation (FTAI) vs. Joby Aviation (JOBY) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- BWXT demonstrates strong stability with ~14% YTD gains and 89-96% one-year returns, backed by robust Q4 2025 earnings and nuclear sector demand.
- FTAI leads in growth momentum, boasting 32% YTD and over 166% one-year performance, fueled by aviation leasing expansion and raised 2026 EBITDA guidance.
- JOBY faces volatility with negative YTD returns (~-27%) despite 44-55% one-year gains, reflecting eVTOL development risks amid partnerships like Uber.
- All three operate in aerospace/defense-adjacent spaces, but BWXT and FTAI show profitability while JOBY remains pre-revenue.
- Market caps: BWXT ~$18B, FTAI ~$28B, JOBY ~$9B, highlighting scale differences in relative performance.
Introduction
This stock comparison evaluates BWXT, FTAI, and JOBY amid rising interest in aerospace, defense, and aviation infrastructure. These companies span nuclear components for defense, engine leasing, and electric air mobility, offering exposure to government contracts, commercial aviation recovery, and urban air transport innovation. Traders seeking momentum plays may eye growth leaders, while long-term investors could prioritize stability and profitability in a market favoring industrials and emerging tech. Recent earnings beats and sector tailwinds provide context for relative performance and market positioning.
BWXT Overview and Recent Performance
BWXT, or BWX Technologies, Inc., specializes in nuclear components for U.S. naval reactors and commercial power, operating in government and commercial segments. In recent market activity, shares traded around $195, reflecting resilience after Q4 2025 results with $885.8M revenue (up 18.7% YoY) and non-GAAP EPS of $1.08, beating estimates. Full-year 2025 adjusted EBITDA hit $574.3M, with 2026 guidance initiated amid defense contracts and nuclear demand. Sentiment benefits from backlog growth to $7.4B and appointments like Chief Digital Officer, though insider sales noted. YTD gains near 14% and 89-96% one-year returns underscore steady momentum in aerospace/defense.
FTAI Overview and Recent Performance
FTAI, FTAI Aviation Ltd., focuses on owning, leasing, and selling aircraft engines and parts, with segments in aviation leasing and aerospace products. Recent weeks saw shares near $260, up on Q4 2025 adjusted EBITDA of $277.2M (up 10% YoY) and full-year $1.2B (up 38%), prompting a dividend hike to $0.40 and 2026 EBITDA guidance to $1.625B. Owning 290 assets including engines drives performance amid aviation demand. YTD returns exceed 32%, with 166% one-year gains, though recent pullbacks reflect volatility. Strong execution in aftermarket services bolsters positive sentiment.
JOBY Overview and Recent Performance
JOBY, Joby Aviation, Inc., develops electric vertical takeoff and landing (eVTOL) aircraft for air taxi services, targeting urban mobility. Shares hover around $9.50-$10, pressured by Q4 2025 adjusted loss of $0.20/share matching estimates but with $30.83M revenue topping forecasts. Operating expenses rose on R&D, while partnerships like Uber for Dubai air taxis and Blade acquisition advance commercialization. YTD declines near -27% contrast 44-55% one-year gains, with high cash burn and pre-revenue status weighing on sentiment amid certification progress.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
BWXT anchors in stable government nuclear contracts, contrasting FTAI’s commercial aviation leasing growth and JOBY’s speculative eVTOL model. Growth drivers: BWXT’s $7.4B backlog vs. FTAI’s EBITDA trajectory and JOBY’s partnerships. Recent momentum favors FTAI (166% 1Y) over BWXT (89-96%) and JOBY (44-55%), but BWXT/FTAI offer profitability (PE ~55x/56x) unlike JOBY’s losses. Risks: BWXT’s valuation sensitivity (PB 14-15x), FTAI’s cyclical leasing, JOBY’s regulatory hurdles. Sector exposure ties to aerospace resurgence, with BWXT least volatile (beta 0.8), FTAI high-growth, JOBY highest risk/reward. Sentiment leans profitable plays amid industrials strength.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Tickeron’s AI currently favors FTAI for its superior trend consistency, earnings momentum, and alignment with aviation/industrials bots posting 70-80% win rates. BWXT offers stability via defense catalysts, while JOBY lags on profitability despite eVTOL potential. Probabilistic edge to FTAI in near-term relative positioning.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer. Disclaimers and Limitations
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
BWXT’s FA Score shows that 3 FA rating(s) are green whileFTAI’s FA Score has 2 green FA rating(s), and JOBY’s FA Score reflects 0 green FA rating(s).
- BWXT’s FA Score: 3 green, 2 red.
- FTAI’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
- JOBY’s FA Score: 0 green, 5 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
BWXT’s TA Score shows that 6 TA indicator(s) are bullish while FTAI’s TA Score has 5 bullish TA indicator(s), and JOBY’s TA Score reflects 4 bullish TA indicator(s).
- BWXT’s TA Score: 6 bullish, 4 bearish.
- FTAI’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 5 bearish.
- JOBY’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 4 bearish.
Price Growth
BWXT (@Aerospace & Defense) experienced а -1.97% price change this week, while FTAI (@Finance/Rental/Leasing) price change was -1.51% , and JOBY (@Air Freight/Couriers) price fluctuated +7.28% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Aerospace & Defense industry was +1.71%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +10.37%, and the average quarterly price growth was +29.41%.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Finance/Rental/Leasing industry was +6.42%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +31.13%, and the average quarterly price growth was +26.37%.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Air Freight/Couriers industry was +0.87%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +2.66%, and the average quarterly price growth was +1.68%.
Reported Earning Dates
BWXT is expected to report earnings on May 04, 2026.
FTAI is expected to report earnings on Apr 29, 2026.
JOBY is expected to report earnings on May 13, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Aerospace & Defense (+1.71% weekly)Aerospace & Defense is one of largest industries in the U.S., mainly comprising the following areas: commercial airliners, military aircraft, missiles, space, and general aviation. Focused heavily on research & development, it is also one of the fastest growing industries. Military aircraft has the largest market share in the industry’s sales, followed by space systems, civil aircraft, and missiles. Aerospace exports, directly and indirectly, support more jobs than the export of any other commodity, according to a study by the U.S. Department of Commerce. Boeing Company, Lockheed Martin Corporation and General Electric Company are some of the most prominent players in this space.
@Finance/Rental/Leasing (+6.42% weekly)A leasing company (e.g. United Rentals, Inc. ) is typically the legal owner of the asset for the duration of the lease, while the lessee has operating control over the asset while also having some share of the economic risks and returns from the change in the valuation of the underlying asset. Per capita disposable income and corporate earnings or cash flow could be some of the critical metrics for this business – the higher the values of these metrics, the potentially greater ability of consumers/businesses to afford apartments/office spaces for rent. Other finance companies include credit/debit card payment processing companies (e.g. Visa Inc. and Mastercard), private label credit cards providers (e.g. Synchrony Financial) and automobile finance companies (e.g. Credit Acceptance Corporation).
@Air Freight/Couriers (+0.87% weekly)The Air Freight/Couriers industry operates air transportation and recurring delivery services. This includes companies offering same-day deliveries, scheduled delivery and logistical services. The proliferation of e-commerce/online retail with a growing emphasis on faster delivery has expanded opportunities for this industry, and induced more competition. United Parcel Service, Inc., FedEx Corporation and Expeditors International of Washington, Inc. are some of the major companies in this industry.
| BWXT | FTAI | JOBY | |
| Capitalization | 20.9B | 26.4B | 8.95B |
| EBITDA | 552M | 1.12B | -679.43M |
| Gain YTD | 32.235 | 31.057 | -30.758 |
| P/E Ratio | 63.75 | 55.99 | N/A |
| Revenue | 3.2B | 2.51B | 53.4M |
| Total Cash | N/A | N/A | 1.41B |
| Total Debt | 2.02B | 3.45B | 36.8M |
BWXT | FTAI | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 16 | 8 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 95 Overvalued | 85 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 8 | 15 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 33 | 10 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 40 | 38 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 14 | 99 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | n/a | 65 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
FTAI's Valuation (85) in the Investment Managers industry is in the same range as BWXT (95) in the Aerospace And Defense industry. This means that FTAI’s stock grew similarly to BWXT’s over the last 12 months.
BWXT's Profit vs Risk Rating (8) in the Aerospace And Defense industry is in the same range as FTAI (15) in the Investment Managers industry. This means that BWXT’s stock grew similarly to FTAI’s over the last 12 months.
FTAI's SMR Rating (10) in the Investment Managers industry is in the same range as BWXT (33) in the Aerospace And Defense industry. This means that FTAI’s stock grew similarly to BWXT’s over the last 12 months.
FTAI's Price Growth Rating (38) in the Investment Managers industry is in the same range as BWXT (40) in the Aerospace And Defense industry. This means that FTAI’s stock grew similarly to BWXT’s over the last 12 months.
BWXT's P/E Growth Rating (14) in the Aerospace And Defense industry is significantly better than the same rating for FTAI (99) in the Investment Managers industry. This means that BWXT’s stock grew significantly faster than FTAI’s over the last 12 months.
| BWXT | FTAI | JOBY | |
|---|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 57% | 6 days ago 73% | 1 day ago 82% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 61% | 1 day ago 56% | 1 day ago 82% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 73% | 1 day ago 89% | 1 day ago 84% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 73% | 1 day ago 85% | 1 day ago 80% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 55% | 1 day ago 63% | 1 day ago 78% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 71% | 1 day ago 85% | 1 day ago 84% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 7 days ago 69% | 7 days ago 88% | 6 days ago 78% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 12 days ago 55% | 12 days ago 61% | 23 days ago 82% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 52% | 1 day ago 64% | 1 day ago 84% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 67% | 1 day ago 87% | 1 day ago 88% |
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| QUBX | 14.82 | 0.87 | +6.24% |
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BWXT and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, BWXT has been closely correlated with CW. These tickers have moved in lockstep 79% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if BWXT jumps, then CW could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To BWXT | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BWXT | 100% | -3.20% | ||
| CW - BWXT | 79% Closely correlated | -0.77% | ||
| MRCY - BWXT | 52% Loosely correlated | +0.08% | ||
| KTOS - BWXT | 50% Loosely correlated | -1.63% | ||
| HWM - BWXT | 49% Loosely correlated | -0.03% | ||
| AIR - BWXT | 49% Loosely correlated | -0.87% | ||
More | ||||
FTAI and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, FTAI has been loosely correlated with AL. These tickers have moved in lockstep 47% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if FTAI jumps, then AL could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To FTAI | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FTAI | 100% | -0.61% | ||
| AL - FTAI | 47% Loosely correlated | N/A | ||
| BBDC - FTAI | 46% Loosely correlated | +0.78% | ||
| AER - FTAI | 40% Loosely correlated | -0.68% | ||
| UPBD - FTAI | 37% Loosely correlated | N/A | ||
| COF - FTAI | 36% Loosely correlated | -0.37% | ||
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