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BZH or KBH or TOL
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Beazer Homes USA (BZH) vs. KB Home (KBH) vs. Toll Brothers (TOL) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- Toll Brothers (TOL), the largest by market cap at $12.8 billion, demonstrates resilience through ongoing community expansions and strong quarterly results, contrasting with peers' recent challenges.
- Beazer Homes USA (BZH) reported a Q2 fiscal 2026 net loss and revenue drop of 27.5%, triggering a sharp stock decline in recent trading sessions.+Stock+Falls+on+Q2+2026+Earnings)
- KB Home (KBH) trades at a low trailing P/E of 9.93 with positive year-to-date returns of 8.44%, positioning it as a value play in the sector.
- All three stocks have pulled back in recent weeks amid broader homebuilding sector pressures, but TOL shows superior scale and analyst upside potential with a $169.80 average target.
- Year-to-date, BZH leads with 11.22% gains despite volatility, while TOL remains flat at 0.20%.
Introduction
Beazer Homes USA (BZH), KB Home (KBH), and Toll Brothers (TOL) are prominent players in the U.S. homebuilding sector, designing and constructing single-family homes amid fluctuating interest rates and housing demand. This comparison analyzes their recent market performance, business models, and positioning, aiding traders seeking short-term momentum and investors evaluating long-term sector exposure. With homebuilders sensitive to mortgage rates and economic indicators, understanding relative strengths helps in portfolio allocation during volatile market conditions.
BZH Overview and Recent Performance
Beazer Homes USA (BZH) focuses on energy-efficient single-family homes targeting entry-level and move-up buyers in the Sun Belt and Southeast regions. In recent market activity, the stock has experienced heightened volatility, trading around $18 with a 52-week range of $17.89 to $28.33. Year-to-date returns stand at 11.22%, but shares dropped sharply over 12% following Q2 fiscal 2026 results, which revealed revenue of $409.8 million (down 27.5% year-over-year) and a net loss.+Stock+Falls+on+Q2+2026+Earnings) Sentiment has been pressured by macroeconomic challenges like elevated rates, though analysts maintain an average target of $25.67, suggesting potential recovery if housing demand stabilizes.
KBH Overview and Recent Performance
KB Home (KBH) specializes in entry-level homes for first-time buyers, operating nationwide with an emphasis on affordability and customization. Recent weeks have seen shares trade near $51.44, down about 3% in a session, within a 52-week range of $48.17 to $68.71. The stock has delivered 8.44% year-to-date gains, supported by a trailing P/E ratio of 9.93 and EPS of $5.18 (TTM). Q1 2026 results showed revenues of $1.39 billion, though a slight EPS miss tempered enthusiasm. Market sentiment reflects caution amid sector headwinds, with an average analyst target of $55.46.
TOL Overview and Recent Performance
Toll Brothers (TOL) builds luxury detached homes and condominiums, catering to affluent buyers across 24 states. Shares have hovered around $135 in recent trading, down 3.5% amid broader sector weakness, with a 52-week range of $100.92 to $168.36 and flat year-to-date returns of 0.20%. Strong fundamentals shine through, with trailing P/E at 9.69, EPS of $13.93 (TTM), and market cap of $12.8 billion. Recent activity includes multiple grand openings and an acquisition, signaling robust demand; Q1 fiscal 2026 delivered $2.15 billion in revenue. Analysts project an average target of $169.80.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
In business models, TOL differentiates via luxury focus (higher margins, less rate sensitivity) compared to BZH and KBH’s entry-level emphasis, exposing the latter to affordability pressures. Growth drivers favor TOL with aggressive expansions versus peers’ revenue contractions. Recent momentum shows all declining, but BZH most acutely post-earnings. Risk factors include interest rate exposure (beta ~1.4-1.5) and inventory levels, with TOL’s scale buffering volatility. Valuations appear attractive across the board (forward P/E 11-16), though KBH leads on trailing multiples. Sentiment tilts positive for TOL amid project announcements.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Tickeron’s AI models would likely favor Toll Brothers (TOL) in the current environment, given its trend consistency, larger scale, active catalysts like community launches, and relative stability versus BZH’s earnings setback and KBH’s modest momentum. Probability leans toward outperformance in a recovering housing cycle, though sector risks persist.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer. Disclaimers and Limitations
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
BZH’s FA Score shows that 1 FA rating(s) are green whileKBH’s FA Score has 2 green FA rating(s), and TOL’s FA Score reflects 1 green FA rating(s).
- BZH’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- KBH’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
- TOL’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
BZH’s TA Score shows that 7 TA indicator(s) are bullish while KBH’s TA Score has 4 bullish TA indicator(s), and TOL’s TA Score reflects 4 bullish TA indicator(s).
- BZH’s TA Score: 7 bullish, 3 bearish.
- KBH’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 4 bearish.
- TOL’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 5 bearish.
Price Growth
BZH (@Homebuilding) experienced а +39.55% price change this week, while KBH (@Homebuilding) price change was +0.05% , and TOL (@Homebuilding) price fluctuated +0.07% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Homebuilding industry was -0.03%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -0.96%, and the average quarterly price growth was -6.69%.
Reported Earning Dates
BZH is expected to report earnings on Jul 30, 2026.
KBH is expected to report earnings on Jun 24, 2026.
TOL is expected to report earnings on May 19, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Homebuilding (-0.03% weekly)Homebuilding includes companies residential home construction companies, renovators and repair firms. The companies may be building single-family or multifamily homes, condominiums or mobile homes. Over the five years to 2019, the Home Builders industry is estimated to have grown at an annualized rate of 2.5% to reach $89.4 billion, (including expected growth of 2.6% in 2019), according to a study by IbisWorld. After having suffered one of its worst crises a decade ago during the last macroeconomic recession–which had much of its origins in U.S. real estate – the homebuilding industry has been recovering steadily so far. Higher disposable incomes and improving economic activity have bolstered consumers’ purchases of homes. While revenue of the Home Builders industry remains well below its prerecession high, demand growth estimates show promise.
| BZH | KBH | TOL | |
| Capitalization | 688M | 3B | 12.8B |
| EBITDA | -11.12M | 470M | 1.8B |
| Gain YTD | 24.124 | -14.360 | 0.319 |
| P/E Ratio | 74.45 | 9.24 | 9.70 |
| Revenue | 2.11B | 5.92B | 11.3B |
| Total Cash | 116M | 202M | 1.2B |
| Total Debt | 1.25B | 1.92B | 2.85B |
BZH | KBH | TOL | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 19 | 11 | 18 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 98 Overvalued | 26 Undervalued | 76 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 84 | 92 | 48 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 90 | 74 | 51 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 83 | 79 | 54 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 1 | 22 | 25 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 75 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
KBH's Valuation (26) in the Homebuilding industry is somewhat better than the same rating for TOL (76) and is significantly better than the same rating for BZH (98). This means that KBH's stock grew somewhat faster than TOL’s and significantly faster than BZH’s over the last 12 months.
TOL's Profit vs Risk Rating (48) in the Homebuilding industry is somewhat better than the same rating for BZH (84) and is somewhat better than the same rating for KBH (92). This means that TOL's stock grew somewhat faster than BZH’s and somewhat faster than KBH’s over the last 12 months.
TOL's SMR Rating (51) in the Homebuilding industry is in the same range as KBH (74) and is somewhat better than the same rating for BZH (90). This means that TOL's stock grew similarly to KBH’s and somewhat faster than BZH’s over the last 12 months.
TOL's Price Growth Rating (54) in the Homebuilding industry is in the same range as KBH (79) and is in the same range as BZH (83). This means that TOL's stock grew similarly to KBH’s and similarly to BZH’s over the last 12 months.
BZH's P/E Growth Rating (1) in the Homebuilding industry is in the same range as KBH (22) and is in the same range as TOL (25). This means that BZH's stock grew similarly to KBH’s and similarly to TOL’s over the last 12 months.
| BZH | KBH | TOL | |
|---|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 75% | 2 days ago 79% | N/A |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 75% | 2 days ago 72% | 2 days ago 74% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 80% | 2 days ago 69% | 2 days ago 60% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 79% | 2 days ago 69% | 2 days ago 60% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 78% | 2 days ago 69% | 2 days ago 73% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 77% | 2 days ago 71% | 2 days ago 63% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 75% | 7 days ago 67% | 7 days ago 71% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 9 days ago 76% | 9 days ago 66% | 9 days ago 60% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 75% | 2 days ago 68% | 2 days ago 70% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 73% | 2 days ago 69% | 2 days ago 62% |
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BZH and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, BZH has been closely correlated with PHM. These tickers have moved in lockstep 77% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if BZH jumps, then PHM could also see price increases.
KBH and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, KBH has been closely correlated with PHM. These tickers have moved in lockstep 90% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if KBH jumps, then PHM could also see price increases.
TOL and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, TOL has been closely correlated with PHM. These tickers have moved in lockstep 91% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if TOL jumps, then PHM could also see price increases.