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C or KEY or VLY
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Citigroup (C) vs. KeyCorp (KEY) vs. Valley National Bancorp (VLY) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- C, a global money-center bank, offers diversified revenue but faces recent downward pressure from private credit concerns, with YTD gains of about 8.71% and a P/E of 15.24.
- KEY, a regional bank, shows resilience with Q4 earnings beats and buybacks, though shares have declined amid sector volatility; 1-year return around 32%.
- VLY, another regional player, reported strong Q4 revenue growth of 14% and new buyback authorization, with YTD performance at 3.68% and attractive P/E near 12.5.
- All three have experienced recent pullbacks in a volatile banking sector, but regionals like KEY and VLY benefit from deposit growth and NIM expansion.
- C leads in market cap ($186B) and scale, while KEY and VLY trade at lower valuations, appealing for value in relative performance comparisons.
- Upcoming earnings and interest rate dynamics will influence sentiment shifts across these stocks.
Introduction
This stock comparison examines C (Citigroup), KEY (KeyCorp), and VLY (Valley National Bancorp), representing a mix of money-center and regional banking models. Investors tracking financial sector relative performance may find value here, as these stocks navigate interest rate shifts, credit concerns, and economic uncertainty. With recent market activity highlighting banking sector volatility, this analysis aids traders assessing momentum, valuation sensitivity, and market positioning for portfolio decisions.
C Overview and Recent Performance
C (Citigroup Inc.) is a global financial services giant with operations in consumer banking, institutional clients, and wealth management, boasting a market cap of approximately $186 billion. In recent market activity, shares have faced downward pressure, declining around 2.5% amid broader concerns in private credit and financial sector headwinds, with YTD returns at 8.71%. Key influences include geopolitical tensions prompting work-from-home measures in the Middle East and analyst upgrades like Morgan Stanley's top pick status. Trading at a trailing P/E of 15.24 and EPS (TTM) of $6.99, upcoming Q1 earnings on April 14 are projected at $2.59 EPS, up 32% year-over-year, supporting sentiment amid restructuring progress.
KEY Overview and Recent Performance
KEY (KeyCorp) operates as a major regional bank focused on commercial, consumer, and investment banking across the U.S. Midwest and Northeast, with a market presence emphasizing net interest income growth. Recent weeks have seen mixed sentiment, with shares down amid regional bank concerns but buoyed by Q4 earnings beats, higher NII, and a $200 million buyback completion. Analysts have adjusted price targets positively post-earnings, highlighting profitability returns. With a trailing P/E around 13 and 1-year returns near 32%, performance reflects resilience in deposit costs and lending, though sector volatility persists.
VLY Overview and Recent Performance
VLY (Valley National Bancorp) is a regional bank serving commercial, retail, and wealth clients primarily in the Northeast and Florida, with total loans at $50 billion. Recent performance includes strong Q4 results with 14% revenue growth to $1.01 billion, EPS of $0.31 beating estimates, and a new 25 million share buyback program. Shares rallied post-earnings but have pulled back in line with sector trends, showing YTD gains of 3.68% and a trailing P/E of about 12.5. Sentiment is lifted by NIM expansion, deposit growth, and reduced CRE exposure, positioning it for organic expansion.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
C’s global business model provides scale and diversification across geographies, contrasting with KEY and VLY’s regional focus on core deposits and lending. Growth drivers differ: C leverages institutional fees amid restructuring, while regionals benefit from NIM expansion and buybacks. Recent momentum favors VLY’s earnings beats, but all face risk factors like credit quality and rate sensitivity. Sector exposure highlights C’s international breadth versus regionals’ domestic CRE ties. Valuation sensitivity shows VLY and KEY at lower P/Es (12-13) than C’s 15, with market sentiment tilting toward regionals’ capital returns amid banking volatility.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Tickeron’s AI currently favors VLY due to its trend consistency in revenue growth, earnings beats, and shareholder returns via buybacks, alongside lower valuation and improving deposit metrics. Relative positioning in the regional banking space, with reduced risks and NIM tailwinds, suggests higher probability of outperformance versus C’s scale but recent pressures or KEY’s mixed momentum.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer. Disclaimers and Limitations
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
C’s FA Score shows that 4 FA rating(s) are green whileKEY’s FA Score has 2 green FA rating(s), and VLY’s FA Score reflects 1 green FA rating(s).
- C’s FA Score: 4 green, 1 red.
- KEY’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
- VLY’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
C’s TA Score shows that 6 TA indicator(s) are bullish while KEY’s TA Score has 4 bullish TA indicator(s), and VLY’s TA Score reflects 4 bullish TA indicator(s).
- C’s TA Score: 6 bullish, 4 bearish.
- KEY’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 5 bearish.
- VLY’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 6 bearish.
Price Growth
C (@Major Banks) experienced а +7.93% price change this week, while KEY (@Regional Banks) price change was +4.84% , and VLY (@Regional Banks) price fluctuated +5.15% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Major Banks industry was +4.00%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +4.14%, and the average quarterly price growth was +20.50%.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Regional Banks industry was +2.59%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +3.81%, and the average quarterly price growth was +18.99%.
Reported Earning Dates
C is expected to report earnings on Apr 14, 2026.
KEY is expected to report earnings on Apr 16, 2026.
VLY is expected to report earnings on Apr 23, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Major Banks (+4.00% weekly)Major banks are among the biggest companies in the world, often times with global reach and market capitalizations in the multi-billions. Large banks often have multiple arms spanning different disciplines, from deposits, to investment banking, to wealth management and insurance. The biggest banks often have key competitive advantages over smaller players in the industry in terms of brand recognition, cost of capital, and efficiency. Think J.P. Morgan, Bank of America, Wells Fargo, and Citigroup.
@Regional Banks (+2.59% weekly)Regional banks have a smaller reach than major banks, and cater mostly to one region of a country, such as a state or within a group of states. They offer services often similar – albeit with some limitations/smaller scale – compared to major banks. Taking deposits, making loans, mortgages, leases, credit cards , fund management, insurance and investment banking. SunTrust Banks, State Street Corp., M&T Bank Corp. are some examples of U.S. regional banks.
| C | KEY | VLY | |
| Capitalization | 213B | 23B | 7.24B |
| EBITDA | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Gain YTD | 7.154 | 5.002 | 12.862 |
| P/E Ratio | 17.80 | 14.12 | 12.93 |
| Revenue | 85.2B | 7.29B | 2.03B |
| Total Cash | 23.5B | N/A | 376M |
| Total Debt | 368B | 11B | 3.34B |
C | KEY | VLY | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 24 | 21 | 20 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 80 Overvalued | 80 Overvalued | 45 Fair valued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 25 | 75 | 80 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 2 | 8 | 11 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 10 | 18 | 41 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 16 | 89 | 48 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | n/a | n/a | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
VLY's Valuation (45) in the Regional Banks industry is somewhat better than the same rating for C (80) in the Financial Conglomerates industry, and is somewhat better than the same rating for KEY (80) in the Major Banks industry. This means that VLY's stock grew somewhat faster than C’s and somewhat faster than KEY’s over the last 12 months.
C's Profit vs Risk Rating (25) in the Financial Conglomerates industry is somewhat better than the same rating for KEY (75) in the Major Banks industry, and is somewhat better than the same rating for VLY (80) in the Regional Banks industry. This means that C's stock grew somewhat faster than KEY’s and somewhat faster than VLY’s over the last 12 months.
C's SMR Rating (2) in the Financial Conglomerates industry is in the same range as KEY (8) in the Major Banks industry, and is in the same range as VLY (11) in the Regional Banks industry. This means that C's stock grew similarly to KEY’s and similarly to VLY’s over the last 12 months.
C's Price Growth Rating (10) in the Financial Conglomerates industry is in the same range as KEY (18) in the Major Banks industry, and is in the same range as VLY (41) in the Regional Banks industry. This means that C's stock grew similarly to KEY’s and similarly to VLY’s over the last 12 months.
C's P/E Growth Rating (16) in the Financial Conglomerates industry is in the same range as VLY (48) in the Regional Banks industry, and is significantly better than the same rating for KEY (89) in the Major Banks industry. This means that C's stock grew similarly to VLY’s and significantly faster than KEY’s over the last 12 months.
| C | KEY | VLY | |
|---|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 57% | 2 days ago 61% | 2 days ago 62% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 59% | 2 days ago 67% | 2 days ago 68% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 66% | 2 days ago 68% | 2 days ago 69% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 70% | 2 days ago 63% | 2 days ago 75% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 68% | 2 days ago 65% | 2 days ago 64% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 65% | 2 days ago 59% | 2 days ago 63% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 65% | 3 days ago 61% | 3 days ago 62% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 13 days ago 68% | 13 days ago 70% | 13 days ago 69% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 61% | 2 days ago 74% | 2 days ago 68% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 57% | 2 days ago 66% | 2 days ago 68% |
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|---|---|---|---|
| ETFs / NAME | Price $ | Chg $ | Chg % |
| TMV | 37.30 | 0.32 | +0.87% |
| Direxion Daily 20+ Yr Trsy Bear 3X ETF | |||
| EMDM | 38.37 | 0.05 | +0.14% |
| First Trust Bloomberg Emr Mkt Dem ETF | |||
| DTAN | 31.42 | N/A | -0.01% |
| Sparkline International IntangibleValETF | |||
| VBR | 224.78 | -1.29 | -0.57% |
| Vanguard Small-Cap Value ETF | |||
| EOI | 19.47 | -0.20 | -1.02% |
| Eaton Vance Enhanced Equity Income Fund | |||
C and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, C has been closely correlated with BAC. These tickers have moved in lockstep 85% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if C jumps, then BAC could also see price increases.
KEY and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, KEY has been closely correlated with CFG. These tickers have moved in lockstep 93% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if KEY jumps, then CFG could also see price increases.
VLY and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, VLY has been closely correlated with FNB. These tickers have moved in lockstep 89% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if VLY jumps, then FNB could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To VLY | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VLY | 100% | -1.43% | ||
| FNB - VLY | 89% Closely correlated | -1.39% | ||
| ASB - VLY | 88% Closely correlated | -0.58% | ||
| UBSI - VLY | 87% Closely correlated | -1.57% | ||
| TCBI - VLY | 86% Closely correlated | -0.57% | ||
| ONB - VLY | 86% Closely correlated | -0.63% | ||
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