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CASY or FIVE or ULTA
Casey's General Stores (CASY) vs Five Below (FIVE) vs Ulta Beauty (ULTA) Earnings Recap: Recent Reports Signal Retail Resilience
Key Takeaways
- CASY Q3 FY2026 (ended Jan 31, 2026): EPS $3.49 (+50% YoY), revenue $3.92B (+0.3%), inside same-store sales +4%, fuel margin 41¢/gallon.
- ULTA Q4 FY2025 (ended Jan 31, 2026): EPS $8.01, full-year net sales $12.4B (+9.7%), comp sales +5.4%.
- FIVE Q4 FY2025 earnings scheduled for March 18, 2026; Q3 FY2025 showed net sales +23.1% to $1.04B, adj. EPS $0.68.
- All three demonstrated strength in core categories amid consumer spending shifts; CASY leads in margin expansion.
Earnings Context and Competitive Landscape
These retailers operate in distinct niches—CASY in convenience stores with fuel and prepared foods, FIVE in extreme-value teen merchandise, and ULTA in beauty—but share exposure to discretionary spending. Earnings timing highlights post-holiday performance, revealing resilience in same-store sales and margins despite economic pressures. Competition intensifies from discounters and e-commerce, making efficiency key.
Casey's General Stores Focus
CASY reported Q3 FY2026 results on March 9, 2026 (call March 10), for the quarter ended January 31, 2026. Diluted EPS rose 49.8% to $3.49, beating estimates, with net income up 49.3% to $130.1M and EBITDA +27.5% to $308.9M. Total revenue edged up 0.3% to $3.92B, driven by inside sales +5.7% to $1.48B (same-store +4.0%) and prepared food/beverages +6.5%. Fuel gross profit +15.3% on 41.0¢/gallon margin despite lower prices. Inside margin expanded 130bps to 42.2%. FY2026 guidance raised: EBITDA +18-20%, inside same-store +3.5-4.5%.
Five Below Context
FIVE Q4 FY2025 earnings are set for March 18, 2026 (fiscal year ends early February). Prior Q3 FY2025 (ended Nov 1, 2025) delivered net sales +23.1% to $1.04B, comp sales +14.3%, adj. EPS $0.68 (+62% YoY). Strong growth in stores (1,900+) supports positioning, though recent stock performance reflects volatility amid value retail pressures. Past earnings show consistent beats.
Ulta Beauty Context
ULTA released Q4/full FY2025 results on March 12, 2026 (fiscal year ended Jan 31, 2026). Q4 net sales +11.8% to $3.9B, comp sales +5.8%; full-year sales +9.7% to $12.4B, comp +5.4% (3.3% avg ticket, +2.0% transactions), diluted EPS $25.64 (+1.2%), operating income $1.5B (12.4% margin). Returned $890.5M to shareholders. FY2026 guidance: sales +6-7%, comp +2.5-3.5%, EPS +9.4-11.4% ($28.05-28.55).
Head-to-Head Earnings and Market Comparison
CASY excels in earnings quality with 50% EPS growth and margin gains (inside 42.2%, fuel 41¢), signaling operational leverage. ULTA shows steady comp growth but modest EPS rise; beauty demand resilient yet competitive. FIVE boasts high growth potential in value segment, with Q3 comps +14.3%, but higher risk from teen demographics. Investor sentiment favors CASY's stability; all exhibit positive growth signals amid retail caution.
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Tickeron AI Verdict
Tickeron AI currently favors CASY with 65% probability over the next quarter, driven by superior EPS growth, margin expansion, and raised FY2026 guidance amid stable convenience demand. ULTA (25%) benefits from comp sales strength but faces beauty sector competition; FIVE (10%) offers upside but higher volatility pre-earnings.
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Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
CASY’s FA Score shows that 2 FA rating(s) are green whileFIVE’s FA Score has 1 green FA rating(s), and ULTA’s FA Score reflects 2 green FA rating(s).
- CASY’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
- FIVE’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- ULTA’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
CASY’s TA Score shows that 4 TA indicator(s) are bullish while FIVE’s TA Score has 2 bullish TA indicator(s), and ULTA’s TA Score reflects 4 bullish TA indicator(s).
- CASY’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 4 bearish.
- FIVE’s TA Score: 2 bullish, 6 bearish.
- ULTA’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 6 bearish.
Price Growth
CASY (@Specialty Stores) experienced а -0.71% price change this week, while FIVE (@Specialty Stores) price change was -7.66% , and ULTA (@Specialty Stores) price fluctuated -3.17% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Specialty Stores industry was +1.27%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -0.38%, and the average quarterly price growth was +0.21%.
Reported Earning Dates
CASY is expected to report earnings on Jun 15, 2026.
FIVE is expected to report earnings on Jun 10, 2026.
ULTA is expected to report earnings on May 21, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Specialty Stores (+1.27% weekly)The specialty stores sector includes companies dedicated to the sale of retail products focused on a single product category, such as clothing, carpet, books, or office supplies. A specialty store could face intense competition from big-box departmental chains, and therefore offering an adequate collection of the product type it specializes in is key in maintaining/growing its market.
| CASY | FIVE | ULTA | |
| Capitalization | 27.3B | 12B | 22.8B |
| EBITDA | 1.33B | 582M | 1.88B |
| Gain YTD | 33.679 | 15.401 | -13.988 |
| P/E Ratio | 42.37 | 33.60 | 20.30 |
| Revenue | 17B | 4.43B | 12B |
| Total Cash | N/A | 524M | 205M |
| Total Debt | 2.92B | 2.01B | 2.58B |
CASY | FIVE | ULTA | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 30 | 71 | 3 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 85 Overvalued | 79 Overvalued | 84 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 2 | 90 | 56 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 49 | 49 | 20 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 40 | 36 | 62 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 28 | 9 | 25 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 50 | 75 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
FIVE's Valuation (79) in the Discount Stores industry is in the same range as ULTA (84) in the Specialty Stores industry, and is in the same range as CASY (85) in the Food Retail industry. This means that FIVE's stock grew similarly to ULTA’s and similarly to CASY’s over the last 12 months.
CASY's Profit vs Risk Rating (2) in the Food Retail industry is somewhat better than the same rating for ULTA (56) in the Specialty Stores industry, and is significantly better than the same rating for FIVE (90) in the Discount Stores industry. This means that CASY's stock grew somewhat faster than ULTA’s and significantly faster than FIVE’s over the last 12 months.
ULTA's SMR Rating (20) in the Specialty Stores industry is in the same range as CASY (49) in the Food Retail industry, and is in the same range as FIVE (49) in the Discount Stores industry. This means that ULTA's stock grew similarly to CASY’s and similarly to FIVE’s over the last 12 months.
FIVE's Price Growth Rating (36) in the Discount Stores industry is in the same range as CASY (40) in the Food Retail industry, and is in the same range as ULTA (62) in the Specialty Stores industry. This means that FIVE's stock grew similarly to CASY’s and similarly to ULTA’s over the last 12 months.
FIVE's P/E Growth Rating (9) in the Discount Stores industry is in the same range as ULTA (25) in the Specialty Stores industry, and is in the same range as CASY (28) in the Food Retail industry. This means that FIVE's stock grew similarly to ULTA’s and similarly to CASY’s over the last 12 months.
| CASY | FIVE | ULTA | |
|---|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 61% | 2 days ago 68% | 2 days ago 67% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 53% | 2 days ago 73% | 2 days ago 62% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 69% | 2 days ago 70% | 2 days ago 63% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 74% | 2 days ago 83% | 2 days ago 70% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 46% | 2 days ago 75% | 2 days ago 64% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 58% | 2 days ago 75% | 2 days ago 64% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 65% | 10 days ago 75% | 6 days ago 68% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 23 days ago 45% | 2 days ago 70% | 2 days ago 60% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 48% | 2 days ago 66% | 2 days ago 82% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 57% | 2 days ago 71% | 2 days ago 62% |
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CASY and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, CASY has been loosely correlated with MUSA. These tickers have moved in lockstep 34% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if CASY jumps, then MUSA could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To CASY | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CASY | 100% | -2.71% | ||
| MUSA - CASY | 34% Loosely correlated | -0.60% | ||
| RUSHB - CASY | 30% Poorly correlated | -1.05% | ||
| CPRT - CASY | 30% Poorly correlated | -0.70% | ||
| ACVA - CASY | 30% Poorly correlated | -0.23% | ||
| TSCO - CASY | 29% Poorly correlated | -1.34% | ||
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FIVE and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, FIVE has been closely correlated with ASO. These tickers have moved in lockstep 67% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if FIVE jumps, then ASO could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To FIVE | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FIVE | 100% | -3.47% | ||
| ASO - FIVE | 67% Closely correlated | +1.24% | ||
| RH - FIVE | 65% Loosely correlated | +1.44% | ||
| CPRT - FIVE | 58% Loosely correlated | -0.70% | ||
| WSM - FIVE | 53% Loosely correlated | -1.14% | ||
| DKS - FIVE | 50% Loosely correlated | -0.08% | ||
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