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COHR or MTSI or TSM
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Coherent Corp (COHR) vs. MACOM Technology Solutions Holdings, Inc. (MTSI) vs. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited (TSM) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- COHR leads with 234% one-year returns and 19% YTD, driven by AI optics demand in datacenters, though recent volatility shows sharp pullbacks.
- MTSI delivers solid 113% one-year and 22% YTD gains, bolstered by record data center and defense revenue growth amid AI interconnect expansions.
- TSM posts 94% one-year returns but lags YTD at 6%, reflecting scale in AI chip foundry with strong demand yet broader market pressures.
- All three benefit from AI infrastructure tailwinds, but COHR and MTSI show higher recent momentum in optics/semiconductors versus TSM's stability.
- Valuations diverge: COHR at 217x P/E (price-to-earnings ratio), MTSI 95x, TSM 31x, highlighting growth premiums in niche AI plays.
- Recent sector selloffs tied to profit-taking and competition, yet AI catalysts like datacenter optics and advanced nodes sustain positive sentiment.
Introduction
This comparison examines COHR, MTSI, and TSM, key players in the semiconductor and optics ecosystem fueling AI infrastructure growth. These stocks appeal to traders eyeing high-momentum AI beneficiaries and investors seeking exposure to datacenter expansion, advanced chip manufacturing, and optical interconnects. Amid surging demand for AI accelerators and networking, relative performance highlights trade-offs in growth, valuation, and risk, offering insights into sector positioning in recent market activity.
COHR Overview and Recent Performance
Coherent Corp (COHR) develops engineered materials, optoelectronic components, lasers, and transceivers for datacenters, industrial, and communications markets. In recent weeks, shares experienced volatility, dropping nearly 10% in a single session amid broader AI optics sector pressures like Samsung's photonics announcements, yet maintain 19% YTD and explosive 234% one-year gains. Sentiment reflects robust datacenter demand, with book-to-bill ratios over 4x in networking, NVIDIA partnerships for silicon photonics, and S&P 500 inclusion boosting visibility. Performance drivers include AI transceiver growth, though elevated valuations and supply chain dynamics contribute to swings.
MTSI Overview and Recent Performance
MACOM Technology Solutions Holdings, Inc. (MTSI) designs analog semiconductors including amplifiers, switches, and subsystems for RF, microwave, and optical applications in datacenters, defense, and telecom. Recent market activity shows resilience with 22% YTD and 113% one-year returns, despite short-term dips linked to sector rotation. Key influences include new 448G drivers for 3.2T connectivity, PCIe 7.0 launches, and gains in data center/industrial segments post-earnings beats. Positive analyst views on AI interconnects and 5G/6G sustain momentum, balancing growth with moderate volatility.
TSM Overview and Recent Performance
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited (TSM) is the leading pure-play foundry, fabricating advanced nodes for AI chips, smartphones, and high-performance computing. Shares faced recent pressure, down 3% in a session amid risk-off sentiment, with 6% YTD but strong 94% one-year performance. Drivers include record AI revenue, 2nm production ramps, and hyperscaler demand from NVIDIA/Apple, with January-February sales up 30% YoY. Geopolitical factors and capacity constraints temper gains, yet robust margins and capex support long-term positioning.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
COHR and MTSI focus on optics and analog components critical for AI datacenter networking, contrasting TSM's foundry model producing logic chips. Growth stems from AI hyperscaler spending: COHR's transceivers/photonics, MTSI's high-speed drivers, and TSM's 3nm/2nm nodes. Recent momentum favors COHR/MTSI with superior YTD gains, versus TSM's scale-driven stability. Risks include competition/execution for optics plays and geopolitics for TSM; valuations premium for COHR (217x P/E), attractive for TSM (31x). Sector exposure ties to AI capex, with optics sensitive to interconnect shifts and foundry to node advances. Sentiment leans bullish on all amid infrastructure buildout, but trade-offs pit niche growth against diversified maturity.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Tickeron’s AI currently favors COHR for its superior trend consistency in AI optics, evidenced by outsized one-year returns and datacenter catalysts like NVIDIA ties, positioning it strongly relative to peers despite volatility. Probabilistic edge stems from momentum and backlog visibility over MTSI's steady gains and TSM's scale amid capacity constraints.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
COHR’s FA Score shows that 2 FA rating(s) are green whileMTSI’s FA Score has 1 green FA rating(s), and TSM’s FA Score reflects 3 green FA rating(s).
- COHR’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
- MTSI’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- TSM’s FA Score: 3 green, 2 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
COHR’s TA Score shows that 4 TA indicator(s) are bullish while MTSI’s TA Score has 6 bullish TA indicator(s), and TSM’s TA Score reflects 5 bullish TA indicator(s).
- COHR’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 5 bearish.
- MTSI’s TA Score: 6 bullish, 4 bearish.
- TSM’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 5 bearish.
Price Growth
COHR (@Electronic Equipment/Instruments) experienced а +12.20% price change this week, while MTSI (@Semiconductors) price change was +7.31% , and TSM (@Semiconductors) price fluctuated -0.03% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Electronic Equipment/Instruments industry was +2.72%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +3.56%, and the average quarterly price growth was +1.99%.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Semiconductors industry was +11.63%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +20.79%, and the average quarterly price growth was +24.53%.
Reported Earning Dates
COHR is expected to report earnings on May 13, 2026.
MTSI is expected to report earnings on Apr 30, 2026.
TSM is expected to report earnings on Jul 16, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Electronic Equipment/Instruments (+2.72% weekly)This industry manufactures electronic products used in various critical and sophisticated technologies, including laser-based systems, circuit and continuity testers, electro-optical measuring instruments and high-speed precision weighing and inspection equipment. Some major companies operating in this business are Canon Inc., Keysight Technologies Inc., and Fortive Corp.
@Semiconductors (+11.63% weekly)The semiconductor industry manufacturers all chip-related products, including research and development. These chips are used in innumerable electronic devices, including computers, cell phones, smartphones, and GPSs. Intel Corporation, NVIDIA Corp., and Broadcomm are some of the prominent players in this industry. Semiconductor companies usually tend to do well during periods of healthy economic growth, thereby inducing further research and development in the industry – which in turn augurs well for productivity and growth in the economy. In the near future, demand for semiconductor products (and possibly innovation within the segment) should only expand further, with the proliferation of 5G, autonomous vehicles, IoT, and various AI-driven electronics set to herald a new, advanced chapter in the technology-driven world as we know it. With burgeoning prospects comes great competition. In 2015, SIA estimated that U.S. semiconductor industry ranks as the second most competitive U.S. industry out of 2882 U.S. industries designated manufacturers by the U.S. Census Bureau.
| COHR | MTSI | TSM | |
| Capitalization | 64.7B | 20.8B | 1.67T |
| EBITDA | 1.08B | 259M | 2.74T |
| Gain YTD | 86.932 | 61.706 | 22.602 |
| P/E Ratio | 338.25 | 125.33 | 31.83 |
| Revenue | 6.29B | 1.02B | 3.81T |
| Total Cash | 864M | 768M | N/A |
| Total Debt | 3.55B | 531M | N/A |
COHR | MTSI | TSM | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 33 | 42 | 26 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 91 Overvalued | 83 Overvalued | 46 Fair valued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 8 | 8 | 9 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 87 | 59 | 26 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 34 | 36 | 39 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 15 | 44 | 20 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | n/a | 50 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
TSM's Valuation (46) in the Semiconductors industry is somewhat better than the same rating for MTSI (83) in the Semiconductors industry, and is somewhat better than the same rating for COHR (91) in the Electronic Equipment Or Instruments industry. This means that TSM's stock grew somewhat faster than MTSI’s and somewhat faster than COHR’s over the last 12 months.
MTSI's Profit vs Risk Rating (8) in the Semiconductors industry is in the same range as COHR (8) in the Electronic Equipment Or Instruments industry, and is in the same range as TSM (9) in the Semiconductors industry. This means that MTSI's stock grew similarly to COHR’s and similarly to TSM’s over the last 12 months.
TSM's SMR Rating (26) in the Semiconductors industry is somewhat better than the same rating for MTSI (59) in the Semiconductors industry, and is somewhat better than the same rating for COHR (87) in the Electronic Equipment Or Instruments industry. This means that TSM's stock grew somewhat faster than MTSI’s and somewhat faster than COHR’s over the last 12 months.
COHR's Price Growth Rating (34) in the Electronic Equipment Or Instruments industry is in the same range as MTSI (36) in the Semiconductors industry, and is in the same range as TSM (39) in the Semiconductors industry. This means that COHR's stock grew similarly to MTSI’s and similarly to TSM’s over the last 12 months.
COHR's P/E Growth Rating (15) in the Electronic Equipment Or Instruments industry is in the same range as TSM (20) in the Semiconductors industry, and is in the same range as MTSI (44) in the Semiconductors industry. This means that COHR's stock grew similarly to TSM’s and similarly to MTSI’s over the last 12 months.
| COHR | MTSI | TSM | |
|---|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 66% | 3 days ago 70% | 3 days ago 57% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 69% | 3 days ago 57% | 3 days ago 77% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 75% | 3 days ago 76% | 3 days ago 67% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 80% | 3 days ago 77% | 3 days ago 68% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 82% | 3 days ago 77% | 3 days ago 65% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 85% | 3 days ago 79% | 3 days ago 75% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 82% | 3 days ago 74% | 12 days ago 71% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 25 days ago 78% | 21 days ago 70% | 4 days ago 62% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 75% | 3 days ago 70% | 3 days ago 58% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 76% | 3 days ago 79% | 3 days ago 67% |
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COHR and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, COHR has been loosely correlated with MKSI. These tickers have moved in lockstep 65% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if COHR jumps, then MKSI could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To COHR | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COHR | 100% | +5.19% | ||
| MKSI - COHR | 65% Loosely correlated | +3.22% | ||
| KEYS - COHR | 51% Loosely correlated | +1.33% | ||
| ESE - COHR | 45% Loosely correlated | +5.04% | ||
| ITRI - COHR | 43% Loosely correlated | +1.47% | ||
| VNT - COHR | 42% Loosely correlated | +2.28% | ||
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MTSI and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, MTSI has been closely correlated with KLAC. These tickers have moved in lockstep 70% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if MTSI jumps, then KLAC could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To MTSI | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTSI | 100% | +5.95% | ||
| KLAC - MTSI | 70% Closely correlated | +3.26% | ||
| LRCX - MTSI | 70% Closely correlated | +2.54% | ||
| SITM - MTSI | 69% Closely correlated | +7.03% | ||
| VECO - MTSI | 68% Closely correlated | +0.19% | ||
| AMKR - MTSI | 68% Closely correlated | +7.11% | ||
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