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COST or DEO or KDP
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Costco Wholesale (COST) vs. Diageo (DEO) vs. Keurig Dr Pepper (KDP) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- COST leads with positive year-to-date returns around 13%, driven by robust comparable sales growth of 7.4% and membership strength amid shifting consumer grocery habits.
- DEO lags significantly, down approximately 14-16% YTD and over 28% in the past year, pressured by weak U.S. demand, lowered sales guidance to -2% to -3%, and a halved interim dividend.
- KDP shows relative stability but trades down 2-3% YTD and 17% over one year, facing coffee cost inflation, labor strike risks, and margin pressures despite international gains.
- Over recent weeks, COST hovered near $970-$980 after peaking above $1,000, while DEO and KDP declined to the mid-$70s and mid-$20s, respectively.
- Defensive consumer staples positioning favors COST's consistent traffic and sales momentum over peers' demand and cost challenges.
Introduction
This stock comparison evaluates COST, DEO, and KDP in the current market, spotlighting their roles in consumer staples. Costco Wholesale operates membership warehouses, Diageo produces premium spirits and beer, and Keurig Dr Pepper focuses on non-alcoholic beverages and coffee systems. Traders seeking defensive plays amid volatility and investors eyeing relative performance in essentials-driven sectors will find value here, as these stocks highlight contrasts in growth resilience, sector headwinds, and market positioning.
COST Overview and Recent Performance
Costco Wholesale Corporation (COST) runs a global chain of membership warehouses offering bulk goods from groceries to electronics. In recent market activity, shares have shown resilience, trading around $970-$980 after fluctuations from highs above $1,000 earlier in the period. Comparable sales rose 7.4%, fueled by strong member traffic and engagement, with sentiment boosted by expansions into fertility care, in-store events, and grocery shifts as consumers cut dining out. Broader tailwinds include low unemployment supporting discretionary spends, though high valuations temper upside.
DEO Overview and Recent Performance
Diageo plc (DEO) is a leading producer of premium alcoholic beverages, including Johnnie Walker, Guinness, and Smirnoff, sold in nearly 180 countries. Recent weeks saw shares slide to the mid-$70s, reflecting over 14% YTD declines amid subdued U.S. spirits demand and inventory normalization. Key pressures include lowered full-year organic sales guidance to -2% to -3%, a halved interim dividend to 20 cents per share for balance sheet strengthening, and trade uncertainties. While Europe and Latin America grew, North America and China weaknesses dominate sentiment.
KDP Overview and Recent Performance
Keurig Dr Pepper Inc. (KDP) manufactures and distributes non-alcoholic beverages like Dr Pepper, Snapple, and Keurig coffee systems across North America. Shares have dipped to around $26-$27 recently, down 2-3% YTD, pressured by persistent coffee cost inflation into early 2026, labor tensions with Teamsters authorizing strikes, and U.S. coffee volume declines. Offsetting factors include 15% international sales growth and productivity savings, though margins contracted amid higher SG&A and input costs. Valuation appears attractive relative to peers.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
COST’s warehouse model thrives on membership fees (stable recurring revenue) and high-volume essentials, contrasting DEO’s premium spirits reliance on discretionary premiumization trends now faltering in key markets. KDP blends refreshment beverages with coffee pods, gaining from soda momentum but vulnerable to commodity swings unlike COST’s scale-driven pricing power. Recent momentum favors COST (stable highs), while DEO and KDP face downside risks from guidance cuts/dividend resets and inflation/strikes. Risk profiles differ: COST’s beta near 1 offers defensiveness; DEO’s cyclical exposure heightens volatility; KDP balances via international diversification. Valuations show KDP cheapest on forward P/E, but COST commands premium for superior sentiment and growth drivers.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Tickeron’s AI currently favors COST due to its trend consistency, sales momentum, and relative stability versus peers’ headwinds. Observable catalysts like member expansions and grocery shifts position it probabilistically stronger amid consumer staples rotation, though monitoring valuations remains key.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full Disclaimers and Limitations.
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
COST’s FA Score shows that 2 FA rating(s) are green whileDEO’s FA Score has 1 green FA rating(s), and KDP’s FA Score reflects 1 green FA rating(s).
- COST’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
- DEO’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- KDP’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
COST’s TA Score shows that 7 TA indicator(s) are bullish while DEO’s TA Score has 4 bullish TA indicator(s), and KDP’s TA Score reflects 5 bullish TA indicator(s).
- COST’s TA Score: 7 bullish, 4 bearish.
- DEO’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 5 bearish.
- KDP’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 5 bearish.
Price Growth
COST (@Discount Stores) experienced а -1.62% price change this week, while DEO (@Beverages: Alcoholic) price change was +5.63% , and KDP (@Beverages: Non-Alcoholic) price fluctuated +4.98% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Discount Stores industry was -0.78%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -2.41%, and the average quarterly price growth was +9.75%.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Beverages: Alcoholic industry was -0.78%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -6.61%, and the average quarterly price growth was -18.17%.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Beverages: Non-Alcoholic industry was +1.66%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -1.85%, and the average quarterly price growth was +164975.86%.
Reported Earning Dates
COST is expected to report earnings on Jul 29, 2026.
DEO is expected to report earnings on May 06, 2026.
KDP is expected to report earnings on Apr 23, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Discount Stores (-0.78% weekly)Companies in the discount stores industry specialize in offering substantial discounts on a vast array of retail products. Some companies in this industry also operate general merchandise warehouse clubs. Products sold at discount stores are typically similar to those of any department store, but the pricing of the goods is generally much lower (and hence the name “discount”). Think Dollar General Corporation, Dollar Tree, Inc. and Five Below, Inc. Many discount stores target low-income households and/or price-sensitive consumers as their potential market. Discount stores’ profitability could hinge on factors like competitive pricing, sufficient locations, healthy revenue per square foot, and effective advertisement. These store operators could have an edge over other retailers during financial crises or recessions, when many consumers could be looking for less expensive alternatives.
@Beverages: Alcoholic (-0.78% weekly)The alcoholic beverage market includes beer, wine, and spirits. From $230 billion in 2015, the industry has grown to around $250 billion by 2019. In recent years, alcoholic beverage makers have been looking to expand distribution and purchase channels, such as through online stores (e.g. e-commerce platform Drizly) and convenience stores. Anheuser-Busch In Bev and Diageo are major global alcoholic beverage companies, while U.S.-owned companies include Constellation Brands and Brown-Forman Corp. among several others.
@Beverages: Non-Alcoholic (+1.66% weekly)Non-alcoholic drinks include traces of alcohol or low alcohol content or without alcohol or alcohol removed. Functional Beverages, Carbonated Soft Drinks (CSDs), Sports Drinks, Fruit Beverages, and Bottled Water are some common types of non-alcoholic beverages. The largest segment in this market is soft drinks (think Pepsi and Coke). Many established companies in this space have also been stepping up production of low to zero-calorie varieties in recent years, to cater to a rising number of health-conscious consumers. Coca-Cola Company, Pepsico Inc, Keurig Dr Pepper Inc. and Monster Beverage Corporation are some major non-alcoholic beverage makers.
| COST | DEO | KDP | |
| Capitalization | 443B | 43.1B | 36.1B |
| EBITDA | 13.7B | 6.39B | 4.19B |
| Gain YTD | 15.944 | -10.224 | -3.511 |
| P/E Ratio | 51.92 | 17.90 | 17.37 |
| Revenue | 280B | 19.8B | 16.6B |
| Total Cash | 17.2B | 2.69B | N/A |
| Total Debt | 8.1B | 23.5B | 17.6B |
COST | DEO | KDP | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 18 | 4 | 65 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 94 Overvalued | 13 Undervalued | 25 Undervalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 11 | 100 | 100 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 31 | 97 | 74 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 36 | 77 | 61 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 69 | 54 | 94 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | n/a | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
DEO's Valuation (13) in the Beverages Alcoholic industry is in the same range as KDP (25) in the Beverages Non Alcoholic industry, and is significantly better than the same rating for COST (94) in the Specialty Stores industry. This means that DEO's stock grew similarly to KDP’s and significantly faster than COST’s over the last 12 months.
COST's Profit vs Risk Rating (11) in the Specialty Stores industry is significantly better than the same rating for DEO (100) in the Beverages Alcoholic industry, and is significantly better than the same rating for KDP (100) in the Beverages Non Alcoholic industry. This means that COST's stock grew significantly faster than DEO’s and significantly faster than KDP’s over the last 12 months.
COST's SMR Rating (31) in the Specialty Stores industry is somewhat better than the same rating for KDP (74) in the Beverages Non Alcoholic industry, and is significantly better than the same rating for DEO (97) in the Beverages Alcoholic industry. This means that COST's stock grew somewhat faster than KDP’s and significantly faster than DEO’s over the last 12 months.
COST's Price Growth Rating (36) in the Specialty Stores industry is in the same range as KDP (61) in the Beverages Non Alcoholic industry, and is somewhat better than the same rating for DEO (77) in the Beverages Alcoholic industry. This means that COST's stock grew similarly to KDP’s and somewhat faster than DEO’s over the last 12 months.
DEO's P/E Growth Rating (54) in the Beverages Alcoholic industry is in the same range as COST (69) in the Specialty Stores industry, and is somewhat better than the same rating for KDP (94) in the Beverages Non Alcoholic industry. This means that DEO's stock grew similarly to COST’s and somewhat faster than KDP’s over the last 12 months.
| COST | DEO | KDP | |
|---|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 35% | 1 day ago 43% | 1 day ago 71% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 38% | 1 day ago 58% | 1 day ago 43% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 65% | 1 day ago 56% | 1 day ago 39% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 60% | 1 day ago 51% | 1 day ago 49% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 43% | 1 day ago 46% | 1 day ago 44% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 62% | 1 day ago 55% | 1 day ago 43% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 64% | 3 days ago 42% | 1 day ago 49% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 20 days ago 38% | 23 days ago 59% | 10 days ago 45% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 33% | 1 day ago 71% | 5 days ago 65% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 55% | 1 day ago 51% | 1 day ago 35% |
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COST and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, COST has been loosely correlated with WMT. These tickers have moved in lockstep 62% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if COST jumps, then WMT could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To COST | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COST | 100% | -3.25% | ||
| WMT - COST | 62% Loosely correlated | -1.83% | ||
| BJ - COST | 46% Loosely correlated | -1.01% | ||
| OLLI - COST | 31% Poorly correlated | -2.68% | ||
| PSMT - COST | 31% Poorly correlated | -2.62% | ||
| TGT - COST | 23% Poorly correlated | -1.73% | ||
More | ||||
DEO and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, DEO has been closely correlated with PRNDY. These tickers have moved in lockstep 69% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if DEO jumps, then PRNDY could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To DEO | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DEO | 100% | -1.38% | ||
| PRNDY - DEO | 69% Closely correlated | +1.06% | ||
| MGPI - DEO | 55% Loosely correlated | -0.74% | ||
| BUD - DEO | 55% Loosely correlated | +0.72% | ||
| STZ - DEO | 54% Loosely correlated | +1.89% | ||
| REMYY - DEO | 44% Loosely correlated | +1.32% | ||
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KDP and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, KDP has been loosely correlated with PEP. These tickers have moved in lockstep 51% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if KDP jumps, then PEP could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To KDP | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| KDP | 100% | +0.57% | ||
| PEP - KDP | 51% Loosely correlated | -0.27% | ||
| KO - KDP | 49% Loosely correlated | -0.91% | ||
| FIZZ - KDP | 42% Loosely correlated | -2.03% | ||
| MNST - KDP | 34% Loosely correlated | -0.62% | ||
| CCEP - KDP | 32% Poorly correlated | -0.49% | ||
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