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COST or DG or HSY
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Costco Wholesale Corporation (COST) vs. Dollar General Corporation (DG) vs. The Hershey Company (HSY) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- COST shares have shown resilience with strong Q2 earnings beats, including 9.2% revenue growth to $69.6 billion and 13% EPS increase, driving YTD gains around 14-16%.
- DG has delivered robust YTD performance of about 10%, buoyed by value retail demand, though recent sessions reflect broader market volatility ahead of Q4 earnings.
- HSY leads YTD with roughly 24-28% returns, fueled by salty snacks growth of 28% and analyst upgrades amid resilient confectionery demand.
- COST boasts a massive $436 billion market cap with stable membership-driven model, contrasting DG's $32 billion cap and small-box efficiency.
- All three exhibit defensive qualities in consumer staples, but HSY trades at elevated P/E over 50, signaling premium valuation versus peers.
- Recent momentum favors HSY and DG in relative performance amid shifting retail dynamics.
Introduction
This stock comparison examines COST, DG, and HSY, representing warehouse club retail, discount variety stores, and confectionery manufacturing within consumer staples. These stocks appeal to traders seeking defensive exposure amid market volatility and investors eyeing value in everyday essentials. Recent earnings momentum, membership trends, and snack demand shifts provide key insights into relative performance, valuation sensitivity, and positioning for ongoing economic pressures like inflation and consumer trading down.
COST Overview and Recent Performance
Costco Wholesale Corporation (COST) operates membership warehouses offering bulk branded and private-label goods globally. Its model emphasizes low markups offset by fees, yielding high inventory turnover. In recent market activity, COST reported Q2 fiscal 2026 revenue of $69.6 billion, up 9.2% year-over-year and beating estimates, with EPS at $4.58 versus $4.55 expected. Comparable sales rose 7.4%, digitally 22.6%, and membership fees grew 13.6%. Shares traded around $998, reflecting YTD gains of 14-16% and a $436 billion market cap, buoyed by resilient demand despite premium valuation concerns. Sentiment remains positive on execution, though muted post-earnings reactions highlight high expectations.
DG Overview and Recent Performance
Dollar General Corporation (DG) runs over 20,000 small-format discount stores targeting rural and low-income consumers with everyday essentials at low prices. Its model focuses on convenience, high store density, and private brands. Recent weeks saw DG shares around $146, with YTD returns near 10% amid broader retail shifts. Ahead of Q4 earnings, analysts eye 4.7% revenue growth to $10.78 billion and EPS of $1.61, with positive Earnings ESP of 5.38% suggesting potential beats. A 97-103% one-year surge underscores turnaround momentum from employed low-income traffic, though volatility persists in recent sessions.
HSY Overview and Recent Performance
The Hershey Company (HSY) manufactures chocolate, confectionery, and snacks under iconic brands like Hershey's and Reese's, sold globally via retail channels. Its model leverages brand strength, innovation in salty snacks, and pricing power amid commodity fluctuations. Lately, HSY shares hovered near $225, posting top YTD gains of 24-28% and a $46 billion market cap. North America salty snacks surged 28% to $357 million in Q4, with LesserEvil integration boosting demand. Analyst upgrades reflect visibility into earnings growth, though P/E above 50 signals caution on cocoa costs and valuation.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
COST's warehouse model drives stability via 341,000 employees and global scale, contrasting DG's nimble 20,000+ small stores serving trade-down consumers. HSY focuses on branded snacks, less cyclical than retail peers. Growth differs: COST via memberships (13% rise), DG same-store potential (2-3%), HSY salty snacks expansion. Recent momentum favors HSY (24%+ YTD) over COST (14%) and DG (10%). Risks include COST/DG's tariff exposure versus HSY's cocoa volatility. Valuations show HSY P/E >50 premium, while peers trade richer on stability. Sentiment tilts to value plays like DG amid economic caution.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Tickeron’s AI currently leans toward HSY based on superior trend consistency, YTD outperformance, and catalysts like salty snacks growth amid defensive sector rotation. Its relative positioning offers probabilistic edge over COST's post-earnings stability and DG's pre-earnings upside, though volatility warrants monitoring.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer. Disclaimers and Limitations
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
COST’s FA Score shows that 2 FA rating(s) are green whileDG’s FA Score has 0 green FA rating(s), and HSY’s FA Score reflects 1 green FA rating(s).
- COST’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
- DG’s FA Score: 0 green, 5 red.
- HSY’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
COST’s TA Score shows that 5 TA indicator(s) are bullish while DG’s TA Score has 4 bullish TA indicator(s), and HSY’s TA Score reflects 4 bullish TA indicator(s).
- COST’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 5 bearish.
- DG’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 5 bearish.
- HSY’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 4 bearish.
Price Growth
COST (@Discount Stores) experienced а +0.14% price change this week, while DG (@Discount Stores) price change was +9.46% , and HSY (@Food: Specialty/Candy) price fluctuated -4.78% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Discount Stores industry was +2.34%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +2.71%, and the average quarterly price growth was +7.10%.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Food: Specialty/Candy industry was -2.68%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -2.45%, and the average quarterly price growth was +1.01%.
Reported Earning Dates
COST is expected to report earnings on Jul 29, 2026.
DG is expected to report earnings on May 21, 2026.
HSY is expected to report earnings on Apr 30, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Discount Stores (+2.34% weekly)Companies in the discount stores industry specialize in offering substantial discounts on a vast array of retail products. Some companies in this industry also operate general merchandise warehouse clubs. Products sold at discount stores are typically similar to those of any department store, but the pricing of the goods is generally much lower (and hence the name “discount”). Think Dollar General Corporation, Dollar Tree, Inc. and Five Below, Inc. Many discount stores target low-income households and/or price-sensitive consumers as their potential market. Discount stores’ profitability could hinge on factors like competitive pricing, sufficient locations, healthy revenue per square foot, and effective advertisement. These store operators could have an edge over other retailers during financial crises or recessions, when many consumers could be looking for less expensive alternatives.
@Food: Specialty/Candy (-2.68% weekly)A specialty/candy manufacturer specializes in one or more of the following: chocolate, candies, pasta, condiments, seasonings, among other items. Hershey Company, McCormick & Company and J.M. Smucker Company are some of the major firms in this segment. Demand for this industry’s products comes from both institutions/restaurants as well as households.
| COST | DG | HSY | |
| Capitalization | 444B | 27.9B | 39B |
| EBITDA | 14.1B | 3.24B | 1.94B |
| Gain YTD | 16.109 | -3.726 | 6.547 |
| P/E Ratio | 52.00 | 18.49 | 44.38 |
| Revenue | 286B | 42.7B | 11.7B |
| Total Cash | 18.2B | 1.14B | 926M |
| Total Debt | 8.17B | 15.7B | 5.74B |
COST | DG | HSY | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 27 | 30 | 7 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 94 Overvalued | 45 Fair valued | 34 Fair valued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 11 | 100 | 71 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 32 | 46 | 46 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 35 | 52 | 59 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 73 | 62 | 7 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 50 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
HSY's Valuation (34) in the Food Specialty Or Candy industry is in the same range as DG (45) in the Discount Stores industry, and is somewhat better than the same rating for COST (94) in the Specialty Stores industry. This means that HSY's stock grew similarly to DG’s and somewhat faster than COST’s over the last 12 months.
COST's Profit vs Risk Rating (11) in the Specialty Stores industry is somewhat better than the same rating for HSY (71) in the Food Specialty Or Candy industry, and is significantly better than the same rating for DG (100) in the Discount Stores industry. This means that COST's stock grew somewhat faster than HSY’s and significantly faster than DG’s over the last 12 months.
COST's SMR Rating (32) in the Specialty Stores industry is in the same range as HSY (46) in the Food Specialty Or Candy industry, and is in the same range as DG (46) in the Discount Stores industry. This means that COST's stock grew similarly to HSY’s and similarly to DG’s over the last 12 months.
COST's Price Growth Rating (35) in the Specialty Stores industry is in the same range as DG (52) in the Discount Stores industry, and is in the same range as HSY (59) in the Food Specialty Or Candy industry. This means that COST's stock grew similarly to DG’s and similarly to HSY’s over the last 12 months.
HSY's P/E Growth Rating (7) in the Food Specialty Or Candy industry is somewhat better than the same rating for DG (62) in the Discount Stores industry, and is significantly better than the same rating for COST (73) in the Specialty Stores industry. This means that HSY's stock grew somewhat faster than DG’s and significantly faster than COST’s over the last 12 months.
| COST | DG | HSY | |
|---|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 40% | 3 days ago 55% | 3 days ago 53% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 68% | 3 days ago 56% | 3 days ago 66% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 47% | 3 days ago 53% | N/A |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 56% | 3 days ago 64% | N/A |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 65% | 3 days ago 62% | 3 days ago 55% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 62% | 3 days ago 66% | 3 days ago 53% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 63% | 3 days ago 62% | 11 days ago 64% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 6 days ago 38% | 10 days ago 64% | 4 days ago 56% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 43% | 3 days ago 56% | 3 days ago 70% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 51% | 3 days ago 60% | 3 days ago 57% |
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HSY and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, HSY has been loosely correlated with KHC. These tickers have moved in lockstep 58% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if HSY jumps, then KHC could also see price increases.