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COST or DG or WMT
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Costco Wholesale (COST) vs. Dollar General (DG) vs. Walmart (WMT) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- COST leads YTD performance at +15.7%, outperforming WMT (+11.1%) and DG (+10.7%), driven by strong Q2 earnings and membership growth.
- DG has shown robust recovery with nearly 100% 1-year gains, benefiting from value-seeking consumers amid economic pressures.
- WMT maintains stability with diversified revenue streams, including e-commerce growth, but faces regulatory scrutiny from recent settlements.
- All three exhibit resilience in discount retail, with COST's high P/E (53x) reflecting premium growth expectations versus DG's more attractive 25x multiple.
- Recent tariff discussions could benefit COST through potential price reductions, enhancing membership value.
Introduction
This comparison examines COST, DG, and WMT, three discount retail giants navigating a value-oriented consumer landscape. Costco operates membership warehouses emphasizing bulk sales, Dollar General targets rural convenience with small-format stores, and Walmart dominates through scale and omnichannel presence. Traders seeking momentum plays and investors eyeing defensive stability will find value in analyzing their relative performance, growth drivers, and market positioning amid recent economic shifts like tariff talks and earnings beats. This stock comparison highlights key contrasts for informed decision-making in the retail sector.
COST Overview and Recent Performance
Costco Wholesale (COST) operates over 900 warehouses globally, generating revenue from bulk merchandise and high-margin membership fees. In recent market activity, shares traded around $998, within a 52-week range of $844-$1,067, boasting a market cap exceeding $443 billion. Q2 fiscal 2026 results showed net sales up 9.1% to $68.2 billion and EPS at $4.58, beating estimates, fueled by 7.4% comparable sales growth (6.7% ex-gas/FX) and 22.6% digitally-enabled surge. Membership fees rose 13.6%, underscoring loyalty with renewal rates near 90%. Tariff refund discussions have boosted sentiment, as potential pass-throughs reinforce low-price appeal. YTD gains of 15.7% outpace peers, though a muted post-earnings reaction reflects high valuation at 53x P/E. Steady traffic and international expansion (Canada +10.1%) drive positive relative performance.
DG Overview and Recent Performance
Dollar General (DG) runs nearly 20,000 small-box stores focused on rural essentials, emphasizing consumables and value pricing. Shares hover near $146, in a 52-week range of $75-$158, with a $32 billion market cap. Recent weeks saw YTD returns of 10.7%, trailing peers but following a 98% 1-year surge amid discount demand. Upcoming earnings anticipate 4.7% revenue growth to $10.8 billion, with positive surprise potential from cost controls. Jim Cramer's optimism highlights affordability unless oil spikes, though store closures raise safety concerns. At 25x P/E, valuation appears reasonable versus peers. Momentum from traffic gains and rural expansion supports sentiment, positioning DG for relative outperformance in value retail amid economic uncertainty.
WMT Overview and Recent Performance
Walmart (WMT) leads global retail with supercenters, e-commerce, and advertising, serving diverse demographics. Trading around $124 in a 52-week range of $80-$135, its nearly $1 trillion market cap underscores scale. YTD performance stands at 11.1%, with recent dips tied to insider sales and a $100 million Spark Driver settlement. Q3 showed 5.6% revenue growth to $190.7 billion, driven by 4.6% U.S. comps ex-fuel and 24% e-commerce rise. Advertising jumped 37%, bolstering margins. Analyst shifts to Hold cite regulatory risks, yet diversified streams like membership fees (+15%) sustain stability. Broader omnichannel strength and market positioning maintain appeal in fluctuating conditions.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
COST, DG, and WMT operate in discount retail but diverge in models: COST's membership-driven warehouses yield sticky high-margin fees (13.6% growth), contrasting DG's rural small-store focus on essentials and WMT's massive scale with e-commerce/advertising emphasis. Growth drivers include COST's international comps (13%) and digital surge, DG's traffic from value shoppers, and WMT's 24% online gains. Recent momentum favors COST (15.7% YTD) over WMT (11.1%) and DG (10.7%), though DG's 98% 1-year rebound highlights recovery potential. Risks encompass tariff exposure (COST poised for refunds), regulatory hurdles (WMT settlement), and oil sensitivity (DG). Sector exposure tilts COST toward affluent bulk buyers, DG to low-income rural, WMT broadly. Valuation sensitivity shows COST's premium 53x P/E versus DG's 25x and WMT's 45x, trading off growth for affordability. Sentiment leans positive on COST's stability, DG's upside, and WMT's diversification.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Tickeron’s AI currently favors COST due to superior trend consistency, with 15.7% YTD gains, earnings beats, and catalysts like tariff refunds enhancing membership value. Its stability in comps (7.4%) and digital growth outshines peers, positioning it strongly amid retail resilience. DG offers value at lower multiples with rebound potential, while WMT provides scale but regulatory drags. Probabilistic edge to COST for near-term relative strength.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full Disclaimers and Limitations.
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
COST’s FA Score shows that 2 FA rating(s) are green whileDG’s FA Score has 1 green FA rating(s), and WMT’s FA Score reflects 2 green FA rating(s).
- COST’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
- DG’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- WMT’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
COST’s TA Score shows that 7 TA indicator(s) are bullish while DG’s TA Score has 4 bullish TA indicator(s), and WMT’s TA Score reflects 5 bullish TA indicator(s).
- COST’s TA Score: 7 bullish, 4 bearish.
- DG’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 6 bearish.
- WMT’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 4 bearish.
Price Growth
COST (@Discount Stores) experienced а -1.62% price change this week, while DG (@Discount Stores) price change was -2.89% , and WMT (@Discount Stores) price fluctuated +0.78% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Discount Stores industry was -0.78%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -2.41%, and the average quarterly price growth was +9.75%.
Reported Earning Dates
COST is expected to report earnings on Jul 29, 2026.
DG is expected to report earnings on May 21, 2026.
WMT is expected to report earnings on May 14, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Discount Stores (-0.78% weekly)Companies in the discount stores industry specialize in offering substantial discounts on a vast array of retail products. Some companies in this industry also operate general merchandise warehouse clubs. Products sold at discount stores are typically similar to those of any department store, but the pricing of the goods is generally much lower (and hence the name “discount”). Think Dollar General Corporation, Dollar Tree, Inc. and Five Below, Inc. Many discount stores target low-income households and/or price-sensitive consumers as their potential market. Discount stores’ profitability could hinge on factors like competitive pricing, sufficient locations, healthy revenue per square foot, and effective advertisement. These store operators could have an edge over other retailers during financial crises or recessions, when many consumers could be looking for less expensive alternatives.
| COST | DG | WMT | |
| Capitalization | 443B | 25.5B | 1.01T |
| EBITDA | 13.7B | 3.24B | 46.5B |
| Gain YTD | 15.944 | -12.047 | 14.020 |
| P/E Ratio | 51.92 | 16.89 | 46.44 |
| Revenue | 280B | 42.7B | 713B |
| Total Cash | 17.2B | N/A | N/A |
| Total Debt | 8.1B | 15.7B | 68.4B |
COST | DG | WMT | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 18 | 5 | 20 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 94 Overvalued | 31 Undervalued | 91 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 11 | 100 | 7 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 31 | 45 | 99 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 36 | 59 | 21 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 69 | 62 | 38 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 50 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
DG's Valuation (31) in the Discount Stores industry is somewhat better than the same rating for WMT (91) in the Specialty Stores industry, and is somewhat better than the same rating for COST (94) in the Specialty Stores industry. This means that DG's stock grew somewhat faster than WMT’s and somewhat faster than COST’s over the last 12 months.
WMT's Profit vs Risk Rating (7) in the Specialty Stores industry is in the same range as COST (11) in the Specialty Stores industry, and is significantly better than the same rating for DG (100) in the Discount Stores industry. This means that WMT's stock grew similarly to COST’s and significantly faster than DG’s over the last 12 months.
COST's SMR Rating (31) in the Specialty Stores industry is in the same range as DG (45) in the Discount Stores industry, and is significantly better than the same rating for WMT (99) in the Specialty Stores industry. This means that COST's stock grew similarly to DG’s and significantly faster than WMT’s over the last 12 months.
WMT's Price Growth Rating (21) in the Specialty Stores industry is in the same range as COST (36) in the Specialty Stores industry, and is somewhat better than the same rating for DG (59) in the Discount Stores industry. This means that WMT's stock grew similarly to COST’s and somewhat faster than DG’s over the last 12 months.
WMT's P/E Growth Rating (38) in the Specialty Stores industry is in the same range as DG (62) in the Discount Stores industry, and is in the same range as COST (69) in the Specialty Stores industry. This means that WMT's stock grew similarly to DG’s and similarly to COST’s over the last 12 months.
| COST | DG | WMT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 35% | 1 day ago 56% | N/A |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 38% | 1 day ago 60% | 1 day ago 32% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 65% | 1 day ago 72% | 1 day ago 65% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 60% | 1 day ago 52% | 1 day ago 77% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 43% | 1 day ago 66% | 1 day ago 55% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 62% | 1 day ago 66% | 1 day ago 53% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 64% | 6 days ago 62% | 3 days ago 55% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 20 days ago 38% | 1 day ago 64% | 23 days ago 33% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 33% | 1 day ago 58% | 1 day ago 37% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 55% | 1 day ago 60% | 1 day ago 30% |
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COST and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, COST has been loosely correlated with WMT. These tickers have moved in lockstep 62% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if COST jumps, then WMT could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To COST | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COST | 100% | -3.25% | ||
| WMT - COST | 62% Loosely correlated | -1.83% | ||
| BJ - COST | 46% Loosely correlated | -1.01% | ||
| OLLI - COST | 31% Poorly correlated | -2.68% | ||
| PSMT - COST | 31% Poorly correlated | -2.62% | ||
| TGT - COST | 23% Poorly correlated | -1.73% | ||
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DG and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, DG has been loosely correlated with DLTR. These tickers have moved in lockstep 43% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if DG jumps, then DLTR could also see price increases.