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COST or EL or PG
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Costco Wholesale Corporation (COST) vs. The Estée Lauder Companies Inc. (EL) vs. The Procter & Gamble Company (PG) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- COST has shown year-to-date gains around 13%, driven by strong membership growth and comparable sales, outperforming peers in recent market activity.
- EL experienced sharp declines, dropping over 30% in recent weeks amid merger talks with Puig and ongoing demand challenges in prestige beauty.
- PG faced pressure from rising commodity costs and tariffs, with shares down approximately 10% over the past month, lagging broader market trends.
- Relative performance highlights COST's resilience in consumer staples retail versus volatility in beauty (EL) and household goods (PG).
- All three operate in defensive sectors, but COST benefits from membership model stability amid shifting sentiment.
Introduction
This comparison examines COST, EL, and PG—leaders in warehouse retail, prestige beauty, and household essentials. These stocks appeal to investors seeking defensive exposure in consumer staples amid economic uncertainty, volatile commodity prices, and shifting consumer behaviors. Traders focused on relative performance, sector momentum, and valuation trade-offs will find insights into recent price behavior, sentiment drivers, and head-to-head positioning in today's market environment.
COST Overview and Recent Performance
Costco Wholesale Corporation (COST) operates membership-based warehouses offering bulk goods across food, electronics, and essentials. In recent weeks, shares have displayed resilience, with year-to-date returns near 13% despite short-term pullbacks. Q2 fiscal 2026 results beat estimates, fueled by 8.5% revenue growth to $69 billion and robust comparable sales up 6.5%, supported by e-commerce surges and membership fee increases. Sentiment remains positive due to traffic resilience and market share gains, though premium valuations reflect growth expectations. Price action shows consolidation around $970-$980 after highs near $1,000, influenced by broader retail strength.
EL Overview and Recent Performance
The Estée Lauder Companies Inc. (EL) manufactures and markets prestige skincare, makeup, fragrance, and haircare products globally. Recent market activity has pressured shares, with declines exceeding 30% from February highs around $115, trading near $71 amid merger discussions with Puig. Q2 fiscal 2026 earnings topped estimates with $4.23 billion in sales and $0.89 EPS, but weak Americas demand and travel retail softness weighed on outlook. Volatility spiked on news, with trading volume surging, reflecting investor concerns over operational challenges and competitive dynamics in beauty. Sentiment has shifted cautious, with shares testing support levels post-dividend ex-date.
PG Overview and Recent Performance
The Procter & Gamble Company (PG) produces branded consumer goods in fabric care, hygiene, and health. Shares have underperformed recently, declining about 10% over the past month to around $143, hit by margin squeezes from commodity inflation and tariff risks. Year-to-date returns hover near flat, contrasting earlier gains, as soft category demand and promotional intensity impacted results. Trading near 52-week lows earlier, recovery attempts stalled amid broader staples weakness. Defensive brand strength supports stability, but cost pressures have tempered sentiment.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
COST’s membership model drives recurring revenue and low churn, contrasting EL’s exposure to discretionary prestige beauty cycles and PG’s staples reliance on volume amid inflation. Growth drivers favor COST’s traffic and e-commerce (up double-digits) over EL’s regional softness and PG’s promotional drags. Recent momentum tilts to COST (YTD +13%) versus EL’s plunge and PG’s slide. Risks include COST’s premium P/E (~50x), EL’s merger uncertainty, and PG’s cost sensitivity. Sector-wise, retail defensiveness aids COST, while beauty volatility hits EL; sentiment favors COST’s stability over peers’ headwinds.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Tickeron’s AI currently favors COST based on superior trend consistency, membership-driven stability, and positive catalysts like sales beats amid peers’ pressures. While EL offers rebound potential post-merger clarity and PG provides dividend reliability, COST’s relative positioning suggests higher probability of outperformance in defensive rotations.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer. Disclaimers and Limitations
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
COST’s FA Score shows that 2 FA rating(s) are green whileEL’s FA Score has 0 green FA rating(s), and PG’s FA Score reflects 1 green FA rating(s).
- COST’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
- EL’s FA Score: 0 green, 5 red.
- PG’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
COST’s TA Score shows that 7 TA indicator(s) are bullish while EL’s TA Score has 5 bullish TA indicator(s), and PG’s TA Score reflects 4 bullish TA indicator(s).
- COST’s TA Score: 7 bullish, 4 bearish.
- EL’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 4 bearish.
- PG’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 6 bearish.
Price Growth
COST (@Discount Stores) experienced а -1.62% price change this week, while EL (@Household/Personal Care) price change was +5.14% , and PG (@Household/Personal Care) price fluctuated +1.43% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Discount Stores industry was -0.78%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -2.41%, and the average quarterly price growth was +9.75%.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Household/Personal Care industry was +2.76%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -0.20%, and the average quarterly price growth was -8.38%.
Reported Earning Dates
COST is expected to report earnings on Jul 29, 2026.
EL is expected to report earnings on May 01, 2026.
PG is expected to report earnings on Apr 24, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Discount Stores (-0.78% weekly)Companies in the discount stores industry specialize in offering substantial discounts on a vast array of retail products. Some companies in this industry also operate general merchandise warehouse clubs. Products sold at discount stores are typically similar to those of any department store, but the pricing of the goods is generally much lower (and hence the name “discount”). Think Dollar General Corporation, Dollar Tree, Inc. and Five Below, Inc. Many discount stores target low-income households and/or price-sensitive consumers as their potential market. Discount stores’ profitability could hinge on factors like competitive pricing, sufficient locations, healthy revenue per square foot, and effective advertisement. These store operators could have an edge over other retailers during financial crises or recessions, when many consumers could be looking for less expensive alternatives.
@Household/Personal Care (+2.76% weekly)Household/Personal Care companies sell products for home cleaning and/or personal hygiene and grooming purposes. Products of this industry include detergents, shampoos, soaps, cosmetics, fabric conditioners and infant care fragrances. Procter & Gamble, Unilever, Estee Lauder and Colgate-Palmolive are some of the biggest names in the business. A lot of the products become a necessary part of people’s daily routine, and therefore the industry is relatively less vulnerable to macroeconomic downturns. At the same time, product quality, consumer safety, and ease of use are extremely critical factors for a company to survive competition and earn recognition in this industry.
| COST | EL | PG | |
| Capitalization | 443B | 26.3B | 337B |
| EBITDA | 13.7B | 1.39B | 24.5B |
| Gain YTD | 15.944 | -30.388 | 2.010 |
| P/E Ratio | 51.92 | 147.80 | 21.51 |
| Revenue | 280B | 14.7B | 85.3B |
| Total Cash | 17.2B | 3.08B | 10.8B |
| Total Debt | 8.1B | 9.39B | 36.6B |
COST | EL | PG | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 18 | 57 | 51 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 94 Overvalued | 52 Fair valued | 39 Fair valued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 11 | 100 | 53 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 31 | 90 | 29 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 36 | 64 | 59 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 69 | 36 | 80 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | n/a | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
PG's Valuation (39) in the Household Or Personal Care industry is in the same range as EL (52) in the Household Or Personal Care industry, and is somewhat better than the same rating for COST (94) in the Specialty Stores industry. This means that PG's stock grew similarly to EL’s and somewhat faster than COST’s over the last 12 months.
COST's Profit vs Risk Rating (11) in the Specialty Stores industry is somewhat better than the same rating for PG (53) in the Household Or Personal Care industry, and is significantly better than the same rating for EL (100) in the Household Or Personal Care industry. This means that COST's stock grew somewhat faster than PG’s and significantly faster than EL’s over the last 12 months.
PG's SMR Rating (29) in the Household Or Personal Care industry is in the same range as COST (31) in the Specialty Stores industry, and is somewhat better than the same rating for EL (90) in the Household Or Personal Care industry. This means that PG's stock grew similarly to COST’s and somewhat faster than EL’s over the last 12 months.
COST's Price Growth Rating (36) in the Specialty Stores industry is in the same range as PG (59) in the Household Or Personal Care industry, and is in the same range as EL (64) in the Household Or Personal Care industry. This means that COST's stock grew similarly to PG’s and similarly to EL’s over the last 12 months.
EL's P/E Growth Rating (36) in the Household Or Personal Care industry is somewhat better than the same rating for COST (69) in the Specialty Stores industry, and is somewhat better than the same rating for PG (80) in the Household Or Personal Care industry. This means that EL's stock grew somewhat faster than COST’s and somewhat faster than PG’s over the last 12 months.
| COST | EL | PG | |
|---|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 35% | 1 day ago 62% | 1 day ago 62% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 38% | 1 day ago 67% | 1 day ago 45% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 65% | 1 day ago 62% | 1 day ago 44% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 60% | 1 day ago 54% | 1 day ago 39% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 43% | 1 day ago 63% | 1 day ago 42% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 62% | 1 day ago 75% | 1 day ago 42% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 64% | 3 days ago 63% | 3 days ago 45% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 20 days ago 38% | 10 days ago 74% | 5 days ago 42% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 33% | 1 day ago 72% | 1 day ago 36% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 55% | 1 day ago 72% | 1 day ago 36% |
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COST and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, COST has been loosely correlated with WMT. These tickers have moved in lockstep 62% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if COST jumps, then WMT could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To COST | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COST | 100% | -3.25% | ||
| WMT - COST | 62% Loosely correlated | -1.83% | ||
| BJ - COST | 46% Loosely correlated | -1.01% | ||
| OLLI - COST | 31% Poorly correlated | -2.68% | ||
| PSMT - COST | 31% Poorly correlated | -2.62% | ||
| TGT - COST | 23% Poorly correlated | -1.73% | ||
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PG and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, PG has been closely correlated with CL. These tickers have moved in lockstep 72% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if PG jumps, then CL could also see price increases.