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COST or HSY or KR
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Costco Wholesale Corporation (COST) vs. The Hershey Company (HSY) vs. The Kroger Co. (KR) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- COST leads with strong membership-driven sales growth and recent earnings beats, trading near all-time highs with YTD gains around 16%.
- HSY shows robust YTD performance of about 23%, bolstered by salty snacks expansion amid cocoa cost pressures.
- KR delivered Q4 earnings surprises with 20% e-commerce growth, achieving 18% YTD returns but faces thinner margins.
- All three exhibit defensive qualities in consumer staples, with COST at premium valuations (P/E ~50), HSY elevated (~51), and KR more attractive (~48 trailing).
- Recent momentum favors HSY and KR over broader market, while COST benefits from international expansion.
Introduction
This comparison examines COST, HSY, and KR, key players in consumer staples spanning warehouse retail, confectionery, and grocery distribution. These stocks appeal to investors seeking stability amid market volatility, with membership models, brand loyalty, and essential goods exposure providing resilience. Traders may value their relative performance in recent market activity, where defensive sectors have shown strength. Understanding their business models, recent momentum, and valuation sensitivities aids in assessing stock comparison for portfolio positioning in the current environment.
COST Overview and Recent Performance
Costco Wholesale Corporation operates membership warehouses offering bulk goods, groceries, and essentials globally. In recent weeks, shares have hovered around $1,000, reflecting YTD gains of approximately 16% and resilience near 52-week highs. Strong Q2 earnings beat estimates with robust comparable sales and membership fee growth, driven by e-commerce and international expansion. Sentiment remains positive amid tariff navigation and price cut signals if refunds materialize, underscoring operational efficiency and consumer demand for value.
HSY Overview and Recent Performance
The Hershey Company manufactures confectionery, snacks, and pantry items, with iconic brands like Hershey's and Reese's. Shares trade around $223, posting YTD returns near 23% and strong three-month gains of over 22%. Recent performance reflects resilient demand despite cocoa costs, with salty snacks surging and Q4 beats on sales/profit forecasts for 2026. Analysts note benefits from prior price hikes, though Halloween discounting highlighted pressures; overall sentiment supports growth in non-chocolate categories.
KR Overview and Recent Performance
The Kroger Co. runs supermarkets and multi-department stores under various banners, emphasizing food, pharmacy, and e-commerce. Trading near $73, it has delivered 18% YTD returns with recent monthly gains around 8%. Q4 earnings topped estimates at $1.28 adjusted EPS, with identical sales up and e-commerce surging 20%, aided by sourcing efficiencies. A new Chief Data and AI Officer role signals digital transformation; performance reflects steady demand despite modest revenue and margin challenges.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
COST’s membership model drives high-margin recurring revenue and global growth, contrasting KR’s broad grocery footprint with price competition and e-commerce push. HSY leverages branded confectionery loyalty but faces commodity risks like cocoa, unlike the retailers’ volume focus. Recent momentum shows HSY and KR outpacing on YTD basis, while COST exhibits steadier trends. Risks include tariffs for COST, input costs for HSY, and margins for KR. Valuations reflect premiums for COST and HSY (P/E 50+), versus KR’s relative value; sentiment tilts toward stability in staples amid broader uncertainty.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Tickeron’s AI currently favors COST for its consistent trend strength, membership stability, and catalysts like earnings beats and expansion, positioning it ahead in relative performance. HSY and KR show solid momentum, but COST’s lower beta and growth profile suggest higher probability of outperformance in defensive rotations.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer. Disclaimers and Limitations
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
COST’s FA Score shows that 2 FA rating(s) are green whileHSY’s FA Score has 1 green FA rating(s), and KR’s FA Score reflects 2 green FA rating(s).
- COST’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
- HSY’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- KR’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
COST’s TA Score shows that 5 TA indicator(s) are bullish while HSY’s TA Score has 4 bullish TA indicator(s), and KR’s TA Score reflects 4 bullish TA indicator(s).
- COST’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 5 bearish.
- HSY’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 4 bearish.
- KR’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 6 bearish.
Price Growth
COST (@Discount Stores) experienced а +0.14% price change this week, while HSY (@Food: Specialty/Candy) price change was -4.78% , and KR (@Food Retail) price fluctuated +0.29% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Discount Stores industry was +2.34%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +2.71%, and the average quarterly price growth was +7.10%.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Food: Specialty/Candy industry was -2.68%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -2.45%, and the average quarterly price growth was +1.01%.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Food Retail industry was +2.31%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +2.04%, and the average quarterly price growth was +3.08%.
Reported Earning Dates
COST is expected to report earnings on Jul 29, 2026.
HSY is expected to report earnings on Apr 30, 2026.
KR is expected to report earnings on Jun 11, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Discount Stores (+2.34% weekly)Companies in the discount stores industry specialize in offering substantial discounts on a vast array of retail products. Some companies in this industry also operate general merchandise warehouse clubs. Products sold at discount stores are typically similar to those of any department store, but the pricing of the goods is generally much lower (and hence the name “discount”). Think Dollar General Corporation, Dollar Tree, Inc. and Five Below, Inc. Many discount stores target low-income households and/or price-sensitive consumers as their potential market. Discount stores’ profitability could hinge on factors like competitive pricing, sufficient locations, healthy revenue per square foot, and effective advertisement. These store operators could have an edge over other retailers during financial crises or recessions, when many consumers could be looking for less expensive alternatives.
@Food: Specialty/Candy (-2.68% weekly)A specialty/candy manufacturer specializes in one or more of the following: chocolate, candies, pasta, condiments, seasonings, among other items. Hershey Company, McCormick & Company and J.M. Smucker Company are some of the major firms in this segment. Demand for this industry’s products comes from both institutions/restaurants as well as households.
@Food Retail (+2.31% weekly)The food retail industry includes companies that sell food, beverage and household products. Items sold include grocery, gourmet food, fresh produce, and frozen food. Kroger Co., George Weston Ltd., Grocery Outlet Holding Corp., and Sprouts Farmers Markets, Inc. are examples of major food retailers. While e-commerce companies like Amazon have increasingly been ramping-up offerings in the food retail space, several traditional players have also been expanding their online presence to stand their ground against rising competition.
| COST | HSY | KR | |
| Capitalization | 444B | 39B | 41.8B |
| EBITDA | 14.1B | 1.94B | 5.76B |
| Gain YTD | 16.109 | 6.547 | 9.686 |
| P/E Ratio | 52.00 | 44.38 | 44.28 |
| Revenue | 286B | 11.7B | 148B |
| Total Cash | 18.2B | 926M | 4.58B |
| Total Debt | 8.17B | 5.74B | 24.7B |
COST | HSY | KR | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 27 | 7 | 54 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 94 Overvalued | 34 Fair valued | 55 Fair valued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 11 | 71 | 24 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 32 | 46 | 56 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 35 | 59 | 59 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 73 | 7 | 10 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 50 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
HSY's Valuation (34) in the Food Specialty Or Candy industry is in the same range as KR (55) in the Food Retail industry, and is somewhat better than the same rating for COST (94) in the Specialty Stores industry. This means that HSY's stock grew similarly to KR’s and somewhat faster than COST’s over the last 12 months.
COST's Profit vs Risk Rating (11) in the Specialty Stores industry is in the same range as KR (24) in the Food Retail industry, and is somewhat better than the same rating for HSY (71) in the Food Specialty Or Candy industry. This means that COST's stock grew similarly to KR’s and somewhat faster than HSY’s over the last 12 months.
COST's SMR Rating (32) in the Specialty Stores industry is in the same range as HSY (46) in the Food Specialty Or Candy industry, and is in the same range as KR (56) in the Food Retail industry. This means that COST's stock grew similarly to HSY’s and similarly to KR’s over the last 12 months.
COST's Price Growth Rating (35) in the Specialty Stores industry is in the same range as HSY (59) in the Food Specialty Or Candy industry, and is in the same range as KR (59) in the Food Retail industry. This means that COST's stock grew similarly to HSY’s and similarly to KR’s over the last 12 months.
HSY's P/E Growth Rating (7) in the Food Specialty Or Candy industry is in the same range as KR (10) in the Food Retail industry, and is significantly better than the same rating for COST (73) in the Specialty Stores industry. This means that HSY's stock grew similarly to KR’s and significantly faster than COST’s over the last 12 months.
| COST | HSY | KR | |
|---|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 40% | 3 days ago 53% | 3 days ago 57% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 68% | 3 days ago 66% | 3 days ago 66% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 47% | N/A | 3 days ago 49% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 56% | N/A | 3 days ago 54% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 65% | 3 days ago 55% | 3 days ago 62% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 62% | 3 days ago 53% | 3 days ago 53% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 63% | 11 days ago 64% | 3 days ago 57% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 6 days ago 38% | 4 days ago 56% | 5 days ago 46% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 43% | 3 days ago 70% | 3 days ago 57% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 51% | 3 days ago 57% | 3 days ago 44% |
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| Principal Capital Appreciation Sel ETF | |||
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| Dimensional US Large Cap Value ETF | |||
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HSY and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, HSY has been loosely correlated with KHC. These tickers have moved in lockstep 58% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if HSY jumps, then KHC could also see price increases.