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COST or KDP or KR
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Costco Wholesale Corporation (COST) vs. Keurig Dr Pepper Inc. (KDP) vs. The Kroger Co. (KR) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- COST reported Q2 fiscal 2026 earnings up 13.9% year-over-year with revenues rising 9.2%, driven by membership growth and strong comparable sales, supporting resilient performance amid market volatility.
- KDP beat Q4 2025 estimates with 10.5% revenue growth to $4.5 billion, fueled by U.S. refreshment beverages and acquisitions like GHOST, forecasting $25.9-26.4 billion in 2026 sales.
- KR topped Q4 EPS estimates with e-commerce sales up 20% and identical sales growth, though revenues slightly missed; focuses on digital expansion and operational efficiencies.
- Year-to-date, COST leads with ~13-16% gains, followed by KR at ~12-18%, while KDP shows ~2-4% amid broader consumer staples trends.
- Valuations reflect stability: COST trades at premium P/E ~53x, KDP ~18x with growth potential, KR ~46-65x post-earnings.
- All three exhibit defensive qualities in recent market activity, with membership models (COST) and beverage demand (KDP) providing edges over traditional grocery (KR).
Introduction
This stock comparison examines COST, KDP, and KR, representing warehouse retail, beverages, and traditional grocery sectors within consumer staples. These stocks appeal to investors seeking defensive plays amid economic uncertainty, as they benefit from essential demand and value-oriented consumer shifts. Traders may find value in their relative performance, with recent earnings highlighting growth in memberships, e-commerce, and pricing power. This analysis aids in understanding market positioning, momentum, and trade-offs for portfolio allocation in volatile conditions.
COST Overview and Recent Performance
COST, or Costco Wholesale Corporation, operates membership-based warehouse clubs offering bulk goods across food, electronics, and apparel. In recent market activity, the stock has shown resilience, forming a bullish 'golden cross' post-Q2 fiscal 2026 earnings where EPS rose 13.9% to $4.58 and revenues climbed 9.2% to $69.6 billion, beating estimates. Membership fees surged 13.6%, underscoring loyalty amid competitive pressures. Sentiment remains positive with analyst buy ratings and targets up to $1,185, supported by comparable sales growth and e-commerce strength, though premium valuations reflect steady traffic and international expansion.
KDP Overview and Recent Performance
KDP, Keurig Dr Pepper Inc., leads in beverages with brands like Dr Pepper and Keurig coffee systems. Recent quarters reflect robust momentum, with Q4 2025 revenues up 10.5% to $4.5 billion, exceeding forecasts via 3.9% volume/mix and pricing gains, plus GHOST acquisition contributions. U.S. refreshment beverages grew 12%. Analysts project 26% upside, with forward P/E ~13x signaling undervaluation. Performance draws from coffee tariff relief and international potential, fostering optimistic sentiment despite modest YTD gains.
KR Overview and Recent Performance
KR, The Kroger Co., runs supermarkets and multi-department stores emphasizing fresh foods and digital services. Recent earnings topped EPS expectations, with Q4 e-commerce sales rising 20% and identical sales advancing, aided by sourcing efficiencies despite revenue misses. Focus on marketplace formats and loyalty programs bolsters margins. Stock momentum reflects ~15% monthly gains, trading at elevated P/E post-results, as operational tweaks counter grocery competition and inflation sensitivities.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
COST’s membership model drives recurring revenue (13.6% fee growth), contrasting KDP’s brand portfolio and volume/pricing leverage (10.5% sales rise) and KR’s scale in perishables/e-commerce. Growth stems from COST international comps, KDP acquisitions, and KR digital (20% boost). Recent momentum favors COST YTD (~15%), with KR catching up monthly. Risks include COST premium sensitivity, KDP coffee volatility, KR merger uncertainties. Sector exposure tilts defensive, but COST leads stability, KDP value (lower P/E), KR yield potential.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Tickeron’s AI currently favors COST for its trend consistency, membership-driven stability, and superior relative YTD positioning versus KDP and KR. Recent beats and low-beta resilience signal higher probability of outperformance in defensive rotations, though KDP’s valuation offers upside if growth catalysts materialize.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer. Disclaimers and Limitations
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
COST’s FA Score shows that 2 FA rating(s) are green whileKDP’s FA Score has 1 green FA rating(s), and KR’s FA Score reflects 2 green FA rating(s).
- COST’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
- KDP’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- KR’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
COST’s TA Score shows that 5 TA indicator(s) are bullish while KDP’s TA Score has 4 bullish TA indicator(s), and KR’s TA Score reflects 4 bullish TA indicator(s).
- COST’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 5 bearish.
- KDP’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 4 bearish.
- KR’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 6 bearish.
Price Growth
COST (@Discount Stores) experienced а +0.14% price change this week, while KDP (@Beverages: Non-Alcoholic) price change was -0.15% , and KR (@Food Retail) price fluctuated +0.29% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Discount Stores industry was +2.34%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +2.71%, and the average quarterly price growth was +7.10%.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Beverages: Non-Alcoholic industry was -0.77%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -1.88%, and the average quarterly price growth was +2073.90%.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Food Retail industry was +2.31%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +2.04%, and the average quarterly price growth was +3.08%.
Reported Earning Dates
COST is expected to report earnings on Jul 29, 2026.
KDP is expected to report earnings on Apr 23, 2026.
KR is expected to report earnings on Jun 11, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Discount Stores (+2.34% weekly)Companies in the discount stores industry specialize in offering substantial discounts on a vast array of retail products. Some companies in this industry also operate general merchandise warehouse clubs. Products sold at discount stores are typically similar to those of any department store, but the pricing of the goods is generally much lower (and hence the name “discount”). Think Dollar General Corporation, Dollar Tree, Inc. and Five Below, Inc. Many discount stores target low-income households and/or price-sensitive consumers as their potential market. Discount stores’ profitability could hinge on factors like competitive pricing, sufficient locations, healthy revenue per square foot, and effective advertisement. These store operators could have an edge over other retailers during financial crises or recessions, when many consumers could be looking for less expensive alternatives.
@Beverages: Non-Alcoholic (-0.77% weekly)Non-alcoholic drinks include traces of alcohol or low alcohol content or without alcohol or alcohol removed. Functional Beverages, Carbonated Soft Drinks (CSDs), Sports Drinks, Fruit Beverages, and Bottled Water are some common types of non-alcoholic beverages. The largest segment in this market is soft drinks (think Pepsi and Coke). Many established companies in this space have also been stepping up production of low to zero-calorie varieties in recent years, to cater to a rising number of health-conscious consumers. Coca-Cola Company, Pepsico Inc, Keurig Dr Pepper Inc. and Monster Beverage Corporation are some major non-alcoholic beverage makers.
@Food Retail (+2.31% weekly)The food retail industry includes companies that sell food, beverage and household products. Items sold include grocery, gourmet food, fresh produce, and frozen food. Kroger Co., George Weston Ltd., Grocery Outlet Holding Corp., and Sprouts Farmers Markets, Inc. are examples of major food retailers. While e-commerce companies like Amazon have increasingly been ramping-up offerings in the food retail space, several traditional players have also been expanding their online presence to stand their ground against rising competition.
| COST | KDP | KR | |
| Capitalization | 444B | 36B | 41.8B |
| EBITDA | 14.1B | 4.19B | 5.76B |
| Gain YTD | 16.109 | -3.656 | 9.686 |
| P/E Ratio | 52.00 | 17.34 | 44.28 |
| Revenue | 286B | 16.6B | 148B |
| Total Cash | 18.2B | N/A | 4.58B |
| Total Debt | 8.17B | 17.6B | 24.7B |
COST | KDP | KR | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 27 | 11 | 54 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 94 Overvalued | 25 Undervalued | 55 Fair valued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 11 | 100 | 24 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 32 | 75 | 56 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 35 | 61 | 59 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 73 | 95 | 10 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 50 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
KDP's Valuation (25) in the Beverages Non Alcoholic industry is in the same range as KR (55) in the Food Retail industry, and is significantly better than the same rating for COST (94) in the Specialty Stores industry. This means that KDP's stock grew similarly to KR’s and significantly faster than COST’s over the last 12 months.
COST's Profit vs Risk Rating (11) in the Specialty Stores industry is in the same range as KR (24) in the Food Retail industry, and is significantly better than the same rating for KDP (100) in the Beverages Non Alcoholic industry. This means that COST's stock grew similarly to KR’s and significantly faster than KDP’s over the last 12 months.
COST's SMR Rating (32) in the Specialty Stores industry is in the same range as KR (56) in the Food Retail industry, and is somewhat better than the same rating for KDP (75) in the Beverages Non Alcoholic industry. This means that COST's stock grew similarly to KR’s and somewhat faster than KDP’s over the last 12 months.
COST's Price Growth Rating (35) in the Specialty Stores industry is in the same range as KR (59) in the Food Retail industry, and is in the same range as KDP (61) in the Beverages Non Alcoholic industry. This means that COST's stock grew similarly to KR’s and similarly to KDP’s over the last 12 months.
KR's P/E Growth Rating (10) in the Food Retail industry is somewhat better than the same rating for COST (73) in the Specialty Stores industry, and is significantly better than the same rating for KDP (95) in the Beverages Non Alcoholic industry. This means that KR's stock grew somewhat faster than COST’s and significantly faster than KDP’s over the last 12 months.
| COST | KDP | KR | |
|---|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 40% | 3 days ago 61% | 3 days ago 57% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 68% | 3 days ago 43% | 3 days ago 66% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 47% | 3 days ago 39% | 3 days ago 49% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 56% | 3 days ago 55% | 3 days ago 54% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 65% | 3 days ago 47% | 3 days ago 62% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 62% | 3 days ago 43% | 3 days ago 53% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 63% | 3 days ago 49% | 3 days ago 57% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 6 days ago 38% | 5 days ago 46% | 5 days ago 46% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 43% | N/A | 3 days ago 57% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 51% | 3 days ago 35% | 3 days ago 44% |
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