Advertisement
COST or KDP or PEP
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Costco Wholesale (COST) vs. Keurig Dr Pepper (KDP) vs. PepsiCo (PEP) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- COST reported Q2 fiscal 2026 net sales up 9.1% to $68.24 billion, with EPS of $4.58 beating estimates, driving YTD gains of ~16% amid strong membership growth.
- KDP showed Q4 revenue growth of 10.5%, with analysts forecasting 26% upside potential; recent acquisition of JDE Peet's positions it for coffee expansion, though YTD returns lag at ~2%.
- PEP delivered YTD performance of ~12%, supported by diversification into protein snacks like Doritos Protein and global scale, but faces softer volume trends in beverages.
- Valuation contrasts: COST trades at a premium forward P/E ~46x due to resilient growth; KDP at ~14x offers value with higher revenue momentum vs. PEP's ~20x.
- Recent market activity highlights COST's stability in discount retail, while KDP and PEP navigate beverage competition and innovation for relative outperformance.
- Sentiment favors COST for trend consistency, with AI tools like Tickeron's bots signaling strength in consumer staples including COST.
Introduction
This comparison examines COST, KDP, and PEP—leaders in discount retail and beverages—amid shifting consumer preferences toward value and health-focused products. Costco Wholesale operates membership warehouses emphasizing bulk essentials, while Keurig Dr Pepper and PepsiCo dominate non-alcoholic beverages with growing emphasis on coffee, energy drinks, and snacks. Traders seeking defensive plays in consumer staples and investors eyeing relative performance in a volatile market will find value in analyzing their recent momentum, growth drivers, and positioning. Recent earnings beats and strategic moves provide timely insights into their market resilience.
COST Overview and Recent Performance
Costco Wholesale (COST) runs a global network of membership warehouses, prioritizing high-volume sales of essentials at low margins. In recent market activity, COST posted Q2 fiscal 2026 net sales of $68.24 billion, up 9.1% year-over-year, with membership fees rising 13.6% on growth and executive upgrades. EPS reached $4.58, surpassing estimates by 0.7%, fueled by traffic gains, higher ticket sizes, and 22.6% digitally-enabled sales surge. Comparable sales grew 7.4% company-wide. Tariff refund potential and checkout improvements bolster sentiment, supporting YTD returns near 16% and analyst buy ratings with targets to $1,185. Competitive pressures persist, but membership retention drives stability.
KDP Overview and Recent Performance
Keurig Dr Pepper (KDP) leads in carbonated soft drinks, coffee systems, and emerging categories like energy drinks, with a portfolio exceeding 125 brands. Recent quarters showed U.S. Refreshment Beverages strength, contributing to Q4 net sales up 10.5% and full-year results aligning with guidance. Analysts project 26% upside, with price targets rising (e.g., Wells Fargo to $40), citing undervaluation and JDE Peet's $18 billion acquisition for coffee revival, including a proprietary brand launch after decades. YTD returns hover around 2%, with shares rebounding on momentum, though coffee profits face near-term hurdles. Strategic financing updates aim for EPS accretion post-close in early 2026.
PEP Overview and Recent Performance
PepsiCo (PEP) spans beverages and snacks globally, with brands like Pepsi, Gatorade, and Frito-Lay generating billions in sales. In recent weeks, PEP expanded into protein snacks via Doritos Protein amid a market projected over $400 billion by 2033, alongside organizational shifts for growth acceleration. YTD performance stands at ~12%, outpacing peers in stability, though beverage volumes softened. Q4 results highlighted international resilience (40% of revenue) and $8.6 billion shareholder returns planned. Analysts hold a neutral stance, with targets around $171, as innovation counters competition in health trends.
Trending AI Robots
Tickeron’s Trending AI Robots page curates top-performing AI trading bots from hundreds available, each scanning thousands of tickers for optimal signals based on current volatility and trends. These bots vary in styles—from 5-minute scalpers to 60-minute swing traders—delivering annualized returns up to 133% (e.g., multi-sector strategies), win rates of 70-90%, and profit factors over 2.0 in sectors like aerospace, energy, and semiconductors. Consumer staples bots, including one trading COST with peers, post +20% returns at 70% win rates. Updated in real-time, this section spotlights bots suited to market conditions. Explore Trending AI Robots to align strategies with proven performers.
Head-to-Head Comparison
COST’s warehouse model thrives on membership loyalty and bulk essentials, contrasting KDP and PEP’s branded beverages focus. Growth drivers differ: COST leverages 9%+ sales and digital surges; KDP eyes 10%+ refreshment gains and acquisitions; PEP diversifies via snacks (58% revenue). Recent momentum favors COST (YTD +16%) over PEP (+12%) and KDP (+2%). Risks include COST’s premium valuation sensitivity, KDP’s debt from deals, and PEP’s volume pressures. All share consumer defensive exposure, but COST leads in stability, KDP in value (P/E ~14x), and PEP in global scale. Sentiment tilts to COST for earnings consistency versus peers’ innovation trade-offs.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Tickeron’s AI favors COST in the current environment, given superior trend consistency, earnings beats, and membership-driven stability amid retail value demand. Its ~16% YTD outperformance and bots trading it signal positive positioning, while KDP’s growth potential and PEP’s diversification offer alternatives. Probabilistic edge leans 60% to COST on catalysts like tariffs, barring sector shifts.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer. Disclaimers and Limitations
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
COST’s FA Score shows that 2 FA rating(s) are green whileKDP’s FA Score has 1 green FA rating(s), and PEP’s FA Score reflects 3 green FA rating(s).
- COST’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
- KDP’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- PEP’s FA Score: 3 green, 2 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
COST’s TA Score shows that 5 TA indicator(s) are bullish while KDP’s TA Score has 4 bullish TA indicator(s), and PEP’s TA Score reflects 5 bullish TA indicator(s).
- COST’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 5 bearish.
- KDP’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 4 bearish.
- PEP’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 5 bearish.
Price Growth
COST (@Discount Stores) experienced а +1.73% price change this week, while KDP (@Beverages: Non-Alcoholic) price change was +1.77% , and PEP (@Beverages: Non-Alcoholic) price fluctuated +0.71% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Discount Stores industry was +3.46%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +5.03%, and the average quarterly price growth was +10.12%.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Beverages: Non-Alcoholic industry was +0.13%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +1.19%, and the average quarterly price growth was +2127.54%.
Reported Earning Dates
COST is expected to report earnings on Jul 29, 2026.
KDP is expected to report earnings on Apr 23, 2026.
PEP is expected to report earnings on Jul 14, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Discount Stores (+3.46% weekly)Companies in the discount stores industry specialize in offering substantial discounts on a vast array of retail products. Some companies in this industry also operate general merchandise warehouse clubs. Products sold at discount stores are typically similar to those of any department store, but the pricing of the goods is generally much lower (and hence the name “discount”). Think Dollar General Corporation, Dollar Tree, Inc. and Five Below, Inc. Many discount stores target low-income households and/or price-sensitive consumers as their potential market. Discount stores’ profitability could hinge on factors like competitive pricing, sufficient locations, healthy revenue per square foot, and effective advertisement. These store operators could have an edge over other retailers during financial crises or recessions, when many consumers could be looking for less expensive alternatives.
@Beverages: Non-Alcoholic (+0.13% weekly)Non-alcoholic drinks include traces of alcohol or low alcohol content or without alcohol or alcohol removed. Functional Beverages, Carbonated Soft Drinks (CSDs), Sports Drinks, Fruit Beverages, and Bottled Water are some common types of non-alcoholic beverages. The largest segment in this market is soft drinks (think Pepsi and Coke). Many established companies in this space have also been stepping up production of low to zero-calorie varieties in recent years, to cater to a rising number of health-conscious consumers. Coca-Cola Company, Pepsico Inc, Keurig Dr Pepper Inc. and Monster Beverage Corporation are some major non-alcoholic beverage makers.
| COST | KDP | PEP | |
| Capitalization | 443B | 36B | 215B |
| EBITDA | 14.1B | 4.19B | 15.5B |
| Gain YTD | 15.871 | -3.765 | 10.362 |
| P/E Ratio | 51.89 | 17.32 | 24.65 |
| Revenue | 286B | 16.6B | 93.9B |
| Total Cash | 18.2B | N/A | 9.53B |
| Total Debt | 8.17B | 17.6B | 49.9B |
COST | KDP | PEP | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 17 | 8 | 54 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 94 Overvalued | 25 Undervalued | 26 Undervalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 11 | 100 | 61 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 32 | 75 | 21 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 35 | 61 | 32 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 71 | 95 | 43 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 50 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
KDP's Valuation (25) in the Beverages Non Alcoholic industry is in the same range as PEP (26) in the Beverages Non Alcoholic industry, and is significantly better than the same rating for COST (94) in the Specialty Stores industry. This means that KDP's stock grew similarly to PEP’s and significantly faster than COST’s over the last 12 months.
COST's Profit vs Risk Rating (11) in the Specialty Stores industry is somewhat better than the same rating for PEP (61) in the Beverages Non Alcoholic industry, and is significantly better than the same rating for KDP (100) in the Beverages Non Alcoholic industry. This means that COST's stock grew somewhat faster than PEP’s and significantly faster than KDP’s over the last 12 months.
PEP's SMR Rating (21) in the Beverages Non Alcoholic industry is in the same range as COST (32) in the Specialty Stores industry, and is somewhat better than the same rating for KDP (75) in the Beverages Non Alcoholic industry. This means that PEP's stock grew similarly to COST’s and somewhat faster than KDP’s over the last 12 months.
PEP's Price Growth Rating (32) in the Beverages Non Alcoholic industry is in the same range as COST (35) in the Specialty Stores industry, and is in the same range as KDP (61) in the Beverages Non Alcoholic industry. This means that PEP's stock grew similarly to COST’s and similarly to KDP’s over the last 12 months.
PEP's P/E Growth Rating (43) in the Beverages Non Alcoholic industry is in the same range as COST (71) in the Specialty Stores industry, and is somewhat better than the same rating for KDP (95) in the Beverages Non Alcoholic industry. This means that PEP's stock grew similarly to COST’s and somewhat faster than KDP’s over the last 12 months.
| COST | KDP | PEP | |
|---|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 43% | 1 day ago 57% | 1 day ago 46% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 64% | 1 day ago 52% | 1 day ago 35% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 52% | 1 day ago 38% | 1 day ago 51% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 58% | 1 day ago 53% | 1 day ago 43% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 65% | 1 day ago 44% | 1 day ago 42% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 62% | 1 day ago 43% | 1 day ago 44% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 5 days ago 63% | 5 days ago 49% | 13 days ago 39% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 8 days ago 38% | 7 days ago 46% | 1 day ago 44% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 47% | N/A | 1 day ago 40% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 50% | 1 day ago 36% | 1 day ago 33% |
Advertisement
KDP and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, KDP has been loosely correlated with PEP. These tickers have moved in lockstep 48% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if KDP jumps, then PEP could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To KDP | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| KDP | 100% | -0.11% | ||
| PEP - KDP | 48% Loosely correlated | -0.43% | ||
| KO - KDP | 45% Loosely correlated | -0.34% | ||
| FIZZ - KDP | 45% Loosely correlated | -1.28% | ||
| MNST - KDP | 31% Poorly correlated | +0.66% | ||
| CCEP - KDP | 27% Poorly correlated | -1.52% | ||
More | ||||