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COST or MDLZ or PM
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Costco Wholesale (COST) vs. Mondelez International (MDLZ) vs. Philip Morris International (PM) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- COST leads with YTD gains of approximately 13%, driven by robust membership growth and comparable sales, though recent weeks show short-term pullbacks amid broader market pressures.
- MDLZ trails with YTD returns around 4%, facing headwinds from elevated cocoa costs but focusing on premium chocolate expansions and snacking innovations for recovery.
- PM shows modest YTD performance near 2%, bolstered by strong smoke-free product growth contributing over 40% of revenues, with recent momentum in nicotine pouches like ZYN.
- Consumer staples sector faces valuation scrutiny, but COST's defensive membership model provides stability compared to commodity-sensitive MDLZ and regulatory-exposed PM.
- Recent earnings highlight COST and PM beating estimates, while MDLZ navigates cost pressures with strategic adjustments.
- Dividend yields favor PM and MDLZ over growth-oriented COST, appealing to income-focused investors in volatile markets.
Introduction
This stock comparison examines COST, MDLZ, and PM, three stalwarts in consumer staples with distinct business models: warehouse retailing, packaged snacks, and tobacco alternatives. Amid recent market volatility, including sector-wide valuation debates and commodity fluctuations, these stocks offer insights into defensive positioning, growth catalysts, and risk dynamics. Traders seeking momentum and investors prioritizing stability or income will find value in analyzing their relative performance, recent earnings beats, and sector exposure for informed portfolio decisions in the current environment.
COST Overview and Recent Performance
Costco Wholesale Corporation (COST) operates membership-based warehouses globally, emphasizing bulk sales of branded and private-label goods across food, electronics, and apparel. In recent quarters, net sales grew approximately 9%, fueled by 7-8% comparable sales increases and membership fee revenue up over 10%, reflecting strong renewal rates and traffic. Recent market activity saw shares pull back 3-4% over the past month from highs near $1,067, trading around $972, amid broader consumer staples rotation. Sentiment remains positive due to operational efficiencies, low food court pricing strategies, and employee investments enhancing customer loyalty, positioning COST resiliently against economic pressures.
MDLZ Overview and Recent Performance
Mondelez International (MDLZ), known for brands like Oreo and Cadbury, focuses on snacking in biscuits, chocolate, and gum across 150+ countries. Recent performance reflects organic revenue growth of 4% amid high cocoa costs pressuring margins, with shares down 6% monthly to around $56. Q4 revenues rose 9% to $10.5 billion, driven by pricing, though volume/mix dipped. Developments include Toblerone production expansions and recipe adjustments for premium offerings, alongside snacking innovations. Market sentiment weighs cocoa volatility against analyst upgrades signaling earnings recovery potential, with YTD gains near 4% lagging peers but supported by a 3.5% dividend yield.
PM Overview and Recent Performance
Philip Morris International (PM) leads in smoke-free transitions with IQOS, ZYN, and heated tobacco, operating in 100+ markets. Full-year 2025 revenues exceeded $40 billion, with smoke-free products at 41.5% ($17 billion), shipments up 13%. Shares recently declined 6-12% monthly to $163 amid sector weakness, but YTD holds near 2%. Key drivers include 27 markets surpassing 50% smoke-free revenue, cost savings of $1.5 billion, and operating cash flow at $12.2 billion. Regulatory authorizations and consumer shifts bolster sentiment, though broader tobacco risks persist, complemented by high dividend yields.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
COST, MDLZ, and PM operate in consumer staples but diverge in models: COST’s asset-light warehouses yield high volumes via memberships (P/E ~50), contrasting MDLZ’s branded snacks (P/E ~30) vulnerable to input costs and PM’s high-margin nicotine shift (P/E ~23). Growth drivers favor COST’s traffic and PM’s 41% smoke-free revenues over MDLZ’s volume softness. Recent momentum shows COST outperforming YTD, while all face monthly dips. Risks include COST’s premium valuation sensitivity, MDLZ’s commodities, and PM’s regulations. Dividend yields (~0.5% COST, 3.5% MDLZ/PM) suit income strategies, with sentiment tilting toward transition plays.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Tickeron’s AI currently favors COST for its consistent trend strength, membership-driven stability, and superior relative YTD positioning amid staples scrutiny. Observable catalysts like sales growth and low debt enhance probabilistic outperformance, though PM’s smoke-free momentum offers upside if regulatory tailwinds persist.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer. Disclaimers and Limitations
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
COST’s FA Score shows that 2 FA rating(s) are green whileMDLZ’s FA Score has 2 green FA rating(s), and PM’s FA Score reflects 3 green FA rating(s).
- COST’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
- MDLZ’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
- PM’s FA Score: 3 green, 2 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
COST’s TA Score shows that 5 TA indicator(s) are bullish while MDLZ’s TA Score has 3 bullish TA indicator(s), and PM’s TA Score reflects 4 bullish TA indicator(s).
- COST’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 5 bearish.
- MDLZ’s TA Score: 3 bullish, 4 bearish.
- PM’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 3 bearish.
Price Growth
COST (@Discount Stores) experienced а +0.14% price change this week, while MDLZ (@Food: Specialty/Candy) price change was -2.97% , and PM (@Tobacco) price fluctuated -1.66% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Discount Stores industry was +2.34%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +2.71%, and the average quarterly price growth was +7.10%.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Food: Specialty/Candy industry was -2.68%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -2.45%, and the average quarterly price growth was +1.01%.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Tobacco industry was -1.34%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -0.47%, and the average quarterly price growth was -9.25%.
Reported Earning Dates
COST is expected to report earnings on Jul 29, 2026.
MDLZ is expected to report earnings on Apr 28, 2026.
PM is expected to report earnings on Apr 22, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Discount Stores (+2.34% weekly)Companies in the discount stores industry specialize in offering substantial discounts on a vast array of retail products. Some companies in this industry also operate general merchandise warehouse clubs. Products sold at discount stores are typically similar to those of any department store, but the pricing of the goods is generally much lower (and hence the name “discount”). Think Dollar General Corporation, Dollar Tree, Inc. and Five Below, Inc. Many discount stores target low-income households and/or price-sensitive consumers as their potential market. Discount stores’ profitability could hinge on factors like competitive pricing, sufficient locations, healthy revenue per square foot, and effective advertisement. These store operators could have an edge over other retailers during financial crises or recessions, when many consumers could be looking for less expensive alternatives.
@Food: Specialty/Candy (-2.68% weekly)A specialty/candy manufacturer specializes in one or more of the following: chocolate, candies, pasta, condiments, seasonings, among other items. Hershey Company, McCormick & Company and J.M. Smucker Company are some of the major firms in this segment. Demand for this industry’s products comes from both institutions/restaurants as well as households.
@Tobacco (-1.34% weekly)The industry is engaged in the growth, preparation for sale, advertisement, and distribution of tobacco and tobacco-related products like cigarettes. In 2017, tobacco companies spent an estimated $9.36 billion marketing cigarettes and smokeless tobacco in the U.S. – an amount that translates to more than $25 million each day (according to a CDC report). Philip Morris International Inc., Altria Group Inc., and British American Tobacco plc are some major cigar makers. In recent times, vaping or the use of e-cigarette (does not burn tobacco) is gaining momentum – several established cigarette makers are trying to expand their footprint in this new market.
| COST | MDLZ | PM | |
| Capitalization | 444B | 73.5B | 246B |
| EBITDA | 14.1B | 4.97B | 17.5B |
| Gain YTD | 16.109 | 7.274 | -0.749 |
| P/E Ratio | 52.00 | 30.29 | 21.72 |
| Revenue | 286B | 38.5B | 40.6B |
| Total Cash | 18.2B | N/A | N/A |
| Total Debt | 8.17B | 21.8B | 48.8B |
COST | MDLZ | PM | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 18 | 15 | 68 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 94 Overvalued | 25 Undervalued | 23 Undervalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 11 | 81 | 19 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 32 | 72 | 3 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 54 | 59 | 61 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 73 | 23 | 81 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 85 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
PM's Valuation (23) in the Tobacco industry is in the same range as MDLZ (25) in the Food Major Diversified industry, and is significantly better than the same rating for COST (94) in the Specialty Stores industry. This means that PM's stock grew similarly to MDLZ’s and significantly faster than COST’s over the last 12 months.
COST's Profit vs Risk Rating (11) in the Specialty Stores industry is in the same range as PM (19) in the Tobacco industry, and is significantly better than the same rating for MDLZ (81) in the Food Major Diversified industry. This means that COST's stock grew similarly to PM’s and significantly faster than MDLZ’s over the last 12 months.
PM's SMR Rating (3) in the Tobacco industry is in the same range as COST (32) in the Specialty Stores industry, and is significantly better than the same rating for MDLZ (72) in the Food Major Diversified industry. This means that PM's stock grew similarly to COST’s and significantly faster than MDLZ’s over the last 12 months.
COST's Price Growth Rating (54) in the Specialty Stores industry is in the same range as MDLZ (59) in the Food Major Diversified industry, and is in the same range as PM (61) in the Tobacco industry. This means that COST's stock grew similarly to MDLZ’s and similarly to PM’s over the last 12 months.
MDLZ's P/E Growth Rating (23) in the Food Major Diversified industry is somewhat better than the same rating for COST (73) in the Specialty Stores industry, and is somewhat better than the same rating for PM (81) in the Tobacco industry. This means that MDLZ's stock grew somewhat faster than COST’s and somewhat faster than PM’s over the last 12 months.
| COST | MDLZ | PM | |
|---|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 40% | N/A | 2 days ago 68% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 68% | 2 days ago 51% | 2 days ago 55% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 47% | 2 days ago 52% | 2 days ago 48% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 56% | 2 days ago 58% | 2 days ago 55% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 65% | 2 days ago 56% | 2 days ago 50% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 62% | 2 days ago 51% | 2 days ago 51% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 63% | 2 days ago 53% | 10 days ago 57% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 5 days ago 38% | 6 days ago 50% | 3 days ago 48% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 43% | N/A | N/A |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 51% | 2 days ago 39% | 2 days ago 34% |
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MDLZ and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, MDLZ has been loosely correlated with GIS. These tickers have moved in lockstep 65% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if MDLZ jumps, then GIS could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To MDLZ | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MDLZ | 100% | +0.32% | ||
| GIS - MDLZ | 65% Loosely correlated | +0.51% | ||
| CAG - MDLZ | 59% Loosely correlated | +1.09% | ||
| CPB - MDLZ | 58% Loosely correlated | +0.19% | ||
| KHC - MDLZ | 58% Loosely correlated | -0.53% | ||
| MKC - MDLZ | 58% Loosely correlated | +1.99% | ||
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