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COST or MO or PEP
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Costco Wholesale Corporation (COST) vs. Altria Group (MO) vs. PepsiCo (PEP) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- COST leads YTD performance at +15.7%, driven by strong Q1 revenue of $69.6B (+9.2% YoY) and membership growth, outperforming peers in recent market activity.
- MO offers the highest dividend yield (~6.4%) among the three, with YTD gains of +15.4%, bolstered by oral nicotine growth amid declining cigarette volumes.
- PEP trails YTD at +11-12%, facing sales volume pressures but supported by a reliable 3.5% yield and diversification into healthier beverages.
- Defensive consumer staples positioning favors all three in volatile markets, but COST's lower beta (~0.8) and consistent sales momentum highlight relative stability.
- Valuations show MO cheapest on forward P/E (~12x), while COST trades at a premium (~45x) reflecting growth expectations.
Introduction
This comparison examines COST, MO, and PEP—defensive consumer staples giants—in today's uncertain market. COST dominates membership retail, MO leads U.S. tobacco, and PEP spans beverages and snacks. Traders seeking income via dividends, growth via resilient demand, or hedges against volatility will find value in analyzing their relative performance, valuations, and sector exposures. Recent earnings beats and strategic shifts underscore their appeal amid economic headwinds.
COST Overview and Recent Performance
Costco Wholesale Corporation (COST) operates membership warehouses globally, offering bulk goods and private labels. In recent weeks, shares have shown resilience, up ~15.7% YTD near $998, buoyed by Q1 CY2026 results: revenue hit $69.6B (+9.2% YoY, beating estimates), EPS $4.58 (+0.8% surprise), and membership fees +13.6%. Tariff refund potential for price cuts and tech upgrades in checkouts have lifted sentiment, with analysts raising targets despite premium valuations. YTD outperformance versus retail peers reflects strong consumer value-seeking.
MO Overview and Recent Performance
Altria Group, Inc. (MO) dominates U.S. tobacco with Marlboro cigarettes and expanding oral nicotine like on!. Shares hover near $66.50, up ~15.4% YTD, supported by a ~6.4% yield amid scrutiny on dividend sustainability. Recent market activity shows ~3% monthly gains, driven by oral segment strength offsetting cigarette declines. Price target hikes and forward P/E ~12x signal value, though volume pressures persist. Defensive appeal shines in volatility, with beta ~0.5.
PEP Overview and Recent Performance
PepsiCo, Inc. (PEP) portfolios beverages (Pepsi, Gatorade) and snacks (Lay's, Doritos) worldwide. Trading near $159, up ~11-12% YTD, it lags peers amid volume declines but holds a 3.5% yield. Recent weeks reflect revenue growth challenges, offset by pricing and health-focused innovations. Beta ~0.4 underscores stability, with forward P/E ~18.7x versus trailing 26.8x. Diversification cushions sentiment in softening demand environments.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
COST ($443B cap) thrives on membership-driven retail growth (~9% sales rise), contrasting MO ($112B) and PEP ($218B)'s tobacco/beverage staples. Momentum favors COST (recent beats), while MO excels in yield (6.4% vs. PEP 3.5%, COST 0.5%). Risks: MO's volume erosion, PEP's demand softness, COST's high P/E (~45x vs. MO ~12x, PEP ~19x fwd). Low betas (COST 0.8, MO 0.5, PEP 0.4) suit defensives; sentiment tilts to COST's catalysts like expansions.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Tickeron's AI leans toward COST currently, citing superior trend consistency via earnings momentum, stability in membership revenue, and relative YTD strength amid retail resilience. Probabilistic edge over MO (yield-focused) and PEP (volume hurdles) stems from observable catalysts like tariff benefits.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer. Disclaimers and Limitations
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
COST’s FA Score shows that 2 FA rating(s) are green whileMO’s FA Score has 4 green FA rating(s), and PEP’s FA Score reflects 2 green FA rating(s).
- COST’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
- MO’s FA Score: 4 green, 1 red.
- PEP’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
COST’s TA Score shows that 5 TA indicator(s) are bullish while MO’s TA Score has 3 bullish TA indicator(s), and PEP’s TA Score reflects 5 bullish TA indicator(s).
- COST’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 5 bearish.
- MO’s TA Score: 3 bullish, 5 bearish.
- PEP’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 4 bearish.
Price Growth
COST (@Discount Stores) experienced а +0.14% price change this week, while MO (@Tobacco) price change was -4.76% , and PEP (@Beverages: Non-Alcoholic) price fluctuated +0.39% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Discount Stores industry was +2.34%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +2.71%, and the average quarterly price growth was +7.10%.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Tobacco industry was -1.34%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -0.47%, and the average quarterly price growth was -9.25%.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Beverages: Non-Alcoholic industry was -0.77%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -1.88%, and the average quarterly price growth was +2073.90%.
Reported Earning Dates
COST is expected to report earnings on Jul 29, 2026.
MO is expected to report earnings on Apr 30, 2026.
PEP is expected to report earnings on Jul 14, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Discount Stores (+2.34% weekly)Companies in the discount stores industry specialize in offering substantial discounts on a vast array of retail products. Some companies in this industry also operate general merchandise warehouse clubs. Products sold at discount stores are typically similar to those of any department store, but the pricing of the goods is generally much lower (and hence the name “discount”). Think Dollar General Corporation, Dollar Tree, Inc. and Five Below, Inc. Many discount stores target low-income households and/or price-sensitive consumers as their potential market. Discount stores’ profitability could hinge on factors like competitive pricing, sufficient locations, healthy revenue per square foot, and effective advertisement. These store operators could have an edge over other retailers during financial crises or recessions, when many consumers could be looking for less expensive alternatives.
@Tobacco (-1.34% weekly)The industry is engaged in the growth, preparation for sale, advertisement, and distribution of tobacco and tobacco-related products like cigarettes. In 2017, tobacco companies spent an estimated $9.36 billion marketing cigarettes and smokeless tobacco in the U.S. – an amount that translates to more than $25 million each day (according to a CDC report). Philip Morris International Inc., Altria Group Inc., and British American Tobacco plc are some major cigar makers. In recent times, vaping or the use of e-cigarette (does not burn tobacco) is gaining momentum – several established cigarette makers are trying to expand their footprint in this new market.
@Beverages: Non-Alcoholic (-0.77% weekly)Non-alcoholic drinks include traces of alcohol or low alcohol content or without alcohol or alcohol removed. Functional Beverages, Carbonated Soft Drinks (CSDs), Sports Drinks, Fruit Beverages, and Bottled Water are some common types of non-alcoholic beverages. The largest segment in this market is soft drinks (think Pepsi and Coke). Many established companies in this space have also been stepping up production of low to zero-calorie varieties in recent years, to cater to a rising number of health-conscious consumers. Coca-Cola Company, Pepsico Inc, Keurig Dr Pepper Inc. and Monster Beverage Corporation are some major non-alcoholic beverage makers.
| COST | MO | PEP | |
| Capitalization | 444B | 107B | 216B |
| EBITDA | 14.1B | 10.8B | 15.5B |
| Gain YTD | 16.109 | 13.155 | 10.840 |
| P/E Ratio | 52.00 | 15.58 | 24.75 |
| Revenue | 286B | 20.1B | 93.9B |
| Total Cash | 18.2B | N/A | 9.53B |
| Total Debt | 8.17B | 25.7B | 49.9B |
COST | MO | PEP | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 18 | 55 | 55 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 94 Overvalued | 8 Undervalued | 26 Undervalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 11 | 14 | 59 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 32 | 9 | 21 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 54 | 52 | 34 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 73 | 15 | 42 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 50 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
MO's Valuation (8) in the Tobacco industry is in the same range as PEP (26) in the Beverages Non Alcoholic industry, and is significantly better than the same rating for COST (94) in the Specialty Stores industry. This means that MO's stock grew similarly to PEP’s and significantly faster than COST’s over the last 12 months.
COST's Profit vs Risk Rating (11) in the Specialty Stores industry is in the same range as MO (14) in the Tobacco industry, and is somewhat better than the same rating for PEP (59) in the Beverages Non Alcoholic industry. This means that COST's stock grew similarly to MO’s and somewhat faster than PEP’s over the last 12 months.
MO's SMR Rating (9) in the Tobacco industry is in the same range as PEP (21) in the Beverages Non Alcoholic industry, and is in the same range as COST (32) in the Specialty Stores industry. This means that MO's stock grew similarly to PEP’s and similarly to COST’s over the last 12 months.
PEP's Price Growth Rating (34) in the Beverages Non Alcoholic industry is in the same range as MO (52) in the Tobacco industry, and is in the same range as COST (54) in the Specialty Stores industry. This means that PEP's stock grew similarly to MO’s and similarly to COST’s over the last 12 months.
MO's P/E Growth Rating (15) in the Tobacco industry is in the same range as PEP (42) in the Beverages Non Alcoholic industry, and is somewhat better than the same rating for COST (73) in the Specialty Stores industry. This means that MO's stock grew similarly to PEP’s and somewhat faster than COST’s over the last 12 months.
| COST | MO | PEP | |
|---|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 40% | N/A | 2 days ago 54% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 68% | 2 days ago 58% | 2 days ago 39% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 47% | 2 days ago 35% | 2 days ago 50% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 56% | 2 days ago 40% | 2 days ago 43% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 65% | 2 days ago 40% | 2 days ago 42% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 62% | 2 days ago 31% | 2 days ago 44% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 63% | 10 days ago 53% | 10 days ago 39% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 5 days ago 38% | 4 days ago 37% | 4 days ago 44% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 43% | N/A | 2 days ago 52% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 51% | 2 days ago 23% | 2 days ago 35% |
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