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COST or PG or PM
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Costco Wholesale (COST) vs. Procter & Gamble (PG) vs. Philip Morris International (PM) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- COST leads YTD performance at +12.91%, driven by robust membership growth and Q2 earnings beat, though recent weeks show minor pullbacks amid high valuations.
- PG lags with recent declines due to margin pressures from commodity costs and tariffs, trading at a forward P/E around 22x with modest growth outlook.
- PM offers strong smoke-free product momentum, YTD +2.60%, 3.60% dividend yield, and P/E of 22.47, but faces regulatory headwinds and recent volatility.
- Consumer staples sector shows resilience, but COST's membership model provides superior stability versus PG and PM's exposure to input costs and regulations.
- Valuations cluster at elevated levels: COST ~50x P/E, highlighting growth premium; PM undervalued relative to peers on forward metrics.
- Recent market activity favors defensive plays like these amid volatility, with COST outperforming broader indices over multi-year horizons.
Introduction
This stock comparison examines COST, PG, and PM, three consumer staples giants representing warehouse retail, household essentials, and tobacco alternatives. These stocks appeal to investors seeking defensive positioning in volatile markets, offering relative stability through essential goods demand. Traders may value their dividend profiles and momentum shifts, while long-term holders appreciate growth drivers like membership fees for COST and smoke-free transitions for PM. Amid recent economic pressures including tariffs and commodity inflation, this analysis highlights relative performance, valuations, and sentiment for informed decision-making in stock comparison strategies.
COST Overview and Recent Performance
COST, the leading membership warehouse club operator, thrives on high-volume sales of essentials and discretionary items across global locations. Recent market activity reflects resilience, with YTD returns of +12.91% outpacing the S&P 500's +4.95%. Q2 fiscal 2026 earnings beat estimates at $4.58 per share, fueled by 6.7% comparable sales growth excluding gas and FX, plus membership fee income up double-digits to $1.36 billion. Sentiment benefits from strong executive membership renewals and e-commerce gains, though shares dipped slightly in recent weeks amid broader retail caution and high P/E valuations near 50x. Strategic pricing and international expansion continue supporting traffic and margins in inflationary environments.
PG Overview and Recent Performance
PG, a global leader in household and personal care products like Tide and Pampers, maintains steady demand for everyday essentials. Recent performance shows pressure, with shares down over 6% in the past month amid margin squeezes from rising commodity costs and tariffs. YTD returns trail peers, reflecting softer category volumes and promotional intensity. Analysts project modest Q3 EPS growth to $1.57 and revenue up 4.2%, but consensus estimates have edged lower. Sentiment is tempered by macroeconomic challenges in key markets, though PG's brand strength and dividend aristocrat status provide downside protection. Forward P/E around 22x signals valuation sensitivity to cost pass-through success.
PM Overview and Recent Performance
PM focuses on smoke-free products like IQOS and ZYN, shifting from combustibles amid global regulations. Recent quarters highlight strength, with smoke-free revenues up 15% organically to 41.5% of total, driving full-year 2025 EPS growth to $7.54. YTD +2.60%, shares experienced volatility with a 11% monthly dip, yet multi-year gains exceed 96% over three years. Market sentiment supports transition catalysts, bolstered by 3.60% yield and forward P/E of 19.3x. Regulatory hurdles and cigarette declines pose risks, but high-single-digit volume growth in reduced-risk segments sustains positive positioning in recent market activity.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
COST's warehouse model emphasizes high-margin memberships (double-digit growth) versus PG's branded consumer goods reliant on volume pricing, exposing the latter to input inflation. PM differentiates via smoke-free pivot (44% gross profit share), contrasting traditional tobacco risks with higher growth potential but regulatory sensitivity. Recent momentum favors COST (3-month +14%), while PG and PM lag amid costs and oversight. Risk profiles: COST lowest beta via loyalty; PM elevated from FX/geopolitics. Valuations show COST premium (50x P/E), PG/ PM ~22x with yields 2-3.6%. Sentiment tilts to COST's stability in staples sector rotation.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Tickeron's AI currently favors COST for its consistent trend strength, membership-driven stability, and superior relative performance amid market shifts. Observable catalysts like earnings beats and comp sales growth position it ahead probabilistically, though elevated valuations warrant monitoring. PM trails closely on smoke-free upside, while PG lags on margin headwinds.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer. Disclaimers and Limitations
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
COST’s FA Score shows that 2 FA rating(s) are green whilePG’s FA Score has 1 green FA rating(s), and PM’s FA Score reflects 3 green FA rating(s).
- COST’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
- PG’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- PM’s FA Score: 3 green, 2 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
COST’s TA Score shows that 5 TA indicator(s) are bullish while PG’s TA Score has 4 bullish TA indicator(s), and PM’s TA Score reflects 4 bullish TA indicator(s).
- COST’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 5 bearish.
- PG’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 4 bearish.
- PM’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 3 bearish.
Price Growth
COST (@Discount Stores) experienced а +0.14% price change this week, while PG (@Household/Personal Care) price change was +1.22% , and PM (@Tobacco) price fluctuated -1.66% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Discount Stores industry was +2.34%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +2.71%, and the average quarterly price growth was +7.10%.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Household/Personal Care industry was +0.96%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +3.95%, and the average quarterly price growth was -8.44%.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Tobacco industry was -1.34%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -0.47%, and the average quarterly price growth was -9.25%.
Reported Earning Dates
COST is expected to report earnings on Jul 29, 2026.
PG is expected to report earnings on Apr 24, 2026.
PM is expected to report earnings on Apr 22, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Discount Stores (+2.34% weekly)Companies in the discount stores industry specialize in offering substantial discounts on a vast array of retail products. Some companies in this industry also operate general merchandise warehouse clubs. Products sold at discount stores are typically similar to those of any department store, but the pricing of the goods is generally much lower (and hence the name “discount”). Think Dollar General Corporation, Dollar Tree, Inc. and Five Below, Inc. Many discount stores target low-income households and/or price-sensitive consumers as their potential market. Discount stores’ profitability could hinge on factors like competitive pricing, sufficient locations, healthy revenue per square foot, and effective advertisement. These store operators could have an edge over other retailers during financial crises or recessions, when many consumers could be looking for less expensive alternatives.
@Household/Personal Care (+0.96% weekly)Household/Personal Care companies sell products for home cleaning and/or personal hygiene and grooming purposes. Products of this industry include detergents, shampoos, soaps, cosmetics, fabric conditioners and infant care fragrances. Procter & Gamble, Unilever, Estee Lauder and Colgate-Palmolive are some of the biggest names in the business. A lot of the products become a necessary part of people’s daily routine, and therefore the industry is relatively less vulnerable to macroeconomic downturns. At the same time, product quality, consumer safety, and ease of use are extremely critical factors for a company to survive competition and earn recognition in this industry.
@Tobacco (-1.34% weekly)The industry is engaged in the growth, preparation for sale, advertisement, and distribution of tobacco and tobacco-related products like cigarettes. In 2017, tobacco companies spent an estimated $9.36 billion marketing cigarettes and smokeless tobacco in the U.S. – an amount that translates to more than $25 million each day (according to a CDC report). Philip Morris International Inc., Altria Group Inc., and British American Tobacco plc are some major cigar makers. In recent times, vaping or the use of e-cigarette (does not burn tobacco) is gaining momentum – several established cigarette makers are trying to expand their footprint in this new market.
| COST | PG | PM | |
| Capitalization | 444B | 341B | 246B |
| EBITDA | 14.1B | 24.5B | 17.5B |
| Gain YTD | 16.109 | 3.254 | -0.749 |
| P/E Ratio | 52.00 | 21.77 | 21.72 |
| Revenue | 286B | 85.3B | 40.6B |
| Total Cash | 18.2B | 10.8B | N/A |
| Total Debt | 8.17B | 36.6B | 48.8B |
COST | PG | PM | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 18 | 51 | 68 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 94 Overvalued | 39 Fair valued | 23 Undervalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 11 | 54 | 19 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 32 | 30 | 3 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 54 | 60 | 61 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 73 | 81 | 81 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 50 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
PM's Valuation (23) in the Tobacco industry is in the same range as PG (39) in the Household Or Personal Care industry, and is significantly better than the same rating for COST (94) in the Specialty Stores industry. This means that PM's stock grew similarly to PG’s and significantly faster than COST’s over the last 12 months.
COST's Profit vs Risk Rating (11) in the Specialty Stores industry is in the same range as PM (19) in the Tobacco industry, and is somewhat better than the same rating for PG (54) in the Household Or Personal Care industry. This means that COST's stock grew similarly to PM’s and somewhat faster than PG’s over the last 12 months.
PM's SMR Rating (3) in the Tobacco industry is in the same range as PG (30) in the Household Or Personal Care industry, and is in the same range as COST (32) in the Specialty Stores industry. This means that PM's stock grew similarly to PG’s and similarly to COST’s over the last 12 months.
COST's Price Growth Rating (54) in the Specialty Stores industry is in the same range as PG (60) in the Household Or Personal Care industry, and is in the same range as PM (61) in the Tobacco industry. This means that COST's stock grew similarly to PG’s and similarly to PM’s over the last 12 months.
COST's P/E Growth Rating (73) in the Specialty Stores industry is in the same range as PG (81) in the Household Or Personal Care industry, and is in the same range as PM (81) in the Tobacco industry. This means that COST's stock grew similarly to PG’s and similarly to PM’s over the last 12 months.
| COST | PG | PM | |
|---|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 40% | 2 days ago 68% | 2 days ago 68% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 68% | 2 days ago 45% | 2 days ago 55% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 47% | 2 days ago 41% | 2 days ago 48% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 56% | 2 days ago 46% | 2 days ago 55% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 65% | 2 days ago 43% | 2 days ago 50% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 62% | 2 days ago 43% | 2 days ago 51% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 63% | 10 days ago 45% | 10 days ago 57% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 5 days ago 38% | 3 days ago 42% | 3 days ago 48% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 43% | 2 days ago 36% | N/A |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 51% | 2 days ago 35% | 2 days ago 34% |
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