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COST or PM or TGT
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Costco Wholesale Corporation (COST) vs. Philip Morris International Inc. (PM) vs. Target Corporation (TGT) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- COST leads with market resilience, boasting a $444B market cap and 16.32% YTD return, driven by strong membership growth and fiscal results despite geopolitical cost pressures.
- PM offers defensive stability with a 3.42% dividend yield and low beta of 0.40, supported by smoke-free product momentum and recent quarterly dividend declaration.
- TGT shows strongest YTD gains at 20.99% but trades at the lowest P/E of 14.40 amid price cuts on 3,000 items to revive sales.
- Valuation contrasts: COST at premium 52.01 trailing P/E, PM at 23.94, TGT most attractive for value seekers.
- Recent momentum favors TGT in retail recovery, while COST and PM emphasize consistent growth in volatile markets.
Introduction
This stock comparison examines COST, PM, and TGT—leaders in warehouse retail, tobacco, and general merchandise. These consumer-facing giants navigate shifting sentiment amid geopolitical tensions, inflation pressures, and sector rotations. Investors seeking defensive stability may favor PM's dividends, while growth-oriented traders eye COST's membership model. Value hunters could target TGT's discounted valuation. Understanding their relative performance aids portfolio positioning in the current market environment.
COST Overview and Recent Performance
COST, the Costco Wholesale Corporation, operates membership-based warehouse clubs emphasizing bulk goods and low prices. In recent market activity, shares have demonstrated resilience, with a 16.32% YTD return and 11.43% over one year, trading around $1,002 with a $444B market cap. Strong fiscal Q1 2026 results showed 8.3% revenue growth and 11.3% net income rise, fueled by membership fees and comparable sales up 6.7% excluding gas and FX. Sentiment remains positive due to operational excellence, though Middle East tensions and tariff risks pose cost headwinds. At a trailing P/E of 52.01 and 0.52% yield, COST commands a premium for its defensive positioning and beta of 0.99.
PM Overview and Recent Performance
PM, Philip Morris International Inc., focuses on cigarettes and smoke-free products like IQOS, operating globally outside the U.S. Recent weeks highlight steady performance with an 8.37% YTD return and 19.59% one-year gain, shares near $175 and $271B market cap. Growth in reduced-risk products offsets combustible declines, bolstered by a $1.47 quarterly dividend (3.42% yield). Q4 2025 earnings topped estimates despite some post-earnings pullback. Low beta of 0.40 underscores stability, with trailing P/E at 23.94. Investor sentiment supports its transition strategy amid regulatory scrutiny.
TGT Overview and Recent Performance
TGT, Target Corporation, is a general merchandise retailer with strong omnichannel capabilities and private labels. Shares have surged 20.99% YTD and 16.95% over one year, trading around $117 with $53B market cap. Recent price cuts on over 3,000 items aim to counter sales softness, following Q4 results with earnings beats but revenue misses. Comparable sales pressures reflect consumer caution, yet turnaround efforts like store remodels boost optimism. Beta of 1.11 signals higher volatility, with attractive trailing P/E of 14.40 and 3.89% yield drawing value focus.
Trending AI Robots
Tickeron’s Trending AI Robots page features the top 25 AI trading bots out of 351 total bots, curated by AI analysis for superior performance in current conditions like volatility and sector shifts. These bots deliver impressive stats, including annualized returns up to +208%, win rates from 52% to 95%, and profit factors reaching 25.83, trading diverse assets from semiconductors (e.g., SOXL at +110%) to consumer staples. A dedicated bot targets COST, NFLX, HD, and PG with +23% annualized return and 72% win rate. Varying by strategy—scalping, trends, or hedging—these suit short-term traders to long-term investors. Explore Trending AI Robots to align bots with your market outlook.
Head-to-Head Comparison
COST’s subscription model drives recurring revenue and low churn, contrasting TGT’s transaction-based retail exposed to discretionary spending cycles. PM leverages global tobacco volumes shifting to smoke-free, offering sector diversification. Growth drivers include COST’s international expansion versus TGT’s price competitiveness. Recent momentum peaks for TGT (21% YTD), trails COST (16%), with PM steady at 8%. Risks: COST faces premium valuation (P/E 52), PM regulatory hurdles (P/E 24), TGT sales volatility (P/E 14, beta 1.11). PM wins yields (3.4%), TGT value sensitivity.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Tickeron’s AI currently leans toward COST for its trend consistency, membership stability, and outperformance in retail amid volatility, evidenced by bots trading it with solid returns. PM appeals probabilistically for income and low beta, while TGT offers value upside if sales rebound. Relative positioning favors COST’s catalysts in consumer defensive flows.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full Disclaimers and Limitations.
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
COST’s FA Score shows that 2 FA rating(s) are green whilePM’s FA Score has 3 green FA rating(s), and TGT’s FA Score reflects 2 green FA rating(s).
- COST’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
- PM’s FA Score: 3 green, 2 red.
- TGT’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
COST’s TA Score shows that 5 TA indicator(s) are bullish while PM’s TA Score has 4 bullish TA indicator(s), and TGT’s TA Score reflects 4 bullish TA indicator(s).
- COST’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 5 bearish.
- PM’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 4 bearish.
- TGT’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 3 bearish.
Price Growth
COST (@Discount Stores) experienced а +0.14% price change this week, while PM (@Tobacco) price change was -1.66% , and TGT (@Discount Stores) price fluctuated +4.88% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Discount Stores industry was +2.91%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +4.54%, and the average quarterly price growth was +9.51%.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Tobacco industry was -1.21%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +1.15%, and the average quarterly price growth was -8.55%.
Reported Earning Dates
COST is expected to report earnings on Jul 29, 2026.
PM is expected to report earnings on Apr 22, 2026.
TGT is expected to report earnings on May 20, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Discount Stores (+2.91% weekly)Companies in the discount stores industry specialize in offering substantial discounts on a vast array of retail products. Some companies in this industry also operate general merchandise warehouse clubs. Products sold at discount stores are typically similar to those of any department store, but the pricing of the goods is generally much lower (and hence the name “discount”). Think Dollar General Corporation, Dollar Tree, Inc. and Five Below, Inc. Many discount stores target low-income households and/or price-sensitive consumers as their potential market. Discount stores’ profitability could hinge on factors like competitive pricing, sufficient locations, healthy revenue per square foot, and effective advertisement. These store operators could have an edge over other retailers during financial crises or recessions, when many consumers could be looking for less expensive alternatives.
@Tobacco (-1.21% weekly)The industry is engaged in the growth, preparation for sale, advertisement, and distribution of tobacco and tobacco-related products like cigarettes. In 2017, tobacco companies spent an estimated $9.36 billion marketing cigarettes and smokeless tobacco in the U.S. – an amount that translates to more than $25 million each day (according to a CDC report). Philip Morris International Inc., Altria Group Inc., and British American Tobacco plc are some major cigar makers. In recent times, vaping or the use of e-cigarette (does not burn tobacco) is gaining momentum – several established cigarette makers are trying to expand their footprint in this new market.
| COST | PM | TGT | |
| Capitalization | 443B | 246B | 59B |
| EBITDA | 14.1B | 17.5B | 8.35B |
| Gain YTD | 16.109 | -0.900 | 34.531 |
| P/E Ratio | 51.89 | 21.69 | 16.01 |
| Revenue | 286B | 40.6B | 105B |
| Total Cash | 18.2B | N/A | 5.49B |
| Total Debt | 8.17B | 48.8B | 20.3B |
COST | PM | TGT | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 50 | 50 | 50 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 94 Overvalued | 23 Undervalued | 67 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 11 | 19 | 100 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 32 | 3 | 38 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 35 | 60 | 12 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 73 | 81 | 24 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 50 | 23 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
PM's Valuation (23) in the Tobacco industry is somewhat better than the same rating for TGT (67) in the Specialty Stores industry, and is significantly better than the same rating for COST (94) in the Specialty Stores industry. This means that PM's stock grew somewhat faster than TGT’s and significantly faster than COST’s over the last 12 months.
COST's Profit vs Risk Rating (11) in the Specialty Stores industry is in the same range as PM (19) in the Tobacco industry, and is significantly better than the same rating for TGT (100) in the Specialty Stores industry. This means that COST's stock grew similarly to PM’s and significantly faster than TGT’s over the last 12 months.
PM's SMR Rating (3) in the Tobacco industry is in the same range as COST (32) in the Specialty Stores industry, and is somewhat better than the same rating for TGT (38) in the Specialty Stores industry. This means that PM's stock grew similarly to COST’s and somewhat faster than TGT’s over the last 12 months.
TGT's Price Growth Rating (12) in the Specialty Stores industry is in the same range as COST (35) in the Specialty Stores industry, and is somewhat better than the same rating for PM (60) in the Tobacco industry. This means that TGT's stock grew similarly to COST’s and somewhat faster than PM’s over the last 12 months.
TGT's P/E Growth Rating (24) in the Specialty Stores industry is somewhat better than the same rating for COST (73) in the Specialty Stores industry, and is somewhat better than the same rating for PM (81) in the Tobacco industry. This means that TGT's stock grew somewhat faster than COST’s and somewhat faster than PM’s over the last 12 months.
| COST | PM | TGT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 40% | 4 days ago 68% | N/A |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 68% | 4 days ago 55% | 4 days ago 57% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 47% | 4 days ago 48% | 4 days ago 64% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 56% | 4 days ago 55% | 4 days ago 52% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 65% | 4 days ago 50% | 4 days ago 67% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 62% | 4 days ago 51% | 4 days ago 68% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 63% | 12 days ago 57% | 4 days ago 67% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 7 days ago 38% | 5 days ago 48% | 8 days ago 64% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 43% | N/A | 4 days ago 71% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 51% | 4 days ago 34% | 6 days ago 51% |
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COST and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, COST has been loosely correlated with WMT. These tickers have moved in lockstep 57% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if COST jumps, then WMT could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To COST | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COST | 100% | +1.28% | ||
| WMT - COST | 57% Loosely correlated | +2.15% | ||
| BJ - COST | 46% Loosely correlated | -0.18% | ||
| PSMT - COST | 30% Poorly correlated | +3.26% | ||
| OLLI - COST | 26% Poorly correlated | +0.30% | ||
| TGT - COST | 23% Poorly correlated | +3.17% | ||
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PM and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, PM has been loosely correlated with BTI. These tickers have moved in lockstep 52% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if PM jumps, then BTI could also see price increases.
TGT and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, TGT has been loosely correlated with DLTR. These tickers have moved in lockstep 33% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if TGT jumps, then DLTR could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To TGT | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TGT | 100% | +1.83% | ||
| DLTR - TGT | 33% Loosely correlated | +1.25% | ||
| DG - TGT | 26% Poorly correlated | -0.17% | ||
| PSMT - TGT | 26% Poorly correlated | -1.59% | ||
| COST - TGT | 25% Poorly correlated | -0.21% | ||
| OLLI - TGT | 24% Poorly correlated | -1.20% | ||
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