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COST or PM or WMT
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Costco Wholesale (COST) vs. Philip Morris International (PM) vs. Walmart (WMT) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- COST leads YTD performance at +12.91%, driven by robust membership growth and Q2 fiscal 2026 sales up 9.1%.
- PM shows resilience in smoke-free products amid recent share price pressure, with YTD +2.60% and reaffirmed 2026 EPS growth of 11-13%.
- WMT delivers strong 1-year returns of +40.32%, supported by international sales growth and e-commerce gains, though facing recent pullbacks.
- All three exhibit premium valuations, with COST P/E at 50.56, WMT at 43.60, and PM lower amid sector shifts.
- Consumer staples resilience highlights membership models for COST and WMT, versus PM's transition to reduced-risk products.
- Recent market activity shows short-term volatility, with COST and WMT outperforming broader indices YTD.
Introduction
This stock comparison examines COST, PM, and WMT—defensive consumer staples leaders—in the current market environment. These companies appeal to investors seeking stability amid volatility, with COST and WMT leveraging membership and scale in retail, while PM pivots to smoke-free alternatives. Traders may value their relative performance and momentum, as recent quarters highlight sales resilience and e-commerce growth. This analysis aids in understanding sector positioning, valuation sensitivity, and potential trade-offs for portfolio allocation.
COST Overview and Recent Performance
Costco Wholesale Corporation (COST) operates membership warehouses globally, emphasizing bulk sales and low margins offset by high renewal rates. In recent market activity, shares traded around $972, with YTD gains of 12.91% outperforming the S&P 500's 4.95%. Q2 fiscal 2026 net sales rose 9.1% to $68.24 billion, fueled by comparable sales growth and e-commerce strength, while membership fees hit record levels. Sentiment benefits from expansion plans targeting 30+ annual openings and resilience in traffic despite tariff concerns. Broader performance shows 3-year returns of 106.97%, reflecting operational excellence and pricing discipline.
PM Overview and Recent Performance
Philip Morris International Inc. (PM) focuses on smoke-free products like heated tobacco and pouches, transitioning from traditional cigarettes. Shares hovered near $163, with YTD +2.60% amid a monthly decline of about 11.67% in recent weeks. The company reaffirmed 2026 adjusted EPS growth of 11.1-13.1%, supported by smoke-free volume expansion and organizational shifts to U.S. and International units effective January 2026. Performance reflects regulatory navigation and efficiency gains, with 3-year returns at 96.17% and strong long-term shareholder value.
WMT Overview and Recent Performance
Walmart Inc. (WMT) is the world's largest retailer, blending physical stores, e-commerce, and advertising. Trading around $119, it posted YTD +7.05% and 1-year +40.32%, surpassing peers. Recent quarters showed international sales up 7.5% constantly currency, with e-commerce gains of 17%, amid new store openings and AI pricing initiatives. Sentiment is bolstered by scale and omnichannel growth, though facing consumer backlash on changes; 3-year returns reached 162.32%.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
COST, PM, and WMT operate in consumer staples but diverge in models: COST's membership-driven warehouses prioritize loyalty and high-volume essentials, contrasting WMT's broad omnichannel retail with advertising and international exposure. PM targets nicotine transition, offering growth via smoke-free shift but higher regulatory risks versus retailers' tariff sensitivities. Recent momentum favors COST YTD, with WMT stronger longer-term; PM lags short-term but projects EPS acceleration. Valuations reflect premiums—COST highest P/E amid growth, PM most attractive—while sentiment ties to consumer resilience and digital catalysts.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Tickeron’s AI currently favors COST due to superior trend consistency, YTD outperformance, and catalysts like membership expansion and sales momentum, positioning it strongly relative to peers amid defensive demand.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer. Disclaimers and Limitations
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
COST’s FA Score shows that 2 FA rating(s) are green whilePM’s FA Score has 3 green FA rating(s), and WMT’s FA Score reflects 2 green FA rating(s).
- COST’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
- PM’s FA Score: 3 green, 2 red.
- WMT’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
COST’s TA Score shows that 5 TA indicator(s) are bullish while PM’s TA Score has 4 bullish TA indicator(s), and WMT’s TA Score reflects 5 bullish TA indicator(s).
- COST’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 5 bearish.
- PM’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 4 bearish.
- WMT’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 4 bearish.
Price Growth
COST (@Discount Stores) experienced а +0.14% price change this week, while PM (@Tobacco) price change was -1.66% , and WMT (@Discount Stores) price fluctuated +0.58% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Discount Stores industry was +2.34%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +2.71%, and the average quarterly price growth was +7.10%.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Tobacco industry was -1.34%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -0.47%, and the average quarterly price growth was -9.25%.
Reported Earning Dates
COST is expected to report earnings on Jul 29, 2026.
PM is expected to report earnings on Apr 22, 2026.
WMT is expected to report earnings on May 14, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Discount Stores (+2.34% weekly)Companies in the discount stores industry specialize in offering substantial discounts on a vast array of retail products. Some companies in this industry also operate general merchandise warehouse clubs. Products sold at discount stores are typically similar to those of any department store, but the pricing of the goods is generally much lower (and hence the name “discount”). Think Dollar General Corporation, Dollar Tree, Inc. and Five Below, Inc. Many discount stores target low-income households and/or price-sensitive consumers as their potential market. Discount stores’ profitability could hinge on factors like competitive pricing, sufficient locations, healthy revenue per square foot, and effective advertisement. These store operators could have an edge over other retailers during financial crises or recessions, when many consumers could be looking for less expensive alternatives.
@Tobacco (-1.34% weekly)The industry is engaged in the growth, preparation for sale, advertisement, and distribution of tobacco and tobacco-related products like cigarettes. In 2017, tobacco companies spent an estimated $9.36 billion marketing cigarettes and smokeless tobacco in the U.S. – an amount that translates to more than $25 million each day (according to a CDC report). Philip Morris International Inc., Altria Group Inc., and British American Tobacco plc are some major cigar makers. In recent times, vaping or the use of e-cigarette (does not burn tobacco) is gaining momentum – several established cigarette makers are trying to expand their footprint in this new market.
| COST | PM | WMT | |
| Capitalization | 444B | 246B | 1.02T |
| EBITDA | 14.1B | 17.5B | 46.5B |
| Gain YTD | 16.109 | -0.749 | 14.677 |
| P/E Ratio | 52.00 | 21.72 | 46.70 |
| Revenue | 286B | 40.6B | 713B |
| Total Cash | 18.2B | N/A | 10.7B |
| Total Debt | 8.17B | 48.8B | 67.1B |
COST | PM | WMT | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 27 | 76 | 33 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 94 Overvalued | 23 Undervalued | 92 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 11 | 19 | 6 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 32 | 3 | 40 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 35 | 60 | 24 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 73 | 81 | 42 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 50 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
PM's Valuation (23) in the Tobacco industry is significantly better than the same rating for WMT (92) in the Specialty Stores industry, and is significantly better than the same rating for COST (94) in the Specialty Stores industry. This means that PM's stock grew significantly faster than WMT’s and significantly faster than COST’s over the last 12 months.
WMT's Profit vs Risk Rating (6) in the Specialty Stores industry is in the same range as COST (11) in the Specialty Stores industry, and is in the same range as PM (19) in the Tobacco industry. This means that WMT's stock grew similarly to COST’s and similarly to PM’s over the last 12 months.
PM's SMR Rating (3) in the Tobacco industry is in the same range as COST (32) in the Specialty Stores industry, and is somewhat better than the same rating for WMT (40) in the Specialty Stores industry. This means that PM's stock grew similarly to COST’s and somewhat faster than WMT’s over the last 12 months.
WMT's Price Growth Rating (24) in the Specialty Stores industry is in the same range as COST (35) in the Specialty Stores industry, and is somewhat better than the same rating for PM (60) in the Tobacco industry. This means that WMT's stock grew similarly to COST’s and somewhat faster than PM’s over the last 12 months.
WMT's P/E Growth Rating (42) in the Specialty Stores industry is in the same range as COST (73) in the Specialty Stores industry, and is somewhat better than the same rating for PM (81) in the Tobacco industry. This means that WMT's stock grew similarly to COST’s and somewhat faster than PM’s over the last 12 months.
| COST | PM | WMT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 40% | 3 days ago 68% | N/A |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 68% | 3 days ago 55% | 3 days ago 29% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 47% | 3 days ago 48% | 3 days ago 59% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 56% | 3 days ago 55% | 3 days ago 66% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 65% | 3 days ago 50% | 3 days ago 55% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 62% | 3 days ago 51% | 3 days ago 53% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 63% | 11 days ago 57% | 3 days ago 55% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 6 days ago 38% | 4 days ago 48% | 7 days ago 34% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 43% | N/A | 3 days ago 41% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 51% | 3 days ago 34% | 3 days ago 25% |
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WMT and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, WMT has been loosely correlated with COST. These tickers have moved in lockstep 66% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if WMT jumps, then COST could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To WMT | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WMT | 100% | +2.15% | ||
| COST - WMT | 66% Loosely correlated | +1.28% | ||
| BJ - WMT | 38% Loosely correlated | -0.18% | ||
| PSMT - WMT | 36% Loosely correlated | +3.26% | ||
| TGT - WMT | 30% Poorly correlated | +3.17% | ||
| TBBB - WMT | 21% Poorly correlated | +2.19% | ||
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