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CWST or GFL or RSG
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Casella Waste Systems (CWST) vs. GFL Environmental (GFL) vs. Republic Services (RSG) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- CWST surged on strong Q1 results with revenue up 9.6% year-over-year, leading recent sector momentum.
- GFL swung to Q1 adjusted profit, expanded EBITDA margins to 29.1%, and raised 2026 guidance amid solid pricing gains.
- RSG, the sector leader, gained FTC approval for a key acquisition and offers a 1.21% dividend yield with stable margins.
- All three stocks operate in the resilient waste management sector, with year-to-date gains of 11% for CWST, 10% for GFL, and 2% for RSG.
- RSG trades at the lowest trailing P/E (price-to-earnings) ratio of 30, compared to 104 for GFL and over 700 for CWST, reflecting valuation differences.
Introduction
In the defensive waste management sector, CWST, GFL, and RSG offer exposure to steady demand for collection, recycling, and disposal services. This comparison analyzes their recent performance, business models, and market positioning amid pricing strength and acquisition activity. Investors seeking growth in regional players or stability in industry giants, as well as traders eyeing short-term momentum, will find insights into relative strengths and trade-offs in today's environment.
CWST Overview and Recent Performance
Casella Waste Systems (CWST) provides waste collection, transfer, disposal, and recycling services primarily in the northeastern U.S. In recent market activity, shares have gained momentum, trading around $87 with a market cap of $5.5 billion. Q1 CY2026 results beat revenue expectations by 9.6% year-over-year, driven by pricing strength and acquisitions, prompting an 8-10% stock surge and a Barclays upgrade to overweight. Year-to-date performance stands at 11%, though high trailing P/E (price-to-earnings) ratio of 724 reflects low EPS (earnings per share) of $0.12. Sentiment has shifted positively on operational execution, despite a 52-week range of $74-$121.
GFL Overview and Recent Performance
GFL Environmental (GFL) delivers integrated environmental services across North America, emphasizing solid waste and infrastructure. Shares trade near $39 with a $13.9 billion market cap. Recent Q1 2026 results showed record profitability, with revenue of $1.64 billion (up 8.5% adjusted), EBITDA margins expanding 180 basis points to 29.1% on 7% pricing gains, leading to raised full-year guidance and a post-earnings pop. Year-to-date up 10%, with beta of 0.51 indicating low volatility; trailing P/E at 104 but forward at 42 suggests earnings growth potential. Ongoing M&A, including Secure Waste scrutiny, influences sentiment in recent weeks.
RSG Overview and Recent Performance
Republic Services (RSG), a leading U.S. waste management provider, focuses on non-hazardous solid waste collection and recycling. Trading around $206 with a $64 billion market cap, it remains the sector's scale leader. Recent weeks feature FTC approval for the Robinson Waste acquisition in Utah, supporting expansion, ahead of Q1 earnings on May 7. Year-to-date gain of 2% trails peers amid a share pullback, but 1.21% dividend yield and trailing P/E of 30 offer value. Beta of 0.44 underscores stability, with analysts noting potential undervaluation despite mixed returns.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
CWST and GFL emphasize growth via regional acquisitions and pricing, contrasting RSG's national scale and efficiency. Momentum favors CWST's recent surge and GFL's guidance raise over RSG's steadier path. Risks include M&A integration for smaller peers versus RSG's regulatory maturity. Sector exposure is uniform—waste volumes resilient—but CWST's higher beta (0.77) signals more sensitivity than GFL (0.51) or RSG (0.44). Valuations highlight trade-offs: RSG's attractive multiples versus growth premiums on others. Sentiment tilts toward momentum names amid Q1 beats, though RSG's dividend anchors defensive positioning.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Tickeron's AI currently favors CWST for superior recent trend consistency, Q1 catalysts, and analyst upgrades, positioning it ahead probabilistically in the near term versus GFL's M&A risks and RSG's muted momentum—though RSG suits stability seekers.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
CWST’s FA Score shows that 1 FA rating(s) are green whileGFL’s FA Score has 0 green FA rating(s), and RSG’s FA Score reflects 1 green FA rating(s).
- CWST’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- GFL’s FA Score: 0 green, 5 red.
- RSG’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
CWST’s TA Score shows that 4 TA indicator(s) are bullish while GFL’s TA Score has 4 bullish TA indicator(s), and RSG’s TA Score reflects 4 bullish TA indicator(s).
- CWST’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 4 bearish.
- GFL’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 6 bearish.
- RSG’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 5 bearish.
Price Growth
CWST (@Environmental Services) experienced а -3.73% price change this week, while GFL (@Environmental Services) price change was -2.81% , and RSG (@Environmental Services) price fluctuated -4.27% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Environmental Services industry was +3.01%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +2.31%, and the average quarterly price growth was +1.94%.
Reported Earning Dates
CWST is expected to report earnings on Jul 23, 2026.
RSG is expected to report earnings on Aug 05, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Environmental Services (+3.01% weekly)Environmental Services includes companies that collect and dispose of hazardous and non-hazardous waste. Their services include removal of toxic waste from soil, removing medical waste etc. Some companies also operate incinerators, sewerage systems, waste treatment plants, and landfills. Demand for waste management is likely to rise with increasing urbanization/industrialization. Waste Management, Inc., Republic Services, Inc., Waste Connections, Inc. and Tetra Tech, Inc. are some of the major companies in this business.
| CWST | GFL | RSG | |
| Capitalization | 5.29B | 13.2B | 60.8B |
| EBITDA | 386M | 1.95B | 5.13B |
| Gain YTD | -15.070 | -14.604 | -6.159 |
| P/E Ratio | 756.18 | 98.27 | 28.37 |
| Revenue | 1.88B | 6.7B | 16.7B |
| Total Cash | 127M | 1.44B | 118M |
| Total Debt | 1.24B | 9.89B | 14.1B |
CWST | GFL | RSG | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 10 | 56 | 53 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 97 Overvalued | 87 Overvalued | 53 Fair valued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 77 | 86 | 30 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 90 | 89 | 48 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 79 | 85 | 62 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 18 | 100 | 75 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 55 | 50 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
RSG's Valuation (53) in the Environmental Services industry is somewhat better than the same rating for GFL (87) in the null industry, and is somewhat better than the same rating for CWST (97) in the Environmental Services industry. This means that RSG's stock grew somewhat faster than GFL’s and somewhat faster than CWST’s over the last 12 months.
RSG's Profit vs Risk Rating (30) in the Environmental Services industry is somewhat better than the same rating for CWST (77) in the Environmental Services industry, and is somewhat better than the same rating for GFL (86) in the null industry. This means that RSG's stock grew somewhat faster than CWST’s and somewhat faster than GFL’s over the last 12 months.
RSG's SMR Rating (48) in the Environmental Services industry is somewhat better than the same rating for GFL (89) in the null industry, and is somewhat better than the same rating for CWST (90) in the Environmental Services industry. This means that RSG's stock grew somewhat faster than GFL’s and somewhat faster than CWST’s over the last 12 months.
RSG's Price Growth Rating (62) in the Environmental Services industry is in the same range as CWST (79) in the Environmental Services industry, and is in the same range as GFL (85) in the null industry. This means that RSG's stock grew similarly to CWST’s and similarly to GFL’s over the last 12 months.
CWST's P/E Growth Rating (18) in the Environmental Services industry is somewhat better than the same rating for RSG (75) in the Environmental Services industry, and is significantly better than the same rating for GFL (100) in the null industry. This means that CWST's stock grew somewhat faster than RSG’s and significantly faster than GFL’s over the last 12 months.
| CWST | GFL | RSG | |
|---|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | N/A | 2 days ago 71% | 2 days ago 65% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 54% | 2 days ago 73% | 2 days ago 45% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 60% | 2 days ago 63% | 2 days ago 33% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 64% | 2 days ago 63% | 2 days ago 33% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 62% | 2 days ago 63% | 2 days ago 35% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 64% | 2 days ago 66% | 2 days ago 39% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 12 days ago 62% | 14 days ago 66% | 13 days ago 52% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 61% | 2 days ago 64% | 2 days ago 36% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 51% | 2 days ago 75% | 2 days ago 55% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 58% | 2 days ago 66% | 2 days ago 43% |
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CWST and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, CWST has been loosely correlated with RSG. These tickers have moved in lockstep 53% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if CWST jumps, then RSG could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To CWST | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CWST | 100% | -2.65% | ||
| RSG - CWST | 53% Loosely correlated | -1.14% | ||
| WM - CWST | 50% Loosely correlated | -0.59% | ||
| WCN - CWST | 48% Loosely correlated | -0.55% | ||
| GFL - CWST | 43% Loosely correlated | -0.24% | ||
| CLH - CWST | 32% Poorly correlated | +0.79% | ||
More | ||||
GFL and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, GFL has been loosely correlated with WCN. These tickers have moved in lockstep 54% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if GFL jumps, then WCN could also see price increases.
RSG and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, RSG has been closely correlated with WM. These tickers have moved in lockstep 80% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if RSG jumps, then WM could also see price increases.