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DEO or EL or HSY
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Diageo plc (DEO) vs. The Estée Lauder Companies Inc. (EL) vs. The Hershey Company (HSY) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- HSY leads with robust YTD gains around 20%, fueled by strong Q4 earnings and salty snacks growth, contrasting DEO and EL's declines amid demand softness.
- DEO faces pressure from halved dividends and lowered FY26 sales outlook after weak H1 results in North America and China, trading near 52-week lows.
- EL shows mixed recovery signals with organic sales growth in skincare and China, but shares remain volatile post-earnings amid tariff concerns.
- HSY offers a 2.7% dividend yield with positive 2026 guidance, while DEO yields over 5% but with cuts; EL at 1.5%.
- Consumer staples resilience favors HSY's momentum over peers' headwinds in recent market activity.
Introduction
This comparison examines DEO, EL, and HSY, all prominent consumer staples names spanning beverages, beauty, and confectionery. These stocks appeal to investors seeking defensive positioning amid economic uncertainty, as staples often exhibit relative stability. Traders may eye relative performance for sector rotation plays, while long-term holders assess dividend sustainability and growth catalysts. Recent earnings highlight contrasts in demand trends, pricing power, and regional exposures, aiding decisions on market positioning in a volatile environment.
DEO Overview and Recent Performance
Diageo plc (DEO), the global leader in premium spirits like Johnnie Walker and Guinness, operates in over 180 countries. In recent weeks, shares have traded near 52-week lows around $78-$80, down over 25% year-to-date following fiscal H1 2026 results showing a 2.8% organic sales decline. Weakness in North America tequila and China white spirits offset Europe gains, prompting a dividend cut to 20 cents interim and FY26 sales outlook trimmed to -2% to -3%. Sentiment reflects concerns over premiumization slowdown and inventory adjustments, though cost discipline supports operating profit stability. P/E stands at about 18x with a forward yield near 5%.
EL Overview and Recent Performance
The Estée Lauder Companies Inc. (EL) crafts prestige beauty products including Estée Lauder and La Mer skincare. Shares hover around $87-$92, with YTD returns mixed at roughly flat to slightly positive amid volatility. Recent Q2 fiscal 2026 delivered 4% organic sales growth driven by skincare and fragrances, plus double-digit China gains, though full-year EPS guidance trailed expectations, sparking selloffs. Profitability improved via Profit Recovery and Growth Plan efficiencies, but Americas demand and tariff risks weigh on outlook. Trading at a negative P/E due to prior losses, forward P/E nears 30x, with a 1.5% yield.
HSY Overview and Recent Performance
The Hershey Company (HSY) dominates North American confectionery with Hershey's and Reese's brands, expanding into salty snacks. Shares trade near $218, up about 20% YTD, boosted by Q4 2025 results with 7% sales growth and salty snacks surging 28%. FY26 guidance projects 4-5% sales rise and 30-35% adjusted EPS growth, aided by pricing and acquisitions like LesserEvil. Cocoa costs pressured margins but volume resilience and dividend hike to $1.452 signal confidence. P/E around 50x reflects premium valuation, with 2.7% yield.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
DEO, EL, and HSY share consumer staples defensiveness but diverge in models: DEO's premium spirits face premiumization risks versus HSY's everyday confectionery resilience. Growth drivers contrast HSY's snacks expansion and pricing power against DEO and EL's regional softness in NAM/China. Recent momentum favors HSY (+20% YTD) over DEO (-25%+ 1Y) and volatile EL. Risks include cocoa/input costs for HSY, tariffs for EL, and inventory for DEO. Valuation sensitivity shows DEO's attractive 18x P/E and high yield versus HSY's premium 50x. Sentiment tilts positive on HSY's outlook amid peers' caution.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Tickeron's AI leans toward HSY in the current environment, given its trend consistency, Q4 catalysts, and relative stability versus DEO's sales/dividend resets and EL's volatility. Strong salty snacks momentum and upbeat FY26 guidance position it favorably probabilistically, though monitoring input costs remains key.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer. Disclaimers and Limitations
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
DEO’s FA Score shows that 1 FA rating(s) are green whileEL’s FA Score has 0 green FA rating(s), and HSY’s FA Score reflects 1 green FA rating(s).
- DEO’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- EL’s FA Score: 0 green, 5 red.
- HSY’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
DEO’s TA Score shows that 4 TA indicator(s) are bullish while EL’s TA Score has 6 bullish TA indicator(s), and HSY’s TA Score reflects 4 bullish TA indicator(s).
- DEO’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 5 bearish.
- EL’s TA Score: 6 bullish, 2 bearish.
- HSY’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 6 bearish.
Price Growth
DEO (@Beverages: Alcoholic) experienced а +7.11% price change this week, while EL (@Household/Personal Care) price change was +6.03% , and HSY (@Food: Specialty/Candy) price fluctuated +2.26% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Beverages: Alcoholic industry was -1.24%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -8.24%, and the average quarterly price growth was -18.74%.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Household/Personal Care industry was +2.02%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -0.74%, and the average quarterly price growth was -7.71%.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Food: Specialty/Candy industry was +2.89%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +0.38%, and the average quarterly price growth was +6.38%.
Reported Earning Dates
DEO is expected to report earnings on May 06, 2026.
EL is expected to report earnings on May 01, 2026.
HSY is expected to report earnings on Apr 30, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Beverages: Alcoholic (-1.24% weekly)The alcoholic beverage market includes beer, wine, and spirits. From $230 billion in 2015, the industry has grown to around $250 billion by 2019. In recent years, alcoholic beverage makers have been looking to expand distribution and purchase channels, such as through online stores (e.g. e-commerce platform Drizly) and convenience stores. Anheuser-Busch In Bev and Diageo are major global alcoholic beverage companies, while U.S.-owned companies include Constellation Brands and Brown-Forman Corp. among several others.
@Household/Personal Care (+2.02% weekly)Household/Personal Care companies sell products for home cleaning and/or personal hygiene and grooming purposes. Products of this industry include detergents, shampoos, soaps, cosmetics, fabric conditioners and infant care fragrances. Procter & Gamble, Unilever, Estee Lauder and Colgate-Palmolive are some of the biggest names in the business. A lot of the products become a necessary part of people’s daily routine, and therefore the industry is relatively less vulnerable to macroeconomic downturns. At the same time, product quality, consumer safety, and ease of use are extremely critical factors for a company to survive competition and earn recognition in this industry.
@Food: Specialty/Candy (+2.89% weekly)A specialty/candy manufacturer specializes in one or more of the following: chocolate, candies, pasta, condiments, seasonings, among other items. Hershey Company, McCormick & Company and J.M. Smucker Company are some of the major firms in this segment. Demand for this industry’s products comes from both institutions/restaurants as well as households.
| DEO | EL | HSY | |
| Capitalization | 42.9B | 26.5B | 42.7B |
| EBITDA | 6.39B | 1.39B | 1.94B |
| Gain YTD | -8.972 | -29.794 | 16.620 |
| P/E Ratio | 18.14 | 147.80 | 48.58 |
| Revenue | 19.8B | 14.7B | 11.7B |
| Total Cash | 2.69B | 3.08B | 926M |
| Total Debt | 23.5B | 9.39B | 5.74B |
DEO | EL | HSY | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 3 | 59 | 5 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 13 Undervalued | 53 Fair valued | 38 Fair valued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 100 | 100 | 61 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 97 | 90 | 45 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 78 | 64 | 49 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 50 | 34 | 5 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | n/a | n/a | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
DEO's Valuation (13) in the Beverages Alcoholic industry is in the same range as HSY (38) in the Food Specialty Or Candy industry, and is somewhat better than the same rating for EL (53) in the Household Or Personal Care industry. This means that DEO's stock grew similarly to HSY’s and somewhat faster than EL’s over the last 12 months.
HSY's Profit vs Risk Rating (61) in the Food Specialty Or Candy industry is somewhat better than the same rating for DEO (100) in the Beverages Alcoholic industry, and is somewhat better than the same rating for EL (100) in the Household Or Personal Care industry. This means that HSY's stock grew somewhat faster than DEO’s and somewhat faster than EL’s over the last 12 months.
HSY's SMR Rating (45) in the Food Specialty Or Candy industry is somewhat better than the same rating for EL (90) in the Household Or Personal Care industry, and is somewhat better than the same rating for DEO (97) in the Beverages Alcoholic industry. This means that HSY's stock grew somewhat faster than EL’s and somewhat faster than DEO’s over the last 12 months.
HSY's Price Growth Rating (49) in the Food Specialty Or Candy industry is in the same range as EL (64) in the Household Or Personal Care industry, and is in the same range as DEO (78) in the Beverages Alcoholic industry. This means that HSY's stock grew similarly to EL’s and similarly to DEO’s over the last 12 months.
HSY's P/E Growth Rating (5) in the Food Specialty Or Candy industry is in the same range as EL (34) in the Household Or Personal Care industry, and is somewhat better than the same rating for DEO (50) in the Beverages Alcoholic industry. This means that HSY's stock grew similarly to EL’s and somewhat faster than DEO’s over the last 12 months.
| DEO | EL | HSY | |
|---|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 51% | 1 day ago 62% | 1 day ago 66% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 60% | 1 day ago 56% | 1 day ago 66% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 54% | 1 day ago 56% | 1 day ago 45% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 60% | 1 day ago 46% | 4 days ago 48% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 46% | 1 day ago 63% | 1 day ago 59% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 55% | 1 day ago 74% | 1 day ago 52% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 42% | 1 day ago 63% | 1 day ago 64% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 21 days ago 59% | 8 days ago 74% | 9 days ago 54% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 68% | 1 day ago 58% | 1 day ago 60% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 50% | 1 day ago 72% | 1 day ago 57% |
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DEO and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, DEO has been closely correlated with PRNDY. These tickers have moved in lockstep 69% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if DEO jumps, then PRNDY could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To DEO | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DEO | 100% | +1.87% | ||
| PRNDY - DEO | 69% Closely correlated | +0.07% | ||
| MGPI - DEO | 55% Loosely correlated | +2.44% | ||
| BUD - DEO | 55% Loosely correlated | +1.08% | ||
| STZ - DEO | 54% Loosely correlated | +8.53% | ||
| REMYY - DEO | 44% Loosely correlated | -0.66% | ||
More | ||||
HSY and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, HSY has been loosely correlated with KHC. These tickers have moved in lockstep 58% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if HSY jumps, then KHC could also see price increases.