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DEO or EL or MDLZ
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Diageo plc (DEO) vs. The Estée Lauder Companies Inc. (EL) vs. Mondelez International, Inc. (MDLZ) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- DEO has faced downward pressure from weak demand in North America and China, with shares down around 15% YTD amid a dividend cut and lowered outlook.
- EL shows recovery signs post-earnings beats but trades 35% lower YTD due to market softness and acquisition talks, with high volatility (beta ~1.1).
- MDLZ offers relative stability, up 8% YTD with a low beta of 0.37, though facing volume declines from pricing and cocoa costs.
- All three consumer staples stocks exhibit cautionary sentiment, but MDLZ leads in year-to-date relative performance and dividend yield (~3.4%).
- Recent market activity highlights trade-offs: DEO's premium spirits exposure vs. MDLZ's snack resilience amid inflation.
- Valuation sensitivity varies, with MDLZ at a higher P/E (~31) but stronger cash flow generation.
Introduction
This stock comparison examines DEO, EL, and MDLZ, three consumer-facing giants in beverages, beauty, and snacks. These stocks appeal to investors seeking defensive exposure amid economic uncertainty, as staples often provide stability during volatility. Traders may value their dividend profiles and sector rotations, while long-term holders assess growth drivers like premiumization and emerging markets. Recent market activity underscores relative performance shifts, aiding decisions on portfolio positioning in the current environment.
DEO Overview and Recent Performance
Diageo plc (DEO), a leading producer of premium alcoholic beverages including Johnnie Walker, Guinness, and Smirnoff, operates globally across spirits, beer, and wine. In recent weeks, shares have traded around $73-74, reflecting pressure from fiscal 2026 first-half results showing organic net sales down 2.8% due to softening U.S. spirits demand and China declines. A dividend cut to 20 cents interim and lowered full-year outlook intensified selling, with YTD returns lagging at -15%. Sentiment has shifted cautious amid income pressures, though Europe and Latin America growth provided offsets. Beta around 0.3 signals low volatility historically, but recent activity highlights sensitivity to consumer spending.
EL Overview and Recent Performance
The Estée Lauder Companies Inc. (EL) manufactures prestige beauty products like skincare, makeup, and fragrances under brands such as Estée Lauder, Clinique, and La Mer, sold worldwide via retail and digital channels. Shares hover near $68, down sharply from recent highs after Q2 fiscal 2026 earnings beat with 5.6% revenue growth to $4.23 billion, yet YTD performance trails at -35%. Discussions for a potential business combination with Puig fueled volatility, alongside travel retail softness. Momentum has waned with a 38% monthly drop, though profitability improvements like positive EPS signal turnaround efforts. Higher beta (~1.1) underscores sensitivity to discretionary shifts.
MDLZ Overview and Recent Performance
Mondelez International, Inc. (MDLZ), a snack powerhouse with Oreo, Cadbury, and Ritz brands, leads in biscuits and holds strong in chocolate across 150+ countries. Trading around $58, shares have held steady with 8% YTD gains, outperforming peers amid Q4 2025 revenue up 9.3% to $10.5 billion despite volume dips from pricing. Cocoa inflation and conservative FY26 guidance (organic growth flat to 2%) tempered enthusiasm, but robust free cash flow (~$3.2 billion FY25) supports returns. Low beta (0.37) reflects defensive positioning, with sentiment buoyed by emerging market resilience versus North American caution.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
DEO, EL, and MDLZ span consumer staples but diverge in models: DEO's premium spirits emphasize brand prestige with cyclical exposure, EL's beauty ties to luxury discretionary, and MDLZ's snacks prioritize volume via everyday indulgence. Growth drivers contrast—MDLZ benefits from emerging markets (41% Europe revenue), while DEO faces premiumization hurdles. Recent momentum favors MDLZ (8% YTD) over peers' declines. Risks include inflation for MDLZ (cocoa), regulation for DEO, and competition for EL. MDLZ shows lowest beta (0.37), highest yield (3.4%), but elevated P/E (~31) versus DEO's stability. Sentiment leans resilient for snacks amid broader caution.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Tickeron’s AI currently favors MDLZ for its trend consistency, low volatility (beta 0.37), positive YTD positioning, and steady cash flows despite headwinds. Relative outperformance and defensive snack exposure provide probabilistic edge over DEO's demand woes and EL's sharper declines, though catalysts like EL recovery could shift dynamics.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer. Disclaimers and Limitations
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
DEO’s FA Score shows that 1 FA rating(s) are green whileEL’s FA Score has 0 green FA rating(s), and MDLZ’s FA Score reflects 2 green FA rating(s).
- DEO’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- EL’s FA Score: 0 green, 5 red.
- MDLZ’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
DEO’s TA Score shows that 4 TA indicator(s) are bullish while EL’s TA Score has 4 bullish TA indicator(s), and MDLZ’s TA Score reflects 4 bullish TA indicator(s).
- DEO’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 4 bearish.
- EL’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 5 bearish.
- MDLZ’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 5 bearish.
Price Growth
DEO (@Beverages: Alcoholic) experienced а +6.79% price change this week, while EL (@Household/Personal Care) price change was +4.86% , and MDLZ (@Food: Specialty/Candy) price fluctuated -2.97% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Beverages: Alcoholic industry was +2.91%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +0.98%, and the average quarterly price growth was -17.71%.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Household/Personal Care industry was +0.96%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +3.95%, and the average quarterly price growth was -8.44%.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Food: Specialty/Candy industry was -2.68%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -2.45%, and the average quarterly price growth was +1.01%.
Reported Earning Dates
DEO is expected to report earnings on May 06, 2026.
EL is expected to report earnings on May 01, 2026.
MDLZ is expected to report earnings on Apr 28, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Beverages: Alcoholic (+2.91% weekly)The alcoholic beverage market includes beer, wine, and spirits. From $230 billion in 2015, the industry has grown to around $250 billion by 2019. In recent years, alcoholic beverage makers have been looking to expand distribution and purchase channels, such as through online stores (e.g. e-commerce platform Drizly) and convenience stores. Anheuser-Busch In Bev and Diageo are major global alcoholic beverage companies, while U.S.-owned companies include Constellation Brands and Brown-Forman Corp. among several others.
@Household/Personal Care (+0.96% weekly)Household/Personal Care companies sell products for home cleaning and/or personal hygiene and grooming purposes. Products of this industry include detergents, shampoos, soaps, cosmetics, fabric conditioners and infant care fragrances. Procter & Gamble, Unilever, Estee Lauder and Colgate-Palmolive are some of the biggest names in the business. A lot of the products become a necessary part of people’s daily routine, and therefore the industry is relatively less vulnerable to macroeconomic downturns. At the same time, product quality, consumer safety, and ease of use are extremely critical factors for a company to survive competition and earn recognition in this industry.
@Food: Specialty/Candy (-2.68% weekly)A specialty/candy manufacturer specializes in one or more of the following: chocolate, candies, pasta, condiments, seasonings, among other items. Hershey Company, McCormick & Company and J.M. Smucker Company are some of the major firms in this segment. Demand for this industry’s products comes from both institutions/restaurants as well as households.
| DEO | EL | MDLZ | |
| Capitalization | 45.7B | 27.6B | 73.5B |
| EBITDA | 6.39B | 1.39B | 4.97B |
| Gain YTD | -4.130 | -27.006 | 7.274 |
| P/E Ratio | 18.92 | 147.80 | 30.29 |
| Revenue | 19.8B | 14.7B | 38.5B |
| Total Cash | 905M | 3.08B | N/A |
| Total Debt | 23.5B | 9.39B | 21.8B |
DEO | EL | MDLZ | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 12 | 5 | 21 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 20 Undervalued | 54 Fair valued | 26 Undervalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 100 | 100 | 81 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 98 | 91 | 72 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 60 | 64 | 59 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 50 | 36 | 23 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 85 | 75 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
DEO's Valuation (20) in the Beverages Alcoholic industry is in the same range as MDLZ (26) in the Food Major Diversified industry, and is somewhat better than the same rating for EL (54) in the Household Or Personal Care industry. This means that DEO's stock grew similarly to MDLZ’s and somewhat faster than EL’s over the last 12 months.
MDLZ's Profit vs Risk Rating (81) in the Food Major Diversified industry is in the same range as DEO (100) in the Beverages Alcoholic industry, and is in the same range as EL (100) in the Household Or Personal Care industry. This means that MDLZ's stock grew similarly to DEO’s and similarly to EL’s over the last 12 months.
MDLZ's SMR Rating (72) in the Food Major Diversified industry is in the same range as EL (91) in the Household Or Personal Care industry, and is in the same range as DEO (98) in the Beverages Alcoholic industry. This means that MDLZ's stock grew similarly to EL’s and similarly to DEO’s over the last 12 months.
MDLZ's Price Growth Rating (59) in the Food Major Diversified industry is in the same range as DEO (60) in the Beverages Alcoholic industry, and is in the same range as EL (64) in the Household Or Personal Care industry. This means that MDLZ's stock grew similarly to DEO’s and similarly to EL’s over the last 12 months.
MDLZ's P/E Growth Rating (23) in the Food Major Diversified industry is in the same range as EL (36) in the Household Or Personal Care industry, and is in the same range as DEO (50) in the Beverages Alcoholic industry. This means that MDLZ's stock grew similarly to EL’s and similarly to DEO’s over the last 12 months.
| DEO | EL | MDLZ | |
|---|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 59% | 3 days ago 67% | 4 days ago 71% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 53% | 3 days ago 74% | 3 days ago 51% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 54% | 3 days ago 65% | 3 days ago 52% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 51% | 3 days ago 59% | 3 days ago 58% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 45% | 3 days ago 64% | 3 days ago 56% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 41% | 3 days ago 75% | 3 days ago 51% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 42% | 5 days ago 63% | 3 days ago 53% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | about 1 month ago 59% | 18 days ago 74% | 7 days ago 50% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 71% | 3 days ago 61% | N/A |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 57% | 3 days ago 68% | 3 days ago 39% |
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MDLZ and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, MDLZ has been loosely correlated with GIS. These tickers have moved in lockstep 65% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if MDLZ jumps, then GIS could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To MDLZ | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MDLZ | 100% | +0.32% | ||
| GIS - MDLZ | 65% Loosely correlated | +0.51% | ||
| CAG - MDLZ | 59% Loosely correlated | +1.09% | ||
| CPB - MDLZ | 58% Loosely correlated | +0.24% | ||
| KHC - MDLZ | 58% Loosely correlated | -0.53% | ||
| MKC - MDLZ | 58% Loosely correlated | +1.99% | ||
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