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DEO or EL or MO
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Diageo plc (DEO) vs. The Estée Lauder Companies Inc. (EL) vs. Altria Group, Inc. (MO) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- DEO trades at a forward P/E of 8.50 with a 5.35% dividend yield but has faced softening spirits demand, leading to recent share weakness and lowered guidance.
- EL shows YTD gains of 15.82% amid India expansion via Forest Essentials acquisition, though tariff risks and legal issues weigh on sentiment in prestige beauty.
- MO leads with 17.74% YTD return, a compelling 6.25% dividend yield, and UBS price target raise to $74, supported by smoke-free product momentum.
- Across consumer defensive peers, MO offers the highest yield and stability (beta 0.43), while DEO appears undervalued on forward multiples amid cycle normalization potential.
- EL's higher beta (1.11) reflects volatility in beauty, contrasting MO and DEO's defensive profiles.
- Relative performance favors MO in recent market activity, with analysts highlighting resilient tobacco leadership.
Introduction
This stock comparison examines DEO, a global spirits leader; EL, a prestige beauty powerhouse; and MO, a U.S. tobacco dominant, all within consumer defensive sectors. These stocks appeal to income-focused investors seeking stability amid market volatility, as well as traders eyeing relative performance in beverages, personal care, and tobacco. With dividends, growth transitions, and sector tailwinds, the analysis highlights recent momentum, valuation contrasts, and positioning for traders monitoring consumer staples resilience and luxury shifts.
DEO Overview and Recent Performance
Diageo plc (DEO), headquartered in London, produces premium spirits like Johnnie Walker, Smirnoff, and Guinness, with operations in over 180 countries. In recent market activity, shares have slid amid softening demand for spirits, excess inventories normalizing slowly, and tariff uncertainties, contributing to a one-month decline of over 20%. The stock trades around $77 with a market cap of $43 billion, trailing P/E of 17.91, forward P/E of 8.50, and 5.35% dividend yield. Fiscal 2026 first-half results prompted guidance revision and caution from HSBC, yet new launches like accessible Johnnie Walker variants signal premiumization efforts. Sentiment reflects cyclical pressures in North America and Latin America, offset by emerging market resilience, positioning DEO for potential recovery as inventories stabilize.
EL Overview and Recent Performance
The Estée Lauder Companies Inc. (EL), based in New York, manufactures prestige skincare, makeup, fragrance, and haircare under brands like Estée Lauder, La Mer, and Jo Malone London, sold in 150 countries. Recent weeks have seen shares around $88 with a $32 billion market cap, YTD up 15.82%, though challenged by a reported 21% YTD dip in some analyses amid tariff risks, travel retail weakness, and legal disputes. Forward P/E stands at 29.41 with 1.59% yield and beta of 1.11. Q2 fiscal 2026 sales hit $4.23 billion, but profitability pressures persist. Key developments include full acquisition of Forest Essentials to bolster India presence, highlighting skincare and fragrance growth potential despite China reliance and sector headwinds influencing volatile sentiment.
MO Overview and Recent Performance
Altria Group, Inc. (MO), headquartered in Richmond, Virginia, leads U.S. tobacco with Marlboro cigarettes, on! pouches, and NJOY vapes via subsidiaries like Philip Morris USA. Shares hover near $68 with $114 billion market cap, YTD return of 17.74%, trailing P/E 16.48, forward P/E 12.11, and standout 6.25% dividend yield. Beta of 0.43 underscores defensive appeal. Recent activity shows resilience with UBS raising price target to $74 on slowing cigarette declines and smoke-free gains, including on! volume leadership. Quarterly dividend reaffirmed at $1.06, supporting cash returns amid transition to reduced-risk products, fostering positive sentiment in a stable core business despite regulatory oversight.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
DEO, EL, and MO span beverages, beauty, and tobacco, all defensive yet differentiated. Business models contrast DEO’s global premium spirits premiumization and MO’s U.S.-centric smoke-free shift against EL’s prestige innovation. Growth drivers favor MO’s nicotine pouch momentum and EL’s emerging market expansions over DEO’s demand normalization. Recent momentum lifts MO (17.74% YTD) above peers. Risks include tariffs/inventories for DEO, regulation for MO, and cyclical beauty for EL. Valuation sensitivity shows DEO cheapest forward (8.50), MO highest yield (6.25%), EL priciest. Lower betas (MO 0.43, DEO 0.17) signal stability versus EL’s 1.11; sentiment tilts to income anchors.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Tickeron’s AI currently favors MO based on superior trend consistency, highest dividend yield at 6.25%, YTD outperformance, analyst upgrades, and defensive beta amid volatility. Relative stability and smoke-free catalysts position it probabilistically ahead of DEO’s undervaluation potential and EL’s growth volatility.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer. Disclaimers and Limitations
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
DEO’s FA Score shows that 1 FA rating(s) are green whileEL’s FA Score has 0 green FA rating(s), and MO’s FA Score reflects 4 green FA rating(s).
- DEO’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- EL’s FA Score: 0 green, 5 red.
- MO’s FA Score: 4 green, 1 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
DEO’s TA Score shows that 4 TA indicator(s) are bullish while EL’s TA Score has 4 bullish TA indicator(s), and MO’s TA Score reflects 4 bullish TA indicator(s).
- DEO’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 3 bearish.
- EL’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 5 bearish.
- MO’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 5 bearish.
Price Growth
DEO (@Beverages: Alcoholic) experienced а +6.79% price change this week, while EL (@Household/Personal Care) price change was +4.43% , and MO (@Tobacco) price fluctuated -4.76% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Beverages: Alcoholic industry was +2.13%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +1.86%, and the average quarterly price growth was -11.35%.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Household/Personal Care industry was +1.15%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +5.23%, and the average quarterly price growth was -9.00%.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Tobacco industry was -1.21%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +1.15%, and the average quarterly price growth was -8.55%.
Reported Earning Dates
DEO is expected to report earnings on May 06, 2026.
EL is expected to report earnings on May 01, 2026.
MO is expected to report earnings on Apr 30, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Beverages: Alcoholic (+2.13% weekly)The alcoholic beverage market includes beer, wine, and spirits. From $230 billion in 2015, the industry has grown to around $250 billion by 2019. In recent years, alcoholic beverage makers have been looking to expand distribution and purchase channels, such as through online stores (e.g. e-commerce platform Drizly) and convenience stores. Anheuser-Busch In Bev and Diageo are major global alcoholic beverage companies, while U.S.-owned companies include Constellation Brands and Brown-Forman Corp. among several others.
@Household/Personal Care (+1.15% weekly)Household/Personal Care companies sell products for home cleaning and/or personal hygiene and grooming purposes. Products of this industry include detergents, shampoos, soaps, cosmetics, fabric conditioners and infant care fragrances. Procter & Gamble, Unilever, Estee Lauder and Colgate-Palmolive are some of the biggest names in the business. A lot of the products become a necessary part of people’s daily routine, and therefore the industry is relatively less vulnerable to macroeconomic downturns. At the same time, product quality, consumer safety, and ease of use are extremely critical factors for a company to survive competition and earn recognition in this industry.
@Tobacco (-1.21% weekly)The industry is engaged in the growth, preparation for sale, advertisement, and distribution of tobacco and tobacco-related products like cigarettes. In 2017, tobacco companies spent an estimated $9.36 billion marketing cigarettes and smokeless tobacco in the U.S. – an amount that translates to more than $25 million each day (according to a CDC report). Philip Morris International Inc., Altria Group Inc., and British American Tobacco plc are some major cigar makers. In recent times, vaping or the use of e-cigarette (does not burn tobacco) is gaining momentum – several established cigarette makers are trying to expand their footprint in this new market.
| DEO | EL | MO | |
| Capitalization | 45.7B | 28.2B | 108B |
| EBITDA | 6.39B | 1.39B | 10.8B |
| Gain YTD | -4.130 | -25.426 | 13.931 |
| P/E Ratio | 18.98 | 147.80 | 15.68 |
| Revenue | 19.8B | 14.7B | 20.1B |
| Total Cash | 905M | 3.08B | N/A |
| Total Debt | 23.5B | 9.39B | 25.7B |
DEO | EL | MO | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 50 | 50 | 50 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 20 Undervalued | 54 Fair valued | 8 Undervalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 100 | 100 | 14 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 98 | 91 | 9 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 60 | 64 | 34 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 50 | 36 | 15 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 85 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
MO's Valuation (8) in the Tobacco industry is in the same range as DEO (20) in the Beverages Alcoholic industry, and is somewhat better than the same rating for EL (54) in the Household Or Personal Care industry. This means that MO's stock grew similarly to DEO’s and somewhat faster than EL’s over the last 12 months.
MO's Profit vs Risk Rating (14) in the Tobacco industry is significantly better than the same rating for DEO (100) in the Beverages Alcoholic industry, and is significantly better than the same rating for EL (100) in the Household Or Personal Care industry. This means that MO's stock grew significantly faster than DEO’s and significantly faster than EL’s over the last 12 months.
MO's SMR Rating (9) in the Tobacco industry is significantly better than the same rating for EL (91) in the Household Or Personal Care industry, and is significantly better than the same rating for DEO (98) in the Beverages Alcoholic industry. This means that MO's stock grew significantly faster than EL’s and significantly faster than DEO’s over the last 12 months.
MO's Price Growth Rating (34) in the Tobacco industry is in the same range as DEO (60) in the Beverages Alcoholic industry, and is in the same range as EL (64) in the Household Or Personal Care industry. This means that MO's stock grew similarly to DEO’s and similarly to EL’s over the last 12 months.
MO's P/E Growth Rating (15) in the Tobacco industry is in the same range as EL (36) in the Household Or Personal Care industry, and is somewhat better than the same rating for DEO (50) in the Beverages Alcoholic industry. This means that MO's stock grew similarly to EL’s and somewhat faster than DEO’s over the last 12 months.
| DEO | EL | MO | |
|---|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 59% | 4 days ago 67% | N/A |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 53% | 4 days ago 74% | 4 days ago 58% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 54% | 4 days ago 65% | 4 days ago 35% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 51% | 4 days ago 59% | 4 days ago 40% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 45% | 4 days ago 64% | 4 days ago 40% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 41% | 4 days ago 75% | 4 days ago 31% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 42% | 6 days ago 63% | 12 days ago 53% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | N/A | 19 days ago 74% | 6 days ago 37% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 71% | 4 days ago 61% | 4 days ago 55% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 57% | 4 days ago 68% | 4 days ago 23% |
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| 1 Day | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| ETFs / NAME | Price $ | Chg $ | Chg % |
| XHYI | 37.86 | N/A | N/A |
| BondBloxx US High Yield Indstrl Sctr ETF | |||
| DVUT | 27.69 | N/A | N/A |
| WEBs Utilities XLU Defined VolETF | |||
| IGIB | 53.70 | -0.01 | -0.02% |
| iShares 5-10 Year invmt Grd Corp Bd ETF | |||
| ERTH | 50.10 | -0.08 | -0.16% |
| Invesco MSCI Sustainable Future ETF | |||
| RSPH | 31.27 | -0.07 | -0.22% |
| Invesco S&P 500® Equal Wt Hlth Care ETF | |||
DEO and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, DEO has been closely correlated with PRNDY. These tickers have moved in lockstep 69% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if DEO jumps, then PRNDY could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To DEO | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DEO | 100% | +3.33% | ||
| PRNDY - DEO | 69% Closely correlated | +1.35% | ||
| BUD - DEO | 55% Loosely correlated | +0.46% | ||
| MGPI - DEO | 54% Loosely correlated | -0.10% | ||
| STZ - DEO | 54% Loosely correlated | -1.20% | ||
| REMYY - DEO | 44% Loosely correlated | +2.56% | ||
More | ||||
MO and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, MO has been loosely correlated with PM. These tickers have moved in lockstep 51% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if MO jumps, then PM could also see price increases.