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DEO or KR or PM
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Diageo (DEO) vs. Kroger (KR) vs. Philip Morris (PM) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- DEO has faced headwinds from softening demand in North America and China, leading to a YTD decline of approximately 14%, with shares trading near 52-week lows around $74.
- KR stands out with strong YTD gains of about 18%, driven by identical sales growth and e-commerce expansion, with shares near $73 and a market cap of $45 billion.
- PM shows stability with modest YTD returns around 3%, bolstered by smoke-free product growth, trading at $163 with a massive $254 billion market cap and 3.6% dividend yield.
- Valuation contrasts: DEO at 17x P/E offers value but recent sales weakness; KR at 48x P/E reflects earnings pressures; PM at 22x P/E balances growth and yield.
- Consumer staples resilience favors defensive plays amid volatility, with KR leading momentum and PM providing income stability.
- Recent earnings highlight divergent paths: DEO cut guidance, KR raised outlook, PM beat estimates.
Introduction
This comparison examines DEO (Diageo, a global alcoholic beverages leader), KR (Kroger, the U.S. grocery retail giant), and PM (Philip Morris International, focused on tobacco and smoke-free products) in today's market. These consumer staples stocks offer defensive exposure amid economic uncertainty, appealing to income-oriented investors seeking stability and traders eyeing relative performance shifts. Recent market activity underscores contrasts in momentum, with grocery resilience outpacing beverages and tobacco amid shifting consumer spending and sector-specific catalysts. Understanding their business models, recent trends, and valuations aids informed positioning in a volatile environment.
DEO Overview and Recent Performance
Diageo plc (DEO), the world's largest spirits producer with brands like Johnnie Walker and Guinness, operates in a premium beverages market sensitive to consumer trends and economic cycles. Shares have declined sharply in recent weeks, trading around $74 near 52-week lows, reflecting a YTD drop of about 14% and over 28% in the past year. This stems from fiscal 2026 interim results showing a 2.8% organic net sales decline, driven by weakness in North America and Chinese white spirits, alongside inventory normalization and tariff concerns. Sentiment has softened due to cyclical and structural demand headwinds, though Europe, Latin America, and Africa provided offsets. Dividend yield remains attractive at 4.5%, with a P/E of 17x signaling potential value if premiumization resumes.
KR Overview and Recent Performance
The Kroger Co. (KR), a leading U.S. supermarket operator with over 2,700 stores, benefits from essential grocery demand and digital initiatives. Shares have surged around 18% YTD to about $73, hitting new highs amid analyst upgrades and strong Q4 results with $34.7 billion revenue and improved 23.1% gross margins. Recent weeks saw identical sales growth without fuel, e-commerce up 17%, and expansions like acquiring stores and stocking Zepbound. New CEO Greg Foran's focus on affordable fresh food and delivery has boosted sentiment, despite industry consolidation. With a 1.9% dividend yield and forward P/E near 15x, KR reflects resilient performance in a value-driven retail landscape.
PM Overview and Recent Performance
Philip Morris International (PM) leads the shift to smoke-free products like IQOS and Zyn, alongside traditional cigarettes, with global reach outside the U.S. Shares hover at $163, up modestly 3% YTD after peaking near $191, with recent pullback from regulatory and volume pressures offset by strong Q4 earnings. Net revenues grew 6.8% to $10.4 billion, adjusted EPS rose 9.7%, and smoke-free shipments surged 12.8%, now 41.5% of revenue. Guidance projects 5-7% organic revenue growth through 2028. Trading at 22x P/E with a robust 3.6% yield, PM maintains stability amid transformation, appealing for income and growth in a maturing tobacco sector.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
DEO, KR, and PM span beverages, grocery retail, and tobacco within consumer staples, but diverge in growth drivers and risks. Business models contrast: DEO's premium spirits face discretionary spending cuts versus KR's essential groceries and PM's recurring tobacco habits. Recent momentum favors KR (18% YTD) over PM (3%) and DEO (-14%), tied to sales resilience amid inflation. Risk factors include DEO's regional demand volatility, KR's competition from discounters, and PM's regulations. Sector exposure highlights staples defense, but PM leads valuation sensitivity with balanced P/E and superior yield (3.6% vs. 4.5% DEO, 1.9% KR). Market sentiment tilts toward KR's operational wins, trading off DEO's undervaluation for stability.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Tickeron’s AI currently favors KR for its trend consistency, with 18% YTD outperformance, e-commerce catalysts, and raised guidance signaling relative strength in staples. PM offers stability via smoke-free growth and dividends, probabilistically suitable for low-volatility positioning. DEO lags on momentum despite attractive valuation, pending demand recovery. Observable factors like sales trends and sector rotation tilt toward KR in the near term.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer. Disclaimers and Limitations
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
DEO’s FA Score shows that 1 FA rating(s) are green whileKR’s FA Score has 2 green FA rating(s), and PM’s FA Score reflects 3 green FA rating(s).
- DEO’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- KR’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
- PM’s FA Score: 3 green, 2 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
DEO’s TA Score shows that 4 TA indicator(s) are bullish while KR’s TA Score has 4 bullish TA indicator(s), and PM’s TA Score reflects 4 bullish TA indicator(s).
- DEO’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 4 bearish.
- KR’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 6 bearish.
- PM’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 4 bearish.
Price Growth
DEO (@Beverages: Alcoholic) experienced а +6.79% price change this week, while KR (@Food Retail) price change was +0.29% , and PM (@Tobacco) price fluctuated -1.66% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Beverages: Alcoholic industry was +2.91%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +0.98%, and the average quarterly price growth was -17.71%.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Food Retail industry was +2.31%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +2.04%, and the average quarterly price growth was +3.08%.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Tobacco industry was -1.34%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -0.47%, and the average quarterly price growth was -9.25%.
Reported Earning Dates
DEO is expected to report earnings on May 06, 2026.
KR is expected to report earnings on Jun 11, 2026.
PM is expected to report earnings on Apr 22, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Beverages: Alcoholic (+2.91% weekly)The alcoholic beverage market includes beer, wine, and spirits. From $230 billion in 2015, the industry has grown to around $250 billion by 2019. In recent years, alcoholic beverage makers have been looking to expand distribution and purchase channels, such as through online stores (e.g. e-commerce platform Drizly) and convenience stores. Anheuser-Busch In Bev and Diageo are major global alcoholic beverage companies, while U.S.-owned companies include Constellation Brands and Brown-Forman Corp. among several others.
@Food Retail (+2.31% weekly)The food retail industry includes companies that sell food, beverage and household products. Items sold include grocery, gourmet food, fresh produce, and frozen food. Kroger Co., George Weston Ltd., Grocery Outlet Holding Corp., and Sprouts Farmers Markets, Inc. are examples of major food retailers. While e-commerce companies like Amazon have increasingly been ramping-up offerings in the food retail space, several traditional players have also been expanding their online presence to stand their ground against rising competition.
@Tobacco (-1.34% weekly)The industry is engaged in the growth, preparation for sale, advertisement, and distribution of tobacco and tobacco-related products like cigarettes. In 2017, tobacco companies spent an estimated $9.36 billion marketing cigarettes and smokeless tobacco in the U.S. – an amount that translates to more than $25 million each day (according to a CDC report). Philip Morris International Inc., Altria Group Inc., and British American Tobacco plc are some major cigar makers. In recent times, vaping or the use of e-cigarette (does not burn tobacco) is gaining momentum – several established cigarette makers are trying to expand their footprint in this new market.
| DEO | KR | PM | |
| Capitalization | 45.7B | 41.8B | 246B |
| EBITDA | 6.39B | 5.76B | 17.5B |
| Gain YTD | -4.130 | 9.686 | -0.749 |
| P/E Ratio | 18.92 | 44.28 | 21.72 |
| Revenue | 19.8B | 148B | 40.6B |
| Total Cash | 905M | 4.58B | N/A |
| Total Debt | 23.5B | 24.7B | 48.8B |
DEO | KR | PM | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 12 | 54 | 76 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 20 Undervalued | 55 Fair valued | 23 Undervalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 100 | 24 | 19 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 98 | 56 | 3 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 60 | 59 | 60 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 50 | 10 | 81 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 50 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
DEO's Valuation (20) in the Beverages Alcoholic industry is in the same range as PM (23) in the Tobacco industry, and is somewhat better than the same rating for KR (55) in the Food Retail industry. This means that DEO's stock grew similarly to PM’s and somewhat faster than KR’s over the last 12 months.
PM's Profit vs Risk Rating (19) in the Tobacco industry is in the same range as KR (24) in the Food Retail industry, and is significantly better than the same rating for DEO (100) in the Beverages Alcoholic industry. This means that PM's stock grew similarly to KR’s and significantly faster than DEO’s over the last 12 months.
PM's SMR Rating (3) in the Tobacco industry is somewhat better than the same rating for KR (56) in the Food Retail industry, and is significantly better than the same rating for DEO (98) in the Beverages Alcoholic industry. This means that PM's stock grew somewhat faster than KR’s and significantly faster than DEO’s over the last 12 months.
KR's Price Growth Rating (59) in the Food Retail industry is in the same range as PM (60) in the Tobacco industry, and is in the same range as DEO (60) in the Beverages Alcoholic industry. This means that KR's stock grew similarly to PM’s and similarly to DEO’s over the last 12 months.
KR's P/E Growth Rating (10) in the Food Retail industry is somewhat better than the same rating for DEO (50) in the Beverages Alcoholic industry, and is significantly better than the same rating for PM (81) in the Tobacco industry. This means that KR's stock grew somewhat faster than DEO’s and significantly faster than PM’s over the last 12 months.
| DEO | KR | PM | |
|---|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 59% | 3 days ago 57% | 3 days ago 68% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 53% | 3 days ago 66% | 3 days ago 55% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 54% | 3 days ago 49% | 3 days ago 48% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 51% | 3 days ago 54% | 3 days ago 55% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 45% | 3 days ago 62% | 3 days ago 50% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 41% | 3 days ago 53% | 3 days ago 51% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 42% | 3 days ago 57% | 11 days ago 57% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | about 1 month ago 59% | 5 days ago 46% | 4 days ago 48% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 71% | 3 days ago 57% | N/A |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 57% | 3 days ago 44% | 3 days ago 34% |
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