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DEO or MGPI or PRNDY
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Diageo plc (DEO) vs. MGP Ingredients, Inc. (MGPI) vs. Pernod Ricard SA (PRNDY) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- The alcoholic beverages sector contends with softening demand, particularly in U.S. spirits, impacting all three stocks amid recent market activity.
- DEO, with a $44.3 billion market cap, offers stability via low beta (0.30) and 4.16% dividend yield, boosted by recent U.S. tariff relief on Scotch whisky.
- MGPI faces sharp headwinds from whiskey oversupply, with Q1 2026 sales down 13% to $106.4 million and a $134.8 million loss, leading to distillery idling.
- PRNDY reports Q3 organic net sales growth of +4.1%, though FX pressures weigh, trading at a low PE ratio of 11.35 and 7.36% yield.
- YTD performance shows MGPI at +19.63%, followed by PRNDY (+13.55%) and DEO (+7.04%), but all trail 52-week highs significantly.
Introduction
Diageo plc (DEO), MGP Ingredients, Inc. (MGPI), and Pernod Ricard SA (PRNDY) represent diverse facets of the distilled spirits and alcoholic beverages industry, from global branded giants to ingredient suppliers. This comparison is relevant for traders eyeing sector rotation amid consumer shifts toward premiumization and economic pressures, and investors assessing relative performance in valuation, momentum, and risk amid recent demand softness. Understanding their business models, recent trajectories, and head-to-head dynamics aids in evaluating market positioning in a challenging environment.
DEO Overview and Recent Performance
Diageo plc (DEO) is a leading global producer of premium alcoholic beverages, including Scotch whisky (Johnnie Walker), vodka (Smirnoff), and tequila (Don Julio), with operations spanning North America, Europe, Asia, and beyond. Trading around $79.70 with a 52-week range of $72.45–$116.69, its market cap stands at $44.3 billion and PE ratio at 18.41. In recent weeks, DEO shares have gained from U.S. tariff relief on Scotch whisky, countering earlier pressures from softening U.S. spirits demand and weaker H1 fiscal 2026 results showing organic sales and profit declines. Sentiment has improved with this export catalyst, supported by low beta (0.30) and steady volume, though broader inventory builds remain a watchpoint.
MGPI Overview and Recent Performance
MGP Ingredients, Inc. (MGPI) specializes in distilled spirits production and food ingredients, serving as a key supplier of bourbon and rye for major brands via its Distillery Solutions segment, alongside Branded Spirits and Ingredient Solutions. At $19.40, with a 52-week range of $16.45–$34.99 and market cap of $415 million, it lacks a PE ratio amid losses. Recent market activity reflects distress, with Q1 2026 results showing sales down 13% to $106.4 million, gross profit off 22%, and a $134.8 million net loss, prompting plans to idle Kentucky distilleries due to whiskey oversupply. Performance has lagged sharply, influenced by industry overcapacity and weak demand trends, eroding investor confidence despite YTD gains from lower bases.
PRNDY Overview and Recent Performance
Pernod Ricard SA (PRNDY), via its ADR, produces a wide array of spirits and wines like Absolut vodka, Jameson whiskey, and Martell cognac, with global distribution. Priced at $14.87, its 52-week range is $13.40–$24.13, market cap $18.7 billion, PE 11.35, and dividend yield 7.36%. In recent months, PRNDY achieved Q3 organic net sales growth of +4.1%, a sequential improvement despite FX headwinds causing reported declines, amid U.S. and China softness. Stable beta (0.47) and value metrics have sustained relative positioning, though sector-wide demand challenges persist.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
DEO and PRNDY emphasize consumer-branded premium spirits with global scale, contrasting MGPI’s B2B focus on distilling services and ingredients. Growth drivers differ: PRNDY shows organic sales resilience, while DEO leverages tariff relief and MGPI battles oversupply. Recent momentum favors DEO’s uptick, with PRNDY steady and MGPI declining sharply. Risks include demand slowdowns across the board, amplified for MGPI by inventory glut. Valuation sensitivity highlights PRNDY’s lower PE and highest yield, versus DEO’s stability and MGPI’s losses. Market sentiment tilts toward larger peers amid sector pressures.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Tickeron’s AI would currently favor DEO with higher probability, owing to its trend consistency from tariff catalysts, superior scale for resilience, low volatility (beta 0.30), and balanced positioning relative to MGPI’s operational strains and PRNDY’s FX exposure. Observable stability and catalysts suggest stronger near-term relative outperformance potential.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer. Disclaimers and Limitations
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
DEO’s FA Score shows that 1 FA rating(s) are green whileMGPI’s FA Score has 1 green FA rating(s), and PRNDY’s FA Score reflects 1 green FA rating(s).
- DEO’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- MGPI’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- PRNDY’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
DEO’s TA Score shows that 6 TA indicator(s) are bullish while MGPI’s TA Score has 4 bullish TA indicator(s), and PRNDY’s TA Score reflects 3 bullish TA indicator(s).
- DEO’s TA Score: 6 bullish, 3 bearish.
- MGPI’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 5 bearish.
- PRNDY’s TA Score: 3 bullish, 4 bearish.
Price Growth
DEO (@Beverages: Alcoholic) experienced а +3.92% price change this week, while MGPI (@Beverages: Alcoholic) price change was -2.14% , and PRNDY (@Beverages: Alcoholic) price fluctuated +1.25% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Beverages: Alcoholic industry was -2.38%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -7.68%, and the average quarterly price growth was -10.11%.
Reported Earning Dates
DEO is expected to report earnings on Aug 06, 2026.
MGPI is expected to report earnings on Jul 30, 2026.
PRNDY is expected to report earnings on Aug 27, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Beverages: Alcoholic (-2.38% weekly)The alcoholic beverage market includes beer, wine, and spirits. From $230 billion in 2015, the industry has grown to around $250 billion by 2019. In recent years, alcoholic beverage makers have been looking to expand distribution and purchase channels, such as through online stores (e.g. e-commerce platform Drizly) and convenience stores. Anheuser-Busch In Bev and Diageo are major global alcoholic beverage companies, while U.S.-owned companies include Constellation Brands and Brown-Forman Corp. among several others.
| DEO | MGPI | PRNDY | |
| Capitalization | 45.9B | 380M | 18.2B |
| EBITDA | 6.39B | -241.48M | 2.87B |
| Gain YTD | -1.309 | -25.857 | -14.927 |
| P/E Ratio | 19.48 | 58.74 | 10.82 |
| Revenue | 19.8B | 521M | 10B |
| Total Cash | 905M | 13.4M | 2.4B |
| Total Debt | 23.5B | 254M | 13.6B |
DEO | MGPI | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 60 | 62 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 21 Undervalued | 38 Fair valued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 100 | 100 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 98 | 97 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 61 | 85 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 36 | 5 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 8 | 2 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
DEO's Valuation (21) in the Beverages Alcoholic industry is in the same range as MGPI (38) in the Agricultural Commodities Or Milling industry. This means that DEO’s stock grew similarly to MGPI’s over the last 12 months.
DEO's Profit vs Risk Rating (100) in the Beverages Alcoholic industry is in the same range as MGPI (100) in the Agricultural Commodities Or Milling industry. This means that DEO’s stock grew similarly to MGPI’s over the last 12 months.
MGPI's SMR Rating (97) in the Agricultural Commodities Or Milling industry is in the same range as DEO (98) in the Beverages Alcoholic industry. This means that MGPI’s stock grew similarly to DEO’s over the last 12 months.
DEO's Price Growth Rating (61) in the Beverages Alcoholic industry is in the same range as MGPI (85) in the Agricultural Commodities Or Milling industry. This means that DEO’s stock grew similarly to MGPI’s over the last 12 months.
MGPI's P/E Growth Rating (5) in the Agricultural Commodities Or Milling industry is in the same range as DEO (36) in the Beverages Alcoholic industry. This means that MGPI’s stock grew similarly to DEO’s over the last 12 months.
| DEO | MGPI | PRNDY | |
|---|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 67% | 1 day ago 67% | 1 day ago 53% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 56% | 1 day ago 73% | 1 day ago 57% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 51% | 1 day ago 72% | 1 day ago 71% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 46% | 1 day ago 76% | 1 day ago 49% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 43% | 1 day ago 76% | 1 day ago 60% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 40% | 3 days ago 68% | 1 day ago 49% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 7 days ago 60% | 8 days ago 74% | 8 days ago 60% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 73% | 1 day ago 66% | 1 day ago 60% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 34% | 1 day ago 54% | 1 day ago 57% |
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DEO and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, DEO has been closely correlated with PRNDY. These tickers have moved in lockstep 69% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if DEO jumps, then PRNDY could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To DEO | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DEO | 100% | +0.61% | ||
| PRNDY - DEO | 69% Closely correlated | +0.21% | ||
| MGPI - DEO | 55% Loosely correlated | -2.68% | ||
| BUD - DEO | 55% Loosely correlated | +0.73% | ||
| STZ - DEO | 54% Loosely correlated | -0.75% | ||
| REMYY - DEO | 44% Loosely correlated | +0.75% | ||
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MGPI and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, MGPI has been loosely correlated with DEO. These tickers have moved in lockstep 55% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if MGPI jumps, then DEO could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To MGPI | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MGPI | 100% | -2.68% | ||
| DEO - MGPI | 55% Loosely correlated | +0.61% | ||
| PRNDY - MGPI | 43% Loosely correlated | +0.21% | ||
| STZ - MGPI | 34% Loosely correlated | -0.75% | ||
| DVCMY - MGPI | 33% Poorly correlated | +1.45% | ||
| BUD - MGPI | 28% Poorly correlated | +0.73% | ||
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PRNDY and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, PRNDY has been closely correlated with DEO. These tickers have moved in lockstep 70% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if PRNDY jumps, then DEO could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To PRNDY | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PRNDY | 100% | +0.21% | ||
| DEO - PRNDY | 70% Closely correlated | +0.61% | ||
| REMYY - PRNDY | 69% Closely correlated | +0.75% | ||
| DGEAF - PRNDY | 61% Loosely correlated | -0.44% | ||
| HEINY - PRNDY | 52% Loosely correlated | +1.14% | ||
| DVCMY - PRNDY | 48% Loosely correlated | +1.45% | ||
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