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DEO or PM or TGT
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Diageo plc (DEO) vs. Philip Morris International Inc. (PM) vs. Target Corporation (TGT) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- DEO has faced headwinds from softening demand in North America and China, with recent organic sales declining 2.8% and shares down significantly over the past year.
- PM demonstrates resilience through strong smoke-free product growth, achieving 12.8% shipment volume increases and over 40% of revenues from these segments in recent periods.
- TGT shows recovery momentum with YTD gains of around 23%, supported by price cuts on thousands of items and improving comparable sales trends.
- Across broader timeframes, PM leads in long-term total returns, while TGT trades at attractive valuations with a P/E ratio near 11-14x.
- DEO trails in recent momentum amid dividend adjustments, contrasting with stable dividend growth at PM and TGT.
- Consumer staples like PM offer defensive positioning versus retail cyclicality in TGT and premium spirits exposure in DEO.
Introduction
This stock comparison examines DEO, a global leader in premium alcoholic beverages; PM, a tobacco giant pivoting to smoke-free products; and TGT, a major U.S. retailer navigating consumer spending shifts. These stocks span consumer staples and retail sectors, offering insights into defensive versus cyclical plays amid evolving market dynamics like premiumization trends, health shifts, and value-seeking shoppers. Traders seeking relative performance edges and investors eyeing dividend stability or growth catalysts will find value in analyzing their recent trajectories, valuations, and sector exposures in today's environment.
DEO Overview and Recent Performance
Diageo plc (DEO), the world's largest spirits producer with brands like Johnnie Walker and Guinness, operates in a premium beverages market. Recent market activity has pressured the stock, with shares declining around 15% over three months and nearly 30% over the past year, reflecting YTD losses near 15%. Key influences include a 2.8% drop in organic net sales for the first half of fiscal 2026, driven by weakness in North America and China amid softening consumer demand. The company reported operating profit declines and halved its interim dividend to prioritize investments in capacity and competitiveness under new leadership. Despite strong free cash flow generation, sentiment remains cautious as shares trade below recent highs, with analysts noting valuation resets but potential for recovery in premium segments.
PM Overview and Recent Performance
Philip Morris International Inc. (PM) focuses on cigarettes and rapidly expanding smoke-free products like IQOS and ZYN, operating globally outside the U.S. Recent performance shows stability, with shares up modestly YTD around 4-5% despite monthly dips near 7-12%. Full-year 2025 results highlighted robust growth: net revenues exceeded $40 billion, with smoke-free segments contributing 41.5% of revenues and 43% of gross profit, up significantly year-over-year. Shipment volumes for smoke-free products rose 12.8%, supported by pricing and mix improvements. Adjusted diluted EPS grew 14.8%, with guidance for 5-7% organic net revenue growth ahead. This transition mitigates traditional tobacco risks, bolstering investor sentiment amid consistent dividend hikes.
TGT Overview and Recent Performance
Target Corporation (TGT), a leading U.S. general merchandise retailer, emphasizes omnichannel sales across apparel, essentials, and home goods. Recent weeks have brought positive momentum, with YTD returns around 23% outperforming the S&P 500, though shares experienced volatility post-earnings. Fourth-quarter 2025 net sales fell 1.5% to $30.5 billion, with comparable sales down 2.6%, but adjusted EPS beat estimates at $2.44. Full-year operating income declined 8%, yet gross margins improved slightly to 26.6% due to lower shrink and supply chain costs. New CEO initiatives include price reductions on over 3,000 items to drive traffic, alongside growth in digital and membership revenues, fostering optimism for sales stabilization.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
DEO, PM, and TGT differ markedly in business models: DEO relies on premium spirits with geographic diversification but vulnerability to luxury demand slowdowns; PM leverages a defensive tobacco base transitioning to higher-margin smoke-free alternatives (41%+ revenue share); TGT drives mass-market retail through value pricing and digital integration. Growth drivers contrast PM's 12-15% smoke-free expansion against TGT's traffic recovery efforts and DEO's capacity investments. Recent momentum favors TGT (YTD +23%) over PM's stability and DEO's declines. Risk factors include consumer pullback for DEO and TGT, regulatory hurdles for PM. Valuation sensitivity shows TGT at low-teens P/E versus higher multiples for staples peers; sentiment tilts toward PM's transformation amid staples resilience.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Tickeron’s AI currently leans toward PM based on consistent trend strength in smoke-free growth, superior multi-year returns (e.g., 95% over three years), and defensive sector positioning with expanding margins. While TGT offers compelling near-term momentum and value, and DEO holds premium potential post-reset, PM's catalysts like 5-7% revenue guidance provide higher probability of relative outperformance in varied conditions.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer. Disclaimers and Limitations
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
DEO’s FA Score shows that 1 FA rating(s) are green whilePM’s FA Score has 3 green FA rating(s), and TGT’s FA Score reflects 2 green FA rating(s).
- DEO’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- PM’s FA Score: 3 green, 2 red.
- TGT’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
DEO’s TA Score shows that 4 TA indicator(s) are bullish while PM’s TA Score has 5 bullish TA indicator(s), and TGT’s TA Score reflects 4 bullish TA indicator(s).
- DEO’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 5 bearish.
- PM’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 5 bearish.
- TGT’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 3 bearish.
Price Growth
DEO (@Beverages: Alcoholic) experienced а +5.63% price change this week, while PM (@Tobacco) price change was +1.49% , and TGT (@Discount Stores) price fluctuated +1.20% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Beverages: Alcoholic industry was -0.78%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -6.61%, and the average quarterly price growth was -18.17%.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Tobacco industry was +0.39%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +1.02%, and the average quarterly price growth was -8.00%.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Discount Stores industry was -0.78%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -2.41%, and the average quarterly price growth was +9.75%.
Reported Earning Dates
DEO is expected to report earnings on May 06, 2026.
PM is expected to report earnings on Apr 22, 2026.
TGT is expected to report earnings on May 20, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Beverages: Alcoholic (-0.78% weekly)The alcoholic beverage market includes beer, wine, and spirits. From $230 billion in 2015, the industry has grown to around $250 billion by 2019. In recent years, alcoholic beverage makers have been looking to expand distribution and purchase channels, such as through online stores (e.g. e-commerce platform Drizly) and convenience stores. Anheuser-Busch In Bev and Diageo are major global alcoholic beverage companies, while U.S.-owned companies include Constellation Brands and Brown-Forman Corp. among several others.
@Tobacco (+0.39% weekly)The industry is engaged in the growth, preparation for sale, advertisement, and distribution of tobacco and tobacco-related products like cigarettes. In 2017, tobacco companies spent an estimated $9.36 billion marketing cigarettes and smokeless tobacco in the U.S. – an amount that translates to more than $25 million each day (according to a CDC report). Philip Morris International Inc., Altria Group Inc., and British American Tobacco plc are some major cigar makers. In recent times, vaping or the use of e-cigarette (does not burn tobacco) is gaining momentum – several established cigarette makers are trying to expand their footprint in this new market.
@Discount Stores (-0.78% weekly)Companies in the discount stores industry specialize in offering substantial discounts on a vast array of retail products. Some companies in this industry also operate general merchandise warehouse clubs. Products sold at discount stores are typically similar to those of any department store, but the pricing of the goods is generally much lower (and hence the name “discount”). Think Dollar General Corporation, Dollar Tree, Inc. and Five Below, Inc. Many discount stores target low-income households and/or price-sensitive consumers as their potential market. Discount stores’ profitability could hinge on factors like competitive pricing, sufficient locations, healthy revenue per square foot, and effective advertisement. These store operators could have an edge over other retailers during financial crises or recessions, when many consumers could be looking for less expensive alternatives.
| DEO | PM | TGT | |
| Capitalization | 43.1B | 250B | 55.2B |
| EBITDA | 6.39B | 17.5B | 8.4B |
| Gain YTD | -10.224 | 0.924 | 25.964 |
| P/E Ratio | 17.90 | 22.09 | 14.99 |
| Revenue | 19.8B | 40.6B | 105B |
| Total Cash | 2.69B | N/A | 1.04B |
| Total Debt | 23.5B | 48.8B | 20B |
DEO | PM | TGT | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 4 | 17 | 9 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 13 Undervalued | 23 Undervalued | 59 Fair valued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 100 | 16 | 100 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 97 | 3 | 36 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 77 | 58 | 17 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 54 | 74 | 26 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | n/a | 50 | 75 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
DEO's Valuation (13) in the Beverages Alcoholic industry is in the same range as PM (23) in the Tobacco industry, and is somewhat better than the same rating for TGT (59) in the Specialty Stores industry. This means that DEO's stock grew similarly to PM’s and somewhat faster than TGT’s over the last 12 months.
PM's Profit vs Risk Rating (16) in the Tobacco industry is significantly better than the same rating for DEO (100) in the Beverages Alcoholic industry, and is significantly better than the same rating for TGT (100) in the Specialty Stores industry. This means that PM's stock grew significantly faster than DEO’s and significantly faster than TGT’s over the last 12 months.
PM's SMR Rating (3) in the Tobacco industry is somewhat better than the same rating for TGT (36) in the Specialty Stores industry, and is significantly better than the same rating for DEO (97) in the Beverages Alcoholic industry. This means that PM's stock grew somewhat faster than TGT’s and significantly faster than DEO’s over the last 12 months.
TGT's Price Growth Rating (17) in the Specialty Stores industry is somewhat better than the same rating for PM (58) in the Tobacco industry, and is somewhat better than the same rating for DEO (77) in the Beverages Alcoholic industry. This means that TGT's stock grew somewhat faster than PM’s and somewhat faster than DEO’s over the last 12 months.
TGT's P/E Growth Rating (26) in the Specialty Stores industry is in the same range as DEO (54) in the Beverages Alcoholic industry, and is somewhat better than the same rating for PM (74) in the Tobacco industry. This means that TGT's stock grew similarly to DEO’s and somewhat faster than PM’s over the last 12 months.
| DEO | PM | TGT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 43% | 1 day ago 73% | N/A |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 58% | 1 day ago 51% | 1 day ago 63% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 56% | 1 day ago 42% | 1 day ago 70% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 51% | 1 day ago 45% | 1 day ago 63% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 46% | 1 day ago 56% | 1 day ago 67% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 55% | 1 day ago 51% | 1 day ago 68% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 42% | 3 days ago 57% | 3 days ago 67% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 23 days ago 59% | 23 days ago 47% | 23 days ago 64% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 71% | 5 days ago 68% | 1 day ago 63% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 51% | 1 day ago 41% | 1 day ago 51% |
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DEO and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, DEO has been closely correlated with PRNDY. These tickers have moved in lockstep 69% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if DEO jumps, then PRNDY could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To DEO | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DEO | 100% | -1.38% | ||
| PRNDY - DEO | 69% Closely correlated | +1.06% | ||
| MGPI - DEO | 55% Loosely correlated | -0.74% | ||
| BUD - DEO | 55% Loosely correlated | +0.72% | ||
| STZ - DEO | 54% Loosely correlated | +1.89% | ||
| REMYY - DEO | 44% Loosely correlated | +1.32% | ||
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PM and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, PM has been loosely correlated with BTI. These tickers have moved in lockstep 55% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if PM jumps, then BTI could also see price increases.
TGT and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, TGT has been loosely correlated with DLTR. These tickers have moved in lockstep 33% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if TGT jumps, then DLTR could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To TGT | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TGT | 100% | -1.73% | ||
| DLTR - TGT | 33% Loosely correlated | -2.97% | ||
| WMT - TGT | 27% Poorly correlated | -1.83% | ||
| OLLI - TGT | 27% Poorly correlated | -2.68% | ||
| COST - TGT | 27% Poorly correlated | -3.25% | ||
| PSMT - TGT | 24% Poorly correlated | -2.62% | ||
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