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DG or KDP or KO
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Dollar General (DG) vs. Keurig Dr Pepper (KDP) vs. Coca-Cola (KO) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- DG reported strong Q4 fiscal 2025 results with 5.9% sales growth and EPS of $1.93, beating estimates, but shares fell on conservative 2026 guidance projecting 2.2%-2.7% comparable sales growth.
- KDP showed Q4 2025 net sales up 10.5% to $4.5 billion and adjusted EPS of $0.60, surpassing expectations, with analysts forecasting 26% upside amid strategic acquisitions.
- KO delivered resilient performance with shares up over 11% YTD and 12% over the past year, supported by steady organic revenue growth and 64 years of dividend increases.
- KO trades at a premium forward P/E of about 24x with lower volatility (beta ~0.6), while KDP offers value at 12x and DG around 18x amid retail pressures.
- Consumer staples like these provide defensive exposure, but DG faces value retail competition, while beverage peers benefit from brand strength and volume trends.
Introduction
This stock comparison examines DG (Dollar General), a discount retailer serving value-conscious consumers, against KDP (Keurig Dr Pepper) and KO (Coca-Cola), leading beverage companies with global reach. These stocks span consumer staples, appealing to investors seeking stability amid economic uncertainty, relative performance analysis, and market positioning in discount retail versus non-alcoholic beverages. Traders may use this for sector rotation or diversification, focusing on recent earnings momentum, valuation contrasts, and risk profiles in the current environment.
DG Overview and Recent Performance
Dollar General (DG) operates over 20,000 small-format stores, targeting rural and low-income shoppers with everyday essentials at low prices. In recent market activity, DG reported Q4 fiscal 2025 net sales of $10.9 billion, up 5.9% year-over-year, with same-store sales rising 4.3% on traffic and basket growth. EPS surged 121.8% to $1.93, beating consensus by 19.7%, driven by gross margin expansion from shrink reduction and efficiency initiatives like removing self-checkout. However, 2026 guidance for 3.7%-4.2% sales growth and flat-to-1% comps tempered sentiment, leading to post-earnings pressure despite operational progress. Shares have gained over 70% in the past year but remain volatile in discount retail.
KDP Overview and Recent Performance
Keurig Dr Pepper (KDP) combines coffee systems, soft drinks, and emerging beverages, with strong U.S. Refreshment Beverages growth. Recent quarters showed Q4 2025 net sales up 10.5% to $4.5 billion, exceeding estimates by 3.1%, and adjusted EPS of $0.60, up 1.7% and beating by 1.7%. Full-year sales rose 8.2% to $16.6 billion. Strategic moves like JDE Peet's acquisition and new coffee launches bolster growth prospects, with analysts projecting 26% upside. Shares have faced headwinds, down about 15% over the past year, but low beta (~0.4) and 3.3% dividend yield support stability in beverages.
KO Overview and Recent Performance
Coca-Cola (KO), the beverage icon, boasts a vast portfolio of brands with global distribution. In recent market activity, KO rallied 12.5% in the past month, up 11% YTD and 12% over the year, outperforming peers amid consumer staples resilience. Q4 2025 organic revenue grew 5%, with full-year momentum from volume improvements and brand investments. The company's 64th consecutive dividend hike underscores reliability, with a 2.7% yield. Lower volatility (beta ~0.6) and consistent execution in navigating macro pressures have driven positive sentiment, positioning KO as a defensive staple.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
DG’s discount retail model thrives on value seekers but exposes it to competition and shrink risks, contrasting KDP and KO’s branded beverage stability with recurring demand. Growth drivers differ: DG via store efficiencies (recent comps +4.3%), KDP through acquisitions and refreshment volume (+10.5% Q4 sales), KO on global organic trends (+5%). Recent momentum favors KO (YTD +11%), with DG rebounding 70% yearly but volatile post-guidance, and KDP lagging (-15% 1Y). Risk factors include DG’s higher beta (~1.0) versus peers’ defensiveness (KDP beta 0.4, KO 0.6). Valuation sensitivity shows KDP cheapest (forward P/E ~12x), DG mid (~18x), KO premium (24x) for reliability. Sector exposure highlights retail cyclicality for DG against staples consistency, with sentiment tilted to beverages amid economic caution.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Tickeron’s AI currently leans toward KO based on superior trend consistency, lower relative volatility, positive YTD momentum, and catalysts like dividend growth and volume recovery. While KDP offers valuation appeal and DG earnings beats, KO’s stability and outperformance in recent market conditions position it favorably for probabilistic edge in consumer staples.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer. Disclaimers and Limitations
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
DG’s FA Score shows that 1 FA rating(s) are green whileKDP’s FA Score has 1 green FA rating(s), and KO’s FA Score reflects 2 green FA rating(s).
- DG’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- KDP’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- KO’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
DG’s TA Score shows that 5 TA indicator(s) are bullish while KDP’s TA Score has 6 bullish TA indicator(s), and KO’s TA Score reflects 5 bullish TA indicator(s).
- DG’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 5 bearish.
- KDP’s TA Score: 6 bullish, 4 bearish.
- KO’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 5 bearish.
Price Growth
DG (@Discount Stores) experienced а +0.48% price change this week, while KDP (@Beverages: Non-Alcoholic) price change was +4.39% , and KO (@Beverages: Non-Alcoholic) price fluctuated +1.90% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Discount Stores industry was +0.71%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -1.87%, and the average quarterly price growth was +11.43%.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Beverages: Non-Alcoholic industry was +2.02%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -3.13%, and the average quarterly price growth was +164976.25%.
Reported Earning Dates
DG is expected to report earnings on May 21, 2026.
KDP is expected to report earnings on Apr 23, 2026.
KO is expected to report earnings on Apr 28, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Discount Stores (+0.71% weekly)Companies in the discount stores industry specialize in offering substantial discounts on a vast array of retail products. Some companies in this industry also operate general merchandise warehouse clubs. Products sold at discount stores are typically similar to those of any department store, but the pricing of the goods is generally much lower (and hence the name “discount”). Think Dollar General Corporation, Dollar Tree, Inc. and Five Below, Inc. Many discount stores target low-income households and/or price-sensitive consumers as their potential market. Discount stores’ profitability could hinge on factors like competitive pricing, sufficient locations, healthy revenue per square foot, and effective advertisement. These store operators could have an edge over other retailers during financial crises or recessions, when many consumers could be looking for less expensive alternatives.
@Beverages: Non-Alcoholic (+2.02% weekly)Non-alcoholic drinks include traces of alcohol or low alcohol content or without alcohol or alcohol removed. Functional Beverages, Carbonated Soft Drinks (CSDs), Sports Drinks, Fruit Beverages, and Bottled Water are some common types of non-alcoholic beverages. The largest segment in this market is soft drinks (think Pepsi and Coke). Many established companies in this space have also been stepping up production of low to zero-calorie varieties in recent years, to cater to a rising number of health-conscious consumers. Coca-Cola Company, Pepsico Inc, Keurig Dr Pepper Inc. and Monster Beverage Corporation are some major non-alcoholic beverage makers.
| DG | KDP | KO | |
| Capitalization | 26.4B | 35.9B | 336B |
| EBITDA | 3.24B | 4.19B | 18.7B |
| Gain YTD | -8.992 | -4.056 | 12.598 |
| P/E Ratio | 17.48 | 17.27 | 25.72 |
| Revenue | 42.7B | 16.6B | 47.9B |
| Total Cash | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Total Debt | 15.7B | 17.6B | 45.5B |
DG | KDP | KO | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 7 | 61 | 13 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 33 Fair valued | 25 Undervalued | 43 Fair valued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 100 | 100 | 9 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 45 | 74 | 20 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 57 | 62 | 34 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 55 | 94 | 70 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 50 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
KDP's Valuation (25) in the Beverages Non Alcoholic industry is in the same range as DG (33) in the Discount Stores industry, and is in the same range as KO (43) in the Beverages Non Alcoholic industry. This means that KDP's stock grew similarly to DG’s and similarly to KO’s over the last 12 months.
KO's Profit vs Risk Rating (9) in the Beverages Non Alcoholic industry is significantly better than the same rating for KDP (100) in the Beverages Non Alcoholic industry, and is significantly better than the same rating for DG (100) in the Discount Stores industry. This means that KO's stock grew significantly faster than KDP’s and significantly faster than DG’s over the last 12 months.
KO's SMR Rating (20) in the Beverages Non Alcoholic industry is in the same range as DG (45) in the Discount Stores industry, and is somewhat better than the same rating for KDP (74) in the Beverages Non Alcoholic industry. This means that KO's stock grew similarly to DG’s and somewhat faster than KDP’s over the last 12 months.
KO's Price Growth Rating (34) in the Beverages Non Alcoholic industry is in the same range as DG (57) in the Discount Stores industry, and is in the same range as KDP (62) in the Beverages Non Alcoholic industry. This means that KO's stock grew similarly to DG’s and similarly to KDP’s over the last 12 months.
DG's P/E Growth Rating (55) in the Discount Stores industry is in the same range as KO (70) in the Beverages Non Alcoholic industry, and is somewhat better than the same rating for KDP (94) in the Beverages Non Alcoholic industry. This means that DG's stock grew similarly to KO’s and somewhat faster than KDP’s over the last 12 months.
| DG | KDP | KO | |
|---|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 56% | 1 day ago 68% | 1 day ago 46% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 62% | 1 day ago 46% | 1 day ago 27% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 59% | 1 day ago 40% | 1 day ago 32% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 54% | 1 day ago 45% | 1 day ago 30% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 62% | 1 day ago 44% | 1 day ago 38% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 66% | 1 day ago 43% | 1 day ago 36% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 62% | 1 day ago 49% | 1 day ago 39% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 14 days ago 64% | 8 days ago 45% | 21 days ago 29% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 65% | 3 days ago 65% | 1 day ago 22% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 60% | 1 day ago 35% | 1 day ago 24% |
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DG and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, DG has been loosely correlated with DLTR. These tickers have moved in lockstep 43% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if DG jumps, then DLTR could also see price increases.
KDP and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, KDP has been loosely correlated with PEP. These tickers have moved in lockstep 51% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if KDP jumps, then PEP could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To KDP | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| KDP | 100% | +2.24% | ||
| PEP - KDP | 51% Loosely correlated | +1.74% | ||
| KO - KDP | 49% Loosely correlated | +1.15% | ||
| FIZZ - KDP | 42% Loosely correlated | +2.34% | ||
| MNST - KDP | 34% Loosely correlated | +1.40% | ||
| CCEP - KDP | 32% Poorly correlated | +0.49% | ||
More | ||||
KO and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, KO has been loosely correlated with CCEP. These tickers have moved in lockstep 60% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if KO jumps, then CCEP could also see price increases.