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DG or KR or MDLZ
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Dollar General (DG) vs. Kroger (KR) vs. Mondelez International (MDLZ) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- DG trades at a trailing P/E of about 18, the lowest among the three, suggesting relative value in the discount retail space amid recent earnings beats but YTD declines.
- KR leads YTD performance with gains around 18%, supported by store investments and stable grocery demand, though its high trailing P/E near 48 reflects one-off factors.
- MDLZ offers the highest dividend yield at roughly 3.4%, appealing for income investors, but faces headwinds from cost pressures and analyst downgrades.
- Recent market activity shows KR with stronger momentum, while DG and MDLZ lag YTD, highlighting sector resilience in supermarkets over snacks and variety stores.
- All three exhibit low betas under 0.6, indicating defensive positioning suitable for volatile markets, with varying exposure to consumer staples trends.
Introduction
This stock comparison examines DG (Dollar General), KR (Kroger), and MDLZ (Mondelez International), three consumer staples players spanning discount retail, supermarkets, and packaged foods. Investors and traders tracking defensive sectors may find value here, as these stocks offer stability amid economic uncertainty. Recent performance reflects shifting consumer behaviors, with grocery essentials outperforming discretionary snacks and variety items. Key metrics like valuation, momentum, and dividends provide insights into relative positioning in today's market environment.
DG Overview and Recent Performance
Dollar General (DG), a leading discount retailer with over 19,000 stores targeting rural and low-income consumers, focuses on everyday essentials. In recent market activity, DG shares have hovered around $118, down roughly 11% YTD but up over 35% annually. Q4 fiscal 2025 earnings beat expectations with revenue up 5.9% to $10.9 billion and same-store sales rising 4.3%, driven by higher traffic and transaction values. Despite a post-earnings dip due to cautious guidance (2.2%-2.7% sales growth), Project Elevate initiatives are lifting comparable sales by 3%. Sentiment remains mixed, pressured by broader retail weakness but buoyed by value-oriented demand.
KR Overview and Recent Performance
Kroger (KR), the largest U.S. supermarket chain operating under banners like Ralphs and Fred Meyer, emphasizes groceries and pharmacy services. Shares trade near $73, up about 18% YTD and 11% over the past year, outperforming peers. Recent weeks have seen gains amid investments exceeding $112 million in stores and new customer offers amid rising gas prices. Q4 revenue hit $34.7 billion with gross margins improving to 23.1%, reflecting operational efficiencies. Positive analyst updates, including price target hikes, support sentiment, though valuation risks from a high trailing P/E persist. Steady comparable sales growth of 1%-2% underscores resilience in essential retail.
MDLZ Overview and Recent Performance
Mondelez International (MDLZ), a global snacking giant behind Oreo and Cadbury, operates in packaged foods with strong emerging market exposure. Shares around $58 have risen modestly YTD by 8%, but declined 11%-14% annually amid demand and cost concerns. Recent analyst actions include Deutsche Bank and Rothschild lowering targets due to volume weakness and competition, with price goals cut to $54-$60. Focus on seasonal products provides some lift, but rising input costs pressure margins. Trading at a trailing P/E near 31, MDLZ reflects cautious sentiment in consumer packaged goods.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
DG, KR, and MDLZ operate in consumer staples but differ in models: DG's small-format discount focus targets value seekers, KR's large supermarkets drive volume via essentials, and MDLZ's branded snacks emphasize premium pricing. Growth drivers include KR's store upgrades and DG's rural expansion, versus MDLZ's international volumes. Recent momentum favors KR (18% YTD), over MDLZ (8%) and DG (-11%). Risks: DG sensitive to low-income spending, KR to grocery competition, MDLZ to commodity costs. Valuation: DG cheapest at P/E 18 (market cap $26B), KR forward P/E 14 ($45B cap), MDLZ priciest at 31 ($74B cap). Sentiment tilts toward grocery stability over snacks.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Tickeron's AI currently favors KR due to superior trend consistency, YTD momentum, and forward valuation attractiveness in a staples rotation. Its low beta (0.59) and essential exposure position it well relative to DG's earnings volatility and MDLZ's margin pressures, though probabilities hinge on broader consumer trends.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
DG’s FA Score shows that 1 FA rating(s) are green whileKR’s FA Score has 2 green FA rating(s), and MDLZ’s FA Score reflects 2 green FA rating(s).
- DG’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- KR’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
- MDLZ’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
DG’s TA Score shows that 4 TA indicator(s) are bullish while KR’s TA Score has 5 bullish TA indicator(s), and MDLZ’s TA Score reflects 6 bullish TA indicator(s).
- DG’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 6 bearish.
- KR’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 5 bearish.
- MDLZ’s TA Score: 6 bullish, 4 bearish.
Price Growth
DG (@Discount Stores) experienced а -2.89% price change this week, while KR (@Food Retail) price change was -6.03% , and MDLZ (@Food: Specialty/Candy) price fluctuated +2.54% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Discount Stores industry was -0.78%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -2.41%, and the average quarterly price growth was +9.75%.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Food Retail industry was +0.67%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -1.48%, and the average quarterly price growth was +2.76%.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Food: Specialty/Candy industry was +1.04%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -0.63%, and the average quarterly price growth was +4.29%.
Reported Earning Dates
DG is expected to report earnings on May 21, 2026.
KR is expected to report earnings on Jun 11, 2026.
MDLZ is expected to report earnings on Apr 28, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Discount Stores (-0.78% weekly)Companies in the discount stores industry specialize in offering substantial discounts on a vast array of retail products. Some companies in this industry also operate general merchandise warehouse clubs. Products sold at discount stores are typically similar to those of any department store, but the pricing of the goods is generally much lower (and hence the name “discount”). Think Dollar General Corporation, Dollar Tree, Inc. and Five Below, Inc. Many discount stores target low-income households and/or price-sensitive consumers as their potential market. Discount stores’ profitability could hinge on factors like competitive pricing, sufficient locations, healthy revenue per square foot, and effective advertisement. These store operators could have an edge over other retailers during financial crises or recessions, when many consumers could be looking for less expensive alternatives.
@Food Retail (+0.67% weekly)The food retail industry includes companies that sell food, beverage and household products. Items sold include grocery, gourmet food, fresh produce, and frozen food. Kroger Co., George Weston Ltd., Grocery Outlet Holding Corp., and Sprouts Farmers Markets, Inc. are examples of major food retailers. While e-commerce companies like Amazon have increasingly been ramping-up offerings in the food retail space, several traditional players have also been expanding their online presence to stand their ground against rising competition.
@Food: Specialty/Candy (+1.04% weekly)A specialty/candy manufacturer specializes in one or more of the following: chocolate, candies, pasta, condiments, seasonings, among other items. Hershey Company, McCormick & Company and J.M. Smucker Company are some of the major firms in this segment. Demand for this industry’s products comes from both institutions/restaurants as well as households.
| DG | KR | MDLZ | |
| Capitalization | 25.5B | 41.6B | 75.7B |
| EBITDA | 3.24B | 5.43B | 4.97B |
| Gain YTD | -12.047 | 9.365 | 10.553 |
| P/E Ratio | 16.89 | 44.15 | 31.22 |
| Revenue | 42.7B | 147B | 38.5B |
| Total Cash | N/A | 879M | N/A |
| Total Debt | 15.7B | 25.2B | 21.8B |
DG | KR | MDLZ | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 5 | 56 | 19 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 31 Undervalued | 55 Fair valued | 27 Undervalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 100 | 23 | 72 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 45 | 77 | 71 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 59 | 50 | 53 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 62 | 10 | 20 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 50 | 85 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
MDLZ's Valuation (27) in the Food Major Diversified industry is in the same range as DG (31) in the Discount Stores industry, and is in the same range as KR (55) in the Food Retail industry. This means that MDLZ's stock grew similarly to DG’s and similarly to KR’s over the last 12 months.
KR's Profit vs Risk Rating (23) in the Food Retail industry is somewhat better than the same rating for MDLZ (72) in the Food Major Diversified industry, and is significantly better than the same rating for DG (100) in the Discount Stores industry. This means that KR's stock grew somewhat faster than MDLZ’s and significantly faster than DG’s over the last 12 months.
DG's SMR Rating (45) in the Discount Stores industry is in the same range as MDLZ (71) in the Food Major Diversified industry, and is in the same range as KR (77) in the Food Retail industry. This means that DG's stock grew similarly to MDLZ’s and similarly to KR’s over the last 12 months.
KR's Price Growth Rating (50) in the Food Retail industry is in the same range as MDLZ (53) in the Food Major Diversified industry, and is in the same range as DG (59) in the Discount Stores industry. This means that KR's stock grew similarly to MDLZ’s and similarly to DG’s over the last 12 months.
KR's P/E Growth Rating (10) in the Food Retail industry is in the same range as MDLZ (20) in the Food Major Diversified industry, and is somewhat better than the same rating for DG (62) in the Discount Stores industry. This means that KR's stock grew similarly to MDLZ’s and somewhat faster than DG’s over the last 12 months.
| DG | KR | MDLZ | |
|---|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 56% | 1 day ago 63% | 1 day ago 66% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 60% | 1 day ago 68% | 1 day ago 48% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 72% | 1 day ago 49% | 1 day ago 47% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 52% | 1 day ago 39% | 1 day ago 56% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 66% | 1 day ago 47% | 1 day ago 51% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 66% | 1 day ago 53% | 1 day ago 48% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 6 days ago 62% | 6 days ago 57% | 3 days ago 53% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 64% | 1 day ago 47% | 11 days ago 49% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 58% | 1 day ago 69% | 1 day ago 59% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 60% | 1 day ago 58% | 1 day ago 49% |
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| 1 Day | |||
|---|---|---|---|
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| SSK | 11.65 | 0.19 | +1.66% |
| REX-Osprey SOL + Staking ETF | |||
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| Nuveen California AMT-Free Quality Municipal Income Fund | |||
| SCHO | 24.22 | -0.01 | -0.04% |
| Schwab Short-Term US Treasury ETF™ | |||
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| EZJ | 58.31 | -1.03 | -1.73% |
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KR and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, KR has been loosely correlated with ACI. These tickers have moved in lockstep 56% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if KR jumps, then ACI could also see price increases.
MDLZ and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, MDLZ has been loosely correlated with GIS. These tickers have moved in lockstep 65% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if MDLZ jumps, then GIS could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To MDLZ | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MDLZ | 100% | -0.15% | ||
| GIS - MDLZ | 65% Loosely correlated | -1.52% | ||
| CAG - MDLZ | 59% Loosely correlated | -2.38% | ||
| CPB - MDLZ | 58% Loosely correlated | -1.73% | ||
| KHC - MDLZ | 58% Loosely correlated | -0.90% | ||
| MKC - MDLZ | 58% Loosely correlated | +4.41% | ||
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