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DG or PM or STZ
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Dollar General (DG) vs. Philip Morris (PM) vs. Constellation Brands (STZ) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- DG leads with strong YTD gains of over 10% and a remarkable 82% one-year return, driven by robust long-term recovery despite near-term retail pressures.
- PM offers defensive stability in tobacco with a 3.4% dividend yield, consistent profitability, and YTD performance of 8%, bolstered by smoke-free product growth.
- STZ shows resilience in beverages with recent earnings beats and a leadership transition, trading at an attractive forward P/E under 12 amid premium brand focus.
- All three exhibit YTD outperformance versus the S&P 500, but DG shines in momentum while PM and STZ provide higher dividend appeal in consumer defensive sectors.
- Upcoming catalysts include DG's Q4 earnings on March 12, potentially influencing short-term sentiment across discount retail and staples peers.
Introduction
This stock comparison evaluates DG (Dollar General), PM (Philip Morris International), and STZ (Constellation Brands) amid current market volatility from geopolitical tensions and economic shifts. These consumer-focused names span discount retail, tobacco, and beverages, offering traders insights into defensive plays with varying growth profiles. Investors seeking relative performance in staples, momentum in recovery stories, or stability via dividends will find value in analyzing their recent trajectories, valuations, and sector dynamics for informed positioning.
DG Overview and Recent Performance
Dollar General (DG), a leading discount retailer targeting low-to-middle-income consumers, operates over 19,000 stores across rural and suburban U.S. markets. In recent market activity, DG shares have traded around $145, reflecting YTD gains exceeding 10% and a striking 82% one-year advance, outpacing broader indices. Sentiment has been influenced by analyst upgrades and anticipation for Q4 earnings on March 12, where revenue growth of 4.7% is projected alongside a modest EPS dip. Challenges like store safety closures and gas price sensitivity have tempered weekly dips of about 5%, yet long-term recovery from prior lows underscores resilient demand for essentials. Trading at a forward P/E of 20.4, DG balances growth potential with operational efficiencies.
PM Overview and Recent Performance
Philip Morris International (PM), a global tobacco giant, focuses on smoke-free products like IQOS and ZYN alongside traditional cigarettes. Shares hover near $173, with YTD returns of 8% and 19% over one year, supported by a 3.4% dividend yield. Recent weeks saw minor pullbacks post-earnings miss and debt delisting notes, yet profitability metrics improved with gross margins at 67% and net margins at 29%. Growth in smoke-free volumes drives sentiment, with analysts maintaining Strong Buy ratings and targets around $195. Operating in the defensive consumer staples sector, PM benefits from pricing power and transition to higher-margin alternatives, trading at a forward P/E of 20.6 amid stable cash flows.
STZ Overview and Recent Performance
Constellation Brands (STZ), a major player in beer, wine, and spirits with brands like Corona and Modelo, emphasizes premiumization. Shares at $149 mark YTD gains of 8.7% and 18% annually, despite longer-term underperformance. Recent leadership shift to CEO Nicholas Fink signals strategic focus on high-growth beers amid wine divestitures. Q3 earnings beat estimates with EPS of $3.06, boosting shares post-report, though volume pressures persist. Analysts see value at a forward P/E of 11.9 and 2.7% yield, with targets averaging $171. In consumer defensive beverages, STZ navigates demand challenges via market share gains in premium segments.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
DG, PM, and STZ operate in consumer staples but diverge in models: DG's high-volume discount retail faces macroeconomic sensitivity like fuel costs, contrasting PM's pricing-resilient tobacco shift to smoke-free and STZ's premium beverages exposed to volumes but gaining via brands. Growth drivers favor DG's 82% yearly surge versus peers' 18-19%, though STZ eyes recovery post-earnings. Risks include DG's operational scrutiny, regulatory hurdles for PM, and demand softness for STZ. Valuations show STZ's lowest forward P/E (11.9), PM's superior yield (3.4%), and balanced sentiment with Hold/Buy consensus. DG leads momentum, while peers offer stability trades.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Tickeron’s AI leans toward DG in the current environment, given its superior trend consistency, YTD leadership, and positive earnings setup amid retail resilience. While PM excels in stability and STZ in valuation, DG's relative momentum and catalysts position it favorably for probabilistic outperformance, aligning with AI bots favoring high-return staples rotations.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full Disclaimers and Limitations.
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
DG’s FA Score shows that 1 FA rating(s) are green whilePM’s FA Score has 3 green FA rating(s), and STZ’s FA Score reflects 0 green FA rating(s).
- DG’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- PM’s FA Score: 3 green, 2 red.
- STZ’s FA Score: 0 green, 5 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
DG’s TA Score shows that 5 TA indicator(s) are bullish while PM’s TA Score has 5 bullish TA indicator(s), and STZ’s TA Score reflects 5 bullish TA indicator(s).
- DG’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 5 bearish.
- PM’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 5 bearish.
- STZ’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 5 bearish.
Price Growth
DG (@Discount Stores) experienced а +0.48% price change this week, while PM (@Tobacco) price change was +1.99% , and STZ (@Food: Meat/Fish/Dairy) price fluctuated +7.85% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Discount Stores industry was +0.71%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -1.87%, and the average quarterly price growth was +11.43%.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Tobacco industry was +1.70%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +1.58%, and the average quarterly price growth was -7.40%.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Food: Meat/Fish/Dairy industry was +3.37%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -0.27%, and the average quarterly price growth was +8.13%.
Reported Earning Dates
DG is expected to report earnings on May 21, 2026.
PM is expected to report earnings on Apr 22, 2026.
STZ is expected to report earnings on Jul 08, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Discount Stores (+0.71% weekly)Companies in the discount stores industry specialize in offering substantial discounts on a vast array of retail products. Some companies in this industry also operate general merchandise warehouse clubs. Products sold at discount stores are typically similar to those of any department store, but the pricing of the goods is generally much lower (and hence the name “discount”). Think Dollar General Corporation, Dollar Tree, Inc. and Five Below, Inc. Many discount stores target low-income households and/or price-sensitive consumers as their potential market. Discount stores’ profitability could hinge on factors like competitive pricing, sufficient locations, healthy revenue per square foot, and effective advertisement. These store operators could have an edge over other retailers during financial crises or recessions, when many consumers could be looking for less expensive alternatives.
@Tobacco (+1.70% weekly)The industry is engaged in the growth, preparation for sale, advertisement, and distribution of tobacco and tobacco-related products like cigarettes. In 2017, tobacco companies spent an estimated $9.36 billion marketing cigarettes and smokeless tobacco in the U.S. – an amount that translates to more than $25 million each day (according to a CDC report). Philip Morris International Inc., Altria Group Inc., and British American Tobacco plc are some major cigar makers. In recent times, vaping or the use of e-cigarette (does not burn tobacco) is gaining momentum – several established cigarette makers are trying to expand their footprint in this new market.
@Food: Meat/Fish/Dairy (+3.37% weekly)The meat, fish, and dairy food industry processes livestock, fish and milk products for consumer consumption. Some companies also process dairy byproducts. Tyson Foods, Inc., Hormel Foods Corporation and Pilgrims Pride Corp. are some of the biggest producers in this industry. Many of these companies are recipients of American farm subsidies. On the other hand, new-age food innovation like plant-based meat substitutes (which are designed to simulate chicken, beef, and pork sausage) could potentially augur disruptions and/or create new competition in this space.
| DG | PM | STZ | |
| Capitalization | 26.4B | 251B | 28.3B |
| EBITDA | 3.24B | 17.5B | 2.47B |
| Gain YTD | -8.992 | 1.427 | 18.970 |
| P/E Ratio | 17.48 | 22.20 | 16.97 |
| Revenue | 42.7B | 40.6B | 9.38B |
| Total Cash | N/A | N/A | 152M |
| Total Debt | 15.7B | 48.8B | 10.7B |
DG | PM | STZ | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 7 | 16 | 15 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 33 Fair valued | 23 Undervalued | 48 Fair valued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 100 | 16 | 100 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 45 | 3 | 55 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 57 | 57 | 55 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 55 | 73 | 98 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 50 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
PM's Valuation (23) in the Tobacco industry is in the same range as DG (33) in the Discount Stores industry, and is in the same range as STZ (48) in the Beverages Alcoholic industry. This means that PM's stock grew similarly to DG’s and similarly to STZ’s over the last 12 months.
PM's Profit vs Risk Rating (16) in the Tobacco industry is significantly better than the same rating for DG (100) in the Discount Stores industry, and is significantly better than the same rating for STZ (100) in the Beverages Alcoholic industry. This means that PM's stock grew significantly faster than DG’s and significantly faster than STZ’s over the last 12 months.
PM's SMR Rating (3) in the Tobacco industry is somewhat better than the same rating for DG (45) in the Discount Stores industry, and is somewhat better than the same rating for STZ (55) in the Beverages Alcoholic industry. This means that PM's stock grew somewhat faster than DG’s and somewhat faster than STZ’s over the last 12 months.
STZ's Price Growth Rating (55) in the Beverages Alcoholic industry is in the same range as PM (57) in the Tobacco industry, and is in the same range as DG (57) in the Discount Stores industry. This means that STZ's stock grew similarly to PM’s and similarly to DG’s over the last 12 months.
DG's P/E Growth Rating (55) in the Discount Stores industry is in the same range as PM (73) in the Tobacco industry, and is somewhat better than the same rating for STZ (98) in the Beverages Alcoholic industry. This means that DG's stock grew similarly to PM’s and somewhat faster than STZ’s over the last 12 months.
| DG | PM | STZ | |
|---|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 56% | 1 day ago 77% | 1 day ago 48% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 62% | 1 day ago 45% | 1 day ago 43% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 59% | 1 day ago 48% | 1 day ago 48% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 54% | 1 day ago 47% | 1 day ago 51% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 62% | 1 day ago 56% | 1 day ago 49% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 66% | 1 day ago 51% | 1 day ago 48% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 62% | 1 day ago 57% | 4 days ago 50% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 14 days ago 64% | 21 days ago 47% | 2 days ago 59% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 65% | 3 days ago 68% | 1 day ago 41% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 60% | 1 day ago 41% | 1 day ago 38% |
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| 1 Day | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| ETFs / NAME | Price $ | Chg $ | Chg % |
| FDLS | 38.99 | 0.27 | +0.70% |
| Inspire Fidelis Multi Factor ETF | |||
| HIBS | 40.26 | 0.26 | +0.65% |
| Direxion Daily S&P 500® Hi Bt Br 3X ETF | |||
| IWD | 223.17 | 1.22 | +0.55% |
| iShares Russell 1000 Value ETF | |||
| ZNOV | 26.85 | 0.04 | +0.15% |
| Innovator Equity Defined Prt ETF -1YrNov | |||
| GIGB | 46.01 | 0.03 | +0.07% |
| Goldman Sachs Acss Invmt Grd Corp Bd ETF | |||
DG and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, DG has been loosely correlated with DLTR. These tickers have moved in lockstep 43% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if DG jumps, then DLTR could also see price increases.
PM and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, PM has been loosely correlated with BTI. These tickers have moved in lockstep 56% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if PM jumps, then BTI could also see price increases.
STZ and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, STZ has been loosely correlated with SAM. These tickers have moved in lockstep 55% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if STZ jumps, then SAM could also see price increases.