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DG or TGT or WMT
Dollar General (DG) vs Target (TGT) vs Walmart (WMT) Earnings Recap: Recent Reports Signal Retail Resilience
Key Takeaways
- Dollar General (DG) reported Q4 FY2025 net sales up 5.9% to $10.9B, EPS $1.93 (up 121.8%), beating estimates on March 12, 2026.
- Target (TGT) Q4 FY2025 sales down 1.5% to $30.45B, adjusted EPS $2.44 beating estimates, on March 3, 2026.
- Walmart (WMT) Q4 FY2026 revenues up 5.6% to $190.7B, adjusted EPS $0.74 up 12.1%, on February 19, 2026.
- All three beat EPS expectations; DG showed strongest growth, WMT scale advantages, TGT traffic challenges.
- FY2026 guidance: DG sales +3.7-4.2%, EPS $7.10-7.35; TGT EPS $7.50-8.50; WMT sales +3.5-4.5%, EPS $2.75-2.85..pdf)
Earnings Context and Competitive Landscape
In the discount retail sector, earnings reports provide critical insights into consumer spending trends amid economic pressures. DG, TGT, and WMT compete in overlapping value-oriented segments, with DG focusing on rural small-box stores, TGT on urban/suburban upscale discount, and WMT dominating supercenters and e-commerce. Recent Q4 results highlight resilience in essentials and digital sales, but challenges in discretionary categories. Timing of releases—WMT February 19, TGT March 3, DG March 12—allows sequential benchmarking of holiday performance and FY outlook.
Dollar General Focus
Dollar General released Q4 and FY2025 earnings on March 12, 2026, for the period ended January 30, 2026 (fiscal year ends Friday closest to January 31). Net sales rose 5.9% to $10.9 billion, driven by 4.3% same-store sales growth from traffic and basket increases. Gross margin expanded to 30.4%. Operating profit surged 106% to $606 million. Diluted EPS jumped 121.8% to $1.93 from $0.87 (prior year impacted by impairments), beating consensus of $1.57-$1.61. FY2025 net sales up 5.2% to $42.7 billion, EPS $6.85 (up 34.1%). Inventories down 5.7% to $6.3 billion aided margins. FY2026 guidance: sales +3.7%-4.2%, same-store +2.2%-2.7%, EPS $7.10-$7.35.
Target Context
Target reported Q4 and FY2025 earnings on March 3, 2026, for period ended February 1, 2026 (fiscal ends Sunday closest to January 31). Q4 net sales fell 1.5% to $30.45 billion, missing $30.52 billion estimate, with comparable sales down 2.5% due to lower traffic despite digital strength. Adjusted EPS $2.44 beat $2.16 consensus (GAAP $2.30). FY2025 adjusted EPS $7.57, sales down 1.7% to $104.8 billion. Operating income $1.4 billion. Guidance FY2026 adjusted EPS $7.50-$8.50, operating margin up ~20 bps from 4.6%, Q1 flat to slight EPS growth. Focus on cost cuts, inventory management amid discretionary weakness.
Walmart Context
Walmart released Q4 FY2026 earnings on February 19, 2026, for period ended January 31, 2026. Total revenues up 5.6% to $190.7 billion (4.9% constant currency), net sales +4.9% cc. Global e-commerce +24%, membership fees +15.1%. Adjusted operating income +10.5% cc to $8.6 billion. Adjusted EPS $0.74 (up 12.1%), beating $0.73. FY2026 sales topped $700 billion. Strong cash flow: operating $41.6 billion (+14.1%), free $14.9 billion (+17.9%). FY2027 guidance: sales +3.5-4.5% cc, adjusted EPS $2.75-2.85, capex ~3.5% of sales. Emphasis on omnichannel, advertising, memberships..pdf)
Head-to-Head Earnings and Market Comparison
DG led EPS growth (+121.8%) and same-store sales (+4.3%), signaling rural value demand, but smaller scale limits diversification. TGT faced sales decline (-1.5%) from traffic softness, yet EPS beat via margins; higher risk from discretionary exposure. WMT excelled in scale/revenue (+5.6%), e-commerce (+24%), consistent beats, lower volatility. Growth signals favor WMT (membership/advertising), DG efficiency. Risks: inflation for DG, competition for TGT. Sentiment positive post-earnings, WMT P/E ~35x, TGT ~15x, DG ~23x trailing.
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Tickeron AI Verdict
Tickeron AI favors WMT with 65% probability for near-term outperformance. Walmart's massive scale, 24% e-commerce surge, membership growth, and consistent beats provide durable growth signals versus peers. DG's rural strength and EPS surge notable (35% probability), but conservative FY2026 guide tempers momentum. TGT lags (lowest conviction) on sales declines despite EPS resilience, higher cyclical risk.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer. Disclaimers and Limitations
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
DG’s FA Score shows that 0 FA rating(s) are green whileTGT’s FA Score has 2 green FA rating(s), and WMT’s FA Score reflects 2 green FA rating(s).
- DG’s FA Score: 0 green, 5 red.
- TGT’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
- WMT’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
DG’s TA Score shows that 4 TA indicator(s) are bullish while TGT’s TA Score has 4 bullish TA indicator(s), and WMT’s TA Score reflects 5 bullish TA indicator(s).
- DG’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 5 bearish.
- TGT’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 3 bearish.
- WMT’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 4 bearish.
Price Growth
DG (@Discount Stores) experienced а +9.46% price change this week, while TGT (@Discount Stores) price change was +4.88% , and WMT (@Discount Stores) price fluctuated +0.58% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Discount Stores industry was +2.34%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +2.71%, and the average quarterly price growth was +7.10%.
Reported Earning Dates
DG is expected to report earnings on May 21, 2026.
TGT is expected to report earnings on May 20, 2026.
WMT is expected to report earnings on May 14, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Discount Stores (+2.34% weekly)Companies in the discount stores industry specialize in offering substantial discounts on a vast array of retail products. Some companies in this industry also operate general merchandise warehouse clubs. Products sold at discount stores are typically similar to those of any department store, but the pricing of the goods is generally much lower (and hence the name “discount”). Think Dollar General Corporation, Dollar Tree, Inc. and Five Below, Inc. Many discount stores target low-income households and/or price-sensitive consumers as their potential market. Discount stores’ profitability could hinge on factors like competitive pricing, sufficient locations, healthy revenue per square foot, and effective advertisement. These store operators could have an edge over other retailers during financial crises or recessions, when many consumers could be looking for less expensive alternatives.
| DG | TGT | WMT | |
| Capitalization | 27.9B | 57.9B | 1.02T |
| EBITDA | 3.24B | 8.35B | 46.5B |
| Gain YTD | -3.726 | 32.113 | 14.677 |
| P/E Ratio | 18.49 | 15.72 | 46.70 |
| Revenue | 42.7B | 105B | 713B |
| Total Cash | 1.14B | 5.49B | 10.7B |
| Total Debt | 15.7B | 20.3B | 67.1B |
DG | TGT | WMT | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 30 | 23 | 33 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 45 Fair valued | 67 Overvalued | 92 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 100 | 100 | 6 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 46 | 38 | 40 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 52 | 12 | 24 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 62 | 24 | 42 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 23 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
DG's Valuation (45) in the Discount Stores industry is in the same range as TGT (67) in the Specialty Stores industry, and is somewhat better than the same rating for WMT (92) in the Specialty Stores industry. This means that DG's stock grew similarly to TGT’s and somewhat faster than WMT’s over the last 12 months.
WMT's Profit vs Risk Rating (6) in the Specialty Stores industry is significantly better than the same rating for DG (100) in the Discount Stores industry, and is significantly better than the same rating for TGT (100) in the Specialty Stores industry. This means that WMT's stock grew significantly faster than DG’s and significantly faster than TGT’s over the last 12 months.
TGT's SMR Rating (38) in the Specialty Stores industry is in the same range as WMT (40) in the Specialty Stores industry, and is in the same range as DG (46) in the Discount Stores industry. This means that TGT's stock grew similarly to WMT’s and similarly to DG’s over the last 12 months.
TGT's Price Growth Rating (12) in the Specialty Stores industry is in the same range as WMT (24) in the Specialty Stores industry, and is somewhat better than the same rating for DG (52) in the Discount Stores industry. This means that TGT's stock grew similarly to WMT’s and somewhat faster than DG’s over the last 12 months.
TGT's P/E Growth Rating (24) in the Specialty Stores industry is in the same range as WMT (42) in the Specialty Stores industry, and is somewhat better than the same rating for DG (62) in the Discount Stores industry. This means that TGT's stock grew similarly to WMT’s and somewhat faster than DG’s over the last 12 months.
| DG | TGT | WMT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 55% | N/A | N/A |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 56% | 3 days ago 57% | 3 days ago 29% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 53% | 3 days ago 64% | 3 days ago 59% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 64% | 3 days ago 52% | 3 days ago 66% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 62% | 3 days ago 67% | 3 days ago 55% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 66% | 3 days ago 68% | 3 days ago 53% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 62% | 3 days ago 67% | 3 days ago 55% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 10 days ago 64% | 7 days ago 64% | 7 days ago 34% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 56% | 3 days ago 71% | 3 days ago 41% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 60% | 5 days ago 51% | 3 days ago 25% |
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TGT and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, TGT has been loosely correlated with DLTR. These tickers have moved in lockstep 33% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if TGT jumps, then DLTR could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To TGT | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TGT | 100% | +3.17% | ||
| DLTR - TGT | 33% Loosely correlated | +6.00% | ||
| DG - TGT | 26% Poorly correlated | +2.60% | ||
| PSMT - TGT | 26% Poorly correlated | +3.26% | ||
| COST - TGT | 25% Poorly correlated | +1.28% | ||
| OLLI - TGT | 24% Poorly correlated | +0.30% | ||
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WMT and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, WMT has been loosely correlated with COST. These tickers have moved in lockstep 66% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if WMT jumps, then COST could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To WMT | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WMT | 100% | +2.15% | ||
| COST - WMT | 66% Loosely correlated | +1.28% | ||
| BJ - WMT | 38% Loosely correlated | -0.18% | ||
| PSMT - WMT | 36% Loosely correlated | +3.26% | ||
| TGT - WMT | 30% Poorly correlated | +3.17% | ||
| TBBB - WMT | 21% Poorly correlated | +2.19% | ||
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