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DLTR or TGT or WMT
Dollar Tree (DLTR) vs Target (TGT) vs Walmart (WMT) Earnings Recap: Post-Report Stock Momentum
Key Takeaways
- Dollar Tree (DLTR) reported Q4 FY25 EPS of $2.56, beating estimates of $2.53; revenue $5.45B slightly below $5.46B expected, with 5% comp sales growth.
- Target (TGT) Q4 FY25 adjusted EPS $2.44 topped $2.16 forecast; revenue $30.45B missed $30.48B, comp sales down 2.5%.
- Walmart (WMT) Q4 FY26 adjusted EPS $0.74 beat $0.73; revenue $190.7B exceeded $190.4B, driven by 24% eCommerce growth.
- All three discount retailers showed resilience in essentials amid consumer caution on discretionary spending.
- DLTR stock surged post-earnings on multi-price strategy gains; TGT rose on EPS beat; WMT guidance tempered reaction.
Earnings Context and Competitive Landscape
Recent earnings from discount giants DLTR, TGT, and WMT highlight shifting consumer priorities toward value amid inflation pressures. These retailers overlap in discount general merchandise, groceries, and household essentials, competing fiercely on price, convenience, and omnichannel execution. DLTR's fixed-price core with multi-price testing targets extreme value seekers, TGT blends style and affordability, while WMT dominates scale with grocery strength. Earnings timing underscores post-holiday performance, revealing comp trends and margin resilience as key battlegrounds.
Dollar Tree Focus
Dollar Tree (DLTR) released Q4 FY25 (ended Jan 31, 2026) results on March 16, 2026, posting net sales of $5.45 billion (up 9% YoY) and adjusted diluted EPS of $2.56 (up 21% YoY), topping consensus EPS of $2.53 while revenue edged below $5.46B. Comp store sales rose 5.0%, fueled by 6.3% average ticket growth despite 1.2% traffic dip. Gross margin expanded 150 bps to 39.1% on optimized assortments and multi-price rollout in 5,300 stores. Operating income hit $695M (up 10.7% adjusted). FY25 comps grew 5.3%, with $1.55B returned to shareholders. FY26 guidance: sales $20.5-20.7B, comps 3-4%, adj. EPS $6.50-6.90.
Target Context
Target (TGT) reported Q4 FY25 (fiscal year ended ~Jan 2026) on March 3, 2026, with adjusted EPS $2.44 (vs. $2.41 YoY, beat $2.16 est.), revenue $30.45B (down 1.5% YoY, miss $30.48B). Comp sales fell 2.5%, stores down 3.9% offset by 1.9% digital growth. Full-year adjusted EPS $7.57 (down from $8.86). FY26 outlook: sales growth ~2%, adj. EPS $7.50-8.50. Performance reflects traffic softness in apparel/home but essentials stability; shares gained on EPS surprise.
Walmart Context
Walmart (WMT) announced Q4 FY26 (ended Jan 31, 2026) on Feb 19, 2026: revenue $190.7B (up 5.6% YoY, beat $190.4B), adjusted EPS $0.74 (up 12.1%, beat $0.73). Global eCommerce +24%, U.S. comps +4.6%, membership fees +15.1%. Gross margin +13 bps; operating income +10.8%. FY27 guidance: sales +3.5-4.5%, adj. EPS $2.75-2.85. Strong digital/advertising offset tariff pressures, supporting market leadership.
Head-to-Head Earnings and Market Comparison
Across earnings quality, WMT leads with scale-driven beats and eCommerce momentum (24% growth), though modest EPS magnitude reflects maturity. DLTR shines in growth signals (21% EPS rise, 5% comps) via multi-price pivot, but smaller base heightens volatility. TGT impressed with 13% EPS surprise amid sales decline, signaling margin discipline. Risk profiles: DLTR highest on transformation execution; TGT exposed to discretionary weakness; WMT lowest via diversification. Investor sentiment favors WMT's stability, DLTR's upside potential post-recap.
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Tickeron AI Verdict
Tickeron AI favors WMT with 65% probability over the next quarter due to superior eCommerce scale, consistent beats, and defensive grocery positioning amid economic uncertainty. DLTR (20% chance) offers higher growth volatility from store optimizations; TGT (15%) lags on comp declines despite EPS strength.
Disclaimer
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Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
DLTR’s FA Score shows that 1 FA rating(s) are green whileTGT’s FA Score has 2 green FA rating(s), and WMT’s FA Score reflects 2 green FA rating(s).
- DLTR’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- TGT’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
- WMT’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
DLTR’s TA Score shows that 5 TA indicator(s) are bullish while TGT’s TA Score has 4 bullish TA indicator(s), and WMT’s TA Score reflects 6 bullish TA indicator(s).
- DLTR’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 3 bearish.
- TGT’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 4 bearish.
- WMT’s TA Score: 6 bullish, 3 bearish.
Price Growth
DLTR (@Discount Stores) experienced а +5.01% price change this week, while TGT (@Discount Stores) price change was +10.43% , and WMT (@Discount Stores) price fluctuated +2.69% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Discount Stores industry was +2.69%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +4.30%, and the average quarterly price growth was +9.29%.
Reported Earning Dates
DLTR is expected to report earnings on May 21, 2026.
TGT is expected to report earnings on May 20, 2026.
WMT is expected to report earnings on May 14, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Discount Stores (+2.69% weekly)Companies in the discount stores industry specialize in offering substantial discounts on a vast array of retail products. Some companies in this industry also operate general merchandise warehouse clubs. Products sold at discount stores are typically similar to those of any department store, but the pricing of the goods is generally much lower (and hence the name “discount”). Think Dollar General Corporation, Dollar Tree, Inc. and Five Below, Inc. Many discount stores target low-income households and/or price-sensitive consumers as their potential market. Discount stores’ profitability could hinge on factors like competitive pricing, sufficient locations, healthy revenue per square foot, and effective advertisement. These store operators could have an edge over other retailers during financial crises or recessions, when many consumers could be looking for less expensive alternatives.
| DLTR | TGT | WMT | |
| Capitalization | 21.2B | 59B | 1.02T |
| EBITDA | 2.36B | 8.35B | 46.5B |
| Gain YTD | -12.812 | 34.531 | 15.054 |
| P/E Ratio | 18.06 | 16.01 | 46.86 |
| Revenue | 19.4B | 105B | 713B |
| Total Cash | 718M | 5.49B | 10.7B |
| Total Debt | 7.06B | 20.3B | 67.1B |
DLTR | TGT | WMT | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 62 | 18 | 25 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 73 Overvalued | 68 Overvalued | 92 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 100 | 100 | 7 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 29 | 38 | 40 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 58 | 12 | 24 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 53 | 26 | 42 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 75 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
TGT's Valuation (68) in the Specialty Stores industry is in the same range as DLTR (73) in the Discount Stores industry, and is in the same range as WMT (92) in the Specialty Stores industry. This means that TGT's stock grew similarly to DLTR’s and similarly to WMT’s over the last 12 months.
WMT's Profit vs Risk Rating (7) in the Specialty Stores industry is significantly better than the same rating for TGT (100) in the Specialty Stores industry, and is significantly better than the same rating for DLTR (100) in the Discount Stores industry. This means that WMT's stock grew significantly faster than TGT’s and significantly faster than DLTR’s over the last 12 months.
DLTR's SMR Rating (29) in the Discount Stores industry is in the same range as TGT (38) in the Specialty Stores industry, and is in the same range as WMT (40) in the Specialty Stores industry. This means that DLTR's stock grew similarly to TGT’s and similarly to WMT’s over the last 12 months.
TGT's Price Growth Rating (12) in the Specialty Stores industry is in the same range as WMT (24) in the Specialty Stores industry, and is somewhat better than the same rating for DLTR (58) in the Discount Stores industry. This means that TGT's stock grew similarly to WMT’s and somewhat faster than DLTR’s over the last 12 months.
TGT's P/E Growth Rating (26) in the Specialty Stores industry is in the same range as WMT (42) in the Specialty Stores industry, and is in the same range as DLTR (53) in the Discount Stores industry. This means that TGT's stock grew similarly to WMT’s and similarly to DLTR’s over the last 12 months.
| DLTR | TGT | WMT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 67% | 1 day ago 57% | N/A |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 65% | 1 day ago 64% | 1 day ago 33% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 68% | 1 day ago 60% | 1 day ago 60% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 65% | 1 day ago 46% | 1 day ago 64% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 69% | 1 day ago 67% | 1 day ago 55% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 66% | 1 day ago 68% | 1 day ago 54% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 68% | 1 day ago 67% | 1 day ago 55% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 12 days ago 66% | 9 days ago 64% | 9 days ago 34% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 64% | 1 day ago 76% | 1 day ago 41% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 61% | 1 day ago 67% | 1 day ago 52% |
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