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EL or HSY or WMT
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Estée Lauder (EL) vs. Hershey (HSY) vs. Walmart (WMT) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- EL has faced significant pressure, declining around 35% YTD amid merger talks with Puig and sector challenges, contrasting sharply with peers.
- HSY shows resilience with approximately 18% YTD gains, supported by strong EPS growth projections of 30% and operational unification.
- WMT leads in scale with over 11% YTD returns and robust revenue growth around 5%, bolstered by omnichannel expansions.
- Defensive consumer names like HSY and WMT outperform luxury-exposed EL in recent market activity.
- Valuation contrasts: WMT trades at a premium P/E (trailing ~45x) due to stability, while EL appears distressed.
- AI tools highlight momentum in staples over discretionary beauty amid volatility.
Introduction
This stock comparison examines EL (Estée Lauder), a prestige beauty leader; HSY (Hershey), a confectionery powerhouse; and WMT (Walmart), the retail giant. These consumer-facing stocks span luxury cosmetics, essential snacks, and everyday retail, offering insights into sector dynamics. Traders seeking momentum plays may eye relative strength, while long-term investors assess stability and growth in a volatile environment marked by tariff concerns and consumer shifts. This analysis draws on recent market data to highlight performance, sentiment, and positioning for informed decision-making in stock comparisons.
EL Overview and Recent Performance
The Estée Lauder Companies Inc. (EL) is a global leader in prestige beauty, with brands like Clinique, La Mer, and Tom Ford driving sales in skincare, makeup, and fragrance. In recent market activity, EL shares have declined sharply, down approximately 35-37% year-to-date and over 38% in the past month, trading around $68. This underperformance stems from mixed Q4 results showing 5.6% revenue growth to $4.23 billion, overshadowed by broader luxury sector weakness and tariff headwinds estimated at $100 million. Talks of a potential merger with Puig Brands, combining fragrances like Rabanne and Carolina Herrera, have introduced uncertainty, contributing to sentiment shifts despite some valuation narratives suggesting undervaluation at 38.7% below fair value estimates.
HSY Overview and Recent Performance
The Hershey Company (HSY) dominates the U.S. confectionery market as the #1 in chocolate and #2 in snacking, with iconic brands like Hershey's, Reese's, and SkinnyPop. Recent weeks have seen HSY shares trade around $214, up about 18% year-to-date and 25-30% over the past year, outperforming benchmarks. Q4 earnings beat estimates with EPS of $1.71 versus $1.40 expected, alongside raised FY2026 guidance for 30-35% EPS growth and 4-5% sales increase, fueled by margin recovery and innovation. The launch of a unified U.S. operating model ('ONE Hershey') integrates sweet, salty, and protein portfolios, enhancing efficiency and boosting positive sentiment in a resilient consumer staples sector.
WMT Overview and Recent Performance
Walmart Inc. (WMT) operates as a people-led, tech-powered omnichannel retailer with over 10,750 stores globally, emphasizing everyday low prices across groceries, general merchandise, and e-commerce. Shares hover near $123-124, reflecting about 11% YTD gains and over 42% one-year returns, supported by steady 4-5% revenue growth to $713 billion TTM and improving margins. Recent developments include new store openings, partnerships for exclusive brands, and expansions in drone delivery and AI-driven retail, alongside appointing a new Chief Legal Officer. These moves reinforce market positioning amid e-commerce competition, with EPS (TTM) at $2.73 driving defensive appeal.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
EL, HSY, and WMT operate in consumer sectors but diverge in models: EL's prestige beauty relies on discretionary spending and travel retail, vulnerable to economic slowdowns; HSY's staples focus on indulgent essentials with pricing power; WMT blends necessities via massive scale and tech integration. Growth drivers contrast—EL eyes mergers amid 5% revenue upticks but tariff risks; HSY projects 30% EPS growth via efficiency; WMT sustains 5% sales via omnichannel. Recent momentum favors HSY and WMT (18% and 11% YTD) over EL's -35%. Risks include competition for all, but EL faces execution in turnaround. Valuations show WMT at ~45x P/E (market cap ~$985B), HSY similarly premium, versus EL's distressed levels (~148x, $36B cap). Sentiment tilts toward staples' stability.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Tickeron’s AI currently favors WMT for its trend consistency, scale-driven catalysts like AI retail and e-commerce growth, and superior relative positioning in defensive retail. With stable momentum and lower volatility versus EL's downturn, WMT shows higher probability of outperformance in uncertain conditions, though HSY remains a close contender for staples resilience.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
EL’s FA Score shows that 0 FA rating(s) are green whileHSY’s FA Score has 1 green FA rating(s), and WMT’s FA Score reflects 2 green FA rating(s).
- EL’s FA Score: 0 green, 5 red.
- HSY’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- WMT’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
EL’s TA Score shows that 5 TA indicator(s) are bullish while HSY’s TA Score has 4 bullish TA indicator(s), and WMT’s TA Score reflects 5 bullish TA indicator(s).
- EL’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 4 bearish.
- HSY’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 6 bearish.
- WMT’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 4 bearish.
Price Growth
EL (@Household/Personal Care) experienced а +5.14% price change this week, while HSY (@Food: Specialty/Candy) price change was -1.88% , and WMT (@Discount Stores) price fluctuated +0.78% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Household/Personal Care industry was +2.76%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -0.20%, and the average quarterly price growth was -8.38%.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Food: Specialty/Candy industry was +1.04%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -0.63%, and the average quarterly price growth was +4.29%.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Discount Stores industry was -0.78%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -2.41%, and the average quarterly price growth was +9.75%.
Reported Earning Dates
EL is expected to report earnings on May 01, 2026.
HSY is expected to report earnings on Apr 30, 2026.
WMT is expected to report earnings on May 14, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Household/Personal Care (+2.76% weekly)Household/Personal Care companies sell products for home cleaning and/or personal hygiene and grooming purposes. Products of this industry include detergents, shampoos, soaps, cosmetics, fabric conditioners and infant care fragrances. Procter & Gamble, Unilever, Estee Lauder and Colgate-Palmolive are some of the biggest names in the business. A lot of the products become a necessary part of people’s daily routine, and therefore the industry is relatively less vulnerable to macroeconomic downturns. At the same time, product quality, consumer safety, and ease of use are extremely critical factors for a company to survive competition and earn recognition in this industry.
@Food: Specialty/Candy (+1.04% weekly)A specialty/candy manufacturer specializes in one or more of the following: chocolate, candies, pasta, condiments, seasonings, among other items. Hershey Company, McCormick & Company and J.M. Smucker Company are some of the major firms in this segment. Demand for this industry’s products comes from both institutions/restaurants as well as households.
@Discount Stores (-0.78% weekly)Companies in the discount stores industry specialize in offering substantial discounts on a vast array of retail products. Some companies in this industry also operate general merchandise warehouse clubs. Products sold at discount stores are typically similar to those of any department store, but the pricing of the goods is generally much lower (and hence the name “discount”). Think Dollar General Corporation, Dollar Tree, Inc. and Five Below, Inc. Many discount stores target low-income households and/or price-sensitive consumers as their potential market. Discount stores’ profitability could hinge on factors like competitive pricing, sufficient locations, healthy revenue per square foot, and effective advertisement. These store operators could have an edge over other retailers during financial crises or recessions, when many consumers could be looking for less expensive alternatives.
| EL | HSY | WMT | |
| Capitalization | 26.3B | 41B | 1.01T |
| EBITDA | 1.39B | 1.94B | 46.5B |
| Gain YTD | -30.388 | 11.901 | 14.020 |
| P/E Ratio | 147.80 | 46.62 | 46.44 |
| Revenue | 14.7B | 11.7B | 713B |
| Total Cash | 3.08B | 926M | N/A |
| Total Debt | 9.39B | 5.74B | 68.4B |
EL | HSY | WMT | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 57 | 5 | 20 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 52 Fair valued | 36 Fair valued | 91 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 100 | 65 | 7 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 90 | 45 | 99 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 64 | 49 | 21 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 36 | 7 | 38 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | n/a | 50 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
HSY's Valuation (36) in the Food Specialty Or Candy industry is in the same range as EL (52) in the Household Or Personal Care industry, and is somewhat better than the same rating for WMT (91) in the Specialty Stores industry. This means that HSY's stock grew similarly to EL’s and somewhat faster than WMT’s over the last 12 months.
WMT's Profit vs Risk Rating (7) in the Specialty Stores industry is somewhat better than the same rating for HSY (65) in the Food Specialty Or Candy industry, and is significantly better than the same rating for EL (100) in the Household Or Personal Care industry. This means that WMT's stock grew somewhat faster than HSY’s and significantly faster than EL’s over the last 12 months.
HSY's SMR Rating (45) in the Food Specialty Or Candy industry is somewhat better than the same rating for EL (90) in the Household Or Personal Care industry, and is somewhat better than the same rating for WMT (99) in the Specialty Stores industry. This means that HSY's stock grew somewhat faster than EL’s and somewhat faster than WMT’s over the last 12 months.
WMT's Price Growth Rating (21) in the Specialty Stores industry is in the same range as HSY (49) in the Food Specialty Or Candy industry, and is somewhat better than the same rating for EL (64) in the Household Or Personal Care industry. This means that WMT's stock grew similarly to HSY’s and somewhat faster than EL’s over the last 12 months.
HSY's P/E Growth Rating (7) in the Food Specialty Or Candy industry is in the same range as EL (36) in the Household Or Personal Care industry, and is in the same range as WMT (38) in the Specialty Stores industry. This means that HSY's stock grew similarly to EL’s and similarly to WMT’s over the last 12 months.
| EL | HSY | WMT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 62% | 1 day ago 63% | N/A |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 67% | 1 day ago 69% | 1 day ago 32% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 62% | 3 days ago 45% | 1 day ago 65% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 54% | 6 days ago 48% | 1 day ago 77% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 63% | 1 day ago 55% | 1 day ago 55% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 75% | 1 day ago 52% | 1 day ago 53% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 63% | 3 days ago 64% | 3 days ago 55% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 10 days ago 74% | 11 days ago 54% | 23 days ago 33% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 72% | 1 day ago 65% | 1 day ago 37% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 72% | 1 day ago 57% | 1 day ago 30% |
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WMT and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, WMT has been loosely correlated with COST. These tickers have moved in lockstep 66% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if WMT jumps, then COST could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To WMT | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WMT | 100% | -1.83% | ||
| COST - WMT | 66% Loosely correlated | -3.25% | ||
| BJ - WMT | 39% Loosely correlated | -1.01% | ||
| PSMT - WMT | 38% Loosely correlated | -2.62% | ||
| TGT - WMT | 30% Poorly correlated | -1.73% | ||
| TBBB - WMT | 28% Poorly correlated | +0.21% | ||
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