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EL or KDP or PM
Which Stock Would AI Choose? The Estée Lauder Companies (EL) vs. Keurig Dr Pepper (KDP) vs. Philip Morris International (PM) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- EL has faced sharp declines in recent market activity, dropping over 30% in the past month amid merger talks with Puig and ongoing turnaround efforts in prestige beauty.
- KDP shows relative stability with modest YTD gains around 5-6%, supported by strong Q4 results and double-digit EPS growth outlook, though pressured by labor issues and coffee headwinds.
- PM leads in performance with YTD returns near 2-5% and strong long-term momentum from smoke-free products, which now account for over 40% of revenues.
- Valuation metrics highlight PM's higher P/E around 22x with a robust 3.6% dividend yield, compared to KDP's 17x P/E and 3.5% yield, while EL trades at elevated multiples amid recovery challenges.
- Sector contrasts: Consumer staples like KDP and PM offer defensive stability, while EL's discretionary beauty exposure amplifies volatility.
- Recent momentum favors PM for trend consistency and catalysts in reduced-risk products.
Introduction
This stock comparison examines EL, KDP, and PM—representing prestige beauty, non-alcoholic beverages, and tobacco with smoke-free transitions—in today's market. These consumer-facing stocks appeal to traders seeking relative performance insights amid economic shifts, sector rotations, and company-specific catalysts. Investors tracking defensive staples versus discretionary plays, or evaluating dividend yields and growth trajectories, will find value in their contrasts across momentum, valuation, and risk. Recent developments highlight varying resilience, aiding decisions on portfolio positioning and sector exposure.
EL Overview and Recent Performance
The Estée Lauder Companies (EL) is a global leader in prestige beauty, manufacturing and marketing skincare, makeup, fragrance, and hair care under brands like Estée Lauder, Clinique, La Mer, and Jo Malone. Operating in approximately 150 countries, it emphasizes innovation and luxury positioning through department stores, digital channels, and specialty retailers.
Recent market activity has pressured EL, with shares declining sharply—down over 30% in the past month from around $115 to near $79—following reports of merger discussions with Puig that raised concerns over operational challenges and valuation. Earlier quarterly results showed sales growth and margin improvements from restructuring, but sentiment shifted amid broader consumer sector dynamics and China recovery hurdles. Trading volume spiked on news, reflecting heightened volatility in discretionary beauty amid economic sensitivity.
KDP Overview and Recent Performance
Keurig Dr Pepper (KDP) is a leading North American beverage company with over 125 brands, spanning soft drinks (Dr Pepper, 7UP), coffee systems (Keurig), teas (Snapple), and waters. It leverages powerful distribution to supermarkets, e-commerce, and convenience outlets, focusing on ready-to-drink and single-serve formats.
In recent weeks, KDP has displayed stability, with shares around $26-27 after YTD gains of about 5-6%. Q4 2025 results exceeded expectations, delivering 9.9% net sales growth to $16.6 billion annually and EPS of $2.05, fueled by U.S. refreshment beverages. Guidance targets double-digit EPS growth in 2026, though offset by labor disputes like Teamsters' strike authorization and coffee cost pressures. Overall, defensive positioning supports relative resilience.
PM Overview and Recent Performance
Philip Morris International (PM) is a leading tobacco firm transitioning to smoke-free products like IQOS heat-not-burn and ZYN pouches, alongside cigarettes (Marlboro). With operations in over 180 markets and 83,000 employees, it invests heavily—over $16 billion since 2008—in reduced-risk alternatives now comprising 42% of revenues.
PM has maintained positive momentum, with shares near $163-164 after YTD returns of 2-5% and stronger multi-year gains. Recent quarters showed robust growth, with smoke-free shipments expanding and total revenues topping $40 billion. Despite some monthly pullbacks, analyst upgrades and high profitability (29% net margins) bolster sentiment, underscoring successful diversification from combustibles.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
EL, KDP, and PM span consumer defensive and discretionary realms. Business models differ: EL's prestige beauty relies on luxury demand and Asia recovery, contrasting KDP's staple beverages with broad distribution and PM's nicotine transition amid regulatory scrutiny.
Growth drivers include PM's smoke-free surge (42% revenues) versus KDP's refreshment momentum and EL's restructuring. Recent momentum favors PM and KDP for stability, with EL volatile. Risks: EL faces economic sensitivity; KDP, costs/labor; PM, regulations. Valuations show KDP cheapest at 17x P/E, PM 22x with superior yields (~3.5-3.6%), highlighting staples' appeal over beauty's sensitivity.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Tickeron’s AI currently favors PM based on superior trend consistency, smoke-free catalysts driving 42% of revenues, and relative stability versus peers. With probabilistic edges in momentum, high margins, and dividend reliability, it shows stronger positioning amid market shifts, though KDP offers value appeal.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full Disclaimers and Limitations.
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
EL’s FA Score shows that 0 FA rating(s) are green whileKDP’s FA Score has 1 green FA rating(s), and PM’s FA Score reflects 3 green FA rating(s).
- EL’s FA Score: 0 green, 5 red.
- KDP’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- PM’s FA Score: 3 green, 2 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
EL’s TA Score shows that 4 TA indicator(s) are bullish while KDP’s TA Score has 4 bullish TA indicator(s), and PM’s TA Score reflects 4 bullish TA indicator(s).
- EL’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 5 bearish.
- KDP’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 4 bearish.
- PM’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 4 bearish.
Price Growth
EL (@Household/Personal Care) experienced а +4.43% price change this week, while KDP (@Beverages: Non-Alcoholic) price change was +1.77% , and PM (@Tobacco) price fluctuated -3.20% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Household/Personal Care industry was +1.15%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +5.23%, and the average quarterly price growth was -9.00%.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Beverages: Non-Alcoholic industry was -1.29%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +0.30%, and the average quarterly price growth was +83822.82%.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Tobacco industry was -1.34%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +1.03%, and the average quarterly price growth was -8.81%.
Reported Earning Dates
EL is expected to report earnings on May 01, 2026.
KDP is expected to report earnings on Apr 23, 2026.
PM is expected to report earnings on Apr 22, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Household/Personal Care (+1.15% weekly)Household/Personal Care companies sell products for home cleaning and/or personal hygiene and grooming purposes. Products of this industry include detergents, shampoos, soaps, cosmetics, fabric conditioners and infant care fragrances. Procter & Gamble, Unilever, Estee Lauder and Colgate-Palmolive are some of the biggest names in the business. A lot of the products become a necessary part of people’s daily routine, and therefore the industry is relatively less vulnerable to macroeconomic downturns. At the same time, product quality, consumer safety, and ease of use are extremely critical factors for a company to survive competition and earn recognition in this industry.
@Beverages: Non-Alcoholic (-1.29% weekly)Non-alcoholic drinks include traces of alcohol or low alcohol content or without alcohol or alcohol removed. Functional Beverages, Carbonated Soft Drinks (CSDs), Sports Drinks, Fruit Beverages, and Bottled Water are some common types of non-alcoholic beverages. The largest segment in this market is soft drinks (think Pepsi and Coke). Many established companies in this space have also been stepping up production of low to zero-calorie varieties in recent years, to cater to a rising number of health-conscious consumers. Coca-Cola Company, Pepsico Inc, Keurig Dr Pepper Inc. and Monster Beverage Corporation are some major non-alcoholic beverage makers.
@Tobacco (-1.34% weekly)The industry is engaged in the growth, preparation for sale, advertisement, and distribution of tobacco and tobacco-related products like cigarettes. In 2017, tobacco companies spent an estimated $9.36 billion marketing cigarettes and smokeless tobacco in the U.S. – an amount that translates to more than $25 million each day (according to a CDC report). Philip Morris International Inc., Altria Group Inc., and British American Tobacco plc are some major cigar makers. In recent times, vaping or the use of e-cigarette (does not burn tobacco) is gaining momentum – several established cigarette makers are trying to expand their footprint in this new market.
| EL | KDP | PM | |
| Capitalization | 28.2B | 36B | 246B |
| EBITDA | 1.39B | 4.19B | 17.5B |
| Gain YTD | -25.426 | -3.765 | -0.900 |
| P/E Ratio | 147.80 | 17.32 | 21.69 |
| Revenue | 14.7B | 16.6B | 40.6B |
| Total Cash | 3.08B | N/A | N/A |
| Total Debt | 9.39B | 17.6B | 48.8B |
EL | KDP | PM | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 50 | 50 | 50 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 54 Fair valued | 25 Undervalued | 23 Undervalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 100 | 100 | 19 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 91 | 75 | 3 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 64 | 61 | 60 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 36 | 95 | 81 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 85 | 50 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
PM's Valuation (23) in the Tobacco industry is in the same range as KDP (25) in the Beverages Non Alcoholic industry, and is in the same range as EL (54) in the Household Or Personal Care industry. This means that PM's stock grew similarly to KDP’s and similarly to EL’s over the last 12 months.
PM's Profit vs Risk Rating (19) in the Tobacco industry is significantly better than the same rating for KDP (100) in the Beverages Non Alcoholic industry, and is significantly better than the same rating for EL (100) in the Household Or Personal Care industry. This means that PM's stock grew significantly faster than KDP’s and significantly faster than EL’s over the last 12 months.
PM's SMR Rating (3) in the Tobacco industry is significantly better than the same rating for KDP (75) in the Beverages Non Alcoholic industry, and is significantly better than the same rating for EL (91) in the Household Or Personal Care industry. This means that PM's stock grew significantly faster than KDP’s and significantly faster than EL’s over the last 12 months.
PM's Price Growth Rating (60) in the Tobacco industry is in the same range as KDP (61) in the Beverages Non Alcoholic industry, and is in the same range as EL (64) in the Household Or Personal Care industry. This means that PM's stock grew similarly to KDP’s and similarly to EL’s over the last 12 months.
EL's P/E Growth Rating (36) in the Household Or Personal Care industry is somewhat better than the same rating for PM (81) in the Tobacco industry, and is somewhat better than the same rating for KDP (95) in the Beverages Non Alcoholic industry. This means that EL's stock grew somewhat faster than PM’s and somewhat faster than KDP’s over the last 12 months.
| EL | KDP | PM | |
|---|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 67% | 4 days ago 61% | 4 days ago 68% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 74% | 4 days ago 43% | 4 days ago 55% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 65% | 4 days ago 39% | 4 days ago 48% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 59% | 4 days ago 55% | 4 days ago 55% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 64% | 4 days ago 47% | 4 days ago 50% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 75% | 4 days ago 43% | 4 days ago 51% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 6 days ago 63% | 4 days ago 49% | 12 days ago 57% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 19 days ago 74% | 6 days ago 46% | 5 days ago 48% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 61% | N/A | N/A |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 68% | 4 days ago 35% | 4 days ago 34% |
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