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EL or KR or PEP
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Estée Lauder (EL) vs. Kroger (KR) vs. PepsiCo (PEP) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- PEP leads YTD performance at around +12%, showcasing resilience in consumer staples amid market volatility.
- KR has surged nearly +19% YTD, driven by strong Q4 earnings and e-commerce growth, outperforming peers recently.
- EL lags with -11% YTD decline, pressured by weak forecasts and regional demand softness in recent market activity.
- PEP offers a stable 3.4% dividend yield and diversified snacks/beverages model, contrasting EL's prestige beauty volatility.
- KR benefits from grocery essentials demand, while EL faces luxury spending risks.
- Relative performance highlights KR and PEP as defensive plays in the current environment.
Introduction
This stock comparison examines EL (Estée Lauder), KR (Kroger), and PEP (PepsiCo), spanning consumer defensive sectors from prestige beauty to grocery retail and beverages/snacks. These stocks offer insights into luxury versus essential goods performance amid shifting consumer sentiment and economic pressures. Traders seeking momentum may eye recent outperformers, while long-term investors value dividend stability and sector resilience. This analysis highlights relative performance, growth drivers, and market positioning to inform portfolio decisions in today's volatile environment.
EL Overview and Recent Performance
The Estée Lauder Companies Inc. (EL) is a global leader in prestige beauty, manufacturing and marketing skincare, makeup, fragrance, and hair care products across over 20 brands like Clinique and La Mer, sold in 150+ countries through department stores, specialty retailers, and e-commerce. In recent market activity, EL shares have faced headwinds, declining around 11% YTD and 6-10% over recent weeks, underperforming broader indices. Key influences include sluggish demand in Americas and Asia travel retail, post-Q2 earnings weakness despite raised annual targets, and a sharp drop after dividend ex-date. Positive notes include skincare growth, acquisition of Forest Essentials for Indian expansion, and legal action against counterfeit sales, but sentiment remains cautious amid profitability concerns like negative net margins.
KR Overview and Recent Performance
The Kroger Co. (KR) operates one of the largest U.S. supermarket chains, with nearly 2,800 stores under various banners, offering groceries, pharmacy services, fuel centers, and private-label products, emphasizing omnichannel retail including e-commerce and data-driven personalization. Recent performance has been robust, with shares up about 19% YTD and 10-15% over the past month, reflecting strong momentum. Q4 earnings beat estimates at $1.28 adjusted EPS, though sales slightly missed; identical sales grew, boosted by 20% e-commerce surge and pharmacy strength. Influences include new CEO focus on affordable fresh food, AI investments via Chief Data Officer appointment, and store optimizations, supporting positive outlook despite cautious full-year guidance.
PEP Overview and Recent Performance
PepsiCo Inc. (PEP) is a multinational food and beverage giant, producing snacks like Frito-Lay and drinks including Pepsi, Gatorade, and Tropicana, operating in 200+ countries with seven segments for diversified revenue. Shares have advanced roughly 12% YTD, holding steady around $159 amid minor recent dips, outperforming in consumer staples. Performance reflects resilience despite volume softness, supported by product innovations in health-oriented offerings, a 3.4-3.5% dividend yield, and $10B buyback. Challenges include declining sales volumes and competition, but forward P/E around 18-19x signals relative value, with analysts noting strong brands amid market pressures.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
EL, KR, and PEP contrast sharply in business models: EL's prestige beauty relies on luxury spending via global retail channels, exposing it to cyclical downturns, unlike KR's essential grocery model with private labels and pharmacies for steady demand. PEP balances snacks/beverages for defensive growth. Growth drivers differ—EL via skincare/acquisitions, KR e-commerce/AI, PEP innovations/buybacks. Recent momentum favors KR (+19% YTD) over PEP (+12%) and EL (-11%). Risks include EL's regional softness, KR's sales misses, PEP's volume declines. Sector exposure: beauty volatile vs. staples stable. Valuations show PEP at 26x P/E with yield, KR elevated post-rally, EL pressured. Sentiment tilts toward essentials.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Tickeron’s AI currently favors KR for its consistent trend strength, YTD outperformance, and catalysts like earnings beats and e-commerce momentum, positioning it well relative to peers amid defensive rotations. PEP offers stability, but EL's volatility reduces appeal. Probabilistic edge leans to KR based on observable momentum and lower risk in essentials.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full Disclaimers and Limitations.
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
EL’s FA Score shows that 0 FA rating(s) are green whileKR’s FA Score has 2 green FA rating(s), and PEP’s FA Score reflects 3 green FA rating(s).
- EL’s FA Score: 0 green, 5 red.
- KR’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
- PEP’s FA Score: 3 green, 2 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
EL’s TA Score shows that 4 TA indicator(s) are bullish while KR’s TA Score has 4 bullish TA indicator(s), and PEP’s TA Score reflects 5 bullish TA indicator(s).
- EL’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 5 bearish.
- KR’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 6 bearish.
- PEP’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 5 bearish.
Price Growth
EL (@Household/Personal Care) experienced а +4.86% price change this week, while KR (@Food Retail) price change was +0.29% , and PEP (@Beverages: Non-Alcoholic) price fluctuated +0.39% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Household/Personal Care industry was +0.96%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +3.95%, and the average quarterly price growth was -8.44%.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Food Retail industry was +2.31%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +2.04%, and the average quarterly price growth was +3.08%.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Beverages: Non-Alcoholic industry was -0.77%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -1.88%, and the average quarterly price growth was +2073.90%.
Reported Earning Dates
EL is expected to report earnings on May 01, 2026.
KR is expected to report earnings on Jun 11, 2026.
PEP is expected to report earnings on Jul 14, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Household/Personal Care (+0.96% weekly)Household/Personal Care companies sell products for home cleaning and/or personal hygiene and grooming purposes. Products of this industry include detergents, shampoos, soaps, cosmetics, fabric conditioners and infant care fragrances. Procter & Gamble, Unilever, Estee Lauder and Colgate-Palmolive are some of the biggest names in the business. A lot of the products become a necessary part of people’s daily routine, and therefore the industry is relatively less vulnerable to macroeconomic downturns. At the same time, product quality, consumer safety, and ease of use are extremely critical factors for a company to survive competition and earn recognition in this industry.
@Food Retail (+2.31% weekly)The food retail industry includes companies that sell food, beverage and household products. Items sold include grocery, gourmet food, fresh produce, and frozen food. Kroger Co., George Weston Ltd., Grocery Outlet Holding Corp., and Sprouts Farmers Markets, Inc. are examples of major food retailers. While e-commerce companies like Amazon have increasingly been ramping-up offerings in the food retail space, several traditional players have also been expanding their online presence to stand their ground against rising competition.
@Beverages: Non-Alcoholic (-0.77% weekly)Non-alcoholic drinks include traces of alcohol or low alcohol content or without alcohol or alcohol removed. Functional Beverages, Carbonated Soft Drinks (CSDs), Sports Drinks, Fruit Beverages, and Bottled Water are some common types of non-alcoholic beverages. The largest segment in this market is soft drinks (think Pepsi and Coke). Many established companies in this space have also been stepping up production of low to zero-calorie varieties in recent years, to cater to a rising number of health-conscious consumers. Coca-Cola Company, Pepsico Inc, Keurig Dr Pepper Inc. and Monster Beverage Corporation are some major non-alcoholic beverage makers.
| EL | KR | PEP | |
| Capitalization | 27.6B | 41.8B | 216B |
| EBITDA | 1.39B | 5.76B | 15.5B |
| Gain YTD | -27.006 | 9.686 | 10.840 |
| P/E Ratio | 147.80 | 44.28 | 24.75 |
| Revenue | 14.7B | 148B | 93.9B |
| Total Cash | 3.08B | 4.58B | 9.53B |
| Total Debt | 9.39B | 24.7B | 49.9B |
EL | KR | PEP | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 5 | 54 | 55 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 54 Fair valued | 55 Fair valued | 26 Undervalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 100 | 24 | 59 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 91 | 56 | 21 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 64 | 59 | 32 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 36 | 10 | 42 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 85 | 50 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
PEP's Valuation (26) in the Beverages Non Alcoholic industry is in the same range as EL (54) in the Household Or Personal Care industry, and is in the same range as KR (55) in the Food Retail industry. This means that PEP's stock grew similarly to EL’s and similarly to KR’s over the last 12 months.
KR's Profit vs Risk Rating (24) in the Food Retail industry is somewhat better than the same rating for PEP (59) in the Beverages Non Alcoholic industry, and is significantly better than the same rating for EL (100) in the Household Or Personal Care industry. This means that KR's stock grew somewhat faster than PEP’s and significantly faster than EL’s over the last 12 months.
PEP's SMR Rating (21) in the Beverages Non Alcoholic industry is somewhat better than the same rating for KR (56) in the Food Retail industry, and is significantly better than the same rating for EL (91) in the Household Or Personal Care industry. This means that PEP's stock grew somewhat faster than KR’s and significantly faster than EL’s over the last 12 months.
PEP's Price Growth Rating (32) in the Beverages Non Alcoholic industry is in the same range as KR (59) in the Food Retail industry, and is in the same range as EL (64) in the Household Or Personal Care industry. This means that PEP's stock grew similarly to KR’s and similarly to EL’s over the last 12 months.
KR's P/E Growth Rating (10) in the Food Retail industry is in the same range as EL (36) in the Household Or Personal Care industry, and is in the same range as PEP (42) in the Beverages Non Alcoholic industry. This means that KR's stock grew similarly to EL’s and similarly to PEP’s over the last 12 months.
| EL | KR | PEP | |
|---|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 67% | 3 days ago 57% | 3 days ago 54% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 74% | 3 days ago 66% | 3 days ago 39% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 65% | 3 days ago 49% | 3 days ago 50% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 59% | 3 days ago 54% | 3 days ago 43% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 64% | 3 days ago 62% | 3 days ago 42% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 75% | 3 days ago 53% | 3 days ago 44% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 5 days ago 63% | 3 days ago 57% | 11 days ago 39% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 18 days ago 74% | 5 days ago 46% | 5 days ago 44% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 61% | 3 days ago 57% | 3 days ago 52% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 68% | 3 days ago 44% | 3 days ago 35% |
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| 1 Day | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| ETFs / NAME | Price $ | Chg $ | Chg % |
| RSPN | 61.15 | 1.14 | +1.90% |
| Invesco S&P 500® Equal Wt Indls ETF | |||
| MRCP | 33.42 | 0.22 | +0.66% |
| PGIM S&P 500 Buffer 12 ETF - Mar | |||
| IVVM | 35.86 | 0.21 | +0.59% |
| iShares Large Cap Moderate Qt Ldrd ETF | |||
| VCSH | 79.52 | 0.20 | +0.25% |
| Vanguard Short-Term Corporate Bond ETF | |||
| FPWR | 37.27 | -0.23 | -0.62% |
| First Trust EIP Power Solutions ETF | |||
EL and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, EL has been loosely correlated with ELF. These tickers have moved in lockstep 44% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if EL jumps, then ELF could also see price increases.