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EL or MDLZ or MO
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Estée Lauder (EL) vs. Mondelez (MDLZ) vs. Altria (MO) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- EL faces recent stock declines amid sluggish Americas demand and profitability challenges, despite growth in skincare and strategic acquisitions like Forest Essentials.
- MDLZ shows mixed performance with cautious 2026 growth projections due to rising input costs and volume pressures, though Q4 results beat estimates.
- MO leads in relative performance with YTD gains of 15.35% and a high 6.38% dividend yield, supported by strong oral nicotine growth despite declining cigarette volumes.
- Across consumer defensive peers, MO outperforms on momentum and stability, while EL lags on recent volatility and MDLZ holds steady amid sector headwinds.
- Valuation metrics highlight MO's attractive P/E relative to peers, balancing income appeal with transition to smoke-free products.
- Market sentiment favors defensive plays like MO in uncertain conditions, contrasting cyclical pressures on EL and cost sensitivities for MDLZ.
Introduction
This stock comparison examines EL, MDLZ, and MO, representing diverse consumer defensive segments: prestige beauty, packaged snacks, and tobacco. Investors seeking relative performance insights in a volatile market, particularly those focused on dividend stability, growth transitions, and sector resilience, will find value here. Recent market activity underscores contrasts in momentum, with tobacco maintaining strength amid beauty and snack challenges from demand shifts and costs. This analysis draws on verifiable data from Yahoo Finance, Reuters, and MarketWatch to highlight positioning for traders monitoring consumer staples stock comparison.
EL Overview and Recent Performance
The Estée Lauder Companies Inc. (EL) is a global leader in prestige beauty, manufacturing and marketing skincare, makeup, fragrance, and hair care products across over 150 countries. Iconic brands include Estée Lauder, Clinique, La Mer, and Tom Ford Beauty. In recent market activity, EL shares have faced downward pressure, trading around $92.72 after a 3.29% drop, with YTD declines near 11% and three-month losses of about 9.79%. Sentiment has been influenced by sluggish demand in the Americas, weak forecasts post-Q2 earnings despite revenue meeting expectations at $4.2 billion and EPS beating at $0.89, and legal actions like suing Walmart over counterfeits. Profitability shows mixed signals with gross margins at 74.34% but negative net margins at -1.21%. Strategic moves, such as full acquisition of Indian brand Forest Essentials, aim to bolster emerging market growth amid ongoing turnaround efforts.
MDLZ Overview and Recent Performance
Mondelez International, Inc. (MDLZ) is a leading global snacking powerhouse, producing biscuits, chocolate, gum, and candy under brands like Oreo, Cadbury, and Trident, operating in over 150 countries with $36 billion in annual revenues. Recent weeks have seen MDLZ shares around $58.40, up 0.36% daily but down 3.84% monthly and 14.31% yearly, with YTD gains of 8.49%. Performance reflects cautious 2026 outlooks due to rising input costs, declining volumes from price hikes, and consumer shifts, despite Q4 revenue beats. Gross margins dipped to 28.38% in Q4 2025, pressuring profitability amid acquisition explorations in a high-valuation environment. Sentiment remains neutral as the company navigates macroeconomic uncertainty while maintaining organic sales momentum in emerging markets.
MO Overview and Recent Performance
Altria Group, Inc. (MO) is a major U.S. tobacco holding company, producing cigarettes via Philip Morris USA (Marlboro), smokeless products (Copenhagen, Skoal), cigars (Black & Mild), oral nicotine pouches (on!), and e-vapor (NJOY). Recent market activity positions MO strongly at $66.51, down 0.70% daily but with robust YTD returns of 15.35%, 25.03% one-year, and a 6.38% dividend yield. Despite declining cigarette shipments (down ~10% in 2025), growth in oral nicotine and pricing power support EPS estimates of $5.57 for 2026 (up 2.8%). Barclays raised its price target, reflecting optimism in smoke-free transitions. Dividend sustainability draws scrutiny amid volumes, but stability appeals to income investors in consumer defensive relative performance.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
EL, MDLZ, and MO span consumer defensive models: cyclical prestige beauty reliant on discretionary spending, stable snacking exposed to input costs, and defensive tobacco with regulatory risks but high yields. Growth drivers differ—EL eyes skincare/emerging markets, MDLZ organic sales in biscuits/chocolate, MO smoke-free shifts. Recent momentum favors MO (15%+ YTD) over MDLZ (8%) and lagging EL (-11%). Risks include demand weakness for EL, volumes/costs for MDLZ, and declines/regulation for MO. Valuation sensitivity shows MO's P/E at 16.2x below peers, versus higher multiples for others; sentiment tilts to income stability amid broader market positioning.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Tickeron’s AI would currently favor MO based on superior trend consistency, YTD outperformance, high dividend yield, and relative stability in consumer defensives. Observable catalysts like oral nicotine growth and pricing power outweigh cigarette declines, positioning it probabilistically stronger versus EL's volatility and MDLZ's cost pressures in recent activity.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full Disclaimers and Limitations.
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
EL’s FA Score shows that 0 FA rating(s) are green whileMDLZ’s FA Score has 2 green FA rating(s), and MO’s FA Score reflects 5 green FA rating(s).
- EL’s FA Score: 0 green, 5 red.
- MDLZ’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
- MO’s FA Score: 5 green, 0 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
EL’s TA Score shows that 5 TA indicator(s) are bullish while MDLZ’s TA Score has 6 bullish TA indicator(s), and MO’s TA Score reflects 6 bullish TA indicator(s).
- EL’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 4 bearish.
- MDLZ’s TA Score: 6 bullish, 4 bearish.
- MO’s TA Score: 6 bullish, 3 bearish.
Price Growth
EL (@Household/Personal Care) experienced а +5.14% price change this week, while MDLZ (@Food: Specialty/Candy) price change was +2.54% , and MO (@Tobacco) price fluctuated +2.46% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Household/Personal Care industry was +2.76%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -0.20%, and the average quarterly price growth was -8.38%.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Food: Specialty/Candy industry was +1.04%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -0.63%, and the average quarterly price growth was +4.29%.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Tobacco industry was +0.39%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +1.02%, and the average quarterly price growth was -8.00%.
Reported Earning Dates
EL is expected to report earnings on May 01, 2026.
MDLZ is expected to report earnings on Apr 28, 2026.
MO is expected to report earnings on Apr 30, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Household/Personal Care (+2.76% weekly)Household/Personal Care companies sell products for home cleaning and/or personal hygiene and grooming purposes. Products of this industry include detergents, shampoos, soaps, cosmetics, fabric conditioners and infant care fragrances. Procter & Gamble, Unilever, Estee Lauder and Colgate-Palmolive are some of the biggest names in the business. A lot of the products become a necessary part of people’s daily routine, and therefore the industry is relatively less vulnerable to macroeconomic downturns. At the same time, product quality, consumer safety, and ease of use are extremely critical factors for a company to survive competition and earn recognition in this industry.
@Food: Specialty/Candy (+1.04% weekly)A specialty/candy manufacturer specializes in one or more of the following: chocolate, candies, pasta, condiments, seasonings, among other items. Hershey Company, McCormick & Company and J.M. Smucker Company are some of the major firms in this segment. Demand for this industry’s products comes from both institutions/restaurants as well as households.
@Tobacco (+0.39% weekly)The industry is engaged in the growth, preparation for sale, advertisement, and distribution of tobacco and tobacco-related products like cigarettes. In 2017, tobacco companies spent an estimated $9.36 billion marketing cigarettes and smokeless tobacco in the U.S. – an amount that translates to more than $25 million each day (according to a CDC report). Philip Morris International Inc., Altria Group Inc., and British American Tobacco plc are some major cigar makers. In recent times, vaping or the use of e-cigarette (does not burn tobacco) is gaining momentum – several established cigarette makers are trying to expand their footprint in this new market.
| EL | MDLZ | MO | |
| Capitalization | 26.3B | 75.7B | 113B |
| EBITDA | 1.39B | 4.97B | 10.8B |
| Gain YTD | -30.388 | 10.553 | 18.816 |
| P/E Ratio | 147.80 | 31.22 | 16.35 |
| Revenue | 14.7B | 38.5B | 20.1B |
| Total Cash | 3.08B | N/A | N/A |
| Total Debt | 9.39B | 21.8B | 25.7B |
EL | MDLZ | MO | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 57 | 19 | 5 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 52 Fair valued | 27 Undervalued | 10 Undervalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 100 | 72 | 10 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 90 | 71 | 9 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 64 | 53 | 31 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 36 | 20 | 13 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | n/a | 85 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
MO's Valuation (10) in the Tobacco industry is in the same range as MDLZ (27) in the Food Major Diversified industry, and is somewhat better than the same rating for EL (52) in the Household Or Personal Care industry. This means that MO's stock grew similarly to MDLZ’s and somewhat faster than EL’s over the last 12 months.
MO's Profit vs Risk Rating (10) in the Tobacco industry is somewhat better than the same rating for MDLZ (72) in the Food Major Diversified industry, and is significantly better than the same rating for EL (100) in the Household Or Personal Care industry. This means that MO's stock grew somewhat faster than MDLZ’s and significantly faster than EL’s over the last 12 months.
MO's SMR Rating (9) in the Tobacco industry is somewhat better than the same rating for MDLZ (71) in the Food Major Diversified industry, and is significantly better than the same rating for EL (90) in the Household Or Personal Care industry. This means that MO's stock grew somewhat faster than MDLZ’s and significantly faster than EL’s over the last 12 months.
MO's Price Growth Rating (31) in the Tobacco industry is in the same range as MDLZ (53) in the Food Major Diversified industry, and is somewhat better than the same rating for EL (64) in the Household Or Personal Care industry. This means that MO's stock grew similarly to MDLZ’s and somewhat faster than EL’s over the last 12 months.
MO's P/E Growth Rating (13) in the Tobacco industry is in the same range as MDLZ (20) in the Food Major Diversified industry, and is in the same range as EL (36) in the Household Or Personal Care industry. This means that MO's stock grew similarly to MDLZ’s and similarly to EL’s over the last 12 months.
| EL | MDLZ | MO | |
|---|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 62% | 1 day ago 66% | N/A |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 67% | 1 day ago 48% | 1 day ago 44% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 62% | 1 day ago 47% | 1 day ago 65% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 54% | 1 day ago 56% | 1 day ago 57% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 63% | 1 day ago 51% | 1 day ago 51% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 75% | 1 day ago 48% | 1 day ago 47% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 63% | 3 days ago 53% | 3 days ago 53% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 10 days ago 74% | 11 days ago 49% | 11 days ago 37% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 72% | 1 day ago 59% | 1 day ago 59% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 72% | 1 day ago 49% | 1 day ago 22% |
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MDLZ and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, MDLZ has been loosely correlated with GIS. These tickers have moved in lockstep 65% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if MDLZ jumps, then GIS could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To MDLZ | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MDLZ | 100% | -0.15% | ||
| GIS - MDLZ | 65% Loosely correlated | -1.52% | ||
| CAG - MDLZ | 59% Loosely correlated | -2.38% | ||
| CPB - MDLZ | 58% Loosely correlated | -1.73% | ||
| KHC - MDLZ | 58% Loosely correlated | -0.90% | ||
| MKC - MDLZ | 58% Loosely correlated | +4.41% | ||
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MO and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, MO has been loosely correlated with PM. These tickers have moved in lockstep 53% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if MO jumps, then PM could also see price increases.