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EL or MDLZ or PEP
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Estée Lauder (EL) vs. Mondelez (MDLZ) vs. PepsiCo (PEP) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- PEP leads YTD performance at around 12%, showcasing stability in beverages and snacks amid consumer staples resilience.
- MDLZ trails with 8.5% YTD gains but offers a 3.4% dividend yield and flat-to-2% organic growth outlook for 2026.
- EL shows volatility with recent declines, negative EPS, yet forward P/E of 31 signals recovery potential via skincare and acquisitions.
- Valuations differ: PEP P/E at 26.6, MDLZ at 30.9, EL N/A (negative earnings), highlighting trade-offs in growth vs. profitability.
- Consumer staples sector provides defensive positioning, with PEP demonstrating superior relative momentum in recent market activity.
- Sentiment favors staples for stability, but EL's turnaround efforts contrast MDLZ and PEP's steady demand.
Introduction
This stock comparison examines EL, MDLZ, and PEP within the consumer staples and personal care sectors. These companies cater to essential needs—prestige beauty for Estée Lauder, global snacks for Mondelez, and beverages/snacks for PepsiCo—making them relevant for investors seeking defensive exposure amid market volatility. Traders analyzing relative performance, valuation sensitivity, and sector momentum will find insights into how recent economic pressures, input costs, and consumer trends influence their positioning. This analysis draws on recent financial metrics and market data for a balanced view of opportunities and risks.
EL Overview and Recent Performance
The Estée Lauder Companies Inc. (EL) is a global leader in prestige beauty, offering skincare, makeup, fragrance, and hair care across over 150 countries. Recent market activity has seen EL stock experience volatility, trading around $92.72 with YTD gains near 11-12% but recent weekly declines of about 15%. Influences include sluggish Americas demand, a 23% share drop post-Q2 earnings despite raised 2026 guidance (3-5% sales growth), and strategic moves like acquiring Forest Essentials for India expansion. Negative EPS (-$0.51 TTM) reflects profitability challenges, yet skincare strength and margin improvements from restructuring bolster sentiment. Forward P/E at 31 suggests optimism for recovery.
MDLZ Overview and Recent Performance
Mondelez International, Inc. (MDLZ) specializes in snacks like Oreo and Cadbury, operating in over 150 countries with a focus on emerging markets. Shares hover near $58.40, up 8.5% YTD but down 1.2% post-earnings due to rising input costs and cautious 2026 organic growth (flat to 2%). Q4 2025 revenue beat at $10.5B, driven by pricing amid cocoa pressures, with TTM P/E at 30.9 and 3.4% yield. Recent weeks show mixed analyst views amid competitive acquisition landscape, yet steady demand in confectionery supports positioning. Equity curve stability reflects resilient consumer snacking habits.
PEP Overview and Recent Performance
PepsiCo, Inc. (PEP) dominates beverages and snacks via brands like Pepsi, Gatorade, and Lay's, with global reach emphasizing health-oriented products. Stock trades around $159, leading YTD at 12% amid sector strength, supported by Q4 revenue growth to $29.3B and reaffirmed 2026 organic sales of 2-4%. TTM P/E at 26.6 reflects profitability (EPS $6.00), with challenges from volume softness offset by pricing and protein snacks expansion. Recent stability versus broader declines underscores defensive appeal, with low beta (0.38) aiding sentiment in volatile conditions.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
EL, MDLZ, and PEP operate in consumer-facing models but diverge sharply. EL's prestige beauty ties to discretionary spending, exposing it to luxury slowdowns versus MDLZ and PEP's essential snacks/beverages. Growth drivers: EL via acquisitions/emerging markets (3-5% sales), MDLZ pricing amid costs (flat-2%), PEP health innovations (2-4%). Recent momentum favors PEP (12% YTD), with MDLZ stable but EL volatile. Risks include tariffs/input costs for all, but EL faces higher cyclicality (beta 1.11 vs. 0.37/0.38). Valuations show PEP most attractive (P/E 26.6), MDLZ premium (30.9), EL elevated forward. Sentiment leans defensive for staples over beauty.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Tickeron’s AI currently favors PEP based on trend consistency, lower volatility, and stronger relative YTD positioning in consumer staples. Observable catalysts like steady revenue guidance and health product momentum provide probabilistic edge over MDLZ's cost pressures and EL's earnings recovery needs, aligning with defensive market preferences.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full Disclaimers and Limitations.
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
EL’s FA Score shows that 0 FA rating(s) are green whileMDLZ’s FA Score has 2 green FA rating(s), and PEP’s FA Score reflects 2 green FA rating(s).
- EL’s FA Score: 0 green, 5 red.
- MDLZ’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
- PEP’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
EL’s TA Score shows that 6 TA indicator(s) are bullish while MDLZ’s TA Score has 6 bullish TA indicator(s), and PEP’s TA Score reflects 5 bullish TA indicator(s).
- EL’s TA Score: 6 bullish, 2 bearish.
- MDLZ’s TA Score: 6 bullish, 4 bearish.
- PEP’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 5 bearish.
Price Growth
EL (@Household/Personal Care) experienced а +6.03% price change this week, while MDLZ (@Food: Specialty/Candy) price change was +2.69% , and PEP (@Beverages: Non-Alcoholic) price fluctuated +0.31% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Household/Personal Care industry was +2.02%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -0.74%, and the average quarterly price growth was -7.71%.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Food: Specialty/Candy industry was +2.89%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +0.38%, and the average quarterly price growth was +6.38%.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Beverages: Non-Alcoholic industry was +2.02%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -3.13%, and the average quarterly price growth was +164976.25%.
Reported Earning Dates
EL is expected to report earnings on May 01, 2026.
MDLZ is expected to report earnings on Apr 28, 2026.
PEP is expected to report earnings on Apr 16, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Household/Personal Care (+2.02% weekly)Household/Personal Care companies sell products for home cleaning and/or personal hygiene and grooming purposes. Products of this industry include detergents, shampoos, soaps, cosmetics, fabric conditioners and infant care fragrances. Procter & Gamble, Unilever, Estee Lauder and Colgate-Palmolive are some of the biggest names in the business. A lot of the products become a necessary part of people’s daily routine, and therefore the industry is relatively less vulnerable to macroeconomic downturns. At the same time, product quality, consumer safety, and ease of use are extremely critical factors for a company to survive competition and earn recognition in this industry.
@Food: Specialty/Candy (+2.89% weekly)A specialty/candy manufacturer specializes in one or more of the following: chocolate, candies, pasta, condiments, seasonings, among other items. Hershey Company, McCormick & Company and J.M. Smucker Company are some of the major firms in this segment. Demand for this industry’s products comes from both institutions/restaurants as well as households.
@Beverages: Non-Alcoholic (+2.02% weekly)Non-alcoholic drinks include traces of alcohol or low alcohol content or without alcohol or alcohol removed. Functional Beverages, Carbonated Soft Drinks (CSDs), Sports Drinks, Fruit Beverages, and Bottled Water are some common types of non-alcoholic beverages. The largest segment in this market is soft drinks (think Pepsi and Coke). Many established companies in this space have also been stepping up production of low to zero-calorie varieties in recent years, to cater to a rising number of health-conscious consumers. Coca-Cola Company, Pepsico Inc, Keurig Dr Pepper Inc. and Monster Beverage Corporation are some major non-alcoholic beverage makers.
| EL | MDLZ | PEP | |
| Capitalization | 26.5B | 75.8B | 215B |
| EBITDA | 1.39B | 4.97B | 15.5B |
| Gain YTD | -29.794 | 10.722 | 10.714 |
| P/E Ratio | 147.80 | 31.26 | 26.25 |
| Revenue | 14.7B | 38.5B | 93.9B |
| Total Cash | 3.08B | N/A | 9.53B |
| Total Debt | 9.39B | 21.8B | 49.9B |
EL | MDLZ | PEP | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 59 | 19 | 57 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 53 Fair valued | 28 Undervalued | 26 Undervalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 100 | 71 | 55 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 90 | 71 | 22 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 64 | 53 | 52 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 34 | 18 | 35 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | n/a | 85 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
PEP's Valuation (26) in the Beverages Non Alcoholic industry is in the same range as MDLZ (28) in the Food Major Diversified industry, and is in the same range as EL (53) in the Household Or Personal Care industry. This means that PEP's stock grew similarly to MDLZ’s and similarly to EL’s over the last 12 months.
PEP's Profit vs Risk Rating (55) in the Beverages Non Alcoholic industry is in the same range as MDLZ (71) in the Food Major Diversified industry, and is somewhat better than the same rating for EL (100) in the Household Or Personal Care industry. This means that PEP's stock grew similarly to MDLZ’s and somewhat faster than EL’s over the last 12 months.
PEP's SMR Rating (22) in the Beverages Non Alcoholic industry is somewhat better than the same rating for MDLZ (71) in the Food Major Diversified industry, and is significantly better than the same rating for EL (90) in the Household Or Personal Care industry. This means that PEP's stock grew somewhat faster than MDLZ’s and significantly faster than EL’s over the last 12 months.
PEP's Price Growth Rating (52) in the Beverages Non Alcoholic industry is in the same range as MDLZ (53) in the Food Major Diversified industry, and is in the same range as EL (64) in the Household Or Personal Care industry. This means that PEP's stock grew similarly to MDLZ’s and similarly to EL’s over the last 12 months.
MDLZ's P/E Growth Rating (18) in the Food Major Diversified industry is in the same range as EL (34) in the Household Or Personal Care industry, and is in the same range as PEP (35) in the Beverages Non Alcoholic industry. This means that MDLZ's stock grew similarly to EL’s and similarly to PEP’s over the last 12 months.
| EL | MDLZ | PEP | |
|---|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 62% | 1 day ago 63% | 1 day ago 62% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 56% | 1 day ago 45% | 1 day ago 42% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 56% | 1 day ago 53% | 1 day ago 45% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 46% | 1 day ago 56% | 1 day ago 46% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 63% | 1 day ago 51% | 1 day ago 41% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 74% | 1 day ago 47% | 1 day ago 44% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 63% | 1 day ago 53% | 1 day ago 39% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 8 days ago 74% | 9 days ago 49% | 3 days ago 43% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 58% | 1 day ago 52% | 1 day ago 52% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 72% | 1 day ago 51% | 1 day ago 39% |
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MDLZ and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, MDLZ has been loosely correlated with GIS. These tickers have moved in lockstep 65% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if MDLZ jumps, then GIS could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To MDLZ | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MDLZ | 100% | +0.44% | ||
| GIS - MDLZ | 65% Loosely correlated | +0.41% | ||
| CAG - MDLZ | 59% Loosely correlated | -0.19% | ||
| CPB - MDLZ | 58% Loosely correlated | +0.53% | ||
| KHC - MDLZ | 58% Loosely correlated | +1.39% | ||
| MKC - MDLZ | 58% Loosely correlated | +1.84% | ||
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