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EL or MDLZ or STZ
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Estée Lauder (EL) vs. Mondelez (MDLZ) vs. Constellation Brands (STZ) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- EL shows mixed signals with strong fragrance growth but declining organic sales and high valuation at P/E over 140x, leading to YTD underperformance.
- MDLZ maintains stability in consumer staples, with modest YTD gains around 4% and a more reasonable forward P/E near 18x amid snacking trends.
- STZ leads YTD performance at about 8%, bolstered by premium beer positioning, though facing volume pressures; lowest P/E at around 24x trailing.
- Relative to peers, STZ exhibits stronger momentum and attractive valuation, while EL lags due to profitability challenges.
- All three operate in consumer defensive sectors but differ in cyclical exposure: beauty volatility for EL, steady snacks for MDLZ, and beverages for STZ.
- Market sentiment favors stability in staples over discretionary amid recent economic shifts.
Introduction
This stock comparison examines EL, a prestige beauty leader; MDLZ, a global snacking powerhouse; and STZ, a premium beverage producer. These consumer-oriented companies offer defensive qualities but vary in growth drivers and market sensitivities. Traders seeking relative performance insights and investors eyeing sector rotation will find value here, particularly as recent market activity highlights contrasts in valuation, momentum, and resilience to economic pressures. Understanding their positioning aids in portfolio diversification and trend assessment.
EL Overview and Recent Performance
The Estée Lauder Companies Inc. (EL) is a global leader in prestige beauty, manufacturing and marketing skincare, makeup, fragrance, and hair care products under brands like Estée Lauder, Clinique, La Mer, and Jo Malone London. In recent market activity, EL has faced headwinds, with shares down sharply YTD around 18% and trading near $86 amid broader declines of over 20% in recent months. Key influences include mixed fiscal Q2 2026 results showing 6% organic growth in fragrances from luxury demand, offset by declining overall organic sales, negative net margins at -1.21%, and operational challenges. Strategic moves like acquiring full control of Forest Essentials bolster Asia presence, but legal issues and profitability concerns have dampened sentiment, contributing to elevated P/E ratios above 140x.
MDLZ Overview and Recent Performance
Mondelez International, Inc. (MDLZ) is a leading snack company with global operations, producing biscuits, chocolate, gum, and candy under iconic brands like Oreo, Cadbury, and Milka. Recent performance reflects resilience, with shares around $56-57 showing modest YTD gains of about 4%, outperforming peers in stability despite 1-year returns lagging at around -9%. Influences include adaptation to snacking trends and premium innovation amid high cocoa costs, with Q4 2025 revenue up 9.3% to $10.5B driven by pricing. Analysts note potential earnings recovery, with forward P/E near 18x and EV/EBITDA at 18x, signaling relative value in consumer staples. Dividend yield adds appeal in uncertain conditions.
STZ Overview and Recent Performance
Constellation Brands, Inc. (STZ) produces and markets beer, wine, and spirits, prominently featuring Mexican imports like Corona and Modelo Especial alongside premium wines and craft spirits. In recent weeks, shares near $150 have shown positive momentum with YTD gains around 8%, leading the trio despite 1-year softness and YTD volatility. Sentiment is shaped by leadership transitions, anticipated volume recovery, and beer segment strength offsetting wine pressures, with gross margins at 49% in Q3 FY2026. Valuation appears compelling at trailing P/E ~24x and EV/EBITDA 14x, with analysts optimistic on long-term growth despite soft demand.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
EL, MDLZ, and STZ span consumer defensive realms but diverge sharply. Business models contrast luxury beauty's cyclicality (EL) with staples snacking (MDLZ) and premium alcohol (STZ). Growth drivers include fragrance rebound for EL, pricing amid cocoa volatility for MDLZ, and beer imports for STZ. Recent momentum favors STZ YTD, while EL trails. Risk factors: EL's margins vs. commodity pressures on others. Sector exposure amplifies STZ's beta in beverages. Valuation sensitivity highest for EL (P/E 148x), vs. MDLZ (30x trailing) and STZ (24x). Sentiment leans toward staples stability.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Tickeron’s AI currently favors STZ based on superior trend consistency, YTD relative strength, lower valuation multiples, and beer catalysts positioning it ahead in consumer recovery scenarios. Probabilistic edge stems from stability versus EL's volatility and MDLZ's modest growth, though patterns could shift with earnings.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full Disclaimers and Limitations.
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
EL’s FA Score shows that 0 FA rating(s) are green whileMDLZ’s FA Score has 2 green FA rating(s), and STZ’s FA Score reflects 0 green FA rating(s).
- EL’s FA Score: 0 green, 5 red.
- MDLZ’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
- STZ’s FA Score: 0 green, 5 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
EL’s TA Score shows that 4 TA indicator(s) are bullish while MDLZ’s TA Score has 4 bullish TA indicator(s), and STZ’s TA Score reflects 6 bullish TA indicator(s).
- EL’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 5 bearish.
- MDLZ’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 5 bearish.
- STZ’s TA Score: 6 bullish, 4 bearish.
Price Growth
EL (@Household/Personal Care) experienced а +4.86% price change this week, while MDLZ (@Food: Specialty/Candy) price change was -2.97% , and STZ (@Food: Meat/Fish/Dairy) price fluctuated -2.33% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Household/Personal Care industry was +0.96%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +3.95%, and the average quarterly price growth was -8.44%.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Food: Specialty/Candy industry was -2.68%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -2.45%, and the average quarterly price growth was +1.01%.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Food: Meat/Fish/Dairy industry was -0.04%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +2.93%, and the average quarterly price growth was +5.62%.
Reported Earning Dates
EL is expected to report earnings on May 01, 2026.
MDLZ is expected to report earnings on Apr 28, 2026.
STZ is expected to report earnings on Jul 08, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Household/Personal Care (+0.96% weekly)Household/Personal Care companies sell products for home cleaning and/or personal hygiene and grooming purposes. Products of this industry include detergents, shampoos, soaps, cosmetics, fabric conditioners and infant care fragrances. Procter & Gamble, Unilever, Estee Lauder and Colgate-Palmolive are some of the biggest names in the business. A lot of the products become a necessary part of people’s daily routine, and therefore the industry is relatively less vulnerable to macroeconomic downturns. At the same time, product quality, consumer safety, and ease of use are extremely critical factors for a company to survive competition and earn recognition in this industry.
@Food: Specialty/Candy (-2.68% weekly)A specialty/candy manufacturer specializes in one or more of the following: chocolate, candies, pasta, condiments, seasonings, among other items. Hershey Company, McCormick & Company and J.M. Smucker Company are some of the major firms in this segment. Demand for this industry’s products comes from both institutions/restaurants as well as households.
@Food: Meat/Fish/Dairy (-0.04% weekly)The meat, fish, and dairy food industry processes livestock, fish and milk products for consumer consumption. Some companies also process dairy byproducts. Tyson Foods, Inc., Hormel Foods Corporation and Pilgrims Pride Corp. are some of the biggest producers in this industry. Many of these companies are recipients of American farm subsidies. On the other hand, new-age food innovation like plant-based meat substitutes (which are designed to simulate chicken, beef, and pork sausage) could potentially augur disruptions and/or create new competition in this space.
| EL | MDLZ | STZ | |
| Capitalization | 27.6B | 73.5B | 28.1B |
| EBITDA | 1.39B | 4.97B | 2.47B |
| Gain YTD | -27.006 | 7.274 | 18.394 |
| P/E Ratio | 147.80 | 30.29 | 16.89 |
| Revenue | 14.7B | 38.5B | 9.38B |
| Total Cash | 3.08B | N/A | 152M |
| Total Debt | 9.39B | 21.8B | 10.7B |
EL | MDLZ | STZ | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 5 | 21 | 70 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 54 Fair valued | 26 Undervalued | 47 Fair valued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 100 | 81 | 100 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 91 | 72 | 55 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 64 | 59 | 51 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 36 | 23 | 79 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 85 | 75 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
MDLZ's Valuation (26) in the Food Major Diversified industry is in the same range as STZ (47) in the Beverages Alcoholic industry, and is in the same range as EL (54) in the Household Or Personal Care industry. This means that MDLZ's stock grew similarly to STZ’s and similarly to EL’s over the last 12 months.
MDLZ's Profit vs Risk Rating (81) in the Food Major Diversified industry is in the same range as STZ (100) in the Beverages Alcoholic industry, and is in the same range as EL (100) in the Household Or Personal Care industry. This means that MDLZ's stock grew similarly to STZ’s and similarly to EL’s over the last 12 months.
STZ's SMR Rating (55) in the Beverages Alcoholic industry is in the same range as MDLZ (72) in the Food Major Diversified industry, and is somewhat better than the same rating for EL (91) in the Household Or Personal Care industry. This means that STZ's stock grew similarly to MDLZ’s and somewhat faster than EL’s over the last 12 months.
STZ's Price Growth Rating (51) in the Beverages Alcoholic industry is in the same range as MDLZ (59) in the Food Major Diversified industry, and is in the same range as EL (64) in the Household Or Personal Care industry. This means that STZ's stock grew similarly to MDLZ’s and similarly to EL’s over the last 12 months.
MDLZ's P/E Growth Rating (23) in the Food Major Diversified industry is in the same range as EL (36) in the Household Or Personal Care industry, and is somewhat better than the same rating for STZ (79) in the Beverages Alcoholic industry. This means that MDLZ's stock grew similarly to EL’s and somewhat faster than STZ’s over the last 12 months.
| EL | MDLZ | STZ | |
|---|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 67% | 4 days ago 71% | 3 days ago 61% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 74% | 3 days ago 51% | 3 days ago 46% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 65% | 3 days ago 52% | 3 days ago 53% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 59% | 3 days ago 58% | 3 days ago 57% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 64% | 3 days ago 56% | 3 days ago 56% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 75% | 3 days ago 51% | 3 days ago 48% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 5 days ago 63% | 3 days ago 53% | 10 days ago 50% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 18 days ago 74% | 7 days ago 50% | 5 days ago 58% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 61% | N/A | 3 days ago 59% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 68% | 3 days ago 39% | 3 days ago 44% |
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EL and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, EL has been loosely correlated with ELF. These tickers have moved in lockstep 44% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if EL jumps, then ELF could also see price increases.