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EL or MDLZ or TGT
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Estée Lauder (EL) vs. Mondelez (MDLZ) vs. Target (TGT) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- EL shares have shown volatility with recent dips amid legal actions and mixed earnings, underperforming YTD at around -16% while trading near $84.
- MDLZ faces headwinds from high cocoa costs, with shares down 1.82% recently to $54.35, YTD up slightly at +1%, but 1-year returns lag at -14%.
- TGT leads YTD performance at +20%, trading around $116, bolstered by strategic investments and Q4 earnings beat despite sales challenges.
- Consumer staples like MDLZ offer stability with a 3.68% dividend yield, while retail-focused TGT shows stronger momentum.
- Prestige beauty EL reports sales growth under its turnaround but grapples with regional slowdowns and higher beta risk.
- Relative performance highlights TGT's outperformance amid broader market positioning in discount retail.
Introduction
This stock comparison examines EL (Estée Lauder), a prestige beauty leader; MDLZ (Mondelez), a global snacking giant; and TGT (Target), a major discount retailer. These consumer-facing stocks span beauty, staples, and general merchandise, offering insights into sector resilience amid economic shifts. Traders seeking momentum plays may eye relative performance, while long-term investors could assess stability, dividends, and growth catalysts. In recent market activity, divergent trends in sales recovery, cost pressures, and strategic investments underscore key trade-offs for portfolio positioning.
EL Overview and Recent Performance
The Estée Lauder Companies Inc. (EL) is a global leader in prestige beauty, with brands like La Mer, Clinique, and Jo Malone spanning skincare (49% of sales), makeup, fragrance, and hair care. Products are sold via department stores, specialty retailers, and digital channels worldwide. Recent market activity has seen EL shares volatile, trading around $84 after a 7.9% drop amid a lawsuit against Jo Malone for trademark issues and broader sector declines. YTD returns lag at -16%, contrasting 1-year gains of +34%. Q2 fiscal 2026 results showed 4% organic sales growth to $4.16 billion, with raised full-year outlook under the "Beauty Reimagined" turnaround, though Americas demand and profitability challenges weigh on sentiment. Skincare strength and China recovery efforts support gradual stabilization.
MDLZ Overview and Recent Performance
Mondelez International Inc. (MDLZ) specializes in snacks, with iconic brands like Oreo, Cadbury, and Ritz driving biscuits (49%), chocolate (31%), and candy sales across 150+ countries. Operations emphasize emerging markets (one-third revenue) and sustainability in packaging and sourcing. In recent weeks, MDLZ shares dipped 1.82% to $54.35, pressured by persistent high cocoa prices prompting chocolate innovation shifts and muted 2026 guidance (flat-to-2% organic growth). YTD up +1%, but 1-year returns at -14% reflect volume softness in North America. Q4 2025 revenues rose 9.3% to $10.5 billion, beating estimates, with emerging markets up 13%. Dividend yield at 3.68% bolsters defensive appeal amid cost headwinds.
TGT Overview and Recent Performance
Target Corporation (TGT) is a leading U.S. discount retailer offering apparel, groceries, beauty, electronics, and household essentials through 2,000+ stores and digital platforms. Emphasis on owned brands, same-day delivery, and omnichannel fulfillment differentiates its model. Recent performance shines, with shares around $116 after a 2.55% dip, leading YTD at +20% versus S&P 500's +2.5%. Q4 2025 sales hit $30.45 billion (in-line), EPS $2.44 beating estimates; February sales accelerated positively. New CEO's $2 billion 2026 investment in stores, AI tech, and pricing on 3,000+ items signals turnaround momentum. Traffic trends improved in essentials and digital, offsetting prior declines and positioning for sustained growth.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
EL, MDLZ, and TGT contrast in business models: prestige beauty versus stable snacking staples and cyclical discount retail. Growth drivers differ—EL's skincare innovation and turnaround versus MDLZ's emerging market pricing power and TGT's omnichannel expansions. Recent momentum favors TGT (YTD +20%) over MDLZ (+1%) and EL (-16%). Risk factors include EL's high beta (1.11) and China exposure, MDLZ's commodity costs, and TGT's consumer traffic sensitivity. Sector exposure tilts defensive for MDLZ, discretionary for others. Valuation sensitivity shows MDLZ P/E at 29x with yield appeal; market sentiment leans toward TGT's catalysts.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Tickeron's AI currently favors TGT due to superior trend consistency, YTD outperformance, and clear catalysts like $2 billion investments in stores and AI-driven growth. Relative positioning amid retail recovery edges it over MDLZ's cost stability and EL's volatility, though probabilistic shifts could arise with commodity relief or beauty rebounds.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full Disclaimers and Limitations.
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
EL’s FA Score shows that 0 FA rating(s) are green whileMDLZ’s FA Score has 2 green FA rating(s), and TGT’s FA Score reflects 2 green FA rating(s).
- EL’s FA Score: 0 green, 5 red.
- MDLZ’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
- TGT’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
EL’s TA Score shows that 6 TA indicator(s) are bullish while MDLZ’s TA Score has 6 bullish TA indicator(s), and TGT’s TA Score reflects 4 bullish TA indicator(s).
- EL’s TA Score: 6 bullish, 2 bearish.
- MDLZ’s TA Score: 6 bullish, 4 bearish.
- TGT’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 3 bearish.
Price Growth
EL (@Household/Personal Care) experienced а +6.03% price change this week, while MDLZ (@Food: Specialty/Candy) price change was +2.69% , and TGT (@Discount Stores) price fluctuated +2.97% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Household/Personal Care industry was +2.02%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -0.74%, and the average quarterly price growth was -7.71%.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Food: Specialty/Candy industry was +2.89%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +0.38%, and the average quarterly price growth was +6.38%.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Discount Stores industry was +0.71%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -1.87%, and the average quarterly price growth was +11.43%.
Reported Earning Dates
EL is expected to report earnings on May 01, 2026.
MDLZ is expected to report earnings on Apr 28, 2026.
TGT is expected to report earnings on May 20, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Household/Personal Care (+2.02% weekly)Household/Personal Care companies sell products for home cleaning and/or personal hygiene and grooming purposes. Products of this industry include detergents, shampoos, soaps, cosmetics, fabric conditioners and infant care fragrances. Procter & Gamble, Unilever, Estee Lauder and Colgate-Palmolive are some of the biggest names in the business. A lot of the products become a necessary part of people’s daily routine, and therefore the industry is relatively less vulnerable to macroeconomic downturns. At the same time, product quality, consumer safety, and ease of use are extremely critical factors for a company to survive competition and earn recognition in this industry.
@Food: Specialty/Candy (+2.89% weekly)A specialty/candy manufacturer specializes in one or more of the following: chocolate, candies, pasta, condiments, seasonings, among other items. Hershey Company, McCormick & Company and J.M. Smucker Company are some of the major firms in this segment. Demand for this industry’s products comes from both institutions/restaurants as well as households.
@Discount Stores (+0.71% weekly)Companies in the discount stores industry specialize in offering substantial discounts on a vast array of retail products. Some companies in this industry also operate general merchandise warehouse clubs. Products sold at discount stores are typically similar to those of any department store, but the pricing of the goods is generally much lower (and hence the name “discount”). Think Dollar General Corporation, Dollar Tree, Inc. and Five Below, Inc. Many discount stores target low-income households and/or price-sensitive consumers as their potential market. Discount stores’ profitability could hinge on factors like competitive pricing, sufficient locations, healthy revenue per square foot, and effective advertisement. These store operators could have an edge over other retailers during financial crises or recessions, when many consumers could be looking for less expensive alternatives.
| EL | MDLZ | TGT | |
| Capitalization | 26.5B | 75.8B | 56.2B |
| EBITDA | 1.39B | 4.97B | 8.4B |
| Gain YTD | -29.794 | 10.722 | 27.235 |
| P/E Ratio | 147.80 | 31.26 | 15.26 |
| Revenue | 14.7B | 38.5B | 105B |
| Total Cash | 3.08B | N/A | 1.04B |
| Total Debt | 9.39B | 21.8B | 20B |
EL | MDLZ | TGT | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 59 | 19 | 8 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 53 Fair valued | 28 Undervalued | 57 Fair valued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 100 | 71 | 100 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 90 | 71 | 37 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 64 | 53 | 43 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 34 | 18 | 24 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | n/a | 85 | 48 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
MDLZ's Valuation (28) in the Food Major Diversified industry is in the same range as EL (53) in the Household Or Personal Care industry, and is in the same range as TGT (57) in the Specialty Stores industry. This means that MDLZ's stock grew similarly to EL’s and similarly to TGT’s over the last 12 months.
MDLZ's Profit vs Risk Rating (71) in the Food Major Diversified industry is in the same range as EL (100) in the Household Or Personal Care industry, and is in the same range as TGT (100) in the Specialty Stores industry. This means that MDLZ's stock grew similarly to EL’s and similarly to TGT’s over the last 12 months.
TGT's SMR Rating (37) in the Specialty Stores industry is somewhat better than the same rating for MDLZ (71) in the Food Major Diversified industry, and is somewhat better than the same rating for EL (90) in the Household Or Personal Care industry. This means that TGT's stock grew somewhat faster than MDLZ’s and somewhat faster than EL’s over the last 12 months.
TGT's Price Growth Rating (43) in the Specialty Stores industry is in the same range as MDLZ (53) in the Food Major Diversified industry, and is in the same range as EL (64) in the Household Or Personal Care industry. This means that TGT's stock grew similarly to MDLZ’s and similarly to EL’s over the last 12 months.
MDLZ's P/E Growth Rating (18) in the Food Major Diversified industry is in the same range as TGT (24) in the Specialty Stores industry, and is in the same range as EL (34) in the Household Or Personal Care industry. This means that MDLZ's stock grew similarly to TGT’s and similarly to EL’s over the last 12 months.
| EL | MDLZ | TGT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 62% | 1 day ago 63% | N/A |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 56% | 1 day ago 45% | 2 days ago 53% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 56% | 1 day ago 53% | 2 days ago 68% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 46% | 1 day ago 56% | 2 days ago 55% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 63% | 1 day ago 51% | 2 days ago 68% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 74% | 1 day ago 47% | 2 days ago 68% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 63% | 1 day ago 53% | 14 days ago 68% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 8 days ago 74% | 9 days ago 49% | 21 days ago 64% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 58% | 1 day ago 52% | 2 days ago 74% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 72% | 1 day ago 51% | 2 days ago 54% |
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EL and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, EL has been loosely correlated with COTY. These tickers have moved in lockstep 47% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if EL jumps, then COTY could also see price increases.
MDLZ and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, MDLZ has been loosely correlated with GIS. These tickers have moved in lockstep 65% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if MDLZ jumps, then GIS could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To MDLZ | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MDLZ | 100% | +0.44% | ||
| GIS - MDLZ | 65% Loosely correlated | +0.41% | ||
| CAG - MDLZ | 59% Loosely correlated | -0.19% | ||
| CPB - MDLZ | 58% Loosely correlated | +0.53% | ||
| KHC - MDLZ | 58% Loosely correlated | +1.39% | ||
| MKC - MDLZ | 58% Loosely correlated | +1.84% | ||
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TGT and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, TGT has been loosely correlated with DLTR. These tickers have moved in lockstep 33% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if TGT jumps, then DLTR could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To TGT | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TGT | 100% | +3.01% | ||
| DLTR - TGT | 33% Loosely correlated | -0.75% | ||
| WMT - TGT | 29% Poorly correlated | +3.89% | ||
| OLLI - TGT | 27% Poorly correlated | +1.32% | ||
| PSMT - TGT | 25% Poorly correlated | +4.27% | ||
| COST - TGT | 25% Poorly correlated | +1.68% | ||
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