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EL or MDLZ or WMT
Which Stock Would AI Choose? The Estée Lauder Companies Inc. (EL) vs. Mondelez International, Inc. (MDLZ) vs. Walmart Inc. (WMT) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- EL has faced sharp declines, down approximately 35% YTD amid mixed Q4 earnings and merger talks with Puig, reflecting sector headwinds in prestige beauty.
- MDLZ shows modest YTD gains of about 8%, supported by a stable dividend yield of 3.43% but pressured by analyst downgrades on volume weakness and costs.
- WMT leads with strong YTD performance near 11% and 46% over one year, driven by e-commerce growth and AI initiatives despite facility optimizations.
- Relative to the S&P 500, WMT outperforms significantly on momentum, while EL lags due to valuation concerns in consumer discretionary.
- All three operate in consumer staples/defensives, but EL's luxury exposure adds volatility compared to MDLZ snacks and WMT retail stability.
Introduction
This stock comparison examines EL, MDLZ, and WMT—key players in consumer-facing sectors including prestige beauty, snacks, and discount retail. These stocks offer insights into defensive positioning amid market rotations toward staples, with varying exposures to discretionary spending, e-commerce, and global supply chains. Traders seeking relative performance metrics and investors eyeing stability in volatile conditions will find value in analyzing their recent momentum, valuation sensitivity, and sector-specific catalysts for informed portfolio decisions.
EL Overview and Recent Performance
The Estée Lauder Companies Inc. (EL) is a global leader in prestige beauty, manufacturing and marketing skin care, makeup, fragrance, and hair care products under brands like Estée Lauder, Clinique, La Mer, and Jo Malone London. Operating in over 150 countries, it sells through department stores, specialty retailers, and digital channels.
In recent market activity, EL shares have experienced significant pressure, trading around $68 with a year-to-date decline of about 35%. This follows Q4 revenue of $4.23 billion, which showed growth but failed to offset broader concerns like competitive dynamics and softening demand in Asia-Pacific travel retail. Sentiment has been mixed due to ongoing discussions for a potential business combination with Spain's Puig, sparking volatility as investors weigh strategic benefits against execution risks in a challenging luxury beauty environment.
MDLZ Overview and Recent Performance
Mondelez International, Inc. (MDLZ) is a leading global snacking company, producing biscuits, chocolate, gum, and candy under iconic brands such as Oreo, Cadbury, Milka, and Ritz. With operations in over 150 countries, it focuses on biscuits (49% of sales) and chocolate (31%), distributing through supermarkets, convenience stores, and e-commerce.
Recent weeks have seen MDLZ shares hover near $58, posting YTD gains of roughly 8% amid a stable dividend of $0.50 quarterly (yield ~3.43%). Performance reflects resilience in chocolate sales but headwinds from volume softness and rising input costs, prompting downgrades like Rothschild to Neutral and Deutsche Bank trimming targets. Analyst scrutiny highlights competitive pressures in shelf-stable foods, tempering momentum despite seasonal snacking tailwinds.
WMT Overview and Recent Performance
Walmart Inc. (WMT) is the world's largest retailer, operating supercenters, discount stores, neighborhood markets, and Sam's Club warehouses alongside robust e-commerce platforms. It offers groceries, health products, apparel, electronics, and financial services across 19 countries, serving 270 million weekly customers.
WMT shares trade around $123, with YTD returns near 11% and one-year gains of 46%, outperforming peers. Recent activity underscores e-commerce acceleration and AI-driven innovations like Walmart Mexico's EdgeSense rollout, bolstering grocery dominance. Facility closures and job cuts reflect operational streamlining amid 'power buyer' debates, yet overall sentiment remains positive on tech investments and membership growth.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
EL, MDLZ, and WMT span consumer defensives but diverge in models: EL's prestige beauty ties to discretionary luxury (32% Asia exposure), vulnerable to travel retail slowdowns; MDLZ's snacking emphasizes staples with global biscuit/chocolate dominance but faces cocoa costs and volume risks; WMT's retail scale drives grocery/e-commerce synergies (PE 45x vs. MDLZ 31x).
Growth drivers contrast: WMT leverages AI and omnichannel (46% 1-yr return); MDLZ seasonal treats; EL potential M&A. Momentum favors WMT, with EL riskiest on 35% YTD drop. Valuation sensitivity is highest for WMT (overvalued per multiples), while sentiment tilts toward WMT's stability vs. peers' pressures.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Tickeron’s AI models would likely favor WMT in the current environment, given its superior trend consistency, YTD outperformance, and defensive positioning with e-commerce catalysts. MDLZ offers dividend stability as a secondary choice, while EL trails on volatility from beauty sector challenges. This assessment reflects probabilistic signals from relative momentum and stability, subject to evolving data.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer. Disclaimers and Limitations
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
EL’s FA Score shows that 0 FA rating(s) are green whileMDLZ’s FA Score has 2 green FA rating(s), and WMT’s FA Score reflects 2 green FA rating(s).
- EL’s FA Score: 0 green, 5 red.
- MDLZ’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
- WMT’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
EL’s TA Score shows that 4 TA indicator(s) are bullish while MDLZ’s TA Score has 4 bullish TA indicator(s), and WMT’s TA Score reflects 6 bullish TA indicator(s).
- EL’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 5 bearish.
- MDLZ’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 5 bearish.
- WMT’s TA Score: 6 bullish, 3 bearish.
Price Growth
EL (@Household/Personal Care) experienced а +4.43% price change this week, while MDLZ (@Food: Specialty/Candy) price change was -0.64% , and WMT (@Discount Stores) price fluctuated +2.69% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Household/Personal Care industry was -0.14%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +5.50%, and the average quarterly price growth was -8.59%.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Food: Specialty/Candy industry was -6.12%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -4.11%, and the average quarterly price growth was -0.23%.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Discount Stores industry was +3.38%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +4.95%, and the average quarterly price growth was +10.04%.
Reported Earning Dates
EL is expected to report earnings on May 01, 2026.
MDLZ is expected to report earnings on Apr 28, 2026.
WMT is expected to report earnings on May 14, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Household/Personal Care (-0.14% weekly)Household/Personal Care companies sell products for home cleaning and/or personal hygiene and grooming purposes. Products of this industry include detergents, shampoos, soaps, cosmetics, fabric conditioners and infant care fragrances. Procter & Gamble, Unilever, Estee Lauder and Colgate-Palmolive are some of the biggest names in the business. A lot of the products become a necessary part of people’s daily routine, and therefore the industry is relatively less vulnerable to macroeconomic downturns. At the same time, product quality, consumer safety, and ease of use are extremely critical factors for a company to survive competition and earn recognition in this industry.
@Food: Specialty/Candy (-6.12% weekly)A specialty/candy manufacturer specializes in one or more of the following: chocolate, candies, pasta, condiments, seasonings, among other items. Hershey Company, McCormick & Company and J.M. Smucker Company are some of the major firms in this segment. Demand for this industry’s products comes from both institutions/restaurants as well as households.
@Discount Stores (+3.38% weekly)Companies in the discount stores industry specialize in offering substantial discounts on a vast array of retail products. Some companies in this industry also operate general merchandise warehouse clubs. Products sold at discount stores are typically similar to those of any department store, but the pricing of the goods is generally much lower (and hence the name “discount”). Think Dollar General Corporation, Dollar Tree, Inc. and Five Below, Inc. Many discount stores target low-income households and/or price-sensitive consumers as their potential market. Discount stores’ profitability could hinge on factors like competitive pricing, sufficient locations, healthy revenue per square foot, and effective advertisement. These store operators could have an edge over other retailers during financial crises or recessions, when many consumers could be looking for less expensive alternatives.
| EL | MDLZ | WMT | |
| Capitalization | 28.2B | 73.6B | 1.02T |
| EBITDA | 1.39B | 4.97B | 46.5B |
| Gain YTD | -25.426 | 7.387 | 15.054 |
| P/E Ratio | 147.80 | 30.32 | 46.86 |
| Revenue | 14.7B | 38.5B | 713B |
| Total Cash | 3.08B | N/A | 10.7B |
| Total Debt | 9.39B | 21.8B | 67.1B |
EL | MDLZ | WMT | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 4 | 17 | 25 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 55 Fair valued | 26 Undervalued | 92 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 100 | 80 | 7 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 91 | 72 | 40 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 64 | 59 | 24 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 38 | 24 | 42 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 85 | 75 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
MDLZ's Valuation (26) in the Food Major Diversified industry is in the same range as EL (55) in the Household Or Personal Care industry, and is significantly better than the same rating for WMT (92) in the Specialty Stores industry. This means that MDLZ's stock grew similarly to EL’s and significantly faster than WMT’s over the last 12 months.
WMT's Profit vs Risk Rating (7) in the Specialty Stores industry is significantly better than the same rating for MDLZ (80) in the Food Major Diversified industry, and is significantly better than the same rating for EL (100) in the Household Or Personal Care industry. This means that WMT's stock grew significantly faster than MDLZ’s and significantly faster than EL’s over the last 12 months.
WMT's SMR Rating (40) in the Specialty Stores industry is in the same range as MDLZ (72) in the Food Major Diversified industry, and is somewhat better than the same rating for EL (91) in the Household Or Personal Care industry. This means that WMT's stock grew similarly to MDLZ’s and somewhat faster than EL’s over the last 12 months.
WMT's Price Growth Rating (24) in the Specialty Stores industry is somewhat better than the same rating for MDLZ (59) in the Food Major Diversified industry, and is somewhat better than the same rating for EL (64) in the Household Or Personal Care industry. This means that WMT's stock grew somewhat faster than MDLZ’s and somewhat faster than EL’s over the last 12 months.
MDLZ's P/E Growth Rating (24) in the Food Major Diversified industry is in the same range as EL (38) in the Household Or Personal Care industry, and is in the same range as WMT (42) in the Specialty Stores industry. This means that MDLZ's stock grew similarly to EL’s and similarly to WMT’s over the last 12 months.
| EL | MDLZ | WMT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 61% | 6 days ago 71% | N/A |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 74% | 1 day ago 44% | 1 day ago 33% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 67% | 1 day ago 56% | 1 day ago 60% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 65% | 1 day ago 56% | 1 day ago 64% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 64% | 1 day ago 56% | 1 day ago 55% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 76% | 1 day ago 48% | 1 day ago 54% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 62% | 1 day ago 53% | 1 day ago 55% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 20 days ago 74% | 9 days ago 50% | 9 days ago 34% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 64% | N/A | 1 day ago 41% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 68% | 1 day ago 39% | 1 day ago 52% |
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