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EL or PM or STZ
Which Stock Would AI Choose? The Estée Lauder Companies (EL) vs. Philip Morris International (PM) vs. Constellation Brands (STZ) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- EL faces headwinds from weak guidance and tariff concerns, with recent declines amid negative net margins, contrasting its skincare growth potential.
- PM demonstrates resilience through smoke-free product expansion and a robust $1.47 quarterly dividend, supported by strong profitability metrics.
- STZ shows mixed results with beer demand pressures but recent earnings beats, maintaining a solid 2.8% dividend yield.
- Year-to-date, PM leads with positive returns around 6%, while EL and STZ lag amid sector challenges.
- PM's P/E of 23x and market cap over $260B highlight stability versus EL's losses and STZ's 23x P/E.
- Tickeron's AI robots favor consumer staples trends, underscoring relative momentum in defensive plays like PM.
Introduction
This comparison examines EL, the global prestige beauty leader; PM, a tobacco giant transitioning to smoke-free products; and STZ, a major beer, wine, and spirits producer. These consumer staples stocks offer insights into defensive sectors amid market volatility. Traders seeking short-term momentum and investors eyeing dividends or growth recovery will find value in analyzing their recent performance, sector exposures, and relative positioning in the current environment.
EL Overview and Recent Performance
The Estée Lauder Companies Inc. (EL) manufactures prestige skincare, makeup, fragrance, and hair care products, with brands like Estée Lauder, Clinique, and La Mer driving over $14 billion in annual revenue. In recent market activity, EL shares have declined sharply, trading around $93 amid YTD losses of about 11%. Key influences include weak forecasts despite Q2 EPS beats, tariff warnings projecting $100 million impacts, and post-dividend selloffs. Skincare and fragrance growth in Asia provides some offset, but sluggish Americas demand and negative net margins of -1.21% have pressured sentiment, leading to a "Hold" consensus.
PM Overview and Recent Performance
Philip Morris International Inc. (PM) is a leading tobacco company shifting toward smoke-free products like IQOS and ZYN, generating over $40 billion in revenue. Recent weeks have seen PM shares around $170, with YTD gains near 6% and 1-year returns of 19.7%. A $1.47 quarterly dividend declaration reinforces its 3%+ yield appeal. Despite minor earnings misses, strong gross margins of 67% and net margins of 29% bolster confidence, with ZYN's growth as a catalyst amid a "Moderate Buy" rating and undervaluation signals.
STZ Overview and Recent Performance
Constellation Brands Inc. (STZ) produces high-end beer like Modelo and Corona, alongside wine and spirits, with nearly $10 billion in revenue. Shares hover near $146, posting YTD returns around 7% but 1-year declines of 15%. Recent Q3 earnings beat estimates with EPS of $3.06, yet volume pressures from Hispanic consumer sentiment and economic uncertainty weigh on performance. A 2.8% dividend yield and "Moderate Buy" outlook persist, tempered by sales decline forecasts and mixed 3-month gains of 10%.
Trending AI Robots
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Head-to-Head Comparison
EL's prestige beauty model relies on premium branding and Asia growth but faces high valuation sensitivity and tariff risks, contrasting PM's defensive tobacco exposure with recurring revenue from smoke-free shifts. STZ's beer dominance offers volume leverage yet contends with cyclical consumer spending, unlike PM's margin stability. Recent momentum favors PM's positive YTD trajectory over EL and STZ declines. Risk factors include regulatory hurdles for PM, demand softness for STZ, and turnaround execution for EL. Market sentiment leans toward PM's dividends amid broader staples rotation.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Tickeron's AI currently favors PM due to its trend consistency in smoke-free growth, superior profitability, stable dividends, and positive relative YTD positioning versus peers' headwinds. While STZ shows earnings resilience and EL offers recovery potential, PM's catalysts suggest higher probability of outperformance in the near term.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full Disclaimers and Limitations.
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
EL’s FA Score shows that 0 FA rating(s) are green whilePM’s FA Score has 3 green FA rating(s), and STZ’s FA Score reflects 0 green FA rating(s).
- EL’s FA Score: 0 green, 5 red.
- PM’s FA Score: 3 green, 2 red.
- STZ’s FA Score: 0 green, 5 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
EL’s TA Score shows that 4 TA indicator(s) are bullish while PM’s TA Score has 4 bullish TA indicator(s), and STZ’s TA Score reflects 6 bullish TA indicator(s).
- EL’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 5 bearish.
- PM’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 4 bearish.
- STZ’s TA Score: 6 bullish, 4 bearish.
Price Growth
EL (@Household/Personal Care) experienced а +4.43% price change this week, while PM (@Tobacco) price change was -3.20% , and STZ (@Food: Meat/Fish/Dairy) price fluctuated -2.90% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Household/Personal Care industry was +1.15%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +5.23%, and the average quarterly price growth was -9.00%.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Tobacco industry was -1.34%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +1.03%, and the average quarterly price growth was -8.81%.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Food: Meat/Fish/Dairy industry was +0.30%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +5.98%, and the average quarterly price growth was +5.70%.
Reported Earning Dates
EL is expected to report earnings on May 01, 2026.
PM is expected to report earnings on Apr 22, 2026.
STZ is expected to report earnings on Jul 08, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Household/Personal Care (+1.15% weekly)Household/Personal Care companies sell products for home cleaning and/or personal hygiene and grooming purposes. Products of this industry include detergents, shampoos, soaps, cosmetics, fabric conditioners and infant care fragrances. Procter & Gamble, Unilever, Estee Lauder and Colgate-Palmolive are some of the biggest names in the business. A lot of the products become a necessary part of people’s daily routine, and therefore the industry is relatively less vulnerable to macroeconomic downturns. At the same time, product quality, consumer safety, and ease of use are extremely critical factors for a company to survive competition and earn recognition in this industry.
@Tobacco (-1.34% weekly)The industry is engaged in the growth, preparation for sale, advertisement, and distribution of tobacco and tobacco-related products like cigarettes. In 2017, tobacco companies spent an estimated $9.36 billion marketing cigarettes and smokeless tobacco in the U.S. – an amount that translates to more than $25 million each day (according to a CDC report). Philip Morris International Inc., Altria Group Inc., and British American Tobacco plc are some major cigar makers. In recent times, vaping or the use of e-cigarette (does not burn tobacco) is gaining momentum – several established cigarette makers are trying to expand their footprint in this new market.
@Food: Meat/Fish/Dairy (+0.30% weekly)The meat, fish, and dairy food industry processes livestock, fish and milk products for consumer consumption. Some companies also process dairy byproducts. Tyson Foods, Inc., Hormel Foods Corporation and Pilgrims Pride Corp. are some of the biggest producers in this industry. Many of these companies are recipients of American farm subsidies. On the other hand, new-age food innovation like plant-based meat substitutes (which are designed to simulate chicken, beef, and pork sausage) could potentially augur disruptions and/or create new competition in this space.
| EL | PM | STZ | |
| Capitalization | 28.2B | 246B | 27.7B |
| EBITDA | 1.39B | 17.5B | 2.47B |
| Gain YTD | -25.426 | -0.900 | 16.599 |
| P/E Ratio | 147.80 | 21.69 | 16.63 |
| Revenue | 14.7B | 40.6B | 9.38B |
| Total Cash | 3.08B | N/A | 152M |
| Total Debt | 9.39B | 48.8B | 10.7B |
EL | PM | STZ | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 4 | 67 | 60 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 55 Fair valued | 22 Undervalued | 41 Fair valued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 100 | 19 | 100 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 91 | 3 | 55 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 64 | 60 | 51 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 38 | 83 | 81 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 85 | 50 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
PM's Valuation (22) in the Tobacco industry is in the same range as STZ (41) in the Beverages Alcoholic industry, and is somewhat better than the same rating for EL (55) in the Household Or Personal Care industry. This means that PM's stock grew similarly to STZ’s and somewhat faster than EL’s over the last 12 months.
PM's Profit vs Risk Rating (19) in the Tobacco industry is significantly better than the same rating for STZ (100) in the Beverages Alcoholic industry, and is significantly better than the same rating for EL (100) in the Household Or Personal Care industry. This means that PM's stock grew significantly faster than STZ’s and significantly faster than EL’s over the last 12 months.
PM's SMR Rating (3) in the Tobacco industry is somewhat better than the same rating for STZ (55) in the Beverages Alcoholic industry, and is significantly better than the same rating for EL (91) in the Household Or Personal Care industry. This means that PM's stock grew somewhat faster than STZ’s and significantly faster than EL’s over the last 12 months.
STZ's Price Growth Rating (51) in the Beverages Alcoholic industry is in the same range as PM (60) in the Tobacco industry, and is in the same range as EL (64) in the Household Or Personal Care industry. This means that STZ's stock grew similarly to PM’s and similarly to EL’s over the last 12 months.
EL's P/E Growth Rating (38) in the Household Or Personal Care industry is somewhat better than the same rating for STZ (81) in the Beverages Alcoholic industry, and is somewhat better than the same rating for PM (83) in the Tobacco industry. This means that EL's stock grew somewhat faster than STZ’s and somewhat faster than PM’s over the last 12 months.
| EL | PM | STZ | |
|---|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 61% | 1 day ago 73% | 1 day ago 61% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 74% | 1 day ago 54% | 1 day ago 54% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 67% | 1 day ago 49% | 1 day ago 55% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 65% | 1 day ago 53% | 1 day ago 52% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 64% | 1 day ago 50% | 1 day ago 56% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 76% | 1 day ago 51% | 1 day ago 48% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 62% | 13 days ago 57% | 12 days ago 50% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 20 days ago 74% | 6 days ago 48% | 1 day ago 58% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 64% | N/A | 1 day ago 53% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 68% | 1 day ago 32% | 1 day ago 44% |
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