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FDX or FWRD or LSTR
Which Stock Would AI Choose? FedEx Corporation (FDX) vs. Forward Air Corporation (FWRD) vs. Landstar System, Inc. (LSTR) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- LSTR demonstrates the strongest recent momentum, with shares up over 9% in the past month and 26% year-to-date (YTD), driven by a Q1 earnings beat.
- FDX shares have shown volatility in recent weeks, rising 16% over three months amid cost cuts but facing pressure from competitive threats like Amazon's logistics expansion.
- FWRD continues to lag, down significantly post-merger with volumes declining, though a strategic review offers potential upside.
- All three operate in transportation and logistics, but LSTR's asset-light model provides resilience compared to FDX's capital-intensive operations and FWRD's freight focus.
- Valuations differ sharply: FDX forward P/E (price-to-earnings ratio) around 18, LSTR higher at 34+, reflecting growth expectations.
Introduction
In the competitive transportation and logistics sector, FDX, FWRD, and LSTR represent diverse approaches to freight and delivery services. FDX dominates express parcel, FWRD specializes in expedited air freight, and LSTR excels in asset-light truckload brokerage. This comparison is timely amid shifting supply chain dynamics, e-commerce growth, and economic uncertainty. Traders seeking momentum plays and investors eyeing sector recovery will find value in analyzing their relative performance, risk profiles, and market positioning in recent market activity.
FDX Overview and Recent Performance
FedEx Corporation (FDX) is a global leader in express delivery, ground shipping, and logistics services. In recent weeks, shares have experienced volatility, trading around $360 after climbing 16% over the prior three months fueled by cost-cutting initiatives and strong fiscal 2026 guidance. The latest quarterly earnings showed EPS (earnings per share) of $5.25, beating estimates by 26%, though sentiment has softened due to intensified competition from Amazon's supply chain services, contributing to recent pullbacks. Broader market activity, including fuel costs and trade policies, influences its trajectory, with market cap near $93 billion underscoring its scale.
FWRD Overview and Recent Performance
Forward Air Corporation (FWRD) provides expedited freight and logistics, particularly airport-to-airport services, following its merger with Omni Logistics. Recent market activity has seen shares hover around $21, down sharply from pre-merger levels amid integration challenges and volume declines in expedited freight. Q4 2025 results included a loss but revenue beats and consolidated EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization) of $307 million for the year, with management noting moderating declines expected into 2026. A strategic review nearing conclusion has sparked some optimism, though shares fell over 30% in the past 90 days, reflecting ongoing post-merger adjustments.
LSTR Overview and Recent Performance
Landstar System, Inc. (LSTR) operates an asset-light network of truckload carriers and brokers for general freight and logistics. Recent weeks have been positive, with shares near $181 following a Q1 2026 earnings beat: EPS of $1.16 exceeded estimates, revenue rose 1.6% year-over-year, and truckload spot pricing showed improvement. YTD gains exceed 26%, outperforming peers amid stronger transport demand. The company's share repurchase program and heavy haul revenue growth further bolster sentiment in recent market conditions.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
FDX, FWRD, and LSTR share logistics exposure but differ in models: FDX's integrated network drives scale (market cap $93B) versus LSTR's broker model (flexible, lower capex) and FWRD's niche freight forwarding. Growth drivers include e-commerce for FDX, truckload recovery for LSTR, and merger synergies for FWRD. Recent momentum favors LSTR, while FDX offers stability and FWRD higher risk/reward. Risks encompass fuel volatility and competition for all, with FWRD most sensitive post-merger. Valuations show FDX cheapest on forward P/E, LSTR premium for growth, and sentiment tilted toward truckload over air freight amid economic shifts.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Tickeron's AI currently leans toward LSTR for its consistent earnings beats, improving truckload dynamics, and superior relative momentum in recent market activity. While FDX provides scale and recovery potential, and FWRD strategic catalysts, LSTR's stability and positioning suggest higher probability of near-term outperformance based on trend data.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer. Disclaimers and Limitations
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
FDX’s FA Score shows that 2 FA rating(s) are green whileFWRD’s FA Score has 0 green FA rating(s), and LSTR’s FA Score reflects 1 green FA rating(s).
- FDX’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
- FWRD’s FA Score: 0 green, 5 red.
- LSTR’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
FDX’s TA Score shows that 6 TA indicator(s) are bullish while FWRD’s TA Score has 5 bullish TA indicator(s), and LSTR’s TA Score reflects 4 bullish TA indicator(s).
- FDX’s TA Score: 6 bullish, 4 bearish.
- FWRD’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 5 bearish.
- LSTR’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 4 bearish.
Price Growth
FDX (@Other Transportation) experienced а -0.74% price change this week, while FWRD (@Other Transportation) price change was -11.25% , and LSTR (@Other Transportation) price fluctuated -4.01% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Other Transportation industry was -1.91%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -0.46%, and the average quarterly price growth was +5.69%.
Reported Earning Dates
FDX is expected to report earnings on Jun 23, 2026.
LSTR is expected to report earnings on Jul 28, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Other Transportation (-1.91% weekly)Other Transportation includes transportation services like providing airport ground transportation, airport management and equipment, shipping services, as well as businesses that operate bridges, expressways and other public services such as taxis and subways. Grupo Aero-pac, Corporacion America Airports S.A. and Matson, Inc. are some of the major companies operating in this space.
| FDX | FWRD | LSTR | |
| Capitalization | 89.7B | 277M | 5.97B |
| EBITDA | 10.8B | 189M | 229M |
| Gain YTD | 30.618 | -64.960 | 24.498 |
| P/E Ratio | 20.06 | 10.21 | 48.59 |
| Revenue | 90.1B | 2.46B | 4.76B |
| Total Cash | N/A | 141M | 411M |
| Total Debt | 37.8B | 2.15B | 124M |
FDX | FWRD | LSTR | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 89 | 57 | 79 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 68 Overvalued | 88 Overvalued | 85 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 56 | 100 | 83 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 54 | 98 | 58 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 25 | 97 | 42 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 20 | 77 | 13 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 75 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
FDX's Valuation (68) in the Air Freight Or Couriers industry is in the same range as LSTR (85) in the Trucking industry, and is in the same range as FWRD (88) in the Air Freight Or Couriers industry. This means that FDX's stock grew similarly to LSTR’s and similarly to FWRD’s over the last 12 months.
FDX's Profit vs Risk Rating (56) in the Air Freight Or Couriers industry is in the same range as LSTR (83) in the Trucking industry, and is somewhat better than the same rating for FWRD (100) in the Air Freight Or Couriers industry. This means that FDX's stock grew similarly to LSTR’s and somewhat faster than FWRD’s over the last 12 months.
FDX's SMR Rating (54) in the Air Freight Or Couriers industry is in the same range as LSTR (58) in the Trucking industry, and is somewhat better than the same rating for FWRD (98) in the Air Freight Or Couriers industry. This means that FDX's stock grew similarly to LSTR’s and somewhat faster than FWRD’s over the last 12 months.
FDX's Price Growth Rating (25) in the Air Freight Or Couriers industry is in the same range as LSTR (42) in the Trucking industry, and is significantly better than the same rating for FWRD (97) in the Air Freight Or Couriers industry. This means that FDX's stock grew similarly to LSTR’s and significantly faster than FWRD’s over the last 12 months.
LSTR's P/E Growth Rating (13) in the Trucking industry is in the same range as FDX (20) in the Air Freight Or Couriers industry, and is somewhat better than the same rating for FWRD (77) in the Air Freight Or Couriers industry. This means that LSTR's stock grew similarly to FDX’s and somewhat faster than FWRD’s over the last 12 months.
| FDX | FWRD | LSTR | |
|---|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 53% | 3 days ago 65% | 3 days ago 65% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 72% | 3 days ago 74% | 3 days ago 56% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 58% | 3 days ago 76% | 3 days ago 61% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 59% | 3 days ago 73% | 3 days ago 69% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 58% | 3 days ago 78% | 3 days ago 59% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 66% | 3 days ago 80% | 3 days ago 55% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 7 days ago 66% | 12 days ago 71% | 10 days ago 55% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 5 days ago 60% | 5 days ago 78% | 4 days ago 58% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 65% | 3 days ago 69% | 3 days ago 72% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 63% | 3 days ago 66% | 3 days ago 52% |
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FDX and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, FDX has been closely correlated with UPS. These tickers have moved in lockstep 68% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if FDX jumps, then UPS could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To FDX | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FDX | 100% | -1.11% | ||
| UPS - FDX | 68% Closely correlated | +0.52% | ||
| XPO - FDX | 63% Loosely correlated | -0.64% | ||
| GXO - FDX | 61% Loosely correlated | -3.49% | ||
| JBHT - FDX | 54% Loosely correlated | +2.96% | ||
| HUBG - FDX | 48% Loosely correlated | +0.16% | ||
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FWRD and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, FWRD has been closely correlated with XPO. These tickers have moved in lockstep 75% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if FWRD jumps, then XPO could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To FWRD | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FWRD | 100% | -6.81% | ||
| XPO - FWRD | 75% Closely correlated | -0.64% | ||
| PAL - FWRD | 43% Loosely correlated | -6.82% | ||
| GXO - FWRD | 39% Loosely correlated | -3.49% | ||
| FDX - FWRD | 37% Loosely correlated | -1.11% | ||
| UPS - FWRD | 34% Loosely correlated | +0.52% | ||
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LSTR and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, LSTR has been closely correlated with JBHT. These tickers have moved in lockstep 72% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if LSTR jumps, then JBHT could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To LSTR | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LSTR | 100% | +4.82% | ||
| JBHT - LSTR | 72% Closely correlated | +2.96% | ||
| EXPD - LSTR | 70% Closely correlated | +1.20% | ||
| XPO - LSTR | 65% Loosely correlated | -0.64% | ||
| HUBG - LSTR | 59% Loosely correlated | +0.16% | ||
| UPS - LSTR | 57% Loosely correlated | +0.52% | ||
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