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FNB or KEY or VLY
Which Stock Would AI Choose? F.N.B. Corporation (FNB) vs. KeyCorp (KEY) vs. Valley National Bancorp (VLY) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- FNB trades at a low P/E of 10.50 with a 20.06 analyst target, reflecting value amid recent awards for client service excellence.
- KEY, the largest by market cap at 21.64B, offers a high 4.13% dividend yield and 24.55 target, buoyed by analyst upgrades.
- VLY leads YTD performance at 15.37% and 1-year gains at 42.21%, supported by strong Q4 earnings and a new share repurchase program.
- All three regional banks show resilience in recent market activity, with analyst targets implying 20-30% upside potential across the group.
- KEY provides the highest dividend yield, while VLY demonstrates superior relative momentum in the regional banking sector.
- Recent volatility has pressured shares, but positive sentiment from earnings beats and capital returns enhances positioning.
Introduction
This comparison examines FNB, KEY, and VLY, three regional banks navigating interest rate dynamics, loan growth, and deposit stability in the current environment. These institutions serve diverse U.S. markets, offering exposure to community and commercial banking. Traders seeking momentum plays may eye relative strength, while long-term investors could prioritize dividends, valuations, and analyst outlooks. Understanding their recent stock behavior, operational highlights, and sector contrasts aids informed positioning in regional banking's cyclical landscape.
FNB Overview and Recent Performance
FNB, or F.N.B. Corporation, is a Pittsburgh-based financial holding company operating through community banking, wealth management, and insurance segments across Pennsylvania, Ohio, and surrounding states. In recent market activity, shares have traded around 16.38 within a 52-week range of 10.88-19.14, posting YTD gains of 3.53% and 22.52% over one year. Sentiment has been influenced by strong Q4 results, a quarterly dividend declaration of $0.12, and 14 Greenwich Awards recognizing leadership in financial services, alongside TIME recognition. However, broader regional bank pressures have led to recent pullbacks, with shares down amid sector-wide declines. Analysts maintain a buy rating with a 20.06 target, supported by a low P/E of 10.50 and 2.93% yield.
KEY Overview and Recent Performance
KEY, KeyCorp, headquartered in Cleveland, functions as the holding company for KeyBank, delivering retail and commercial banking nationwide through consumer and commercial segments. Shares recently at 19.86, within 12.73-23.35 over 52 weeks, reflect YTD return of 2.83% and 30.38% annually. Recent weeks saw analyst upgrades, including Morgan Stanley raising its target to 26 and Baird to neutral post-selloff, alongside Q4 net income beats and a $1.2B repurchase plan. Dividend yield stands at 4.13%, with P/E at 13.07. Sector headwinds have pressured prices amid funding concerns, yet positive loan momentum and market-of-the-year awards bolster outlook versus peers.
VLY Overview and Recent Performance
VLY, Valley National Bancorp, based in Morristown, New Jersey, holds Valley National Bank, focusing on commercial, retail, and wealth services primarily in the Northeast. Trading near 13.48 in a 7.48-13.87 range, it leads with 15.37% YTD and 42.21% 1-year returns. Key drivers include record Q4 earnings, a 25M share buyback authorization, dividend hike to $0.11, and leadership enhancements for digital innovation. Analyst targets average 14.68, with upgrades from TD Cowen to 16. Shares faced recent dips with peers but show robust relative strength, aided by deposit growth and NII expansion guidance of 11-13% for the year ahead.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
FNB, KEY, and VLY operate similar community/commercial models in regional U.S. markets, emphasizing deposits, loans, and fee income amid rate sensitivity. Growth drivers diverge: VLY's Northeast focus yields top momentum (42% 1Y return), fueled by CRE sales and NII growth; KEY leverages national scale for broader exposure but higher provisions; FNB excels in client awards, targeting Southeast expansion. Recent momentum favors VLY, while FNB offers cheapest valuation (P/E 10.5). Risks include CRE concentrations and funding costs; KEY edges dividends (4.13%). Sentiment tilts positive on capital returns, contrasting sector volatility.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Tickeron’s AI currently favors VLY for its trend consistency, leading YTD/1Y gains, Q4 catalysts like buybacks, and upward analyst revisions amid stable ROE. Probabilistic edge stems from relative positioning and NII outlook, though KEY trails closely on scale/dividends. Monitor sector flows for shifts.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full Disclaimers and Limitations.
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
FNB’s FA Score shows that 1 FA rating(s) are green whileKEY’s FA Score has 2 green FA rating(s), and VLY’s FA Score reflects 1 green FA rating(s).
- FNB’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- KEY’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
- VLY’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
FNB’s TA Score shows that 4 TA indicator(s) are bullish while KEY’s TA Score has 4 bullish TA indicator(s), and VLY’s TA Score reflects 4 bullish TA indicator(s).
- FNB’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 5 bearish.
- KEY’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 5 bearish.
- VLY’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 6 bearish.
Price Growth
FNB (@Regional Banks) experienced а +4.92% price change this week, while KEY (@Regional Banks) price change was +4.84% , and VLY (@Regional Banks) price fluctuated +5.15% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Regional Banks industry was +2.59%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +3.81%, and the average quarterly price growth was +18.99%.
Reported Earning Dates
FNB is expected to report earnings on Apr 16, 2026.
KEY is expected to report earnings on Apr 16, 2026.
VLY is expected to report earnings on Apr 23, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Regional Banks (+2.59% weekly)Regional banks have a smaller reach than major banks, and cater mostly to one region of a country, such as a state or within a group of states. They offer services often similar – albeit with some limitations/smaller scale – compared to major banks. Taking deposits, making loans, mortgages, leases, credit cards , fund management, insurance and investment banking. SunTrust Banks, State Street Corp., M&T Bank Corp. are some examples of U.S. regional banks.
| FNB | KEY | VLY | |
| Capitalization | 6.32B | 23B | 7.24B |
| EBITDA | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Gain YTD | 4.186 | 5.002 | 12.862 |
| P/E Ratio | 11.34 | 14.12 | 12.93 |
| Revenue | 1.77B | 7.29B | 2.03B |
| Total Cash | 387M | N/A | 376M |
| Total Debt | 3.08B | 11B | 3.34B |
FNB | KEY | VLY | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 27 | 21 | 20 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 65 Fair valued | 80 Overvalued | 45 Fair valued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 41 | 75 | 80 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 11 | 8 | 11 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 44 | 18 | 41 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 39 | 89 | 48 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | n/a | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
VLY's Valuation (45) in the Regional Banks industry is in the same range as FNB (65) in the Regional Banks industry, and is somewhat better than the same rating for KEY (80) in the Major Banks industry. This means that VLY's stock grew similarly to FNB’s and somewhat faster than KEY’s over the last 12 months.
FNB's Profit vs Risk Rating (41) in the Regional Banks industry is somewhat better than the same rating for KEY (75) in the Major Banks industry, and is somewhat better than the same rating for VLY (80) in the Regional Banks industry. This means that FNB's stock grew somewhat faster than KEY’s and somewhat faster than VLY’s over the last 12 months.
KEY's SMR Rating (8) in the Major Banks industry is in the same range as FNB (11) in the Regional Banks industry, and is in the same range as VLY (11) in the Regional Banks industry. This means that KEY's stock grew similarly to FNB’s and similarly to VLY’s over the last 12 months.
KEY's Price Growth Rating (18) in the Major Banks industry is in the same range as VLY (41) in the Regional Banks industry, and is in the same range as FNB (44) in the Regional Banks industry. This means that KEY's stock grew similarly to VLY’s and similarly to FNB’s over the last 12 months.
FNB's P/E Growth Rating (39) in the Regional Banks industry is in the same range as VLY (48) in the Regional Banks industry, and is somewhat better than the same rating for KEY (89) in the Major Banks industry. This means that FNB's stock grew similarly to VLY’s and somewhat faster than KEY’s over the last 12 months.
| FNB | KEY | VLY | |
|---|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 65% | 1 day ago 61% | 1 day ago 62% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 62% | 1 day ago 67% | 1 day ago 68% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 62% | 1 day ago 68% | 1 day ago 69% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 46% | 1 day ago 63% | 1 day ago 75% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 57% | 1 day ago 65% | 1 day ago 64% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 51% | 1 day ago 59% | 1 day ago 63% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 53% | 3 days ago 61% | 3 days ago 62% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 13 days ago 58% | 13 days ago 70% | 13 days ago 69% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 61% | 1 day ago 74% | 1 day ago 68% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 58% | 1 day ago 66% | 1 day ago 68% |
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| 1 Day | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| MFs / NAME | Price $ | Chg $ | Chg % |
| PPYIX | 10.21 | N/A | N/A |
| PIMCO RAE International Instl | |||
| VIMSX | 81.42 | N/A | N/A |
| Vanguard Mid Cap Index Investor | |||
| GMVIX | 18.12 | N/A | N/A |
| Goldman Sachs Small/Mid Cap Equity Inv | |||
| BDSKX | 21.54 | N/A | N/A |
| BlackRock Advantage Small Cap Core K | |||
| VLMIX | 32.99 | -0.54 | -1.61% |
| Value Line Mid Cap Focused Institutional | |||
FNB and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, FNB has been closely correlated with ASB. These tickers have moved in lockstep 93% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if FNB jumps, then ASB could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To FNB | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FNB | 100% | -1.39% | ||
| ASB - FNB | 93% Closely correlated | -0.58% | ||
| ONB - FNB | 92% Closely correlated | -0.63% | ||
| CFG - FNB | 92% Closely correlated | -1.23% | ||
| WTFC - FNB | 92% Closely correlated | -1.02% | ||
| ZION - FNB | 91% Closely correlated | -1.17% | ||
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KEY and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, KEY has been closely correlated with CFG. These tickers have moved in lockstep 93% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if KEY jumps, then CFG could also see price increases.
VLY and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, VLY has been closely correlated with FNB. These tickers have moved in lockstep 89% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if VLY jumps, then FNB could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To VLY | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VLY | 100% | -1.43% | ||
| FNB - VLY | 89% Closely correlated | -1.39% | ||
| ASB - VLY | 88% Closely correlated | -0.58% | ||
| UBSI - VLY | 87% Closely correlated | -1.57% | ||
| TCBI - VLY | 86% Closely correlated | -0.57% | ||
| ONB - VLY | 86% Closely correlated | -0.63% | ||
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