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FTAI or NOC or TDG
Which Stock Would AI Choose? FTAI Aviation Ltd. (FTAI) vs. Northrop Grumman Corporation (NOC) vs. TransDigm Group Incorporated (TDG) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- FTAI has shown explosive growth with over 130% one-year returns and strong YTD gains around 20%, driven by aviation leasing demand, though recent volatility tied to short-seller scrutiny persists.
- NOC delivers stable defense sector momentum, up 28% YTD and 57% over one year, bolstered by contracts and a massive backlog amid geopolitical tensions.
- TDG trades at premium valuations with solid revenue growth over 11% in recent quarters but lags peers with flat YTD and modest one-year gains near 1%.
- FTAI exhibits higher beta (1.57) indicating volatility, while NOC (beta ~0.01) offers lower risk; TDG sits in between.
- All three benefit from aerospace trends, but NOC's defense exposure provides resilience, FTAI's leasing model fuels growth, and TDG leverages aftermarket dominance.
- Valuations vary: FTAI P/E ~52, NOC more moderate, TDG elevated due to margins.
Introduction
This stock comparison examines FTAI Aviation Ltd., Northrop Grumman Corporation (NOC), and TransDigm Group Incorporated (TDG), key players in the aerospace and defense sectors. These companies span aviation leasing, defense technology, and aircraft components, offering exposure to commercial recovery and military spending. Traders seeking momentum in high-growth aviation or stability in defense, and investors eyeing relative performance in industrials, will find value in analyzing their recent market positioning, growth drivers, and risk profiles amid evolving global demand.
FTAI Overview and Recent Performance
FTAI Aviation Ltd. specializes in owning, leasing, and maintaining commercial jet engines, focusing on CFM56 and V2500 models, with segments in aviation leasing and aerospace products. In recent market activity, the stock has delivered robust gains, with YTD returns around 20% and over 130% in the past year, reflecting strong demand for aftermarket services. Key influences include a dividend increase to $0.40 per share, positive Q4 2025 results despite a revenue miss, and analyst target upgrades to $334 amid revenue growth. Sentiment has faced pressure from short-seller claims and audit reviews, contributing to volatility with a beta of 1.57, yet longer-term momentum persists on leasing expansion and EBITDA outlook improvements.
NOC Overview and Recent Performance
Northrop Grumman Corporation (NOC) is a leading aerospace and defense technology firm, operating in aeronautics, defense systems, mission systems, and space. Recent weeks have seen steady appreciation, with shares up 28% YTD and 57% over one year, supported by a record backlog, contract wins like protection systems for Germany's CH-47 helicopters, and artillery production deals in Poland. Q4 results showed revenue growth and EPS beats, enhancing sentiment amid geopolitical demand. With low beta around 0.01 and a 1.26% dividend yield, NOC exhibits resilience, though valuations prompt caution after a 51% one-year rally.
TDG Overview and Recent Performance
TransDigm Group Incorporated (TDG) designs and supplies highly engineered aircraft components for commercial and military use, across power & control, airframe, and non-aviation segments. Recent performance has been mixed, with shares down modestly YTD (~6%) and up about 1% over one year, trading below 52-week highs amid valuation scrutiny. Revenue grew 11-14% in recent quarters, driven by aftermarket strength and acquisitions, with high margins over 46%. Analyst upgrades highlight undervaluation potential to $1,586, but execution risks and premium P/E weigh on momentum, balanced by a beta of 0.92.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
FTAI, NOC, and TDG operate in interconnected aerospace realms but diverge in models: FTAI's leasing targets commercial recovery, NOC's defense primes ensure backlog stability (~$100B+), and TDG's components thrive on aftermarket pricing power. Growth drivers contrast—FTAI via engine demand (32% YoY sales), NOC contracts (9% revenue), TDG acquisitions (11%+). Recent momentum favors NOC and FTAI over TDG. Risks include FTAI's volatility/short pressure, NOC's policy/geopolitical exposure, TDG's high debt/valuation sensitivity. Sector-wise, defense (NOC) hedges commercial cycles affecting FTAI/TDG. Sentiments tilt positive on FTAI targets, stable for NOC.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Tickeron’s AI currently favors NOC for its trend consistency, low volatility, defense catalysts like contracts, and relative stability versus FTAI's higher risk or TDG's premium pricing. With superior YTD momentum and backlog support, NOC shows probabilistic edge in uncertain markets, though FTAI suits growth seekers.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer. Disclaimers and Limitations
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
FTAI’s FA Score shows that 2 FA rating(s) are green whileNOC’s FA Score has 1 green FA rating(s), and TDG’s FA Score reflects 2 green FA rating(s).
- FTAI’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
- NOC’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- TDG’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
FTAI’s TA Score shows that 5 TA indicator(s) are bullish while NOC’s TA Score has 4 bullish TA indicator(s), and TDG’s TA Score reflects 4 bullish TA indicator(s).
- FTAI’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 4 bearish.
- NOC’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 6 bearish.
- TDG’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 5 bearish.
Price Growth
FTAI (@Finance/Rental/Leasing) experienced а +3.60% price change this week, while NOC (@Aerospace & Defense) price change was -4.10% , and TDG (@Aerospace & Defense) price fluctuated +3.44% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Finance/Rental/Leasing industry was +8.81%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +11.35%, and the average quarterly price growth was +14.53%.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Aerospace & Defense industry was +4.88%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +0.84%, and the average quarterly price growth was +27.47%.
Reported Earning Dates
FTAI is expected to report earnings on Apr 29, 2026.
NOC is expected to report earnings on Apr 21, 2026.
TDG is expected to report earnings on May 12, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Finance/Rental/Leasing (+8.81% weekly)A leasing company (e.g. United Rentals, Inc. ) is typically the legal owner of the asset for the duration of the lease, while the lessee has operating control over the asset while also having some share of the economic risks and returns from the change in the valuation of the underlying asset. Per capita disposable income and corporate earnings or cash flow could be some of the critical metrics for this business – the higher the values of these metrics, the potentially greater ability of consumers/businesses to afford apartments/office spaces for rent. Other finance companies include credit/debit card payment processing companies (e.g. Visa Inc. and Mastercard), private label credit cards providers (e.g. Synchrony Financial) and automobile finance companies (e.g. Credit Acceptance Corporation).
@Aerospace & Defense (+4.88% weekly)Aerospace & Defense is one of largest industries in the U.S., mainly comprising the following areas: commercial airliners, military aircraft, missiles, space, and general aviation. Focused heavily on research & development, it is also one of the fastest growing industries. Military aircraft has the largest market share in the industry’s sales, followed by space systems, civil aircraft, and missiles. Aerospace exports, directly and indirectly, support more jobs than the export of any other commodity, according to a study by the U.S. Department of Commerce. Boeing Company, Lockheed Martin Corporation and General Electric Company are some of the most prominent players in this space.
| FTAI | NOC | TDG | |
| Capitalization | 25.8B | 95.7B | 68.2B |
| EBITDA | 1.12B | 7.21B | 4.63B |
| Gain YTD | 27.937 | 18.533 | -9.224 |
| P/E Ratio | 54.66 | 23.17 | 38.84 |
| Revenue | 2.51B | 42B | 9.11B |
| Total Cash | N/A | 4.4B | 2.53B |
| Total Debt | 3.45B | 17B | 30B |
FTAI | NOC | TDG | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 66 | 59 | 56 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 85 Overvalued | 65 Fair valued | 71 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 16 | 8 | 28 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 10 | 34 | 16 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 40 | 49 | 61 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 100 | 35 | 77 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 85 | 50 | 33 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
NOC's Valuation (65) in the Aerospace And Defense industry is in the same range as TDG (71) in the Aerospace And Defense industry, and is in the same range as FTAI (85) in the Investment Managers industry. This means that NOC's stock grew similarly to TDG’s and similarly to FTAI’s over the last 12 months.
NOC's Profit vs Risk Rating (8) in the Aerospace And Defense industry is in the same range as FTAI (16) in the Investment Managers industry, and is in the same range as TDG (28) in the Aerospace And Defense industry. This means that NOC's stock grew similarly to FTAI’s and similarly to TDG’s over the last 12 months.
FTAI's SMR Rating (10) in the Investment Managers industry is in the same range as TDG (16) in the Aerospace And Defense industry, and is in the same range as NOC (34) in the Aerospace And Defense industry. This means that FTAI's stock grew similarly to TDG’s and similarly to NOC’s over the last 12 months.
FTAI's Price Growth Rating (40) in the Investment Managers industry is in the same range as NOC (49) in the Aerospace And Defense industry, and is in the same range as TDG (61) in the Aerospace And Defense industry. This means that FTAI's stock grew similarly to NOC’s and similarly to TDG’s over the last 12 months.
NOC's P/E Growth Rating (35) in the Aerospace And Defense industry is somewhat better than the same rating for TDG (77) in the Aerospace And Defense industry, and is somewhat better than the same rating for FTAI (100) in the Investment Managers industry. This means that NOC's stock grew somewhat faster than TDG’s and somewhat faster than FTAI’s over the last 12 months.
| FTAI | NOC | TDG | |
|---|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 73% | 1 day ago 58% | 1 day ago 78% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 87% | 1 day ago 49% | 1 day ago 48% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 89% | 1 day ago 43% | 1 day ago 67% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 81% | 3 days ago 50% | 1 day ago 69% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 86% | 1 day ago 42% | 1 day ago 63% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 73% | 1 day ago 32% | 1 day ago 56% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 11 days ago 88% | 10 days ago 60% | 3 days ago 65% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 61% | 4 days ago 42% | 13 days ago 50% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 64% | 1 day ago 63% | 1 day ago 46% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | N/A | 1 day ago 28% | 1 day ago 64% |
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| 1 Day | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| ETFs / NAME | Price $ | Chg $ | Chg % |
| PIN | 23.98 | N/A | N/A |
| Invesco India ETF | |||
| SPMD | 61.75 | -0.22 | -0.36% |
| State Street SPDR Port S&P 400 Md CpETF | |||
| EPV | 19.67 | -0.15 | -0.76% |
| ProShares UltraShort FTSE Europe | |||
| RSPH | 30.55 | -0.36 | -1.16% |
| Invesco S&P 500® Equal Wt Hlth Care ETF | |||
| BOEG | 14.28 | -0.37 | -2.50% |
| Leverage Shares 2X Long BA Daily ETF | |||
FTAI and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, FTAI has been loosely correlated with AL. These tickers have moved in lockstep 47% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if FTAI jumps, then AL could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To FTAI | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FTAI | 100% | -1.47% | ||
| AL - FTAI | 47% Loosely correlated | N/A | ||
| BBDC - FTAI | 46% Loosely correlated | N/A | ||
| AER - FTAI | 40% Loosely correlated | +0.18% | ||
| UPBD - FTAI | 37% Loosely correlated | -0.59% | ||
| COF - FTAI | 36% Loosely correlated | -0.89% | ||
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