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HII or HWM or RTX
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Huntington Ingalls Industries (HII) vs. Howmet Aerospace (HWM) vs. RTX Corporation (RTX) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- HII leads YTD performance with approximately 18.5% gains, driven by a $53 billion backlog and naval contracts, outperforming the S&P 500's 3.5%.
- HWM shows strong multi-year momentum with 76.7% one-year returns and robust commercial aerospace demand, though recent weeks saw volatility.
- RTX benefits from a massive $268 billion backlog and diversified defense exposure, with steady 46% one-year gains but milder recent activity.
- All three stocks exhibit resilience in the aerospace and defense sector amid rising budgets, but HII trades at a relative valuation discount with lower P/E compared to peers.
- Recent market activity highlights supply chain pressures and contract wins influencing sentiment, with HWM and RTX showing higher growth sensitivity to commercial aviation recovery.
Introduction
This comparison examines HII, HWM, and RTX, key players in the aerospace and defense sector benefiting from increased military spending, naval modernization, and commercial aviation rebound. These stocks appeal to investors seeking exposure to stable defense backlogs alongside cyclical growth in aircraft production. Traders focused on relative performance may note their differing sensitivities to government contracts versus commercial demand, providing insights into sector rotation amid geopolitical tensions and supply chain dynamics. Understanding their business models, recent momentum, and valuations aids in assessing market positioning in the current environment.
HII Overview and Recent Performance
Huntington Ingalls Industries (HII) is the largest U.S. military shipbuilder, specializing in nuclear-powered aircraft carriers, submarines, amphibious assault ships, and destroyers through its Newport News and Ingalls segments, alongside mission technologies. Recent market activity reflects strong momentum from a $53.14 billion backlog, contract awards like the $95.7 million USS Nimitz deal, and workforce expansions with wage increases enhancing productivity. The stock has delivered robust YTD returns around 18.5% and 98% over one year, outperforming the S&P 500, though recent weeks showed some pullback amid broader volatility. Sentiment is bolstered by Q4 revenue growth of 16% to $3.5 billion and raised guidance for shipbuilding CAGR near 6%, despite cash flow cautions tied to contract timing.
HWM Overview and Recent Performance
Howmet Aerospace (HWM) provides advanced engineered components including engine products like airfoils and rings, fastening systems, engineered structures, and forged wheels for aerospace, defense, and transportation. In recent weeks, the stock navigated volatility with a roughly 8% pullback from peaks, yet maintained YTD gains near 18.5% and impressive 77% one-year returns, fueled by 11% annual revenue growth and margin expansion to 25%. Key influences include surging commercial aerospace demand, defense revenue up 24%, and Q4 results showing 15% revenue increase. Leadership enhancements and analyst targets around $275 underscore positive sentiment, though premium valuations reflect high growth expectations amid aircraft production ramps.
RTX Overview and Recent Performance
RTX Corporation (RTX), through Collins Aerospace, Pratt & Whitney, and Raytheon, delivers aircraft engines, avionics, missiles, and defense systems. Recent performance features steady gains with YTD around 6% and 46% over one year, supported by a $268 billion backlog and defense orders, despite supply chain hurdles in rare earths. Q4 earnings beat estimates with sales growth, and 2026 guidance projects 5.4% revenue rise and 8.3% EPS growth. Sentiment remains constructive amid a Zacks upgrade to Buy, with shares outperforming the industry over six months, though recent trading showed minor dips amid sector pressures.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
HII, HWM, and RTX operate in aerospace/defense but differ markedly: HII's shipbuilding model offers backlog stability ($53B) with lower cyclicality, contrasting HWM's high-margin components (ROE 28%) tied to engine/airframe demand, and RTX's diversified scale ($88B revenue, $268B backlog). Growth drivers favor HWM (11-15% revenue CAGR) from commercial aero, while HII and RTX lean on defense budgets. Recent momentum peaks for HII (18% YTD), with HWM volatile but superior long-term (509% 3-year). Risks include execution delays for HII, aviation cycles for HWM, and supply issues for RTX. Valuations show HII cheapest (P/E ~27), RTX mid (~40), HWM premium (~63); sentiment is bullish across amid sector tailwinds.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Tickeron’s AI currently favors HII for its trend consistency, undervaluation relative to peers, and defense catalysts like backlog growth amid naval demand. While HWM offers higher growth potential and RTX superior scale, HII's positioning suggests stronger probabilistic near-term outperformance based on observable momentum and sector patterns.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
HII’s FA Score shows that 3 FA rating(s) are green whileHWM’s FA Score has 4 green FA rating(s), and RTX’s FA Score reflects 1 green FA rating(s).
- HII’s FA Score: 3 green, 2 red.
- HWM’s FA Score: 4 green, 1 red.
- RTX’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
HII’s TA Score shows that 4 TA indicator(s) are bullish while HWM’s TA Score has 5 bullish TA indicator(s), and RTX’s TA Score reflects 6 bullish TA indicator(s).
- HII’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 6 bearish.
- HWM’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 4 bearish.
- RTX’s TA Score: 6 bullish, 4 bearish.
Price Growth
HII (@Aerospace & Defense) experienced а +0.10% price change this week, while HWM (@Aerospace & Defense) price change was +1.20% , and RTX (@Aerospace & Defense) price fluctuated -2.55% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Aerospace & Defense industry was +2.22%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +11.36%, and the average quarterly price growth was +30.07%.
Reported Earning Dates
HII is expected to report earnings on May 05, 2026.
HWM is expected to report earnings on May 07, 2026.
RTX is expected to report earnings on Apr 21, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Aerospace & Defense (+2.22% weekly)Aerospace & Defense is one of largest industries in the U.S., mainly comprising the following areas: commercial airliners, military aircraft, missiles, space, and general aviation. Focused heavily on research & development, it is also one of the fastest growing industries. Military aircraft has the largest market share in the industry’s sales, followed by space systems, civil aircraft, and missiles. Aerospace exports, directly and indirectly, support more jobs than the export of any other commodity, according to a study by the U.S. Department of Commerce. Boeing Company, Lockheed Martin Corporation and General Electric Company are some of the most prominent players in this space.
| HII | HWM | RTX | |
| Capitalization | 15.4B | 102B | 264B |
| EBITDA | 1.21B | 2.27B | 14.9B |
| Gain YTD | 16.459 | 24.786 | 7.110 |
| P/E Ratio | 25.48 | 68.90 | 39.47 |
| Revenue | 12.5B | 8.25B | 88.6B |
| Total Cash | 774M | 742M | 7.44B |
| Total Debt | 2.92B | 3.21B | 39.5B |
HII | HWM | RTX | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 50 | 50 | 50 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 15 Undervalued | 73 Overvalued | 41 Fair valued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 30 | 3 | 6 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 60 | 31 | 67 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 46 | 10 | 48 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 19 | 22 | 52 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 75 | 85 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
HII's Valuation (15) in the Aerospace And Defense industry is in the same range as RTX (41) in the null industry, and is somewhat better than the same rating for HWM (73) in the null industry. This means that HII's stock grew similarly to RTX’s and somewhat faster than HWM’s over the last 12 months.
HWM's Profit vs Risk Rating (3) in the null industry is in the same range as RTX (6) in the null industry, and is in the same range as HII (30) in the Aerospace And Defense industry. This means that HWM's stock grew similarly to RTX’s and similarly to HII’s over the last 12 months.
HWM's SMR Rating (31) in the null industry is in the same range as HII (60) in the Aerospace And Defense industry, and is somewhat better than the same rating for RTX (67) in the null industry. This means that HWM's stock grew similarly to HII’s and somewhat faster than RTX’s over the last 12 months.
HWM's Price Growth Rating (10) in the null industry is somewhat better than the same rating for HII (46) in the Aerospace And Defense industry, and is somewhat better than the same rating for RTX (48) in the null industry. This means that HWM's stock grew somewhat faster than HII’s and somewhat faster than RTX’s over the last 12 months.
HII's P/E Growth Rating (19) in the Aerospace And Defense industry is in the same range as HWM (22) in the null industry, and is somewhat better than the same rating for RTX (52) in the null industry. This means that HII's stock grew similarly to HWM’s and somewhat faster than RTX’s over the last 12 months.
| HII | HWM | RTX | |
|---|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 64% | N/A | 4 days ago 71% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 53% | 4 days ago 54% | 4 days ago 67% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 58% | 4 days ago 76% | 4 days ago 60% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 66% | 4 days ago 76% | 4 days ago 57% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 62% | 4 days ago 72% | 4 days ago 45% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 53% | 4 days ago 70% | 4 days ago 44% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 6 days ago 60% | 7 days ago 70% | 15 days ago 64% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 55% | 5 days ago 51% | 5 days ago 42% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 56% | 4 days ago 53% | 4 days ago 81% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 58% | 4 days ago 42% | 4 days ago 32% |
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HWM and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, HWM has been closely correlated with GE. These tickers have moved in lockstep 72% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if HWM jumps, then GE could also see price increases.
RTX and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, RTX has been loosely correlated with NOC. These tickers have moved in lockstep 58% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if RTX jumps, then NOC could also see price increases.