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HMC or TM or TOYOF
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Honda Motor Co. (HMC) vs. Toyota Motor Corporation (TM) vs. Toyota Motor Corporation (TOYOF) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- HMC trades at a low P/E of around 10 with a high dividend yield of 5.8%, but has underperformed YTD at -18% amid EV strategy shifts and sales declines.
- TM, the NYSE-listed Toyota ADR, boasts a larger market cap of $223B and YTD return of 12%, supported by hybrid strength and hydrogen initiatives.
- TOYOF, Toyota's OTC shares, mirrors TM fundamentals with similar valuation (P/E 10.6) but lower liquidity and slight YTD lag at 11.5%.
- All three face tariff pressures and China competition, yet Japanese automakers benefit from hybrid demand over pure EVs in recent market activity.
- TM shows superior scale and relative stability, while HMC offers value for income-focused investors.
Introduction
This comparison examines HMC, TM, and TOYOF, three prominent Japanese automakers navigating a shifting global landscape. Honda Motor Co. and Toyota Motor Corporation (via its NYSE ADR and OTC listings) compete in motorcycles, vehicles, and power products amid rising tariffs, EV transitions, and hybrid popularity. Traders seeking relative performance insights and investors eyeing valuation in the auto sector will find value here, particularly as recent weeks highlight contrasts in momentum, scale, and strategic adaptations to market pressures like U.S. trade policies and China competition.
HMC Overview and Recent Performance
Honda Motor Co. (HMC), a multinational manufacturer of automobiles, motorcycles, and power equipment, operates across four segments: motorcycles, automobiles, financial services, and power products. With a market cap of approximately $31B, it emphasizes reliability and innovation in hybrids and EVs. In recent market activity, HMC shares have traded near the lower end of their 52-week range ($23.25-$34.89), reflecting pressures from EV strategy reviews, a cut in FY26 outlook, and Q1 U.S. sales declines of 4.2%. Sentiment has softened due to halted merger talks with Nissan, reduced China output, and South Korea sales discontinuation, contributing to YTD underperformance versus benchmarks like the Nikkei 225. Trading at a P/E of about 10 and dividend yield over 5.8%, it appeals to value seekers despite near-term headwinds.
TM Overview and Recent Performance
Toyota Motor Corporation (TM), the NYSE-listed ADR, leads globally in vehicle production, spanning passenger cars, trucks, hybrids, and financial services, with a massive $223B market cap. Known for its hybrid dominance—now 35-40% of sales—it balances EV investments with hydrogen fuel cells. Recent weeks saw TM shares consolidate within a $167-$249 range, posting a solid YTD return of 12.4% amid Nikkei strength. Positive catalysts include hydrogen truck collaborations, executive realignments, and India expansion plans, offsetting tariff concerns and China warnings. At a P/E near 10.6 and 3% dividend yield, performance reflects resilient hybrid demand and global diversification, though recent dips tie to broader auto sector volatility.
TOYOF Overview and Recent Performance
Toyota Motor Corporation's OTC listing (TOYOF) provides U.S. access to the same underlying business as TM, focusing on autos, hybrids, and emerging tech like fuel cells, backed by the firm's $223B market cap. Shares trade in a $15.60-$25 range with lower volume, mirroring TM's dynamics but with OTC illiquidity. Recent activity shows YTD gains of 11.6%, trailing the benchmark slightly, influenced by shared factors: hydrogen advancements, trade deal worries, and strong hybrid sales. Valuation aligns closely (P/E ~10.6, yield ~3.1%), but thinner trading amplifies volatility from sector news like U.S. tariffs. It suits investors comfortable with OTC exposure to Toyota's scale.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
HMC ($31B cap) trails in scale versus TM and TOYOF ($223B), with business models emphasizing motorcycles alongside autos, while Toyota prioritizes hybrids (50%+ sales target). Growth drivers favor Toyota's hydrogen and India expansions over Honda's EV pivots. Recent momentum shows TM leading YTD at 12%, TOYOF close behind, and HMC lagging due to sales drops. Risks include tariffs (USMCA renewal key) and China exposure for all, with HMC's higher debt/equity amplifying sensitivity. Valuations are attractive (P/E ~10, EV/EBITDA 5-8), but Toyota's lower beta (0.33) signals stability. Sentiment tilts to Toyota's hybrid edge amid EV slowdowns.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Tickeron’s AI would currently favor TM among the three, owing to its trend consistency, larger scale, hybrid catalysts, and superior YTD positioning relative to HMC's headwinds and TOYOF's liquidity constraints. While probabilities favor TM for outperformance in volatile auto markets, HMC offers income appeal.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
HMC’s FA Score shows that 1 FA rating(s) are green whileTM’s FA Score has 2 green FA rating(s), and TOYOF’s FA Score reflects 2 green FA rating(s).
- HMC’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- TM’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
- TOYOF’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
HMC’s TA Score shows that 3 TA indicator(s) are bullish while TM’s TA Score has 4 bullish TA indicator(s), and TOYOF’s TA Score reflects 4 bullish TA indicator(s).
- HMC’s TA Score: 3 bullish, 4 bearish.
- TM’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 5 bearish.
- TOYOF’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 4 bearish.
Price Growth
HMC (@Motor Vehicles) experienced а -0.21% price change this week, while TM (@Motor Vehicles) price change was -4.38% , and TOYOF (@Motor Vehicles) price fluctuated -2.50% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Motor Vehicles industry was +3.34%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +0.49%, and the average quarterly price growth was -13.14%.
Reported Earning Dates
HMC is expected to report earnings on May 14, 2026.
TM is expected to report earnings on Jul 30, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Motor Vehicles (+3.34% weekly)Automobiles continue to be arguably the most popular form of passenger travel in the U.S., and major automobile makers have revenues and market capitalizations running into multi-billions. In recent years, the industry has been experiencing some path-breaking innovations like electric vehicles and self-driving technology. While there are long-standing companies like General Motors, Ford, and Toyota Motors operating in this space, there are also emerging/rapidly growing players like Tesla – which has had a major role in the growing popularity of the electric vehicle market. With technological advancements taking steam in the auto space, we’ve also witnessed collaborations (or talks of potential partnerships) of carmakers with tech behemoths like Google’s subsidiary, Waymo.
| HMC | TM | TOYOF | |
| Capitalization | 31.2B | 215B | 215B |
| EBITDA | 1.77T | 7.63T | 7.63T |
| Gain YTD | -18.216 | -15.131 | -13.097 |
| P/E Ratio | 10.10 | 9.65 | 9.83 |
| Revenue | 21.34T | 50.69T | 50.69T |
| Total Cash | 5.04T | 16.64T | 16.64T |
| Total Debt | N/A | 43.21T | 43.21T |
HMC | TM | TOYOF | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 12 | 51 | 87 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 85 Overvalued | 27 Undervalued | 28 Undervalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 100 | 75 | 78 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 77 | 65 | 65 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 81 | 82 | 81 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 18 | 27 | 24 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 50 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
TM's Valuation (27) in the Motor Vehicles industry is in the same range as TOYOF (28) in the null industry, and is somewhat better than the same rating for HMC (85) in the Motor Vehicles industry. This means that TM's stock grew similarly to TOYOF’s and somewhat faster than HMC’s over the last 12 months.
TM's Profit vs Risk Rating (75) in the Motor Vehicles industry is in the same range as TOYOF (78) in the null industry, and is in the same range as HMC (100) in the Motor Vehicles industry. This means that TM's stock grew similarly to TOYOF’s and similarly to HMC’s over the last 12 months.
TM's SMR Rating (65) in the Motor Vehicles industry is in the same range as TOYOF (65) in the null industry, and is in the same range as HMC (77) in the Motor Vehicles industry. This means that TM's stock grew similarly to TOYOF’s and similarly to HMC’s over the last 12 months.
TOYOF's Price Growth Rating (81) in the null industry is in the same range as HMC (81) in the Motor Vehicles industry, and is in the same range as TM (82) in the Motor Vehicles industry. This means that TOYOF's stock grew similarly to HMC’s and similarly to TM’s over the last 12 months.
HMC's P/E Growth Rating (18) in the Motor Vehicles industry is in the same range as TOYOF (24) in the null industry, and is in the same range as TM (27) in the Motor Vehicles industry. This means that HMC's stock grew similarly to TOYOF’s and similarly to TM’s over the last 12 months.
| HMC | TM | TOYOF | |
|---|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 5 days ago 65% | 2 days ago 54% | N/A |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 51% | 2 days ago 61% | 2 days ago 63% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 54% | 2 days ago 45% | 2 days ago 80% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | N/A | 2 days ago 51% | 2 days ago 75% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 54% | 2 days ago 49% | 2 days ago 74% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 54% | 2 days ago 47% | 2 days ago 72% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 7 days ago 50% | 7 days ago 56% | 7 days ago 71% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 9 days ago 55% | 2 days ago 50% | 2 days ago 74% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 50% | 2 days ago 67% | 2 days ago 63% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 58% | 2 days ago 46% | 2 days ago 75% |
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TM and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, TM has been closely correlated with TOYOF. These tickers have moved in lockstep 83% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if TM jumps, then TOYOF could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To TM | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TM | 100% | -1.16% | ||
| TOYOF - TM | 83% Closely correlated | -1.67% | ||
| HMC - TM | 73% Closely correlated | +0.54% | ||
| FUJHY - TM | 66% Closely correlated | -1.49% | ||
| MZDAY - TM | 59% Loosely correlated | +2.22% | ||
| NSANY - TM | 49% Loosely correlated | -1.56% | ||
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TOYOF and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, TOYOF has been closely correlated with TM. These tickers have moved in lockstep 84% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if TOYOF jumps, then TM could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To TOYOF | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOYOF | 100% | -1.67% | ||
| TM - TOYOF | 84% Closely correlated | -1.16% | ||
| FUJHY - TOYOF | 59% Loosely correlated | -1.49% | ||
| HMC - TOYOF | 58% Loosely correlated | +0.54% | ||
| MZDAY - TOYOF | 49% Loosely correlated | +2.22% | ||
| NSANY - TOYOF | 40% Loosely correlated | -1.56% | ||
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