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HSY or KDP or TGT
Which Stock Would AI Choose? The Hershey Company (HSY) vs. Keurig Dr Pepper (KDP) vs. Target Corporation (TGT) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- HSY leads with strong YTD gains around 19%, driven by resilient confectionery demand and positive earnings outlook, trading near $215.
- KDP shows modest YTD performance at about 5-6%, with recent Q4 sales growth of 10.5% but facing coffee cost pressures and labor issues, around $26.
- TGT delivers solid YTD returns near 20%, bolstered by Q4 earnings beat and 2026 sales growth guidance of ~2%, trading about $116.
- Consumer staples like HSY and KDP offer defensive stability, while retailer TGT provides growth potential amid improving traffic.
- Recent volatility shows HSY and TGT outperforming broader indices, contrasting KDP's softer momentum.
- All three exhibit positive analyst revisions, with HSY holding Zacks #1 Strong Buy rank.
Introduction
This stock comparison examines HSY, a leading confectionery giant, KDP, a major beverage player, and TGT, a prominent discount retailer. These companies span consumer staples and retail sectors, offering insights into defensive versus cyclical exposures in the current market. Traders seeking relative performance amid volatility and investors eyeing stability with growth potential will find value here. Recent earnings beats, guidance updates, and price trends highlight contrasts in momentum, valuation sensitivity, and sector dynamics, aiding informed positioning in a mixed economic backdrop.
HSY Overview and Recent Performance
The Hershey Company (HSY) manufactures and sells confectionery, snacks, and pantry items globally, with strong brands driving North American dominance. In recent market activity, HSY shares have demonstrated resilience, closing around $215 after a 2.39% daily gain that outpaced the S&P 500. Year-to-date returns exceed 19%, surpassing broader indices, fueled by Q4 earnings beats, strategic U.S. business unification, and salty snacks expansion. Analysts project Q1 EPS of $2.05 and full-year growth of 30%, with a Zacks #1 Strong Buy rating reflecting upward revisions and brand strength amid volatility. Sentiment benefits from pricing power offsetting input costs, though longer-term 3-year returns lag due to prior pressures.
KDP Overview and Recent Performance
Keurig Dr Pepper (KDP) produces beverages and brewing systems, operating in U.S. refreshment, coffee, and international segments with brands like Dr Pepper and Green Mountain. Recent weeks saw shares dip to around $26, with YTD gains at 5.65% amid mixed signals. Q4 2025 net sales rose 10.5% to $4.50 billion, driven by U.S. Refreshment Beverages growth and GHOST acquisition, meeting guidance with 8.2% full-year increase. However, U.S. Coffee faced cyclical costs and inventory adjustments, compounded by labor strike risks. 2026 outlook targets 4-6% sales growth and low-double-digit EPS expansion, including JDE Peet's potential. Performance reflects volume/mix gains but sensitivity to commodity inflation tempers sentiment.
TGT Overview and Recent Performance
Target Corporation (TGT) operates general merchandise stores emphasizing essentials, apparel, and food via physical and digital channels. Shares trade near $116, with YTD returns around 20% amid retail recovery signs. Q4 2025 adjusted EPS hit $2.44, beating estimates despite 1.5% sales dip to $30.45 billion and 2.5% comparable decline, as traffic improved late-quarter in food, beauty, and toys. Full-year sales fell nearly 2%, but 2026 guidance projects ~2% growth quarterly and EPS of $7.50-$8.50. Momentum stems from merchandising, digital gains, and advertising, though discretionary weakness lingers, supporting outperformance versus peers.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
HSY and KDP anchor consumer staples with defensive models reliant on branded essentials, contrasting TGT's cyclical retail exposure to traffic and spending. Growth drivers differ: HSY leverages pricing and snacks, KDP volume in beverages plus acquisitions, TGT digital/merchandising amid essentials focus. Recent momentum favors HSY and TGT with ~19-20% YTD versus KDP's 5-6%. Risks include input costs for staples duo and consumer caution for TGT. Valuation sensitivity heightens for TGT on macros, while staples show stability. Sentiment tilts positive on earnings momentum, with HSY's Strong Buy edge.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Tickeron’s AI currently favors HSY due to superior trend consistency, Zacks #1 ranking, 19%+ YTD outperformance, and robust EPS outlook amid staples resilience. TGT follows closely with growth guidance, while KDP lags on softer momentum. Observable catalysts like earnings beats position HSY for relative strength, though sector rotations could shift probabilities.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full Disclaimers and Limitations.
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
HSY’s FA Score shows that 1 FA rating(s) are green whileKDP’s FA Score has 1 green FA rating(s), and TGT’s FA Score reflects 2 green FA rating(s).
- HSY’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- KDP’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- TGT’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
HSY’s TA Score shows that 4 TA indicator(s) are bullish while KDP’s TA Score has 6 bullish TA indicator(s), and TGT’s TA Score reflects 4 bullish TA indicator(s).
- HSY’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 6 bearish.
- KDP’s TA Score: 6 bullish, 4 bearish.
- TGT’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 3 bearish.
Price Growth
HSY (@Food: Specialty/Candy) experienced а +2.26% price change this week, while KDP (@Beverages: Non-Alcoholic) price change was +4.39% , and TGT (@Discount Stores) price fluctuated +2.97% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Food: Specialty/Candy industry was +2.89%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +0.38%, and the average quarterly price growth was +6.38%.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Beverages: Non-Alcoholic industry was +2.02%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -3.13%, and the average quarterly price growth was +164976.25%.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Discount Stores industry was +0.71%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -1.87%, and the average quarterly price growth was +11.43%.
Reported Earning Dates
HSY is expected to report earnings on Apr 30, 2026.
KDP is expected to report earnings on Apr 23, 2026.
TGT is expected to report earnings on May 20, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Food: Specialty/Candy (+2.89% weekly)A specialty/candy manufacturer specializes in one or more of the following: chocolate, candies, pasta, condiments, seasonings, among other items. Hershey Company, McCormick & Company and J.M. Smucker Company are some of the major firms in this segment. Demand for this industry’s products comes from both institutions/restaurants as well as households.
@Beverages: Non-Alcoholic (+2.02% weekly)Non-alcoholic drinks include traces of alcohol or low alcohol content or without alcohol or alcohol removed. Functional Beverages, Carbonated Soft Drinks (CSDs), Sports Drinks, Fruit Beverages, and Bottled Water are some common types of non-alcoholic beverages. The largest segment in this market is soft drinks (think Pepsi and Coke). Many established companies in this space have also been stepping up production of low to zero-calorie varieties in recent years, to cater to a rising number of health-conscious consumers. Coca-Cola Company, Pepsico Inc, Keurig Dr Pepper Inc. and Monster Beverage Corporation are some major non-alcoholic beverage makers.
@Discount Stores (+0.71% weekly)Companies in the discount stores industry specialize in offering substantial discounts on a vast array of retail products. Some companies in this industry also operate general merchandise warehouse clubs. Products sold at discount stores are typically similar to those of any department store, but the pricing of the goods is generally much lower (and hence the name “discount”). Think Dollar General Corporation, Dollar Tree, Inc. and Five Below, Inc. Many discount stores target low-income households and/or price-sensitive consumers as their potential market. Discount stores’ profitability could hinge on factors like competitive pricing, sufficient locations, healthy revenue per square foot, and effective advertisement. These store operators could have an edge over other retailers during financial crises or recessions, when many consumers could be looking for less expensive alternatives.
| HSY | KDP | TGT | |
| Capitalization | 42.7B | 35.9B | 56.2B |
| EBITDA | 1.94B | 4.19B | 8.4B |
| Gain YTD | 16.620 | -4.056 | 28.175 |
| P/E Ratio | 48.58 | 17.27 | 15.26 |
| Revenue | 11.7B | 16.6B | 105B |
| Total Cash | 926M | N/A | 1.04B |
| Total Debt | 5.74B | 17.6B | 20B |
HSY | KDP | TGT | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 5 | 61 | 9 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 38 Fair valued | 25 Undervalued | 60 Fair valued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 61 | 100 | 100 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 45 | 74 | 37 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 49 | 62 | 18 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 5 | 94 | 25 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 50 | n/a |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
KDP's Valuation (25) in the Beverages Non Alcoholic industry is in the same range as HSY (38) in the Food Specialty Or Candy industry, and is somewhat better than the same rating for TGT (60) in the Specialty Stores industry. This means that KDP's stock grew similarly to HSY’s and somewhat faster than TGT’s over the last 12 months.
HSY's Profit vs Risk Rating (61) in the Food Specialty Or Candy industry is somewhat better than the same rating for KDP (100) in the Beverages Non Alcoholic industry, and is somewhat better than the same rating for TGT (100) in the Specialty Stores industry. This means that HSY's stock grew somewhat faster than KDP’s and somewhat faster than TGT’s over the last 12 months.
TGT's SMR Rating (37) in the Specialty Stores industry is in the same range as HSY (45) in the Food Specialty Or Candy industry, and is somewhat better than the same rating for KDP (74) in the Beverages Non Alcoholic industry. This means that TGT's stock grew similarly to HSY’s and somewhat faster than KDP’s over the last 12 months.
TGT's Price Growth Rating (18) in the Specialty Stores industry is in the same range as HSY (49) in the Food Specialty Or Candy industry, and is somewhat better than the same rating for KDP (62) in the Beverages Non Alcoholic industry. This means that TGT's stock grew similarly to HSY’s and somewhat faster than KDP’s over the last 12 months.
HSY's P/E Growth Rating (5) in the Food Specialty Or Candy industry is in the same range as TGT (25) in the Specialty Stores industry, and is significantly better than the same rating for KDP (94) in the Beverages Non Alcoholic industry. This means that HSY's stock grew similarly to TGT’s and significantly faster than KDP’s over the last 12 months.
| HSY | KDP | TGT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 66% | 1 day ago 68% | N/A |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 66% | 1 day ago 46% | 1 day ago 61% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 45% | 1 day ago 40% | 1 day ago 66% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 48% | 1 day ago 45% | 1 day ago 61% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 59% | 1 day ago 44% | 1 day ago 67% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 52% | 1 day ago 43% | 1 day ago 68% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 64% | 1 day ago 49% | 1 day ago 67% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 9 days ago 54% | 8 days ago 45% | 21 days ago 64% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 60% | 3 days ago 65% | 1 day ago 71% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 57% | 1 day ago 35% | 1 day ago 52% |
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HSY and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, HSY has been loosely correlated with KHC. These tickers have moved in lockstep 58% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if HSY jumps, then KHC could also see price increases.
KDP and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, KDP has been loosely correlated with PEP. These tickers have moved in lockstep 51% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if KDP jumps, then PEP could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To KDP | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| KDP | 100% | +2.24% | ||
| PEP - KDP | 51% Loosely correlated | +1.74% | ||
| KO - KDP | 49% Loosely correlated | +1.15% | ||
| FIZZ - KDP | 42% Loosely correlated | +2.34% | ||
| MNST - KDP | 34% Loosely correlated | +1.40% | ||
| CCEP - KDP | 32% Poorly correlated | +0.49% | ||
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