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HSY or KDP or WMT
Which Stock Would AI Choose? The Hershey Company (HSY) vs. Keurig Dr Pepper (KDP) vs. Walmart (WMT) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- HSY leads YTD performance at approximately 18%, buoyed by strong earnings outlook and operational streamlining in recent market activity.
- WMT shows solid YTD gains around 11-12%, driven by resilient retail demand and e-commerce growth amid broader sector volatility.
- KDP lags with negative YTD returns near -4%, facing monthly declines of over 12% due to cost pressures despite acquisition progress.
- All three trade at premium valuations in the consumer staples space, with HSY P/E (price-to-earnings ratio) around 49x, WMT at 45x, and KDP the lowest at 17x.
- WMT boasts the largest market cap over $980B, offering scale advantages, while HSY and KDP focus on niche confectionery and beverages.
- Recent sentiment favors defensive plays like these amid market uncertainty, with relative strength in momentum for HSY and WMT.
Introduction
This stock comparison examines HSY, KDP, and WMT, key players in the consumer staples and retail sectors. These companies offer defensive exposure to essential goods like confectionery, beverages, and everyday groceries, appealing to investors seeking stability in volatile markets. Traders focused on relative performance, valuation sensitivity, and momentum shifts will find value in analyzing their recent trajectories, business models, and sector positioning. With broader economic pressures influencing consumer behavior, understanding their comparative strengths aids informed decision-making in stock selection and portfolio allocation.
HSY Overview and Recent Performance
The Hershey Company (HSY) is a leading confectioner known for brands like Hershey's chocolate and Reese's. In recent weeks, HSY shares have exhibited resilience, posting YTD gains of about 18% and trading around $214 with a market cap near $43B. Performance has been supported by a projected 30% EPS (earnings per share) growth this year, operational unification of U.S. businesses to streamline sweet, salty, and protein portfolios, and benefits from prior price hikes offsetting cocoa costs. Sentiment remains positive despite monthly dips around 8%, with analysts noting strong demand for snacks and a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy), outperforming the S&P 500 YTD.
KDP Overview and Recent Performance
Keurig Dr Pepper (KDP) operates in beverages, offering soft drinks, coffee systems, and brands like Dr Pepper and Keurig brewers. Recent market activity has pressured shares, down over 12% monthly and nearly 5% YTD, trading near $26 with a $36B market cap. Key developments include an unconditional takeover of JDE Peet's with 96% shares tendered and plans for a coffee spin-off in April 2026. Q4 results beat estimates with 10.5% sales growth, but cost challenges and volume pressures have weighed on momentum. Forward P/E around 12x suggests relative value, though shares underperform peers amid sector caution.
WMT Overview and Recent Performance
Walmart (WMT) dominates discount retail with groceries, e-commerce, and membership warehouses via Sam's Club. Shares have advanced 11-12% YTD, closing around $123 with a massive $985B market cap. Recent weeks reflect steady gains amid volatility, supported by e-commerce strength, grocery dominance, and analyst upgrades. Q3 showed improving margins at 3.3% net and 4.4% revenue growth, with e-commerce and international segments bolstering performance. Trading at a 45x P/E, WMT benefits from scale and consumer resilience, outperforming the sector in relative stability.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
HSY, KDP, and WMT operate in consumer staples but diverge in models: HSY's branded confectionery emphasizes pricing power against commodity volatility like cocoa; KDP's beverages blend refreshment and coffee pods, pursuing M&A (mergers and acquisitions) for growth amid spin-off transitions; WMT's retail giant leverages volume and omnichannel for essentials. Growth drivers include HSY's snack expansion, KDP's international push, and WMT's e-commerce scale. Recent momentum favors HSY and WMT over KDP's dips. Risks: input costs for HSY/KDP, margin squeezes for WMT. Valuations show KDP cheapest at 17x P/E versus 45-49x for others; all sensitive to staples sector premiums. Sentiment tilts to scale and consistency in WMT.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Tickeron’s AI currently favors WMT based on superior trend consistency, massive scale providing stability, positive YTD momentum outpacing peers, and strong e-commerce catalysts positioning it well in consumer staples. While HSY shows robust relative performance and KDP offers valuation appeal, WMT's broader market positioning and lower volatility suggest higher probability of outperformance in the near term under current conditions.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer. Disclaimers and Limitations
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
HSY’s FA Score shows that 1 FA rating(s) are green whileKDP’s FA Score has 1 green FA rating(s), and WMT’s FA Score reflects 2 green FA rating(s).
- HSY’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- KDP’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- WMT’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
HSY’s TA Score shows that 4 TA indicator(s) are bullish while KDP’s TA Score has 4 bullish TA indicator(s), and WMT’s TA Score reflects 5 bullish TA indicator(s).
- HSY’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 4 bearish.
- KDP’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 4 bearish.
- WMT’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 4 bearish.
Price Growth
HSY (@Food: Specialty/Candy) experienced а -4.78% price change this week, while KDP (@Beverages: Non-Alcoholic) price change was -0.15% , and WMT (@Discount Stores) price fluctuated +0.58% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Food: Specialty/Candy industry was -2.68%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -2.45%, and the average quarterly price growth was +1.01%.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Beverages: Non-Alcoholic industry was -0.77%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -1.88%, and the average quarterly price growth was +2073.90%.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Discount Stores industry was +2.34%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +2.71%, and the average quarterly price growth was +7.10%.
Reported Earning Dates
HSY is expected to report earnings on Apr 30, 2026.
KDP is expected to report earnings on Apr 23, 2026.
WMT is expected to report earnings on May 14, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Food: Specialty/Candy (-2.68% weekly)A specialty/candy manufacturer specializes in one or more of the following: chocolate, candies, pasta, condiments, seasonings, among other items. Hershey Company, McCormick & Company and J.M. Smucker Company are some of the major firms in this segment. Demand for this industry’s products comes from both institutions/restaurants as well as households.
@Beverages: Non-Alcoholic (-0.77% weekly)Non-alcoholic drinks include traces of alcohol or low alcohol content or without alcohol or alcohol removed. Functional Beverages, Carbonated Soft Drinks (CSDs), Sports Drinks, Fruit Beverages, and Bottled Water are some common types of non-alcoholic beverages. The largest segment in this market is soft drinks (think Pepsi and Coke). Many established companies in this space have also been stepping up production of low to zero-calorie varieties in recent years, to cater to a rising number of health-conscious consumers. Coca-Cola Company, Pepsico Inc, Keurig Dr Pepper Inc. and Monster Beverage Corporation are some major non-alcoholic beverage makers.
@Discount Stores (+2.34% weekly)Companies in the discount stores industry specialize in offering substantial discounts on a vast array of retail products. Some companies in this industry also operate general merchandise warehouse clubs. Products sold at discount stores are typically similar to those of any department store, but the pricing of the goods is generally much lower (and hence the name “discount”). Think Dollar General Corporation, Dollar Tree, Inc. and Five Below, Inc. Many discount stores target low-income households and/or price-sensitive consumers as their potential market. Discount stores’ profitability could hinge on factors like competitive pricing, sufficient locations, healthy revenue per square foot, and effective advertisement. These store operators could have an edge over other retailers during financial crises or recessions, when many consumers could be looking for less expensive alternatives.
| HSY | KDP | WMT | |
| Capitalization | 39B | 36B | 1.02T |
| EBITDA | 1.94B | 4.19B | 46.5B |
| Gain YTD | 6.547 | -3.656 | 14.677 |
| P/E Ratio | 44.38 | 17.34 | 46.70 |
| Revenue | 11.7B | 16.6B | 713B |
| Total Cash | 926M | N/A | 10.7B |
| Total Debt | 5.74B | 17.6B | 67.1B |
HSY | KDP | WMT | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 7 | 11 | 33 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 34 Fair valued | 25 Undervalued | 92 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 71 | 100 | 6 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 46 | 75 | 40 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 59 | 61 | 24 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 7 | 95 | 42 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 50 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
KDP's Valuation (25) in the Beverages Non Alcoholic industry is in the same range as HSY (34) in the Food Specialty Or Candy industry, and is significantly better than the same rating for WMT (92) in the Specialty Stores industry. This means that KDP's stock grew similarly to HSY’s and significantly faster than WMT’s over the last 12 months.
WMT's Profit vs Risk Rating (6) in the Specialty Stores industry is somewhat better than the same rating for HSY (71) in the Food Specialty Or Candy industry, and is significantly better than the same rating for KDP (100) in the Beverages Non Alcoholic industry. This means that WMT's stock grew somewhat faster than HSY’s and significantly faster than KDP’s over the last 12 months.
WMT's SMR Rating (40) in the Specialty Stores industry is in the same range as HSY (46) in the Food Specialty Or Candy industry, and is somewhat better than the same rating for KDP (75) in the Beverages Non Alcoholic industry. This means that WMT's stock grew similarly to HSY’s and somewhat faster than KDP’s over the last 12 months.
WMT's Price Growth Rating (24) in the Specialty Stores industry is somewhat better than the same rating for HSY (59) in the Food Specialty Or Candy industry, and is somewhat better than the same rating for KDP (61) in the Beverages Non Alcoholic industry. This means that WMT's stock grew somewhat faster than HSY’s and somewhat faster than KDP’s over the last 12 months.
HSY's P/E Growth Rating (7) in the Food Specialty Or Candy industry is somewhat better than the same rating for WMT (42) in the Specialty Stores industry, and is significantly better than the same rating for KDP (95) in the Beverages Non Alcoholic industry. This means that HSY's stock grew somewhat faster than WMT’s and significantly faster than KDP’s over the last 12 months.
| HSY | KDP | WMT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 53% | 3 days ago 61% | N/A |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 66% | 3 days ago 43% | 3 days ago 29% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | N/A | 3 days ago 39% | 3 days ago 59% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | N/A | 3 days ago 55% | 3 days ago 66% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 55% | 3 days ago 47% | 3 days ago 55% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 53% | 3 days ago 43% | 3 days ago 53% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 11 days ago 64% | 3 days ago 49% | 3 days ago 55% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 56% | 5 days ago 46% | 7 days ago 34% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 70% | N/A | 3 days ago 41% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 57% | 3 days ago 35% | 3 days ago 25% |
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HSY and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, HSY has been loosely correlated with KHC. These tickers have moved in lockstep 58% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if HSY jumps, then KHC could also see price increases.
WMT and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, WMT has been loosely correlated with COST. These tickers have moved in lockstep 66% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if WMT jumps, then COST could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To WMT | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WMT | 100% | +2.15% | ||
| COST - WMT | 66% Loosely correlated | +1.28% | ||
| BJ - WMT | 38% Loosely correlated | -0.18% | ||
| PSMT - WMT | 36% Loosely correlated | +3.26% | ||
| TGT - WMT | 30% Poorly correlated | +3.17% | ||
| TBBB - WMT | 21% Poorly correlated | +2.19% | ||
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