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HSY or MDLZ or PEP
Which Stock Would AI Choose? The Hershey Company (HSY) vs. Mondelez International (MDLZ) vs. PepsiCo (PEP) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- HSY leads with over 20% YTD gains, fueled by salty snacks expansion and Q4 earnings beats, though trading at a premium P/E above 50x.
- MDLZ shows modest YTD performance around 2%, with Q4 revenue growth of 9.3% but pressured by cocoa costs and volume declines.
- PEP delivers steady 11-13% YTD returns, supported by diversified beverages/snacks, Q4 revenue acceleration to 5.6%, and reliable dividends.
- Recent earnings across all three beat expectations, highlighting resilience in consumer staples amid input cost volatility.
- Valuations differ: HSY P/E ~50x, MDLZ ~29x, PEP ~27x, reflecting growth trade-offs in momentum vs. stability.
- Sector tailwinds favor defensive plays like these amid market rotations, with AI bots spotting opportunities in consumer staples.
Introduction
This stock comparison examines HSY, MDLZ, and PEP, leading consumer staples firms in confectionery, snacks, and beverages. These stocks offer defensive exposure amid economic uncertainty, appealing to long-term investors seeking stability and dividend income, as well as traders eyeing relative performance and sector rotations. Recent quarters highlight contrasts in growth drivers like salty snacks expansion versus input cost pressures from cocoa, providing insights into market positioning and potential trade-offs in the current environment.
HSY Overview and Recent Performance
The Hershey Company (HSY) is a dominant North American confectionery leader, with iconic brands like Reese's and expanding into salty snacks via acquisitions such as LesserEvil and Dot's Pretzels. Shares have surged over 20% YTD, outperforming peers amid recent market activity. In Q4 2025, revenue reached $3.09 billion, up 7%, beating estimates by 3%, with adjusted EPS of $1.71 topping forecasts by 22% despite cocoa headwinds. Sentiment has improved on analyst upgrades to Strong Buy, 18.6% earnings estimate hikes, and 2026 guidance of $8.20-$8.52 EPS, signaling margin recovery. Short-term pullbacks in recent weeks reflect broader volatility, but salty snacks momentum—up 28% in North America—and product launches bolster upward trends.
MDLZ Overview and Recent Performance
Mondelez International (MDLZ) specializes in global snacks including Oreo, Cadbury, and Milka, with a focus on emerging markets. Shares have posted modest ~2% YTD gains, lagging amid cocoa volatility and volume softness. Q4 2025 net revenues grew 9.3% to $10.5 billion, surpassing estimates by 2%, driven by pricing; adjusted EPS of $0.72 rose 4.6% constant currency, beating by 3.3%. Full-year organic growth hit 4.3%, though volume/mix fell 3.7%. Recent market activity shows pressure from input costs, with shares down in recent months, but undervaluation signals (~18%) and acquisitions like Evirth support long-term positioning. Analyst targets reflect cautious optimism amid consumer shifts.
PEP Overview and Recent Performance
PepsiCo (PEP) operates diversified beverages (Pepsi, Gatorade) and snacks (Frito-Lay, Quaker), with strong international footprint. YTD returns stand at 11-13%, reflecting stability despite North America volume dips. Q4 2025 revenue accelerated 5.6% to $29.34 billion, beating by 1.3%, with core EPS of $2.26 up 11% constant currency, topping estimates by 0.9%. Organic growth of 2.1% stemmed from 4.5% pricing, offset by 2% volume decline. Recent weeks show softer momentum with monthly dips, influenced by affordability focus and innovations like protein snacks. Dividend hikes (54th year) and $10B buyback enhance appeal, driving positive sentiment in volatile conditions.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
HSY, MDLZ, and PEP operate in overlapping consumer staples, but diverge in business models: HSY emphasizes North America confectionery/salty snacks, MDLZ global biscuits/chocolate, and PEP balanced beverages/snacks with international scale. Growth drivers contrast salty snacks momentum for HSY (28% Q4 surge) against MDLZ's emerging markets pricing and PEP's innovations like protein lines. Recent momentum favors HSY (20%+ YTD), with PEP stable and MDLZ lagging. Risk factors include cocoa costs hitting HSY/MDLZ harder than PEP's diversification; valuations show HSY premium P/E (~50x) vs. MDLZ (29x)/PEP (27x). Sentiment tilts positive on HSY upgrades, while all benefit from defensive sector exposure.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Tickeron’s AI currently favors HSY due to superior trend consistency, strongest YTD momentum (20%+), and catalysts like salty snacks growth amid recent earnings beats and upgrades. While PEP offers stability and MDLZ value, HSY's relative positioning in consumer staples rotations suggests higher probability of near-term outperformance, though valuation risks temper conviction.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer. Disclaimers and Limitations
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
HSY’s FA Score shows that 1 FA rating(s) are green whileMDLZ’s FA Score has 2 green FA rating(s), and PEP’s FA Score reflects 3 green FA rating(s).
- HSY’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- MDLZ’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
- PEP’s FA Score: 3 green, 2 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
HSY’s TA Score shows that 4 TA indicator(s) are bullish while MDLZ’s TA Score has 4 bullish TA indicator(s), and PEP’s TA Score reflects 5 bullish TA indicator(s).
- HSY’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 4 bearish.
- MDLZ’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 5 bearish.
- PEP’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 5 bearish.
Price Growth
HSY (@Food: Specialty/Candy) experienced а -4.78% price change this week, while MDLZ (@Food: Specialty/Candy) price change was -2.97% , and PEP (@Beverages: Non-Alcoholic) price fluctuated +0.39% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Food: Specialty/Candy industry was -2.68%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -2.45%, and the average quarterly price growth was +1.01%.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Beverages: Non-Alcoholic industry was -0.77%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -1.88%, and the average quarterly price growth was +2073.90%.
Reported Earning Dates
HSY is expected to report earnings on Apr 30, 2026.
MDLZ is expected to report earnings on Apr 28, 2026.
PEP is expected to report earnings on Jul 14, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Food: Specialty/Candy (-2.68% weekly)A specialty/candy manufacturer specializes in one or more of the following: chocolate, candies, pasta, condiments, seasonings, among other items. Hershey Company, McCormick & Company and J.M. Smucker Company are some of the major firms in this segment. Demand for this industry’s products comes from both institutions/restaurants as well as households.
@Beverages: Non-Alcoholic (-0.77% weekly)Non-alcoholic drinks include traces of alcohol or low alcohol content or without alcohol or alcohol removed. Functional Beverages, Carbonated Soft Drinks (CSDs), Sports Drinks, Fruit Beverages, and Bottled Water are some common types of non-alcoholic beverages. The largest segment in this market is soft drinks (think Pepsi and Coke). Many established companies in this space have also been stepping up production of low to zero-calorie varieties in recent years, to cater to a rising number of health-conscious consumers. Coca-Cola Company, Pepsico Inc, Keurig Dr Pepper Inc. and Monster Beverage Corporation are some major non-alcoholic beverage makers.
| HSY | MDLZ | PEP | |
| Capitalization | 39B | 73.5B | 216B |
| EBITDA | 1.94B | 4.97B | 15.5B |
| Gain YTD | 6.547 | 7.274 | 10.840 |
| P/E Ratio | 44.38 | 30.29 | 24.75 |
| Revenue | 11.7B | 38.5B | 93.9B |
| Total Cash | 926M | N/A | 9.53B |
| Total Debt | 5.74B | 21.8B | 49.9B |
HSY | MDLZ | PEP | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 7 | 21 | 55 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 34 Fair valued | 26 Undervalued | 26 Undervalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 71 | 81 | 59 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 46 | 72 | 21 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 59 | 59 | 32 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 7 | 23 | 42 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 75 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
MDLZ's Valuation (26) in the Food Major Diversified industry is in the same range as PEP (26) in the Beverages Non Alcoholic industry, and is in the same range as HSY (34) in the Food Specialty Or Candy industry. This means that MDLZ's stock grew similarly to PEP’s and similarly to HSY’s over the last 12 months.
PEP's Profit vs Risk Rating (59) in the Beverages Non Alcoholic industry is in the same range as HSY (71) in the Food Specialty Or Candy industry, and is in the same range as MDLZ (81) in the Food Major Diversified industry. This means that PEP's stock grew similarly to HSY’s and similarly to MDLZ’s over the last 12 months.
PEP's SMR Rating (21) in the Beverages Non Alcoholic industry is in the same range as HSY (46) in the Food Specialty Or Candy industry, and is somewhat better than the same rating for MDLZ (72) in the Food Major Diversified industry. This means that PEP's stock grew similarly to HSY’s and somewhat faster than MDLZ’s over the last 12 months.
PEP's Price Growth Rating (32) in the Beverages Non Alcoholic industry is in the same range as HSY (59) in the Food Specialty Or Candy industry, and is in the same range as MDLZ (59) in the Food Major Diversified industry. This means that PEP's stock grew similarly to HSY’s and similarly to MDLZ’s over the last 12 months.
HSY's P/E Growth Rating (7) in the Food Specialty Or Candy industry is in the same range as MDLZ (23) in the Food Major Diversified industry, and is somewhat better than the same rating for PEP (42) in the Beverages Non Alcoholic industry. This means that HSY's stock grew similarly to MDLZ’s and somewhat faster than PEP’s over the last 12 months.
| HSY | MDLZ | PEP | |
|---|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 53% | 4 days ago 71% | 3 days ago 54% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 66% | 3 days ago 51% | 3 days ago 39% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | N/A | 3 days ago 52% | 3 days ago 50% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | N/A | 3 days ago 58% | 3 days ago 43% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 55% | 3 days ago 56% | 3 days ago 42% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 53% | 3 days ago 51% | 3 days ago 44% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 11 days ago 64% | 3 days ago 53% | 11 days ago 39% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 56% | 7 days ago 50% | 5 days ago 44% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 70% | N/A | 3 days ago 52% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 57% | 3 days ago 39% | 3 days ago 35% |
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| 1 Day | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| ETFs / NAME | Price $ | Chg $ | Chg % |
| RSPN | 61.15 | 1.14 | +1.90% |
| Invesco S&P 500® Equal Wt Indls ETF | |||
| MRCP | 33.42 | 0.22 | +0.66% |
| PGIM S&P 500 Buffer 12 ETF - Mar | |||
| IVVM | 35.86 | 0.21 | +0.59% |
| iShares Large Cap Moderate Qt Ldrd ETF | |||
| VCSH | 79.52 | 0.20 | +0.25% |
| Vanguard Short-Term Corporate Bond ETF | |||
| FPWR | 37.27 | -0.23 | -0.62% |
| First Trust EIP Power Solutions ETF | |||
HSY and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, HSY has been loosely correlated with KHC. These tickers have moved in lockstep 58% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if HSY jumps, then KHC could also see price increases.