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HSY or MO or PM
Which Stock Would AI Choose? The Hershey Company (HSY) vs. Altria Group (MO) vs. Philip Morris International (PM) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- HSY leads YTD performance at over 18%, driven by strong growth in salty snacks and operational streamlining, though trading at a premium trailing P/E (price-to-earnings ratio, a valuation metric comparing stock price to earnings per share) of around 49.
- MO offers the highest dividend yield near 6.3%, with solid YTD gains around 17%, supported by resilient U.S. tobacco pricing despite volume declines.
- PM shows steady global expansion in smoke-free products, with a dividend yield of about 3.6% and a more moderate P/E near 22, amid recent monthly volatility.
- Consumer staples resilience favors tobacco giants MO and PM for income, while HSY appeals for growth momentum in recent market activity.
- Market caps highlight PM's scale at $256B, followed by MO ($112B) and HSY ($43B).
Introduction
This stock comparison examines HSY, a confectionery leader, against tobacco powerhouses MO and PM, all within the consumer staples sector known for defensive qualities amid market volatility. Investors seeking dividend income may favor the high-yield tobacco plays, while growth-oriented traders eye HSY's snack diversification. Recent performance reflects broader trends: pricing power offsetting volume pressures in tobacco and resilient demand for indulgent treats. This analysis aids in evaluating relative performance, valuation sensitivity, and market positioning for informed portfolio decisions.
HSY Overview and Recent Performance
The Hershey Company (HSY) dominates the U.S. chocolate and confectionery market, with growing salty snacks and protein portfolios. In recent weeks, shares have traded around $213, reflecting YTD gains exceeding 18% that outpace the S&P 500. Sentiment has been buoyed by operational unification under a single U.S. model to streamline efficiency and a projected 30% EPS (earnings per share) growth this year amid resilient demand despite cocoa costs. However, monthly dips of about 8% highlight sensitivity to commodity pressures and consumer spending shifts, with a trailing P/E near 49 signaling premium valuation for its stability (beta 0.11).
MO Overview and Recent Performance
Altria Group (MO) holds a commanding U.S. position in cigarettes via Marlboro and expanding oral nicotine like on! pouches. Shares hover near $67, with YTD returns around 17% amid broader market dips where MO often gained ground. Recent Q4 results showed flat earnings but reaffirmed 2026 guidance of $5.56-$5.72 adjusted EPS, supported by pricing offsetting cigarette volume declines. High dividend yield above 6% drives income appeal, though regulatory risks and slow smoke-free transition temper momentum, with trailing P/E around 16.
PM Overview and Recent Performance
Philip Morris International (PM) leads global tobacco with a pivot to smoke-free products like IQOS and ZYN, now over 40% of revenues. Trading near $165, YTD performance around 3-4% lags peers but reflects monthly volatility of about 12% down amid market headwinds. Recent Value Report highlighted 2025 Roadmap completion and 2030+ plan for sustainable growth, with strong smoke-free shipment increases. Dividend yield near 3.6% and P/E around 22 offer balanced appeal, bolstered by pricing power and international diversification.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
HSY’s model centers on branded confectionery with snack growth drivers, contrasting MO and PM’s tobacco reliance shifting to smoke-free. Valuation sensitivity shows HSY’s high P/E (49) versus MO (16) and PM (22), trading off growth for income. Recent momentum favors HSY YTD, but tobacco peers exhibit lower betas and higher yields (MO 6.3%, PM 3.6%). Risk factors include commodity costs for HSY and regulation for tobacco duo, with PM’s global exposure diversifying U.S.-centric MO. Sentiment tilts toward tobacco stability in volatile markets.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Tickeron’s AI currently favors MO for its superior YTD momentum, unmatched dividend yield, attractive valuation, and pricing resilience amid U.S. market challenges. While HSY shows strong trend consistency in growth categories and PM benefits from smoke-free catalysts, MO’s relative positioning offers probabilistic edge in the near term for income-focused strategies.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer. Disclaimers and Limitations
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
HSY’s FA Score shows that 1 FA rating(s) are green whileMO’s FA Score has 5 green FA rating(s), and PM’s FA Score reflects 3 green FA rating(s).
- HSY’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- MO’s FA Score: 5 green, 0 red.
- PM’s FA Score: 3 green, 2 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
HSY’s TA Score shows that 4 TA indicator(s) are bullish while MO’s TA Score has 6 bullish TA indicator(s), and PM’s TA Score reflects 5 bullish TA indicator(s).
- HSY’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 6 bearish.
- MO’s TA Score: 6 bullish, 3 bearish.
- PM’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 5 bearish.
Price Growth
HSY (@Food: Specialty/Candy) experienced а -1.88% price change this week, while MO (@Tobacco) price change was +2.46% , and PM (@Tobacco) price fluctuated +1.49% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Food: Specialty/Candy industry was +1.04%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -0.63%, and the average quarterly price growth was +4.29%.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Tobacco industry was +0.39%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +1.02%, and the average quarterly price growth was -8.00%.
Reported Earning Dates
HSY is expected to report earnings on Apr 30, 2026.
MO is expected to report earnings on Apr 30, 2026.
PM is expected to report earnings on Apr 22, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Food: Specialty/Candy (+1.04% weekly)A specialty/candy manufacturer specializes in one or more of the following: chocolate, candies, pasta, condiments, seasonings, among other items. Hershey Company, McCormick & Company and J.M. Smucker Company are some of the major firms in this segment. Demand for this industry’s products comes from both institutions/restaurants as well as households.
@Tobacco (+0.39% weekly)The industry is engaged in the growth, preparation for sale, advertisement, and distribution of tobacco and tobacco-related products like cigarettes. In 2017, tobacco companies spent an estimated $9.36 billion marketing cigarettes and smokeless tobacco in the U.S. – an amount that translates to more than $25 million each day (according to a CDC report). Philip Morris International Inc., Altria Group Inc., and British American Tobacco plc are some major cigar makers. In recent times, vaping or the use of e-cigarette (does not burn tobacco) is gaining momentum – several established cigarette makers are trying to expand their footprint in this new market.
| HSY | MO | PM | |
| Capitalization | 41B | 113B | 250B |
| EBITDA | 1.94B | 10.8B | 17.5B |
| Gain YTD | 11.901 | 18.816 | 0.924 |
| P/E Ratio | 46.62 | 16.35 | 22.09 |
| Revenue | 11.7B | 20.1B | 40.6B |
| Total Cash | 926M | N/A | N/A |
| Total Debt | 5.74B | 25.7B | 48.8B |
HSY | MO | PM | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 5 | 5 | 17 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 36 Fair valued | 10 Undervalued | 23 Undervalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 65 | 10 | 16 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 45 | 9 | 3 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 49 | 31 | 58 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 7 | 13 | 74 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 50 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
MO's Valuation (10) in the Tobacco industry is in the same range as PM (23) in the Tobacco industry, and is in the same range as HSY (36) in the Food Specialty Or Candy industry. This means that MO's stock grew similarly to PM’s and similarly to HSY’s over the last 12 months.
MO's Profit vs Risk Rating (10) in the Tobacco industry is in the same range as PM (16) in the Tobacco industry, and is somewhat better than the same rating for HSY (65) in the Food Specialty Or Candy industry. This means that MO's stock grew similarly to PM’s and somewhat faster than HSY’s over the last 12 months.
PM's SMR Rating (3) in the Tobacco industry is in the same range as MO (9) in the Tobacco industry, and is somewhat better than the same rating for HSY (45) in the Food Specialty Or Candy industry. This means that PM's stock grew similarly to MO’s and somewhat faster than HSY’s over the last 12 months.
MO's Price Growth Rating (31) in the Tobacco industry is in the same range as HSY (49) in the Food Specialty Or Candy industry, and is in the same range as PM (58) in the Tobacco industry. This means that MO's stock grew similarly to HSY’s and similarly to PM’s over the last 12 months.
HSY's P/E Growth Rating (7) in the Food Specialty Or Candy industry is in the same range as MO (13) in the Tobacco industry, and is significantly better than the same rating for PM (74) in the Tobacco industry. This means that HSY's stock grew similarly to MO’s and significantly faster than PM’s over the last 12 months.
| HSY | MO | PM | |
|---|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 63% | N/A | 1 day ago 73% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 69% | 1 day ago 44% | 1 day ago 51% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 45% | 1 day ago 65% | 1 day ago 42% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 6 days ago 48% | 1 day ago 57% | 1 day ago 45% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 55% | 1 day ago 51% | 1 day ago 56% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 52% | 1 day ago 47% | 1 day ago 51% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 64% | 3 days ago 53% | 3 days ago 57% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 11 days ago 54% | 11 days ago 37% | 23 days ago 47% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 65% | 1 day ago 59% | 5 days ago 68% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 57% | 1 day ago 22% | 1 day ago 41% |
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