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HSY or PM or UL
Which Stock Would AI Choose? The Hershey Company (HSY) vs. Philip Morris International (PM) vs. Unilever PLC (UL) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- HSY leads with strong recent momentum, up approximately 12% over the past 30 days and 19% YTD, driven by robust Q4 results and optimistic 2026 guidance projecting 4-5% sales growth and 30-35% EPS increase.
- PM shows resilience with YTD gains around 7%, supported by smoke-free product shifts, though recent earnings slightly missed on adjusted EPS amid regulatory scrutiny, with reaffirmed 2026 EPS growth of 11-13%.
- UL lags with flat YTD performance near 1% and recent weakness down 12% over the past month, guiding 2026 sales growth to the lower end of 4-6% amid softer U.S. and European demand.
- All three offer defensive consumer staples exposure with dividend yields around 2.5-2.7%, but HSY trades at a premium P/E of ~50 versus PM's ~23 and UL's lower multiple.
- Relative performance highlights HSY's confectionery pricing power contrasting PM's transition risks and UL's volume challenges post-portfolio reshaping.
Introduction
This stock comparison evaluates HSY, PM, and UL—key players in consumer staples amid shifting market dynamics. These companies offer stability through essential goods like confectionery, tobacco alternatives, and household products, appealing to dividend-focused investors and traders seeking relative performance in volatile environments. Recent earnings, guidance, and price behavior provide insights into growth drivers, margin pressures, and sector positioning, aiding decisions on market positioning and stock comparison.
HSY Overview and Recent Performance
The Hershey Company (HSY) dominates the U.S. confectionery market with iconic brands like Hershey's and Reese's, alongside salty snacks and pantry staples. In recent market activity, HSY shares have gained about 12% over the past 30 days and 19% YTD, reflecting strong Q4 2025 results with net sales up 7% to $3.09 billion and adjusted EPS of $1.71 beating estimates. Sentiment has improved on pricing power, holiday demand, and 2026 outlook for 4-5% sales growth, 400 basis points gross margin recovery, and 30-35% adjusted EPS rise, despite cocoa cost headwinds easing. Trading around $215 with a market cap of $44 billion, P/E near 50, and 2.7% dividend yield, HSY benefits from resilient consumer spending on treats.
PM Overview and Recent Performance
Philip Morris International (PM) leads in smoke-free products like IQOS and ZYN, transitioning from traditional cigarettes globally. Recent weeks saw PM shares dip post-Q4 earnings, with revenue at $10.36 billion in line but adjusted EPS slightly below at $1.69; YTD up 7% amid 13% one-year gains. Performance reflects regulatory hurdles and margin pressures, offset by reaffirmed 2026 adjusted EPS growth of 11-13% to $8.38-$8.53. At around $167, with $220 billion market cap, P/E ~23, and 2.5% yield, sentiment hinges on smoke-free acceleration despite delisting debt concerns.
UL Overview and Recent Performance
Unilever PLC (UL) spans beauty, personal care, home care, and nutrition with brands like Dove and Hellmann's, post-ice cream demerger. Shares have weakened recently, down 12% monthly and flat YTD at ~$64, pressured by U.S./Europe slowdowns despite Q4 underlying sales growth of 4.2%. Full-year 2025 underlying sales rose 3.5%, margins hit 20%, but 2026 guidance eyes lower-end 4-6% growth with modest margin gains. Market cap ~$142 billion, low beta of 0.26, and competitive yield underscore defensive appeal amid volume focus and productivity savings.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
HSY, PM, and UL anchor consumer staples but diverge in business models: HSY's North America-focused confectionery emphasizes pricing amid indulgence trends, PM pivots globally to reduced-risk nicotine, and UL diversifies post-demerger toward premium beauty/personal care. Growth drivers contrast HSY's 30%+ EPS outlook with PM's 12% and UL's modest sales. Recent momentum favors HSY, while UL faces volume risks. All share low betas for stability, but HSY risks commodity swings, PM regulatory exposure, and UL currency headwinds. Valuations show HSY priciest on growth premium versus peers' value; sentiment tilts toward HSY's catalysts amid staples rotation.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Tickeron’s AI currently favors HSY based on superior trend consistency, recent outperformance, and stronger 2026 catalysts like margin recovery and sales acceleration, positioning it ahead in relative performance versus PM's steady transition and UL's cautious guidance. Probability leans toward continued momentum for HSY in staples, though peers offer stability trade-offs.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer. Disclaimers and Limitations
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
HSY’s FA Score shows that 1 FA rating(s) are green whilePM’s FA Score has 3 green FA rating(s), and UL’s FA Score reflects 0 green FA rating(s).
- HSY’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- PM’s FA Score: 3 green, 2 red.
- UL’s FA Score: 0 green, 5 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
HSY’s TA Score shows that 4 TA indicator(s) are bullish while PM’s TA Score has 5 bullish TA indicator(s), and UL’s TA Score reflects 4 bullish TA indicator(s).
- HSY’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 6 bearish.
- PM’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 5 bearish.
- UL’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 5 bearish.
Price Growth
HSY (@Food: Specialty/Candy) experienced а -1.88% price change this week, while PM (@Tobacco) price change was +1.49% , and UL (@Household/Personal Care) price fluctuated +5.21% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Food: Specialty/Candy industry was +1.04%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -0.63%, and the average quarterly price growth was +4.29%.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Tobacco industry was +0.39%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +1.02%, and the average quarterly price growth was -8.00%.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Household/Personal Care industry was +2.76%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -0.20%, and the average quarterly price growth was -8.38%.
Reported Earning Dates
HSY is expected to report earnings on Apr 30, 2026.
PM is expected to report earnings on Apr 22, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Food: Specialty/Candy (+1.04% weekly)A specialty/candy manufacturer specializes in one or more of the following: chocolate, candies, pasta, condiments, seasonings, among other items. Hershey Company, McCormick & Company and J.M. Smucker Company are some of the major firms in this segment. Demand for this industry’s products comes from both institutions/restaurants as well as households.
@Tobacco (+0.39% weekly)The industry is engaged in the growth, preparation for sale, advertisement, and distribution of tobacco and tobacco-related products like cigarettes. In 2017, tobacco companies spent an estimated $9.36 billion marketing cigarettes and smokeless tobacco in the U.S. – an amount that translates to more than $25 million each day (according to a CDC report). Philip Morris International Inc., Altria Group Inc., and British American Tobacco plc are some major cigar makers. In recent times, vaping or the use of e-cigarette (does not burn tobacco) is gaining momentum – several established cigarette makers are trying to expand their footprint in this new market.
@Household/Personal Care (+2.76% weekly)Household/Personal Care companies sell products for home cleaning and/or personal hygiene and grooming purposes. Products of this industry include detergents, shampoos, soaps, cosmetics, fabric conditioners and infant care fragrances. Procter & Gamble, Unilever, Estee Lauder and Colgate-Palmolive are some of the biggest names in the business. A lot of the products become a necessary part of people’s daily routine, and therefore the industry is relatively less vulnerable to macroeconomic downturns. At the same time, product quality, consumer safety, and ease of use are extremely critical factors for a company to survive competition and earn recognition in this industry.
| HSY | PM | UL | |
| Capitalization | 41B | 250B | 126B |
| EBITDA | 1.94B | 17.5B | 11.3B |
| Gain YTD | 11.901 | 0.924 | -10.115 |
| P/E Ratio | 46.62 | 22.09 | 19.32 |
| Revenue | 11.7B | 40.6B | 59.8B |
| Total Cash | 926M | N/A | N/A |
| Total Debt | 5.74B | 48.8B | N/A |
HSY | PM | UL | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 5 | 17 | 51 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 36 Fair valued | 23 Undervalued | 40 Fair valued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 65 | 16 | 79 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 45 | 3 | 96 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 49 | 58 | 77 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 7 | 74 | 80 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 50 | 85 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
PM's Valuation (23) in the Tobacco industry is in the same range as HSY (36) in the Food Specialty Or Candy industry, and is in the same range as UL (40) in the Household Or Personal Care industry. This means that PM's stock grew similarly to HSY’s and similarly to UL’s over the last 12 months.
PM's Profit vs Risk Rating (16) in the Tobacco industry is somewhat better than the same rating for HSY (65) in the Food Specialty Or Candy industry, and is somewhat better than the same rating for UL (79) in the Household Or Personal Care industry. This means that PM's stock grew somewhat faster than HSY’s and somewhat faster than UL’s over the last 12 months.
PM's SMR Rating (3) in the Tobacco industry is somewhat better than the same rating for HSY (45) in the Food Specialty Or Candy industry, and is significantly better than the same rating for UL (96) in the Household Or Personal Care industry. This means that PM's stock grew somewhat faster than HSY’s and significantly faster than UL’s over the last 12 months.
HSY's Price Growth Rating (49) in the Food Specialty Or Candy industry is in the same range as PM (58) in the Tobacco industry, and is in the same range as UL (77) in the Household Or Personal Care industry. This means that HSY's stock grew similarly to PM’s and similarly to UL’s over the last 12 months.
HSY's P/E Growth Rating (7) in the Food Specialty Or Candy industry is significantly better than the same rating for PM (74) in the Tobacco industry, and is significantly better than the same rating for UL (80) in the Household Or Personal Care industry. This means that HSY's stock grew significantly faster than PM’s and significantly faster than UL’s over the last 12 months.
| HSY | PM | UL | |
|---|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 63% | 2 days ago 73% | 2 days ago 38% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 69% | 2 days ago 51% | 2 days ago 28% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 45% | 2 days ago 42% | N/A |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 6 days ago 48% | 2 days ago 45% | 2 days ago 40% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 55% | 2 days ago 56% | 2 days ago 41% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 52% | 2 days ago 51% | 2 days ago 45% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 64% | 3 days ago 57% | 3 days ago 42% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 11 days ago 54% | 23 days ago 47% | 10 days ago 41% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 65% | 5 days ago 68% | N/A |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 57% | 2 days ago 41% | 2 days ago 36% |
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PM and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, PM has been loosely correlated with BTI. These tickers have moved in lockstep 55% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if PM jumps, then BTI could also see price increases.
UL and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, UL has been loosely correlated with PG. These tickers have moved in lockstep 64% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if UL jumps, then PG could also see price increases.