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HWM or KTOS or LMT
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Howmet Aerospace (HWM) vs. Kratos Defense & Security Solutions (KTOS) vs. Lockheed Martin (LMT) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- HWM leads with robust revenue growth of 11% annually, driven by commercial aerospace recovery, but trades at a premium P/E ratio around 61.
- KTOS delivers explosive 122% one-year returns amid hypersonic and drone demand, yet shows high volatility with recent monthly declines over 20%.
- LMT offers stability with a massive backlog, 24% YTD gains, and attractive P/E near 28, bolstered by steady defense contracts.
- All three benefit from aerospace and defense tailwinds, but HWM and KTOS exhibit higher betas (1.19 and 1.15) compared to LMT's lower risk profile.
- Recent market activity reflects sector pullbacks, with one-month losses of 14%, 26%, and 10% for HWM, KTOS, and LMT, respectively.
- Valuation contrasts highlight LMT's value at 1.9x P/S versus growth premiums for peers.
Introduction
This comparison examines HWM, a leader in aerospace components; KTOS, focused on unmanned systems and hypersonics; and LMT, the premier defense prime contractor. These stocks operate in the resilient aerospace and defense sector, buoyed by rising global tensions, commercial aviation rebound, and sustained U.S. military spending. Traders seeking momentum in growth names like KTOS and investors prioritizing stability via LMT's backlog will find value here, alongside HWM's balanced exposure. Recent volatility underscores the need to weigh relative performance and catalysts in today's market environment.
HWM Overview and Recent Performance
Howmet Aerospace (HWM) specializes in engineered components like jet engine castings, fastening systems, and forged wheels for aerospace and transportation. With a market cap exceeding $90 billion, it derives over half its revenue from commercial aerospace amid strong jet demand recovery.
In recent market activity, HWM shares traded around $223, reflecting a 75% one-year gain but a 14% monthly pullback amid broader sector rotations. YTD performance stands at about 9-11%, outperforming the S&P 500. Revenue grew 11% to $8.25 billion TTM (trailing twelve months), with EPS up 32% to $3.71 and net margins at 18%, fueled by Q4 beats and 2026 guidance for 10% sales increase. Sentiment remains positive on earnings growth projections outpacing the industry at 40% annually, though premium valuation (P/E 61) and supply chain pressures temper near-term upside.
KTOS Overview and Recent Performance
Kratos Defense & Security Solutions (KTOS) develops unmanned aerial systems, hypersonic vehicles, propulsion, and C5ISR (command, control, communications, computers, combat, intelligence, surveillance, reconnaissance) technologies for national security. Market cap nears $12 billion, with segments in government solutions and unmanned systems serving DoD and allies.
Recent weeks saw KTOS around $65, down sharply 9-26% monthly and 14% YTD after peaking at $134, despite 122% one-year surge. Revenue rose 18.5% to $1.35 billion TTM, EPS to $0.13, with Q4 beats on $345 million sales. Key drivers include $49 million Navy contracts for rocket motors and hypersonic revenue doubling to $400 million in 2026, boosting sentiment on drone ramps like Valkyrie. High P/E over 500 signals growth expectations, offset by volatility (beta 1.15).
LMT Overview and Recent Performance
Lockheed Martin (LMT), the world's largest defense contractor, produces fighter jets like the F-35, missiles, and rotary systems across aeronautics, missiles, rotary, and space segments. Its $138 billion market cap underscores scale, with 73% U.S. government revenue.
Shares hover near $599, up 24-28% YTD and 33-43% annually, with recent dips of 2-10% monthly amid profit-taking. Revenue hit $71 billion in 2024 (up 5%), with strong backlogs ensuring visibility; P/E around 28 reflects stability (beta 0.23). Performance benefits from F-35 ramps, precision strike expansions, and geopolitical demand, maintaining analyst favor despite sector rotations.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
HWM, KTOS, and LMT share aerospace-defense exposure but diverge in models: HWM's components thrive on commercial cycles (53% revenue), KTOS targets agile drones/hypersonics, and LMT excels in scaled platforms with $150B+ backlog.
Growth favors HWM (11%) and KTOS (18.5%) over LMT's steady 5%, but LMT wins on visibility. Momentum shows KTOS (122% 1Y) leading long-term, LMT (24% YTD) short-term, versus peers' volatility. Risks include HWM's cyclicality (beta 1.19), KTOS's execution (beta 1.15), and LMT's costs (beta 0.23). Valuations: LMT cheapest (P/E 28, P/S 1.9), HWM mid (P/E 61), KTOS premium (P/E 500+). Sentiment tilts to defense stability amid budgets, balancing KTOS' upside.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Tickeron’s AI currently favors LMT for superior trend consistency, vast backlog visibility, and relative stability (low beta) amid volatility. While HWM offers growth catalysts and KTOS high-momentum potential, LMT's valuation and defense positioning suggest higher probabilistic outperformance based on observable sector dynamics.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer. Disclaimers and Limitations
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
HWM’s FA Score shows that 4 FA rating(s) are green whileKTOS’s FA Score has 1 green FA rating(s), and LMT’s FA Score reflects 3 green FA rating(s).
- HWM’s FA Score: 4 green, 1 red.
- KTOS’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- LMT’s FA Score: 3 green, 2 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
HWM’s TA Score shows that 5 TA indicator(s) are bullish while KTOS’s TA Score has 6 bullish TA indicator(s), and LMT’s TA Score reflects 3 bullish TA indicator(s).
- HWM’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 4 bearish.
- KTOS’s TA Score: 6 bullish, 2 bearish.
- LMT’s TA Score: 3 bullish, 6 bearish.
Price Growth
HWM (@Aerospace & Defense) experienced а +1.20% price change this week, while KTOS (@Aerospace & Defense) price change was +0.92% , and LMT (@Aerospace & Defense) price fluctuated -3.51% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Aerospace & Defense industry was +4.81%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +11.73%, and the average quarterly price growth was +29.52%.
Reported Earning Dates
HWM is expected to report earnings on May 07, 2026.
KTOS is expected to report earnings on May 06, 2026.
LMT is expected to report earnings on Apr 23, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Aerospace & Defense (+4.81% weekly)Aerospace & Defense is one of largest industries in the U.S., mainly comprising the following areas: commercial airliners, military aircraft, missiles, space, and general aviation. Focused heavily on research & development, it is also one of the fastest growing industries. Military aircraft has the largest market share in the industry’s sales, followed by space systems, civil aircraft, and missiles. Aerospace exports, directly and indirectly, support more jobs than the export of any other commodity, according to a study by the U.S. Department of Commerce. Boeing Company, Lockheed Martin Corporation and General Electric Company are some of the most prominent players in this space.
| HWM | KTOS | LMT | |
| Capitalization | 102B | 13.3B | 136B |
| EBITDA | 2.27B | 103M | 8.73B |
| Gain YTD | 24.786 | -6.481 | 23.082 |
| P/E Ratio | 68.92 | 546.08 | 27.56 |
| Revenue | 8.25B | 1.35B | 75B |
| Total Cash | 742M | 561M | 4.12B |
| Total Debt | 3.21B | 146M | 21.7B |
HWM | KTOS | LMT | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 26 | 6 | 54 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 73 Overvalued | 94 Overvalued | 13 Undervalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 3 | 61 | 35 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 31 | 89 | 14 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 10 | 63 | 52 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 22 | 14 | 33 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 75 | n/a | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
LMT's Valuation (13) in the Aerospace And Defense industry is somewhat better than the same rating for HWM (73) in the null industry, and is significantly better than the same rating for KTOS (94) in the Aerospace And Defense industry. This means that LMT's stock grew somewhat faster than HWM’s and significantly faster than KTOS’s over the last 12 months.
HWM's Profit vs Risk Rating (3) in the null industry is in the same range as LMT (35) in the Aerospace And Defense industry, and is somewhat better than the same rating for KTOS (61) in the Aerospace And Defense industry. This means that HWM's stock grew similarly to LMT’s and somewhat faster than KTOS’s over the last 12 months.
LMT's SMR Rating (14) in the Aerospace And Defense industry is in the same range as HWM (31) in the null industry, and is significantly better than the same rating for KTOS (89) in the Aerospace And Defense industry. This means that LMT's stock grew similarly to HWM’s and significantly faster than KTOS’s over the last 12 months.
HWM's Price Growth Rating (10) in the null industry is somewhat better than the same rating for LMT (52) in the Aerospace And Defense industry, and is somewhat better than the same rating for KTOS (63) in the Aerospace And Defense industry. This means that HWM's stock grew somewhat faster than LMT’s and somewhat faster than KTOS’s over the last 12 months.
KTOS's P/E Growth Rating (14) in the Aerospace And Defense industry is in the same range as HWM (22) in the null industry, and is in the same range as LMT (33) in the Aerospace And Defense industry. This means that KTOS's stock grew similarly to HWM’s and similarly to LMT’s over the last 12 months.
| HWM | KTOS | LMT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | N/A | 3 days ago 72% | N/A |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 54% | 3 days ago 82% | 3 days ago 45% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 76% | 3 days ago 78% | 3 days ago 52% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 76% | 3 days ago 87% | 3 days ago 38% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 72% | 3 days ago 79% | 3 days ago 49% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 70% | 3 days ago 73% | 3 days ago 54% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 6 days ago 70% | 5 days ago 79% | 14 days ago 54% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 51% | 3 days ago 72% | 3 days ago 47% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 53% | 3 days ago 77% | 3 days ago 55% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 42% | 3 days ago 78% | 3 days ago 52% |
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KTOS and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, KTOS has been loosely correlated with KRMN. These tickers have moved in lockstep 60% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if KTOS jumps, then KRMN could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To KTOS | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| KTOS | 100% | -4.60% | ||
| KRMN - KTOS | 60% Loosely correlated | -4.93% | ||
| AVAV - KTOS | 59% Loosely correlated | -5.23% | ||
| MRCY - KTOS | 56% Loosely correlated | -1.01% | ||
| DRS - KTOS | 55% Loosely correlated | -0.82% | ||
| HII - KTOS | 52% Loosely correlated | -0.34% | ||
More | ||||
LMT and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, LMT has been loosely correlated with GD. These tickers have moved in lockstep 49% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if LMT jumps, then GD could also see price increases.